Tuesday, August 31, 2010

List of Fall Preview Specials

Each year, most/all broadcast networks produce a half-hour special that previews their fall lineup, usually focusing heavily on the new shows. These specials are pretty low-profile and usually not very entertaining, but I find the various odd ways they're scheduled kinda interesting. Here's the info I've been able to come up with:

ABC has two separate half-hour preview specials this year, one for comedies (ABC 2010 Red Carpet Premiere Event: Laugh On) and one for dramas (ABC 2010 Red Carpet Premiere Event: No Ordinary Dramas). They air locally from August 28 through September 19, and also nationally on Sunday, September 19 back-to-back at 5:00pm and 5:30pm Eastern on ABC. EDIT: They are also now available on abc.com. (Link)

The CBS Fall Preview, hosted by The Defenders stars Jim Belushi and Jerry O'Connell, airs nationally on Monday, September 6th at 8:30/7:30c on CBS. (PRESS RELEASE)

The NBC Primetime Preview Show is currently available on hulu (Link). It has no national NBC airings but will be on affiliates and various NBCU networks from August 8 through September 27. Upcoming airings on my TiVo Guide include a 12:30pm Eastern airing on Friday, September 3 on Bravo and a 6:30pm Eastern airing on Monday, September 6 on CNBC.

The 2010 Fox Fall Preview, hosted by the cast of Bones, appears to be an affiliate-only thing like the CW's, but you can also see it online at the website of the FOX 23 affiliate in Maine.

The CW 2010 Fall Preview Special seems to be another affiliate-only program, so check local listings. I caught it earlier this week. It's hosted by Kristoffer Polaha of Life Unexpected and Robert Buckley of One Tree Hill and focuses on (in order) The Vampire Diaries, Hellcats, Nikita, and the final season of Smallville.

22 Hours of Primetime, Tuesday 8/7c

Today, my fall preview looks at Tuesday 8/7c. The arrival of Glee will throw another wrinkle into an hour usually dominated in the 4th quarter by NCIS and The Biggest Loser.

Monday, August 30, 2010

First T'Weaks

I intended for this post to go up no less than 3 months ago, and I wrote almost all of this back then, but other stuff got in the way of me finishing. With the new season getting somewhat near, though, perhaps it's an appropriate time to start gearing up for one of my in-season projects: First Two Weeks, in which I project the fate of new shows based on their first two data points. (More info at the top of my last post on the topic.) I've been looking for a way to tweak the system, hence the lame pun for this post's title. One last time for 2009-10, here's all the info, with everything greened and redded now that upfronts have passed.

The Vampire Diaries 6.3*
V 5.2
The Cleveland Show 4.9
NCIS: LA 4.4
Cougar Town 4.4
Modern Family 4.2
Flashforward 4.0
Melrose Place 3.9*
Community 3.8
Life Unexpected 3.6*

Glee 3.5
Accidentally on Purpose 3.3
The Good Wife 3.1
Parenthood 3.1
Eastwick 3.0
Human Target 2.9
Romantically Challenged 2.9
Past Life 2.8
The Middle 2.6
The Forgotten 2.6

Mercy 2.3
Trauma 2.2
Hank 2.1
Sons of Tucson 2.1
Three Rivers 1.9
The Deep End 1.8
The Beautiful Life: TBL 1.8*
Happy Town 1.7
Miami Medical 1.6
Brothers 1.0

*-Although A18-49 isn't necessarily the "CW demo," in an attempt to put them on a level playing field with the big 4, I've taken the A18-49 premiere number for the CW shows and multiplied it by 3.

The Good Wife +3%
The Deep End even
Accidentally on Purpose -6%
Flashforward -8%
Glee -9%
Mercy -9%
Modern Family -10%
Sons of Tucson -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%

Romantically Challenged -10%
Three Rivers -11%
Miami Medical -13%
Cougar Town -14%
The Vampire Diaries -16%
Parenthood -16%
Human Target -17%
The Beautiful Life: TBL -18%
The Middle -19%
Brothers - 20%

Trauma -23%
The Forgotten -23%
Eastwick -23%
Hank -24%
Life Unexpected -24%
V -27%
Happy Town -29%
Community -29%
Melrose Place -31%
Past Life -50%

EXCELLENT (6 points) - NCIS: Los Angeles, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show
GOOD ENOUGH (5 points) - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town, Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife
BORDERLINE (4 points) - V, Mercy, The Deep End, Melrose Place, Human Target, Parenthood, Community, The Middle, Romantically Challenged, Life Unexpected, Sons of Tucson
IN TROUBLE (2-3 points) - TBL:TBL, Eastwick, Three Rivers, Past Life, Miami Medical, The Forgotten, Brothers (3 points), Trauma, Hank, Happy Town (2 points)

The only part of this system where there were multiple problems, in my opinion, was the "borderline" category, which was a combination of legitimately borderline shows as well as complete flops that ended up with no shot at renewal, including Melrose Place, Mercy, The Deep End, and Sons of Tucson.

Now, in three of those four cases, the story was the same; awful premiere that pretty much doomed it, followed by excellent retention of that awfulness. How to correct that problem? The best solution seems to be to increase the importance of the premiere. So now, the premiere gives point totals worth 5-3-1, while the retention still gives 3-2-1. That gives us this:

EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - NCIS:LA, Flashforward, Modern Family, The Cleveland Show, 7 - The Vampire Diaries, Cougar Town
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Accidentally on Purpose, Glee, The Good Wife, V, Melrose Place, Community, Life Unexpected
5 - Romantically Challenged, Human Target, The Middle, Parenthood
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Mercy, The Deep End, Sons of Tucson, Past Life, The Forgotten, Eastwick 3 - Miami Medical, The Beautiful Life: TBL, Three Rivers, Brothers 2 - Trauma, Hank, Happy Town

So now "In Trouble" has several more shows but is still batting a thousand, while the "safe" category only has Flashforward, probably the only show that truly could not have possibly been given the correct prognosis based on its first two data points. 8 of 11 shows in "Borderline" got renewed, but that may well just be indicative of how renewal-heavy this year was. 13 of 30 newbies got renewed, or 43%. Well over the one-third number that is kinda the conventional wisdom.

How to parse the 11 shows in borderline? I tried breaking it down by network:
ABC (renewed 4/11)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - Flashforward, Modern Family 7 - Cougar Town
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - V
5 - Romantically Challenged, The Middle
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - The Deep End, The Forgotten, Eastwick 2 - Hank, Happy Town

CBS (renewed 2/5)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - NCIS:LA
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Accidentally on Purpose, The Good Wife

IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 3 - Miami Medical, Three Rivers

NBC (renewed 2/4)
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Community
5 - Parenthood
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Mercy 2 - Trauma

FOX (renewed 3/6)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 8 - The Cleveland Show
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Glee
5 - Human Target
IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 4 - Sons of Tucson, Past Life 3 - Brothers

CW (renewed 2/4)
EXCELLENT (7-8 points) 7 - The Vampire Diaries
BORDERLINE (5-6 points) 6 - Melrose Place, Life Unexpected

IN TROUBLE (2-4 points) 3 - The Beautiful Life: TBL

Now, I think this breakdown helps a lot, and the only real problem is that the % of shows renewed was pretty high this year. But you can still say that on each network, a little more than the top third did get renewed. With one exception (pesky little Flashforward) every single network has a certain point at which the shows just stop getting renewed. The network breakdown reduces the bubble from 11 shows to just six shows where there was a renewal and a cancellation on the same point level: Middle/Romantically, Good Wife/AoP, and LUX/Melrose. The one common thread out of the renewed shows seems to be that they had better critical acclaim/buzz, and I think that's often a good thing to look at as a deciding factor. I thought about trying to actually factor that in, but it's tough to do from a quantitative standpoint. (I looked at using something like Metacritic scores, but ultimately decided that was just making the whole thing way too convoluted for now.)

So the changes to the system for next season will be more importance on the premiere (5-3-1 scores vs. 3-2-1), and perhaps I'll look at the breakdowns by network more frequently. I'm also going to try and find some kind of multiplier that will let me use W18-34 rather than A18-49 for the Sampling portion... we'll see about that one.

The 2010-11 edition of the First Two Weeks system returns in about two and a half weeks with early-premiering CW shows Hellcats and Nikita. As with last year, I probably won't start launching into the lists and scoring portion until I have quite a few shows already done, most likely toward the end of the second week of the regular season, or about a month from now.

22 Hours of Primetime, Monday 8/7c

Today, my fall preview looks at Monday 8/7c. Lots of veteran shows in this hour, as third-season 90210 will be the hour's youngest show.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

22 Hours of Primetime, Sunday 7/6c

Today, my fall preview kicks off with Sunday 7/6c. It's a pretty low-priority timeslot, and if you can find a mainstay, you keep it there. All of the big 4 have aired mostly the same stuff in this timeslot across the time period I'm following.

It's my 2nd annual fall preview!

Long time no blog! NOT.

I'm back already with the second year of the project previously known as 19 Timeslots but now known as 22 Hours of Primetime (or 22 Hours for short), in which I look at the recent history of each hour of primetime TV as a preview of the fall season. I got a little burnt out on The War of 18-49, and TVByTheNumbers has started their own, similar version of this project which will be seen by hundreds of times as many people, but after some consideration I decided to go ahead and do it again this year. My posts have more of a historical bent, all of the ratings digging/averaging I would do is already done, the majority of the prose is already written (imported from the 2009 edition), it's cool to have yearly traditions, and I don't particularly feel like going dark for the last three weeks of summer when there isn't much TV on. Also, it fits brilliantly between now and the regular season, and I'll be able to say I did a blog post of substance on every day from July 5 through the eve of premiere week on September 19!

The intro to the 2009 version still serves as a reasonable enough description of how this will go down, including the inspiration behind the idea and why the grammar can get spotty. 

These are the additions/changes for 2010:

Saturday, August 28, 2010

The War of 18-49 Index

The War of 18-49 began in summer 2010 with me digging up old articles and press releases to fill out the ratings history of TV shows whose pasts I was unfamilar with. Now it's this blog's biggest ongoing project. Except in a very few cases where the early data isn't available, I trace veteran primetime shows' adults 18-49 ratings history all the way back to the beginning and look at how the ratings have evolved.


911 (Fox/ABC, 2018-)
All American (CW, 2018-)
The Amazing Race (CBS, 2001-)
America's Got Talent (NBC, 2006-)
American Dad! (Fox/TBS, 2005-)
American Horror Story (FX, 2011-)
American Idol (Fox/ABC, 2002-)
American Ninja Warrior (NBC, 2012-)
The Bachelor/The Bachelorette (ABC, 2002-)
Big Brother (CBS, 2000-)
The Blacklist (NBC, 2013-)
Blue Bloods (CBS, 2010-)
Bob's Burgers (Fox, 2011-)
Bob Hearts Abishola (CBS, 2019-)
Chicago Fire (NBC, 2012-)
Chicago Med (NBC, 2015-)
Chicago PD (NBC, 2014-)
The Conners (ABC, 2018-)
Dancing with the Stars (ABC, 2005-)
Family Guy (Fox, 1999-)
FBI (CBS, 2018-)
FBI: Most Wanted (CBS, 2020-)
The Flash (CW, 2014-)
The Good Doctor (ABC, 2017-)
Grey's Anatomy (ABC, 2005-)
Hell's Kitchen (Fox, 2005-)
Kitchen Nightmares (Fox, 2007-)
Law and Order (NBC, 1990-)
Law and Order: SVU (NBC, 1999-)
Magnum P.I. (CBS/NBC, 2018-)
The Masked Singer (Fox, 2019-)
MasterChef/MasterChef Junior (Fox, 2010-)
NCIS (CBS, 2003-)
The Neighborhood (CBS, 2018-)
The Rookie (ABC, 2018-)
S.W.A.T. (CBS, 2017-)
Shark Tank (ABC, 2009-)
The Simpsons (Fox, 1989-)
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox, 2005-)
Station 19 (ABC, 2018-)
Survivor (CBS, 2000-)
Undercover Boss (CBS, 2010-)
The Voice (NBC, 2011-)
The Walking Dead (AMC, 2010-)
Wipeout/Winter Wipeout (ABC/TBS/TEENNICK, 2008-)
Young Sheldon (CBS, 2017-)


The 100 (CW, 2014-2020)
2 Broke Girls (CBS, 2011-2017)
24 (Fox, 2001-2014)
30 Rock (NBC, 2006-2013)
8 Simple Rules (ABC, 2002-2005)
90210 (CW, 2008-2013)
A Million Little Things (ABC, 2018-2023)
According to Jim (ABC, 2001-2009)
Agents of SHIELD (ABC, 2013-2020)
Alias (ABC, 2001-2006)
America's Next Top Model (UPN/CW/VH1, 2003-2018)
American Housewife (ABC, 2016-2021)
The Americans (FX, 2013-2018)
The Apprentice/Celebrity Apprentice (NBC, 2004-2017)
Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (Fox, 2007-2015)
Army Wives (Lifetime, 2007-2013)
Arrow (CW, 2012-2020)
Bates Motel (A&E, 2013-2017)
Beauty and the Beast (CW, 2012-2016)
The Bernie Mac Show (Fox, 2001-2006)
Better Off Ted (ABC, 2009-2010)*
The Big Bang Theory (CBS, 2007-2019)
The Biggest Loser (NBC, 2004-2016)
Black-ish (ABC, 2014-2022)
Black Lightning (CW, 2018-2021)
Blindspot (NBC, 2015-2020)
Boardwalk Empire (HBO, 2010-2014)
Bones (Fox, 2005-2017)
Boston Legal (ABC, 2004-2008)
Breaking Bad (AMC, 2008-2013)
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox/NBC, 2013-2021)
Brothers and Sisters (ABC, 2006-2011)
Bull (CBS, 2016-2022)
Burn Notice (USA, 2007-2013)
Castle (ABC, 2009-2016)
Charmed (CW, 1999-2022)
Chuck (NBC, 2007-2012)
The Cleveland Show (Fox, 2009-2013)
Cold Case (CBS, 2003-2010)
Community (NBC, 2009-2014)
Cougar Town (ABC/TBS, 2009-2015)
Covert Affairs (USA, 2010-2014)
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW, 2015-2019)
Criminal Minds (CBS, 2005-2020)
CSI (CBS, 2000-2015)
CSI: Miami (CBS, 2002-2012)
CSI: NY (CBS, 2004-2013)
Deal or No Deal (NBC/CNBC, 2005-2019)
Desperate Housewives (ABC, 2004-2012)
Dollhouse (Fox, 2009-2010)*
Drop Dead Diva (Lifetime, 2009-2014)
Dynasty (CW, 2017-2022)
Elementary (CBS, 2012-2019)
Empire (Fox, 2015-2020)
ER (NBC, 1994-2009)
Everwood (CW, 2002-2006)
Everybody Hates Chris (UPN/CW, 2005-2009)
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (ABC, 2003-2012)
Falling Skies (TNT, 2011-2015)
Flashpoint (CBS, 2008-2011)
Fresh Off the Boat (ABC, 2015-2020)
Friday Night Lights (NBC, 2006-2011)
Friends (NBC, 1994-2004)*
Fringe (Fox, 2008-2013)
The Game (CW/BET, 2006-2015)
Game of Thrones (HBO/HBO PRIME, 2011-2019)
Ghost Whisperer (CBS, 2005-2010)
The Glades (A&E, 2010-2013)
Glee (Fox, 2009-2015)
The Goldbergs (ABC, 2013-2023)
Good Girls (NBC, 2018-2021)
The Good Place (NBC, 2016-2020)
The Good Wife (CBS, 2009-2016)
Gossip Girl (CW, 2007-2012)
Gotham (Fox, 2014-2019)
Grimm (NBC, 2011-2017)
Hart of Dixie (CW, 2011-2015)
Hawaii Five-0 (CBS, 2010-2020)
Hell on Wheels (AMC, 2011-2016)
Heroes (NBC, 2006-2010)
Homeland (Showtime, 2011-2020)
House (Fox, 2004-2012)
How I Met Your Mother (CBS, 2005-2014)
How to Get Away with Murder (ABC, 2014-2020)
iZombie (CW, 2015-2019)
Jane the Virgin (CW, 2014-2019)
Jericho (CBS, 2006-2008)*
Jersey Shore (MTV, 2009-2012)
Justified (FX, 2010-2015)
Last Comic Standing (NBC, 2003-2015)
The Last Man on Earth (Fox, 2015-2018)
Last Man Standing (ABC/Fox, 2011-2021)
Law and Order: CI (NBC/USA, 2001-2011)
Legacies (CW, 2018-2022)
Legends of Tomorrow (CW, 2016-2022)
Leverage (TNT, 2008-2012)
Lie to Me (Fox, 2009-2011)*
Life (NBC, 2007-2009)*
Life in Pieces (CBS, 2015-2019)
Lost (ABC, 2004-2010)
MacGyver (CBS, 2016-2021)
Madam Secretary (CBS, 2014-2019)
Man with a Plan (CBS, 2016-2020)
Medium (NBC/CBS, 2005-2011)
The Mentalist (CBS, 2008-2015)
The Middle (ABC, 2009-2018)
Mike and Molly (CBS, 2010-2016)
Mistresses (ABC, 2013-2016)
Modern Family (ABC, 2009-2020)
Mom (CBS, 2013-2021)
Moonlight (CBS, 2007-2008)*
My Name is Earl (NBC, 2005-2009)
Nashville (ABC/CMT, 2012-2018)
NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS, 2009-2023)
NCIS: New Orleans (CBS, 2014-2021)
The New Adventures of Old Christine (CBS, 2006-2010)
New Amsterdam (NBC, 2018-2023)
New Girl (Fox, 2011-2018)
The Night Shift (NBC, 2014-2017)
Nikita (CW, 2010-2013)
Numb3rs (CBS, 2005-2010)
The OC (Fox, 2003-2007)
The Office (NBC, 2005-2013)
Once Upon a Time (ABC, 2011-2018)
One Tree Hill (CW, 2003-2012)
The Originals (CW, 2013-2018)
Parenthood (NBC, 2010-2015)
Parks and Recreation (NBC, 2009-2015)
Person of Interest (CBS, 2011-2016)
Pretty Little Liars (Freeform/FREEFORM, 2010-2017)
Prison Break (Fox, 2005-2017)
Private Practice (ABC, 2007-2013)
Pushing Daisies (ABC, 2007-2009)*
Raising Hope (Fox, 2010-2014)
Ray Donovan (Showtime/SHOWTIME PRIME, 2013-2020)
Reaper (CW, 2007-2009)*
Reba (CW, 2001-2007)
Reign (CW, 2013-2017)
The Resident (Fox, 2018-2023)
Revenge (ABC, 2011-2015)
Riverdale (CW, 2017-2023)
Rizzoli and Isles (TNT/TURNER NETWORK TELEVISION, 2010-2016)
Rookie Blue (ABC, 2010-2015)
Royal Pains (USA, 2009-2016)
Rules of Engagement (CBS, 2007-2013)
Scandal (ABC, 2012-2018)
Scorpion (CBS, 2014-2018)
Scrubs (NBC/ABC, 2001-2010)
SEAL Team (CBS, 2017-2021)
The Secret Life of the American Teenager (Freeform, 2008-2013)
Shameless (Showtime, 2011-2021)
Silicon Valley (HBO/HBO PRIME, 2014-2019)
Sleepy Hollow (Fox, 2013-2017)
Smallville (CW, 2001-2011)
Sons of Anarchy (FX, 2008-2014)
Southland (NBC/TNT, 2009-2013)
Suits (USA, 2011-2019)
Supergirl (CBS/CW, 2015-2021)
Supernanny (ABC/LIFETIME TELEVISION, 2005-2020)
Supernatural (CW, 2005-2020)
Superstore (NBC, 2015-2021)
Swingtown (CBS, 2008-2008)*
Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles (Fox, 2008-2009)*
This Is Us (NBC, 2016-2022)
Til Death (Fox, 2006-2010)
True Blood (HBO, 2008-2014)
Two and a Half Men (CBS, 2003-2015)
Ugly Betty (ABC, 2006-2010)
Unforgettable (CBS/A&E, 2011-2016)
The Unit (CBS, 2006-2009)
The Vampire Diaries (CW, 2009-2017)
Veronica Mars (UPN/CW, 2004-2007)
Vikings (History/HISTORY, 2013-2020)
Warehouse 13 (Syfy, 2009-2014)
White Collar (USA, 2009-2014)
Wife Swap/Celebrity Wife Swap (ABC/LIFETIME TELEVISION/PARAMOUNT, 2004-2020)
Without a Trace (CBS, 2002-2009)
The X Factor (Fox, 2011-2013)

*- denotes 'flashback' post for shows with shorter runs/incomplete info

Can't find your show? It might be on one of these pages: 

(NEW!) Post-2018 Scripted Series: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW 
News & Sports Series (NEW!)
Pre-2001 Comedies
Pre-2001 Dramas

2023-24 | 2022-23 | 2021-22 | 2020-21 | 2019-20 | 2018-19 | 2017-18 | 2016-17 | 2015-16 | 2014-15 | 2013-14 | 2012-13 | 2011-12 | 2010-11 | 2009-10 | 2008-09 | 2007-08 | 2006-07 | 2005-06 | 2004-05

Summer 2010 Intro 1
Summer 2010 Intro 2
Summer 2010 Post-mortem 
Winter 2010 Intro
Summer 2011 Intro
Summer 2013 Intro (introducing 'Now')
Summer 2014 Intro (introducing separate raw/Plus tables)
The Breakdown Grading Rubric (explanation of grades)

War is Over, or The War of 18-49 Post-mortem

I hate to be one of those people who just writes about what I'm going to write about in the future, since 1) nobody cares and 2) it's usually a sign that the end is near (how many dead blogs end with a post that says "more to come tomorrow!") but I hope that my 59-part epic poem about TV ratings in the 2000s was enough to earn me one such rant.

Looking Back on the War of 18-49

I feel quite a sense of accomplishment having set out to do what seemed like a truly overwhelming project and actually getting it done. I started digging for ratings within a week or two of the end of the regular season, decided to write up the whole deal sometime in June, started rolling out the posts in early July, and in late August, here we are, finally wrapping it up. Quite a massive project, and probably a bigger undertaking than anything else I'll do on this blog.

My primary goal with this was to become more knowledgeable about TV ratings, and I think I have done that. I feel like I had a decent knack for looking at the numbers before, but now my context is much more considerable and I have a great archive of numbers to look back on. It kinda bugs me that I couldn't find more complete ratings for most of these shows, and I'm sorry if you feel the incompleteness is... I dunno, "unprofessional" or something. I'm sure there are some individual show fanatics out there who have more data on their shows than I do, but I still feel I've put together a pretty impressive collection of old ratings, particularly in the all-important A18-49 demo. (So many places with old ratings just look at households or viewers.) Even though I feel like I often spent half of the posts apologizing for my lack of info, in most cases the estimates are fine as a starting point. If I ever find a source somewhere that can fill in all the missing info, I may go back and do some serious re-averaging some time.

Till then, I've still learned a ton from a sheer numbers standpoint. If even one reader feels the same way from reading this stuff, that's awesome. This series didn't make the blog an overnight sensation or anything, not even close, but I think quite a few people stumbled across this blog thanks to the War and I hope some have stuck around. I really appreciate everyone who's read, commented, or shouted out, and I hope you'll stick with me going forward.  Speaking of going forward...

The Future of the War of 18-49

We're a long way from summer 2011, but my extremely preliminary plans are to bring back The War of 18-49 next summer. The idea kind of turns my stomach right now, since this project chewed up such a massive portion of my free time this summer! But there's plenty more history to be archived.(Also, future versions would not take nearly as much time. Not even in the same stratosphere.) So here are a few of the ideas:
  • Breaking down the battlegrounds: As I was finishing off my Final Battlegrounds post, which went up yesterday, I realized that post is pretty damn big.  I think I'm going to break it apart into some more manageable pieces so we can track how similar shows evolved over time. Ideally, I'll do that within the next three weeks, so that isn't a next summer thing.
  • Updates to the War: Everything that will be on the air in 2010-11 will hopefully at least get its 2010-11 average added on and maybe another sentence added to their text. I've thought about taking a select set of shows that already have a War of 18-49 post but had a very interesting year for one reason or another and re-featuring those. We'll see how 2010-11 shakes down.
  • Additions to the War: The main criteria for additions to the War of 18-49 going forward will remain that the show has been on the air for 4+ years. That may not be a totally hard and fast rule, but I will continue to use it for the average new addition. So the very first new additions would be newly eligible shows like Chuck, Gossip Girl, The Big Bang Theory, and Private Practice. There are some other shows that are eligible but that I didn't do for a variety of reasons. There are a few eligible shows like Deal or No Deal, King of the Hill, Prison Break, and Everybody Hates Chris which I didn't get around to or forgot about until very late in the process. I may look at those shows which failed my "too boring" criteria that pushed out America's Funniest Home Videos, all the newsmagazines, and Fox Saturday stuff, but probably not (I don't want tons of shows where I know nothing about the early history; I think L&O, Simpsons, and ER were enough). Beyond that, I would probably look into bending the "ended recently" rule to look at some defining shows like Friends that I'd have at least some data on, but again, I'd be missing the early history in most cases. I might look into cable shows also, but I kinda doubt it, because again of the availability of data issue. We'll see. I may just do the new broadcast shows from 2007-08 and call it a day.
  • Other projects: Every once in awhile I'll take on a one-shot type of project that looks at some theme or trend or something, and those will only get better now that I have so much more info. I'm not sure I'd want to go ten years into the past for a post like The Finale Spike, but it'll be cool to have that option. So the benefits of the War of 18-49 certainly don't end with this post. Bottom line is I'll just plain know more stuff and have access to more stuff, and that can never hurt.
Tomorrow, we launch into another project! Hope you'll join me!

      Friday, August 27, 2010

      The War of 18-49, Final Battlegrounds!

      EDIT: I'm leaving this post as is, but some of the info is now out of date, and the updated "Battlegrounds" have been split up into several posts by year. For the now updated posts, see the War of 18-49 Index.

      This is it, folks... the last official War of 18-49 post, at least for this summer. I think I'm going to do a few posts between now and the start of the regular season that will break this massive final battlegrounds post up into some more manageable/readable parts, but I won't put those under the official War of 18-49 banner. (As if being under the official War of 18-49 banner is such an important thing!) Also look for another post hopefully tomorrow looking back on this entire project and ahead to other War of 18-49-related posts like the aforementioned breakdowns, and then on Sunday my fall preview begins!

      ER 12.2/15.0/20.2
      Survivor (summer) 6.1/12.07/22.8
      The Simpsons 6.3/7.7/9.2
      Law & Order 5.6/7.1/7.8
      Law & Order: SVU (half on F) 3.6/4.9/6.6

      ER 10.4/13.66/16.1
      Survivor (fall) 11.2/12.57/15.9
      The Simpsons 6.9/7.9/9.8
      Law & Order 5.8/7.2/9.2
      CSI (half on F) 4.4/6.6/9.3
      Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.4/5.1/5.7

      ER 10.9/12.77/14.7
      CSI 6.6/8.8/10.5
      Survivor (spring) 7.5/8.6/10.4
      Survivor (fall) 6.6/8.59/11.3
      Law & Order 6.2/7.4/8.8
      American Idol Performance (summer) 4.5/6.2/9.3
      Scrubs 5.4/6.1/8.3
      The Simpsons 4.2/6.1/7.5
      American Idol Results (summer) 4.1/5.8/10.7
      Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.3/5.4/6.2
      The Bachelor (spring) 3.7/5.0/7.3
      According to Jim 3.2/4.7/5.8
      The Amazing Race (spring) 3.8/4.6/6.1
      24 3.7/4.4/5.4
      Law & Order: CI 3.5/4.4/6.8
      The Amazing Race (fall) 3.6/4.2/6.0
      Smallville 2.6/3.2/3.8

      ER 8.9/10.99/13.1
      CSI 8.0/10.0/11.6
      American Idol Performance 8.5/9.9/12.4
      American Idol Results 7.9/9.9/14.9
      Survivor (fall) 7.4/8.7/9.9
      Scrubs 5.4/8.1/10.9
      The Bachelor (fall) 4.9/7.87/11.9
      The Bachelorette (winter) 6.0/7.85/9.3
      Survivor (spring) 6.1/7.5/9.1
      CSI: Miami 5.4/6.73/8.6
      The Simpsons 4.6/6.6/10.3
      Law & Order 5.1/6.6/7.6
      The Bachelor (spring) 4.7/5.99/7.2
      24 4.3/5.7/6.6
      Without a Trace 4.3/5.4/6.4
      Law & Order: SVU (F) 4.4/5.2/6.3
      Law & Order: CI 4.4/5.2/6.0
      According to Jim 3.0/4.50/6.1
      Smallville 3.8/4.1/4.5
      The Amazing Race (fall) 3.2/3.95/4.7
      The Amazing Race (summer) 2.8/3.2/3.7
      America's Next Top Model (summer) 1.2/1.8/2.3

      American Idol Performance 9.0/10.8/13.1
      The Apprentice 9.1/10.31/13.6
      American Idol Results 8.5/10.2/12.7
      ER 8.3/10.14/13.8
      CSI 6.5/9.4/10.8
      Survivor (spring) 7.2/8.57/10.6
      Survivor (fall) 7.0/8.1/9.7
      CSI: Miami 5.9/7.01/9.0
      The Bachelor (fall) 4.8/6.44/8.8
      Law & Order 5.0/5.9/7.6
      Without a Trace 4.7/5.7/6.8
      Two and a Half Men 4.8/5.6/6.6
      Scrubs 3.4/5.5/8.3
      Law & Order: SVU 4.7/5.38/7.4
      The Bachelorette (winter) 4.1/5.24/6.2
      The Bachelor (spring) 4.2/5.22/6.0
      The Simpsons 3.2/5.1/7.8
      Law & Order: CI 4.0/4.8/5.7
      The Amazing Race (summer) 4.3/4.7/5.6
      According to Jim 3.3/4.5/6.0
      24 3.0/4.5/5.9
      Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 1.6/4.08/5.8
      Cold Case 2.7/3.5/4.3
      America's Next Top Model 2.2/3.0/3.8
      (Navy) NCIS 2.4/2.8/3.1
      Smallville 2.1/2.7/3.0
      One Tree Hill 0.8/1.5/2.1

      American Idol Performance 9.8/11.2/14.0
      American Idol Results 9.0/11.0/12.5
      Desperate Housewives 8.6/10.66/13.4
      CSI 8.3/9.92/11.6
      ER 6.5/8.26/9.8
      Grey's Anatomy 7.2/8.09/9.8
      The Apprentice (fall) 6.6/7.66/8.3
      Survivor (spring) 6.4/7.5/9.1
      CSI: Miami 6.5/7.47/8.6
      Survivor (fall) 6.8/7.4/7.8
      Lost 5.9/6.89/8.4
      Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 3.4/6.56/9.0
      Without a Trace 3.3/6.5/7.7
      The Apprentice (winter) 4.8/6.48/7.4
      Two and a Half Men 4.6/5.9/8.1
      Law & Order: SVU 4.7/5.54/6.5
      Medium 4.4/5.5/6.3
      CSI: NY 3.8/5.3/7.1
      The Amazing Race (spring)
      House 2.5/5.28/7.7
      Dancing with the Stars (summer) 4.3/5.1/6.7
      24 4.5/5.06/6.3
      The Amazing Race (winter) 4.0/4.6/5.2
      Law & Order 3.6/4.56/6.2
      The Simpsons 3.4/4.5/5.6
      The Biggest Loser 3.7/4.4/5.9
      Wife Swap 3.1/4.18/5.3
      Family Guy (some in summer) 3.0/4.1/5.8
      Law & Order: CI 2.8/4.1/5.3
      The Bachelorette (winter) 3.3/3.9/5.0
      Supernanny 2.9/3.86/4.7
      Cold Case 3.1/3.8/4.8
      According to Jim 3.0/3.8/4.9
      American Dad! 3.0/3.7/4.7
      The Bachelor (fall) 3.3/3.69/3.9
      The Bachelor (spring) 2.9/3.51/3.9
      Numb3rs (F) 2.9/3.4/5.0
      NCIS 2.9/3.3/3.9
      Scrubs 2.4/3.3/4.3
      The Office 2.3/2.95/5.0
      America's Next Top Model (spring) 2.2/2.5/3.0
      America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.8/2.4/2.9
      Smallville 1.8/2.3/3.0
      One Tree Hill 1.6/2.0/2.4

      American Idol Performance 11.4/12.9/15.3
      American Idol Results 9.2/12.0/14.2
      Desperate Housewives 7.5/10.09/12.3
      Grey's Anatomy 7.2/9.13/11.2
      CSI 7.4/9.08/10.6
      Lost 6.1/7.92/10.2
      House 4.8/7.16/10.2
      Survivor (fall) 5.7/6.54/7.7
      CSI: Miami 5.3/6.35/7.0
      Without a Trace 5.0/6.31/7.3
      ER 5.1/6.16/7.1
      Survivor (spring) 4.9/5.82/7.0
      24 4.8/5.67/7.0
      Law & Order: SVU 4.8/5.48/6.5
      Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.8/5.42/7.1
      Two and a Half Men 3.8/5.15/5.9
      My Name is Earl 4.0/5.13/6.6
      Dancing with the Stars (winter performance) 4.6/5.1/5.5
      CSI: NY 4.3/4.97/6.5
      The Apprentice (fall) 4.5/4.97/5.7
      The Simpsons 3.5/4.6/5.6
      Family Guy 3.8/4.3/4.8
      The Amazing Race (fall) 3.5/4.3/4.7
      Medium 3.7/4.29/5.2
      The Office 3.6/4.15/5.1
      The Biggest Loser 3.0/4.12/6.7
      Criminal Minds 3.3/4.08/6.5
      The Bachelor (winter) 2.7/3.98/5.1
      Old Christine 2.4/3.9/5.1
      The Apprentice (winter/spring) 3.3/3.88/4.4
      NCIS 3.0/3.87/4.4
      Bones 2.8/3.8/5.2
      Cold Case 2.9/3.8/4.5
      Law & Order 2.6/3.72/4.8
      American Dad! 3.1/3.7/4.1
      How I Met Your Mother 3.0/3.7/4.4
      Dancing with the Stars (winter results) (F) 3.0/3.6/4.0
      Numb3rs (F) 2.9/3.40/3.8
      The Amazing Race (spring) 2.5/3.4/4.1
      Wife Swap 2.6/3.34/4.4
      Law & Order: CI 2.6/3.33/4.1
      Scrubs 2.6/3.11/4.0
      Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.3/3.1/3.6
      Supernanny (half on F) 1.7/3.1/4.4
      According to Jim 1.9/2.6/3.2
      America's Next Top Model (fall) 2.1/2.5/3.0
      Smallville 1.8/2.4/2.9
      America's Next Top Model (spring) 2.0/2.3/2.8
      Supernatural 1.6/2.2/2.6
      One Tree Hill 1.3/1.5/1.7

      American Idol Performance 9.3/11.78/15.8
      American Idol Results 9.9/11.99/15.5
      Grey's Anatomy 7.6/9.38/11.6
      House 5.8/7.94/11.2
      Desperate Housewives 6.1/7.57/9.6
      CSI 5.2/6.91/8.4
      Heroes 5.1/6.13/6.9
      Lost 4.9/5.85/7.7
      Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 5.2/5.7/7.5
      CSI: Miami 4.7/5.61/6.5
      Survivor (fall) 4.3/5.46/6.5
      Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.8/5.2/6.4
      ER 3.1/4.96/6.8
      Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.7/4.9/7.1
      24 3.8/4.80/6.1
      Two and a Half Men 3.6/4.78/5.8
      Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.5/4.77/6.4
      Brothers & Sisters 3.4/4.67/6.0
      Survivor (spring) 4.1/4.65/5.7
      Law & Order: SVU 3.8/4.65/5.3
      CSI: NY 3.3/4.57/6.0
      Rules of Engagement 3.6/4.57/5.2
      Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 3.9/4.5/6.7
      Family Guy 3.6/4.32/4.8
      Criminal Minds 3.3/4.27/5.2
      The Simpsons 3.0/4.26/5.4
      The Office 3.2/4.13/5.0
      Ugly Betty 2.8/3.97/5.0
      Without a Trace 3.0/3.95/4.8
      The Bachelor (spring) 3.4/3.89/4.8
      My Name is Earl 3.0/3.82/4.6
      The Amazing Race (fall) 3.3/3.8/4.1
      NCIS 3.1/3.66/4.2
      Cold Case 2.7/3.62/4.3
      American Dad! 2.8/3.6/4.5
      Old Christine 2.4/3.45/4.4
      Supernanny 2.1/3.41/4.2
      The Biggest Loser 2.6/3.34/4.8
      How I Met Your Mother 2.8/3.33/3.9
      Wife Swap 2.4/3.30/3.9
      Bones 2.5/3.3/4.4
      The Bachelor (fall) 2.7/3.27/3.9
      The Amazing Race (spring) 2.8/3.18/3.9
      Scrubs 2.3/3.08/4.0
      Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.5/3.00/3.6
      Numb3rs (F) 2.3/2.98/3.5
      Law & Order: CI 2.0/2.94/4.2
      Medium 2.4/2.91/3.7
      'Til Death 1.7/2.90/6.3
      The Apprentice 2.3/2.86/4.1
      Law & Order (F) 1.9/2.75/3.6
      30 Rock 1.7/2.57/3.2
      America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.9/2.51/3.0
      America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.8/2.46/3.0
      According to Jim 1.8/2.31/3.2
      Friday Night Lights 1.7/2.30/3.5
      Smallville 1.4/1.92/2.34
      Supernatural 1.2/1.38/1.7
      One Tree Hill 0.9/1.32/1.9

      American Idol Performance 8.4/10.6/13.8
      American Idol Results 6.8/10.0/12.6
      Grey's Anatomy 5.1/7.16/8.8
      House 5.1/7.05/9.0
      Desperate Housewives 5.5/6.71/7.8
      CSI 4.2/5.78/8.2
      Lost 4.6/5.31/6.7
      Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 4.7/5.3/6.0
      Heroes 4.9/5.24/6.5
      Two and a Half Men 4.4/4.95/5.4
      Family Guy 3.6/4.77/5.6
      Survivor (fall) 4.5/4.72/5.2
      Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.1/4.7/5.6
      Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.9/4.6/6.4
      The Office 3.6/4.53/5.1
      CSI: Miami 3.9/4.42/4.9
      Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.3/4.41/5.6
      Law & Order: SVU 3.6/4.39/5.1
      Brothers & Sisters 3.0/4.22/5.0
      Survivor (spring) 3.8/4.16/4.8
      Rules of Engagement 3.7/4.05/4.5
      Dancing with the Stars (spring results): 3.6/4.0/4.4
      The Simpsons 2.9/3.97/5.7
      Without a Trace 3.1/3.80/6.4
      Criminal Minds 3.1/3.64/4.5
      The Celebrity Apprentice 3.1/3.62/4.5
      CSI: NY 2.9/3.61/4.1
      The Amazing Race (winter) 2.8/3.53/4.3
      How I Met Your Mother 3.1/3.50/4.5
      The Bachelor (fall) 3.2/3.48/4.2
      Old Christine 2.7/3.46/4.5
      ER 2.9/3.45/4.1
      The Biggest Loser (spring) 2.9/3.44/4.4
      NCIS 2.9/3.36/4.1
      The Biggest Loser (fall) 2.7/3.27/4.6
      American Dad! 2.4/3.18/4.2
      Bones 2.7/3.17/3.6
      Law & Order 2.6/3.16/3.8
      Medium 2.5/3.11/3.5
      Scrubs 2.4/3.10/3.8
      My Name is Earl 2.4/3.09/3.8
      Ugly Betty 2.2/3.03/3.9
      Cold Case 2.1/2.91/3.5
      30 Rock 2.5/2.82/3.4
      The Bachelor (spring) 2.3/2.68/3.2
      Supernanny 1.4/2.66/4.0
      The Bachelorette (summer) 1.8/2.55/3.7
      Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.0/2.50/2.9
      Numb3rs (F) 2.1/2.48/2.8
      'Til Death 1.9/2.47/4.3
      America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.6/2.38/2.8
      Wife Swap 1.6/2.21/3.3
      America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.7/1.93/2.3
      Friday Night Lights (F) 1.7/1.85/2.1
      Smallville 1.4/1.70/2.1
      According to Jim 1.1/1.57/2.3
      Law & Order: CI (USA) 1.1/1.4/1.7
      One Tree Hill 1.1/1.34/1.6
      Supernatural 1.0/1.19/1.3

      American Idol Performance 8.0/9.1/11.7
      American Idol Results 7.7/9.2/11.8
      Grey's Anatomy 5.0/5.73/7.4
      Desperate Housewives 4.1/5.29/7.1
      House 4.5/5.21/6.0
      Two and a Half Men 4.0/5.06/5.6
      Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 4.2/4.9/6.1
      CSI 3.4/4.75/7.1
      Lost 3.8/4.46/5.2
      Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 3.9/4.3/5.3
      The Office 3.4/4.27/4.9
      The Bachelor (winter) 3.1/4.23/6.7
      Survivor (fall) 3.8/4.17/4.5
      How I Met Your Mother 2.9/4.01/4.8
      CSI: Miami 3.3/3.98/5.2
      Family Guy 3.2/3.98/5.1
      Survivor (spring) 3.5/3.91/4.5
      Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 3.3/3.9/5.1
      The Biggest Loser (spring) 3.2/3.78/4.7
      Heroes 2.6/3.65/5.0
      Rules of Engagement 1.9/3.65/4.4
      24 3.1/3.64/4.3
      NCIS 3.1/3.64/4.0
      Criminal Minds 3.0/3.61/4.7
      Law & Order: SVU 2.5/3.55/3.9
      Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 2.8/3.5/5.2
      ER 2.6/3.49/6.0
      Brothers & Sisters 2.8/3.47/4.6
      CSI: NY 2.9/3.38/4.3
      The Simpsons 2.5/3.38/6.2
      Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 1.9/3.32/4.1
      30 Rock 2.4/3.30/4.1
      The Biggest Loser (fall) 2.6/3.23/4.6
      The Celebrity Apprentice 2.8/3.15/3.9
      The Amazing Race (fall) 2.7/3.15/3.5
      The Amazing Race (spring) 2.6/3.11/3.7
      Bones 2.3/2.93/3.5
      American Dad! 2.3/2.91/3.6
      Without a Trace 2.5/2.73/3.4
      Cold Case 2.1/2.68/3.1
      The Bachelorette (summer) 2.1/2.62/3.5
      Ghost Whisperer (F) 2.1/2.53/2.9
      My Name is Earl 1.7/2.46/2.8
      Medium 1.9/2.38/2.9
      Ugly Betty 1.7/2.34/3.3
      Law & Order 1.7/2.26/3.0
      Numb3rs (F) 1.8/2.23/2.7
      Scrubs 1.5/2.16/3.2
      Old Christine 1.6/2.05/2.4
      America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.7/1.97/2.3
      America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.4/1.76/1.9
      'Til Death 1.4/1.75/2.3
      Supernanny (F) 1.1/1.69/2.3
      Smallville 1.3/1.61/1.9
      Wife Swap (F) 1.1/1.50/1.8
      One Tree Hill 1.1/1.43/1.9
      Supernatural 1.1/1.33/1.7
      Friday Night Lights (F) 1.1/1.32/1.6
      According to Jim 0.9/1.31/2.2
      Law & Order: CI (USA) 0.9/1.2/1.5

      American Idol Performance 6.2/8.34/11.8
      American Idol Results 5.9/7.73/10.1
      Two and a Half Men 4.4/4.94/5.8
      House 3.6/4.85/6.7
      Dancing with the Stars (spring performance) 6.4/4.84/4.0
      Grey's Anatomy 3.5/4.83/6.7
      Lost 3.7/4.49/5.8
      Desperate Housewives 3.3/4.25/5.3
      The Bachelor (winter) 3.3/4.08/5.3
      NCIS 3.1/4.07/4.8
      The Office 3.2/3.97/4.8
      Survivor (spring) 3.4/3.91/4.5
      Survivor (fall) 3.4/3.86/4.4
      Family Guy 3.1/3.85/5.2
      The Biggest Loser (fall) 3.1/3.74/5.0
      Dancing with the Stars (fall performance) 3.4/3.67/4.1
      Criminal Minds 3.1/3.60/4.4
      CSI: Miami 2.7/3.59/4.3
      How I Met Your Mother 2.8/3.53/4.0
      CSI 2.8/3.40/4.1 
      The Simpsons 2.4/3.38/6.9
      The Amazing Race (fall) 2.8/3.38/3.7
      The Biggest Loser (spring) 2.8/3.36/4.6
      Dancing with the Stars (fall results) 2.6/3.33/4.3
      The Amazing Race (spring) 2.6/3.13/3.9
      CSI: NY 2.3/3.03/4.0
      Rules of Engagement 2.5/3.00/3.6
      The Bachelorette (summer) 2.5/2.98/3.8
      24 2.3/2.93/3.9
      American Dad! 2.0/2.89/3.6
      Bones 2.4/2.88/3.6
      Brothers & Sisters 2.2/2.85/3.7
      Dancing with the Stars (spring results) 2.4/2.83/3.9
      The Celebrity Apprentice 2.3/2.80/3.4
      Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.1/2.71/3.7
      30 Rock 1.9/2.69/3.3
      Law & Order: SVU 2.0/2.68/3.3
      Heroes 1.8/2.30/2.8
      Cold Case 1.7/2.15/2.6
      Old Christine 1.5/1.94/2.3
      Ghost Whisperer (F) 1.3/1.86/2.3
      Medium (F) 1.3/1.84/2.2
      Numb3rs (F) 1.6/1.79/2.2
      Law & Order (half on F) 1.2/1.64/2.0
      Scrubs 1.1/1.52/2.3
      America's Next Top Model (fall) 1.3/1.51/1.8
      America's Next Top Model (spring) 1.2/1.51/1.7
      Ugly Betty (F) 0.9/1.36/1.7
      Supernanny (F) 0.9/1.24/1.6
      Supernatural 1.0/1.22/1.4
      Wife Swap (F) 0.9/1.12/1.4
      One Tree Hill 0.9/1.10/1.3
      Friday Night Lights (F) (summer) 0.9/1.06/1.3
      Smallville (F) 0.7/1.01/1.2
      Law & Order: CI (USA) 0.7/0.88/1.1
      'Til Death (F) 0.5/0.82/1.3

      The War of 18-49, The Simpsons


      Scheduling history: The vast majority of The Simpsons' run has come on Sunday. The show was on Sunday in its short first season all the way back in early 1990, then moved to Thursday for the next four years, then went back to Sunday for fall of 1994 and has been on that evening for the over two decades since.

      See (who saw) how it all began: Like other posts for Law & Order and ER, The Simpsons is a show for which I'm unfortunately missing a ton of information. As with those two shows, I start tracking in 1999-00, the first year in which I have any reasonable amount of data. But I did see some numbers on the series premiere on 1/14/90. I saw a couple conflicting reports, so this really should be taken with a pretty massive grain of salt, but the number I'm going with is 24.53 million viewers and a 12.4/26 demo. I also saw a higher demo number that could be right. (I went with the lower one since it seemed to match the number of viewers better.) Either way, the premiere was one of the biggest in Fox history.

      The best of times: Unlike ER and L&O, which seemingly peaked around the time I started getting data, I don't really know for sure on The Simpsons, so all I can really say is that the best seasons of data I have were from that period, circa 2000. The best regular in-timeslot data I have is the 9.9 and 10.4 demos scored by the one-hour show on 2/16/03 advertised as the 300th episode. (Though they were actually the 302nd and 303rd in broadcast order.)

      The worst of times: The Simpsons has mostly gone downhill since then, though it's stayed close to even after accounting for the league average decline. Season 27 set a new series low with a 1.0 demo on 4/3/16, and went fractional for the first times on 4/2/17 and 5/21/17.

      Then vs. now: Of all the shows we've looked at (certainly all the big-four shows), The Simpsons is probably the most meaningful to the entire history of its network. Fox started in the 1986-87 season, so The Simpsons began in the fourth year of the net's nearly three decades of existence, and it's still going strong today. The mid-aughts were the last time the show took a year-to-year drop massively more than the league average. That's not bad at all over that long a period of time (though the NFL lead-ins have probably helped), and the show remains a really viable primetime player because it's still so strong in the younger male demos. Like Law & Order, it's proven that the key to longevity isn't necessarily staying at the very top of the primetime heap, as The Simpsons hasn't been close to those levels in many years. But thanks to its staying close to even, it should remain near the top in the numbers that matter most of all: ad dollars.

      Adults 18-49 info by season:

      111999-00Sunday 8:007.475.89.7

      Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

      111999-00155big hit0.66121202139141
      122000-01161big hit0.69+4%133204133144


      The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.

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