Thursday, September 27, 2012

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/25/12


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Fox had a mediocre start to their two-hour comedy block, as New Girl only managed to finish on par with last season's finale at 8:00 and at 9:00, and of course it was a shadow of last season's massive premiere. Ben and Kate at 8:30 and The Mindy Project at 9:30 weren't big surprises retention-wise, but since New Girl did about 15% worse than I expected, so did they. While Mindy may look stronger out of the gate, True2 argues they're almost identical because there was so much more competition (and less viewing) at 8:30 than at 9:30. Underwhelming, but they're not The Mob Doctor. So Fox is probably going to be pretty patient because they don't have much choice.
  • CBS at least had one sigh of relief, as NCIS and NCIS: Los Angeles were very close to year-ago levels. So there's some consolation that the procedural isn't dead following the previous night's Hawaii Five-0 debacle. But the premiere of Vegas skewed ancient, edging the year-ago Unforgettable premiere in viewers but 14% weaker in the demo. It also took an atypically ugly drop at the half (preliminary 2.7 -> 2.2).
  • NBC took a larger week-to-week hit on Tuesday than on Monday, especially with Go On, which lost about 20% in its first duel with New Girl. The Voice was also down double-digits, but its massive timeslot improvement helped NBC again finish as the night's only year-to-year gainer. The New Normal and Parenthood held up a little better against less intimidating opposition.
  • On ABC, the Dancing with the Stars problems continue, as the show was again down in the one-third range year-to-year. (Though it's worth noting it was only down 16% when compared against the two-hour timeslot average, which last year included an hour designated a DWTS "special." My understanding is the programming wasn't all that different from what it was last year, so make of that what you will.) Private Practice came back at about its spring Tuesday average (but way behind its Thursday post-Grey's Anatomy premiere).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue2
Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars Tue 11.79 2.1 n/an/a 1/1 -28% +65% -16% 1.99
Private Practice 6.45 1.9 n/an/a 1/1 -32% +15% -14% 1.70
NCIS 20.48 4.1 n/an/a 1/1 -5% +156% -5% 4.30
NCIS: Los Angeles 16.74 3.4 n/an/a 1/1 -6% +127% -4% 2.56
Vegas 14.85 2.5 n/an/a 1/1 n/a +72% -14% 2.02
The Voice Tue 11.57 4.2 -11%n/a 2/4 n/a -11% +87% 4.39
Go On 6.90 2.7 -21%-11% 3/3 n/a -21% +17% 1.90
The New Normal 5.09 2.0 -9%-21% 4/4 n/a -9% -17% 1.65
Parenthood 4.85 1.8 +0%-9% 2/3 -14% +3% -14% 1.63
New Girl 5.35 2.8 n/an/a 1/1 -42% +87% -30% 3.17
Ben and Kate 4.21 2.1 n/an/a 1/1 n/a +40% -48% 1.98
New Girl 5.18 2.8 +0%n/a 1/2 -42% +65% -42% 2.37
The Mindy Project 4.67 2.4 n/an/a 1/1 n/a +26% -23% 1.97
Hart of Dixie (SR) 0.52 0.2 -20% -71% 0.29
The Next (R) 0.49 0.2 +0% -79% 0.23

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

10 comments:

Spot said...

Shoulda put Vegas on at 9, CBS.

Spot said...

Vegas would get NCIS:LA numbers at 9, but NCIS:LA would fall apart without strong lead in. I suspect it would stumble much worse than H50.

Spot said...

2.0 is the new normal.

Spot said...

This looks like the end of the network period drama. Playboy Club DOA. Pan Am in the toilet after three weeks. Vegas so-so premiere with a very old skew. If it takes a normal 15% drop, it's down to 2.1, which is where Unforgettable ended up, and it got cancelled...for a while. I doubt it will hold there, which would make CBS 0-for-2 in terms of premieres, which has to worry them.

Spot said...

Wow. I'm glad you're only counting whether or not we said "over/under" in the game, because my reasoning on why Vegas was going to go under was dead off. Not only were NCIS and NCIS:LA still alive and kicking (more or less) but Vegas didn't turn around nearly enough of the hype into actual demo viewers, it seems. I guess the CBS Tuesdays @ 10 curse lives yet again.

Spot said...

I doubt vegas would get a NCIS LA number at 9, I mean theres no doubt that original NCIS anchors the entire night, but I would there really be that big a flow on effect to just any show?

Spot said...

NCIS is looking more and more like and american idol type show which kills other shows, I'm not saying it's there yet (and probably has different key demos from a lot of other shows on the night) but its looking like one

Spot said...

This fall is MUCH more rough than last fall.

Spot said...

You make a good point. One I think most network execs subscribe to, hence why "good but not great" pairings like the NCIS franchise or CSI/Trace tend to stay together for long periods of time.

Spot said...

My point is: CBS and Vegas would earn few ticks with moving it to 9PM ... but CBS would lose double more with NCIS:LA in turn exiled to some lower viewed 10PM slot (plus no great lead-in anymore). So I fully understand them.
I do believe Vegas at 9PM would get similar numbers this season as NCIS:LA. Though it's not fair to compare, "LA" is already in 3rd season.

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