Thursday, September 13, 2012

The Question, Thursday 9/13/12: Glee-falling?


For the next few weeks (at least), I'm gonna try to enhance the nightly ratings review by having a nightly ratings preview to bounce off of. Enter The Question, a quick and easy daily look at the upcoming evening's most significant number. I'll list some numbers I find pertinent, I'll write a paragraph (maybe two) about the situation, and I'll make a prediction. I encourage you to comment with whether you think the number will be Over or Under my prediction. I might make some kind of game out of the over/under portion if I ever get to a point where several people are participating.

Here's The Question for Thursday, September 13, 2012. Season three of Glee saw the one-time phenomenon begin what feels like a pretty rapid flame-out. Whether the end actually comes this season may depend in part on how Fox's other dramas do, but we're skipping ahead a few steps. For now, the question is how far Glee declines on premiere night. Will the X Factor lead-in stabilize this show, or will it continue Glee-falling?

Glee premieres Glee finales
3.5 (9/9/09)
5.6 (9/21/10)
4.0 (9/20/11)
4.7 (6/8/10)
4.6 (5/24/11)
2.9 (5/22/12)

I've gone on record saying I think this is gonna be a pretty rough season for Glee. With that being said, I also feel those low-2 levels I predicted won't really show up in full force until Grey's Anatomy and then all the election/baseball preemptions set in. Heck, even Fringe hit a 3.0 in this slot against pre-premiere competition three years ago! (Then it promptly dropped to 2.3 the next week when everyone else showed up.) The X Factor lead-in will be smaller than I expected, and there's kind of a lot of competition: Got Talent finale, Thursday Night Football, Big Brother. But some of those shows won't have much impact on Glee. Last season's premiere fell well behind the prior finale, but I think the Thursday move puts Glee in a slightly better situation at least for this one week.

Over/Under: 2.8.

9 comments:

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I'm going to go w/ the over SLIGHTLY on this one. But I'm not confident. I just think that it'll be able to self-start on its own w/out the competition more than any sort of propping up c/o X Factor, especially after last night.

Spot said...

I'm going to go over as well: 3.1.

Spot said...

I've been burned by going over too many times this week. Under at 2.6.

Spot said...

I suppose The X Factor is bound to bounce back with no The Voice today, so I can see TXF at something like 3.8. Glee retention? Have no idea, anywhere between 60% and 80%. Let's say 70% for 2.7. Under, but very close call.

Spot said...

Under 2.7

Spot said...

I'm voting over, albeit barely, at 3.0. The X-Factor grew in its second hour without facing The Voice last night, so Glee will have a lead-in. Plus it's debuting in a higher HUT hour without its largest demo competitor in Grey's Anatomy.

Spot said...

over, 2.9 but only because there no competition, and some people may be curious enough to check it out

Spot said...

Under. "Rapid flame-out" is absolutely on target, and CBS is moving some heavy-hitting, highly-rated shows to Thursday as well. Last year, Glee was memorable only for its dreadful writing and the effect it had on some talented performers. Since last season ended, the producers have managed to participate in misleading fans and generating plenty of on-line fan hostility through their less than tactful treatment of certain former and current cast members.

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