Monday, October 31, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/28/16

FINALS UPDATE: World Series (5.2) adjusted up while MacGyver (0.9) and The Vampire Diaries (0.3) adjusted down.

  • The World Series began its weekend run on Fox with a huge high-4's prelim on Friday night. This will likely be in the vicinity of +50% from the year-ago Game 3, which was a 3.1 prelim that adjusted up to a 3.2 final.
  • The only big four scripted lineup that went up against the Series was CBS' trio of dramas, resulting in a relatively soft night for MacGyver (1.0), Hawaii Five-0 (1.0) and Blue Bloods (1.1).
  • On ABC, the comedies sat out in favor of the network's second run of It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown (1.0), while usual originals Shark Tank (1.1) and 20/20 (0.7) were on the soft side as well.
  • NBC was a little below usual as well, with Caught on Camera (0.6) and Dateline (0.8/0.9).
  • And the CW's The Vampire Diaries (0.4) and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.2) matched last week's premieres. CEG was down around 10% from last week's preliminary total viewers, so it may be close to a 0.1 again.

SpotVault - The World Series (Fox) - 2016 Ratings

World Series on Fox

SpotVault - The Great Indoors (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

The Great Indoors
Thursdays, 8:30/7:30c, CBS

SpotVault - Pure Genius (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

Pure Genius
Thursdays, 10/9c, CBS

SpotVault - Mom (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

Thursdays, 9/8c, CBS

SpotVault - Life in Pieces (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

Life in Pieces
Thursdays, 9:30/8:30c, CBS

Friday, October 28, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/27/16

RENEWOLOGY: Please note that I've rerun Renewology for this week with the CBS comedy effect removed. Everything on the network has been updated here.

The comedy effect is going to be back, but hopefully we will have better info when it returns. Any further beefs beyond this point are probably more about the True formula, rather than the targets.

  •  CBS' 8:30 to 10:00 comedies came down by 0.1 each, leaving The Great Indoors at 1.9, Mom at 1.5 and Life in Pieces at 1.4, while Pure Genius went down 0.2 to a near-DOA 1.0.
    • Renewology is really down on all of the CBS premieres from last night, making Great Indoors (25%) and Pure Genius (18%) big long-shots and putting even returnees Mom (31%) and Life in Pieces (42%) below the bubble. A big part of this is in the category adjustment, which probably hurts these shows too much for being CBS comedies. I'll talk some more about this next week. For now, it is probably best to look at the CBS comedies on a relative basis, rather than the absolute R%. In this sense, Great Indoors started just a bit behind Man with a Plan (28%), while Mom and LiP are ahead of both of the newbies (as well as fellow returnee The Odd Couple).
  • Elsewhere, NBC's The Good Place (1.2) and Chicago Med (1.5) adjusted up, marking a new season high for Med.
  • CBS' fall rollout finally concluded with the premiere of its new Thursday lineup: The Big Bang Theory (3.4), newbie The Great Indoors (2.0), returning comedies Mom (1.6) and Life in Pieces (1.5), and new drama Pure Genius (1.2). How they actually did is still not at all clear because the network was preempted in the local Thursday Night Football markets (as TNF begins a three-week run of airing nationally only on NFL Network). My only observation that seems probable to hold up in finals is surprisingly solid retention for Life in Pieces at 9:30...
  • CBS' return didn't cause much of a stir on the other broadcasters, in part because they were so beaten down last time out. In fact, NBC was actually on the rebound from its truly rotten week-ago results, including a surprising surge for Superstore (1.3) in its first head-to-head with a TBBT original. The Good Place (1.1), Chicago Med (1.4) and The Blacklist (1.2) were also on the upswing. Med would actually tie its timeslot high with this number.
  • On Fox, Pitch (0.8) couldn't get anything going despite coming off of two days of World Series promotion (including a special encore on FS1 following the Game 1 postgame show). It led out of another 0.8 from Rosewood.
  • ABC's Grey's Anatomy (2.2) took a tenth away from Notorious (0.8), while How to Get Away with Murder (1.2) was even at 10/9c.
  • On the CW, Legends of Tomorrow (0.6) lost the tenth it got in a finals adjustment last week, while Supernatural stayed at 0.6.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/26/16

FINALS UPDATE: The Goldbergs (1.8) and Speechless (1.7) and Modern Family (2.3) and Survivor (1.9) and Law and Order: SVU (1.5) adjusted up while Designated Survivor (1.2) and World Series (4.8) adjusted down.

Thanks to the World Series downtick (presumably due to the earlier material in the 7:00 hour), Game 2 ended up with almost exactly the same year-to-year trend as Game 1, which is still really good.

  • Despite the earlier start time, Game 2 of the World Series ran all the way through primetime on the East Coast, and early numbers (4.9) have it up even more sharply than Game 1, compared to the year-ago ratings. (Game 2 in 2015 had a 3.6 prelim and 3.9 final.)
  • It was another largely down night for the entertainment world, which had the double-whammy of coming back from a week off for a presidential debate last Wednesday. ABC had the softest night, and is in the particularly unenviable position of facing another preemption due to the CMA Awards next week. Designated Survivor (1.3) took a major step down at 10/9c, merely tying Chicago PD (1.3) for the hourly lead, and the comedies The Goldbergs (1.7), Speechless (1.6), Modern Family (2.2) and Black-ish (1.7) were all down as well (most of them by two tenths).
  • The only big four show to avoid any kind of downtick was NBC's Law and Order: SVU (1.4), while its surrounding programs PD (1.3) and Blindspot (1.1) both inched down. CBS had minor slippage across the board with Survivor (1.8), Criminal Minds (1.6) and Code Black (1.0).
  • The CW's Arrow (0.7) and Frequency (0.3) matched last week.

Best Case/Worst Case: The Great Indoors, Pure Genius, Mom, Life in Pieces

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/25/16

FINALS UPDATE: American Housewife (1.6) and World Series (5.6) adjusted up.

  • Fox happily took a break from its usual Tuesday lineup to air a very strong Game 1 of the World Series, which averaged a 5.4 prelim and may adjust up a bit more after finals. That was almost 20% above last year's Game 1 prelim, and it's gonna be the first time that Game 1 of a Series broke a 5 rating since 2009 (and just the third time since 2004). Due to weather concerns, tonight's Game 2 will be starting an hour earlier (and could conceivably be done by the start of the 10/9c hour on the East Coast).
  • Against this competition, there was some downward momentum on the other networks, but nothing too catastrophic. On ABC, comedy newbie American Housewife (1.5) took another dip in week three, this time only matching its The Middle (1.5) lead-in in the prelims. Fresh Off the Boat (1.2) also inched down, but The Real O'Neals (1.0) and Agents of SHIELD (0.8) tried to keep their hats in the ring with upticks from last week's finals. (But note that both shows had these numbers in the prelims last week and adjusted down.)
  • NBC's This Is Us (2.4) was still easily the star of the entertainment world. It had another two-tenth loss, but its The Voice (2.1) lead-in was down by even more. Chicago Fire (1.6) was even at 10/9c.
  • CBS was another network that held up best at 10/9c, with NCIS: New Orleans (1.3) on the uptick. But NCIS (1.7) and Bull (1.5) each lost a tenth.
  • Male-skewing The Flash (1.0) managed to hold up against the Series, but No Tomorrow could only muster up another shaky 0.3.

Cablemetrics: The Walking Dead, Talking Dead, Westworld, The Strain

These numbers are current through Monday, October 24.

  • Many like to reminisce about the days when a TV program could end its season on a cliffhanger and capture the national imagination for the entire summer. But it looks like that is still possible even in 2016, as The Walking Dead (8.36) exploded from a 2015-16 season that was mostly in the 6's and somehow found the show's second-best raw number ever. Whatever historical adjustment you use for this show, it's pretty clearly a more impressive performance than the raw series high, an 8.65 for the fall premiere two years ago. It's also probably gonna be over six times the big four league average for this season, which is getting into (or even beyond) Friends finale territory.

SpotVault - The Walking Dead (AMC) - Fall 2016 Ratings

SpotVault - Man with a Plan (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

Man with a Plan
Mondays, 8:30/7:30c, CBS

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/24/16

FINALS UPDATE: Kevin Can Wait (1.7) adjusted up while Timeless (1.3) and Supergirl (0.8) and Jane the Virgin (0.4) adjusted down.

  • CBS moved Kevin Can Wait (1.6) to the 8:00 lead-off slot and launched newbie Man with a Plan (1.6) at 8:30. Kevin shed a half-point in its 8/7c debut, which is probably not too far away from what should be expected when a Big Bang lead-in is lost. It was week three for 2 Broke Girls (1.4), which lost a tenth for the second straight week, and week two for The Odd Couple (1.1), which at least didn't get any worse than last week's premiere, in the 9:00 hour.
  • In the 10/9c drama wars, Timeless (1.4) remained on top but gave up at least a tenth from last week. Conviction (0.8) preliminarily had a minor rebound and will hope to hold it in finals this time. And Scorpion (1.2) shed a tenth.
  • Fox inched down with Gotham (1.1) and Lucifer (1.0), while the CW's Supergirl (0.9) and Jane the Virgin (0.6) are pending preemptions for Monday Night Football.

Renewology Swings of the Week: Timeless, MacGyver, Son of Zorn, Quantico and more!

This is the first edition of Renewology's "Swings of the Week," looking at which shows this week had the biggest change in R%. How much did this week's ratings matter? This is our attempt at quantifying it. I will try to put this out every Tuesday going forward, though a lot of times I may not do much in the way of accompanying analysis.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/23/16

FINALS UPDATE: Sunday Night Football (6.0) adjusted up while NFL Overrun (5.6) and 60 Minutes (3.0) and Football Night in America (2.7) and The Simpsons (R) (0.5) and Bob's Burgers (1.4) and The Simpsons (1.5) adjusted down.

  • Against the return of gigahit The Walking Dead on AMC, things got even rougher for the ABC drama lineup. In direct competition with most of the TWD episode, Secrets and Lies (0.7) took the biggest hit, but Once Upon a Time (1.0) and Quantico (0.7) also inched down to new lows.
  • On Fox, some local overruns may affect the early part of their evening with a The Simpsons repeat (1.6), Bob's Burgers (1.6) and maybe the Simpsons (1.6) original. Beyond that, viewers quickly fled for Son of Zorn (1.0), Family Guy (1.2) and The Last Man on Earth (0.9). In the 9/8c hour, opposite the Dead premiere, Family Guy was down a tenth from its last airing without a national overrun, while Last Man tied its premiere Sunday rating.
  • CBS used the national overrun to boost 60 Minutes (3.6/2.7) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.7), leading into Madam Secretary (1.1) and Elementary (0.8 in the 10:30 half-hour). All these shows are subject to minor change since they started five minutes after their listed timeslots for the East/Central.
  • On a baseball-free night with a better matchup, Sunday Night Football averaged a low-5's prelim, up a good bit from last week. (Could this night have been even worse for broadcast if FS1 had been airing a baseball Game 7...?)

Monday, October 24, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/21/16

FINALS UPDATE: Shark Tank (1.3) and Hawaii Five-0 (1.2) and Hell's Kitchen (1.1) adjusted up while Caught on Camera (0.6) and The Exorcist (0.7) adjusted down.

  • The CW finished its fall rollout with the returns of The Vampire Diaries (0.4) and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.2). TVD opened with its most frequent Friday rating from last season, while CEG showed no early signs of benefiting from either awards love or the CW's tendency to hold up well on Friday.
  • It was a softer night than usual for the CBS veteran dramas, with Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) and Blue Bloods (1.1) dropping to new season lows (but still basically on par with the 1.0/1.2 from the year-ago evening). Those declines, however, made MacGyver look better with another 1.1 in the lead-off spot.
  • On Fox, The Exorcist (0.8) continued to keep itself surprisingly competitive in the Fox picture, bumping up by another tenth, and now up two tenths from that seemingly catastrophic 0.6 back in week two. Hell's Kitchen had its fourth consecutive 1.0.
  • It wasn't a pretty night for Dr. Ken on ABC, which was back down to 0.8 between Last Man Standing (1.1) and Shark Tank (1.2).
  • And after a poor return last week, NBC's Caught on Camera (0.7) inched back up to its more typical level from last season, while Dateline (1.0) had another win over 20/20 (0.9).

Best Case/Worst Case: Man with a Plan

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

SpotVault - Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW) - 2016-17 Ratings

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Fridays, 9/8c, CW

SpotVault - The Vampire Diaries (CW) - 2016-17 Ratings

The Vampire Diaries
Fridays, 8/7c, CW

Friday, October 21, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/20/16

FINALS UPDATE: Thursday Night Football (4.5) and The Good Place (1.0) and Legends of Tomorrow (0.7) adjusted up while Thursday Night Football Pregame (2.0) adjusted down.

  • On the last Thursday of CBS' half of the Thursday Night Football package, NBC's comedies had a very sour final note before they begin dueling with the CBS comedies. Superstore (1.0) and The Good Place (0.9) both collapsed by multiple tenths week-to-week, going massively behind their previous lows. There was a new low for Chicago Med (1.2) at 9/8c, as well, but it doesn't look as bad given the 8/7c hour's problems and the multiple Chicago sports events in competition. The Blacklist started looking better by comparison with another 1.1 at 10/9c.
  • Fox sat out its usual drama duo for its latest musical event, The Rocky Horror Picture Show (1.7). While it skewed quite young and basically doubled Fox's usual drama ratings, it went well below most of the other musical events from recent years, and was most comparable to Fox's telecast of The Passion (1.6) back in March.
  • ABC saw minor upticks in the last two hours with Notorious (0.9) and How to Get Away with Murder (1.2), leading out of a steady Grey's Anatomy (2.1).
  • And the CW took a somewhat surprising turn in week two of its Thursday drama lineup, as Legends of Tomorrow (0.6) actually held up while Supernatural (0.6) had a noticeable dip.

First Two Weeks, American Housewife

Rating: 1.9
Lead-in: The Middle (1.8)
Competition: NCIS (1.8), The Voice (2.6), New Girl (0.9), The Flash (1.1)

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/19/16

FINALS UPDATE: Blindspot (1.2) and Frequency (0.3) adjusted down.

  • The big four stepped aside starting at 9/8c to air the third and final presidential debate. Overnights suggested it did better than the second debate ten days ago (which had to compete with the NFL), and also better than the 2012 third debate, but significantly worse than the enormous first debate on September 26.
  • In the 8:00 hour, Fox's Lethal Weapon (1.7) and NBC's Blindspot (1.3) both aired with atypical lead-outs. It was actually a downgrade for Weapon, which usually has megahit Empire at 9/8c, while Fox averaged just a 1.9 in the 9/8c prelims last night. So the show absolutely looks like the real deal in dropping just a couple tenths in that situation. (It's even had this number in a with-Empire situation, in week three.) Blindspot bounced back from last week's 1.1 to its usual early season number, which is better than nothing, but it's still questionable whether it can do it again under normal circumstances.
  • CBS' Survivor (1.9) did its usual thing, while ABC actually won the hour as Halloween-themed specials It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown (2.2) and Toy Story of TERROR! (2.0) did better than the usual comedies. Both specials did significantly better than last season (when they averaged 2.0/1.6 respectively).
  • The CW was the only network with a full entertainment night, as both Arrow (0.6) and Frequency (0.4) aired. The early-season softness continued for the superhero empire, with Arrow preliminarily dipping to a new series low, but Frequency took at least a bit of advantage of the simulcast competition in the 9/8c hour.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/18/16

FINALS UPDATE: American Housewife (1.7) and The Voice (2.5) adjusted up while The Real O'Neals (0.9) and Agents of SHIELD (0.7) and Chicago Fire (1.6) adjusted down.

  • ABC's comedy Tuesday came back to earth a bit in week two, with comedies The Middle (1.5), American Housewife (1.6), Fresh Off the Boat (1.3) and The Real O'Neals (1.0) all taking high-teens drops week-to-week and Agents of SHIELD inching down to a new low 0.8. Staying ahead of its Middle lead-in keeps Housewife squarely in the 'promising' column, but the lineup as a whole may not be quite what seemed possible on premiere night.
  • NBC's breakout This Is Us (2.6) was back down a bit in its second week at 9/8c, mimicking the path it took in the two 10/9c episodes, and it outrated its The Voice (2.4) lead-in once again. Chicago Fire (1.7) was down a tenth in its second week, but up a tenth year-to-year in raw numbers.
  • On Fox, Scream Queens somehow found another new low at 0.6, but its lead-in comedies Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.9) and New Girl (0.9) were even.
  • Week three of No Tomorrow on the CW surged back to a whooping 0.3 and will hope to hold it in finals this time. The Flash had another preliminary 1.0 that will hope to adjust up and avoid a new low.
  • CBS was even across the board with NCIS (1.8), Bull (1.6) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.2).

Cablemetrics: Westworld, Shameless, Eyewitness, Falling Water

These numbers are current through Monday, October 17.

  • It was the only Sunday with no debate and no zombie drama, plus a season low Sunday Night Football, and HBO's Westworld took advantage in a big way by surging to a new high 0.92. Westworld's lead-out comedies Divorce (0.24) and Insecure (0.15) also looked better in their second weeks, and Showtime's Shameless (0.57) also had a big surge to a season high on this tweener Sunday.
    • The Walking Dead mothership will be back next week, and it geared up for the new season with a 0.90 for a two-hour recap special on Sunday.

SpotVault - The Odd Couple (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

The Odd Couple
Mondays, 9:30/8:30c, CBS

SpotVault - Jane the Virgin (CW) - 2016-17 Ratings

Jane the Virgin
Mondays, 9/8c, CW

SpotVault - Eyewitness (USA) - Fall 2016 Ratings

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/17/16

FINALS UPDATE: Dancing with the Stars (1.6) and The Big Bang Theory (3.5) and The Voice (2.7) and Gotham (1.2) adjusted up while Conviction (0.7) and 2 Broke Girls (1.5) adjusted down.

  • On the last Monday with an original The Big Bang Theory, most of the CBS lineup was fairly status quo; Big Bang (3.4) and Kevin Can Wait (2.1) each matched last week's finals, 2 Broke Girls (1.6) inched down from last week, and Scorpion (1.3) was steady as well. However, The Odd Couple (1.1) emerged as a weak link out of the gate, dropping nearly a third of its 2 Broke Girls lead-in at 9:30. It's a show that has always had competent retention of Big Bang's live viewership, but this looked more like the series that bombed when left on its own for the finale back in May.
  • On the CW, Supergirl (0.9) was down a couple tenths in its second week on its new network, but still shows potential to be the network's second-biggest series. After wasting last week's breakthrough premiere on a No Tomorrow encore (only to see that show drop 48% in its regular timeslot), this week brought the return of Jane the Virgin (0.4) at 9/8c. 0.4 was Jane's most frequent rating last season, but doesn't look quite as strong with a lead-in of this size.
  • The new dramas at 10/9c tried to hang on in their third weeks; if they actually hold in finals, Timeless (1.5) would be up week-to-week, and Conviction (0.8) steady. But their half-hour breakdowns (1.8/1.3 and 0.8/0.7 respectively) suggest they could be vulnerable to downticks in finals. It still may go down as a not-bad week for Timeless' prospects, since The Voice (2.6) was down at least a couple tenths week-to-week. Dancing with the Stars (1.5/1.6) was steady-ish for ABC.
  • On Fox, Lucifer (1.1) got back last week's lost tenth, while Gotham had yet another 1.1.

First Two Weeks, Frequency

Games still open: No Tomorrow (closes today!)

Rating: 0.36
Lead-in: Arrow (0.7)
Competition: Modern Family (2.2), Black-ish (1.5), Criminal Minds (1.4), Law and Order: SVU (1.4), Empire (3.4)

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/16/16

FINALS UPDATE: NCIS: Los Angeles (1.4) and Sunday Night Football (4.9) and The OT (5.5) adjusted up while The Simpsons (3.0) adjusted down.

  • After a debate preemption last week, the regular Sunday night lineups returned with ABC's Once Upon a Time (1.1) and Secrets and Lies (0.9) each matching two weeks ago (while Once inched down from last week before the debate). However, it was a brutal night for Quantico, which crashed to a new low 0.8 at 10/9c.
  • Fox had a big national NFL overrun, boosting The Simpsons' (3.1) annual Treehouse of Horror episode to way above its 2.6 after the NFL two weeks ago, and even ahead of the Treehouse episode last year (a 2.8 on 10/25/15). But that momentum didn't continue to Son of Zorn (1.5), which was actually down from its last episode leading out of a weaker Simpsons. Family Guy (1.6) also inched down, but The Last Man on Earth (1.1) gained a tenth.
  • CBS started on time and had some slippage from NCIS: Los Angeles (1.3) and Elementary (0.7), sandwiching a steady Madam Secretary (1.1).
  • NBC's Sunday Night Football appears headed for a season low, perhaps losing some audience to Game 2 of the NLCS on Fox Sports 1. More after finals!

Monday, October 17, 2016

First Two Weeks, No Tomorrow

Games still open: Timeless | Conviction (both close today!)

Rating: 0.48
Lead-in: The Flash (1.3)
Competition: ABC Vice Presidential Debate (1.2), CBS Vice Presidential Debate (1.1), NBC Vice Presidential Debate (1.9), Fox Vice Presidential Debate (0.7)

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/14/16

FINALS UPDATE: Last Man Standing (1.1) and Shark Tank (1.3) and Blue Bloods (1.3) adjusted up.

  • CBS' MacGyver (1.1) had some much-welcome steadiness in week four, and also looked a bit better in comparison with its lead-out dramas as  Hawaii Five-0 (1.2) inched down and Blue Bloods stayed at 1.2.
  • On ABC, Shark Tank (1.2) finally had something resembling a positive week, upticking to end its streak of 1.1's to start the season. However, ABC gave that tenth back with a season low Last Man Standing (1.0) in the lead-off spot. The silver lining is it made the retention look better for Dr. Ken, which maintained its usual 0.9.
  • It was status quo on Fox with Hell's Kitchen (1.0) and The Exorcist (0.7).
  • NBC continued its complacent Friday scheduling with the return of Caught on Camera (0.6) in the 8/7c hour, tying its low point from the spring (and also tying all the encores NBC aired here on the first three Fridays).
  • The CW drummed up little interest in encores of Supergirl (0.2) and Frequency (0.2).

ABC Daily Renewology for 2016-17

CBS Daily Renewology for 2016-17

NBC Daily Renewology for 2016-17

Fox Daily Renewology for 2016-17

The CW Daily Renewology for 2016-17

Friday, October 14, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/13/16

FINALS UPDATE: Thursday Night Football (4.7) adjusted up while Notorious (0.8) and Thursday Night Football Pregame (1.9) adjusted down.

  • Numbers and analysis coming shortly. The CW's Legends of Tomorrow and Supernatural returned. It was week four for the scripted offerings on ABC, NBC and Fox, while CBS had its penultimate Thursday Night Football and Fox Sports 1 was likely in the mix with a winner-take-all division series baseball game.

First Two Weeks, Conviction

Games still open: Timeless

Rating: 0.9
Lead-in: Dancing with the Stars Fall (1.7)
Competition: Scorpion (1.5), Timeless (1.8)

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/12/16

FINALS UPDATE: The Goldbergs (1.9) and Empire (3.5) adjusted up.

  • After a rough third Wednesday of the season, the broadcasters mostly stabilized or even bounced back this time. It was a particularly helpful night for CBS' Criminal Minds (1.7), which made up the majority of its huge week two drop. Its lead-in Survivor (2.0) and lead-out Code Black (1.1) also inched up.
  • ABC's 9/8c hour also had a surge, with Modern Family (2.4) back up by two tenths and Black-ish (1.8) up three. The surrounding hours of The Goldbergs (1.8) / Speechless (1.8) and Designated Survivor (1.6) stayed rock solid.
  • Fox's Lethal Weapon (1.9) had a big week four, recovering two tenths from last week's drop, and that's useful news as it prepares to air an original next week without Empire (3.4) on the same night.
  • One of the few stinkers of the night belonged to NBC's Blindspot (1.1), whose improbable run of 1.3's ended in emphatic fashion. It will also air next week without its usual lead-outs Law and Order: SVU and Chicago PD, which were both even at 1.4.
  • On the CW, Arrow matched its premiere night 0.7, but Frequency (0.3) lost a very precious tenth in week two.

First Two Weeks, Timeless

Rating: 1.8
Lead-in: The Voice Fall (3.0)
Competition: Conviction (0.9), Scorpion (1.5)

Cablemetrics: Westworld, Divorce, Insecure, American Horror Story

These numbers are current through Tuesday, October 11.

  • HBO's Westworld was down a tenth to a still solid 0.67 demo in week two. It was a highly irregular week, with no competition from Fear the Walking Dead but also a big presidential debate in its hour. Next week will be its only opportunity with no debate and no Walking Dead franchise in its hour (as The Walking Dead mothership is back on the 25th).

SpotVault - The Middle (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings

The Middle
Tuesdays, 8/7c, ABC

SpotVault - American Housewife (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings

American Housewife
Tuesdays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC

SpotVault - Fresh Off the Boat (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings

Fresh Off the Boat
Tuesdays, 9/8c, ABC

SpotVault - The Real O'Neals (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings

The Real O'Neals
Tuesdays, 9:30/8:30c, ABC

SpotVault - Chicago Fire (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings

Chicago Fire
Tuesdays, 10/9c, NBC

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/11/16

FINALS UPDATE: The Middle (1.8) and American Housewife (1.9) and Fresh Off the Boat (1.6) and NCIS (1.8) and The Voice (2.6) and The Flash (1.1) adjusted up while No Tomorrow (0.2) adjusted down.
  • A couple Renewology notes: we open American Housewife at 82%, which is actually a touch above Speechless' 80% during premiere week. In True, Housewife was a couple hundredths behind the Speechless premiere, but the ABC target is also a touch lower than it was during premiere week. 
  • And the bottom fell out for both Scream Queens (19%) and especially No Tomorrow (4%) this week. For SQ, this was mostly about the last two weeks of the Fox bubble rising, and it would've been much less noticeable on a week-to-week basis if it hadn't been preempted last week. No Tomorrow is given virtually zero chance at renewal, even with all the bonuses usually given to CBS Studios shows. If it keeps airing, it will probably go up from here, because I can't really see it actually getting lower than 0.2, and the formula expects continued declines. But... yeesh.
  • Didn't think anything could take ABC's Tuesday lineup off of the top bullet point, but NBC's drama This Is Us just did it. In its move to the 9/8c hour, coming off of a week off for a debate preemption, This Is Us (2.8) surged back to match its series premiere rating, beating its The Voice lead-in (2.5) and solidifying itself as the runaway breakout hit of the season. Megahit potential may be on the table here. 
    • It led into the season premiere of Chicago Fire (1.8), which had the same raw number as last year's premiere on this night (when it had a smaller lead-in from The Voice).
  • Meanwhile, it was a nice start for the aforementioned ABC lineup. The Middle (1.7) was four tenths below last year's opener, not a bad trend in a transition to a new night, and American Housewife (1.8) showed strong potential with a one-tenth build at 8:30. The momentum continued into the second hour as Fresh Off the Boat (1.5) bounced to its biggest rating since last November, and The Real O'Neals (1.2) beat all of its 8:30 results from last season. Agents of SHIELD rounded things off with another 0.9 at 10/9c.
  • Though NBC handled the debate preemption like a champ, CBS kept sliding. NCIS (1.7) was down again from its already shaky result leading into the VP debate last week, and Bull (1.6) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.2) fell big alongside it.
  • It was also a rough week on the CW, as The Flash was down to 1.0 and may actually get outrated by something on its own network this week. Meanwhile, No Tomorrow (0.3) ended up behaving just like many other shows that have premiered against debates, collapsing by two tenths.
  • Crossover night was no help to Brooklyn Nine-Nine (0.9) and New Girl (0.9), which each inched down, while Scream Queens clung to a lowly 0.7 at 9/8c.

Renewology Roundup: Analyzing the R% for MacGyver, SHIELD, Rosewood and more!

Eventually, these Renewology roundup posts will probably settle into some kind of consistent form. But in this post, I'm just gonna run through a few of the "weird" results that the Renewology formula has spit out in its first few weeks. Focusing on the oddities may not exactly be painting Renewology in the best light, obviously, but it's interesting to explore whether these things are flaws in the formula, or whether it knows something we don't know.

These numbers are through Monday, October 10. Some of this may be obsoleted shortly by last night's numbers, but I don't have a good estimate on them yet and wanted to get this post out.

SpotVault - Supergirl (CW) - 2016-17 Ratings

Mondays, 8/7c, CW

SpotVault - Insecure (HBO) - Fall 2016 Ratings

SpotVault - Divorce (HBO) - Fall 2016 Ratings

SpotVault - 2 Broke Girls (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

2 Broke Girls
Mondays, 9/8c, CBS

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/10/16

FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.4) adjusted up while Dancing with the Stars (1.6) and Conviction (0.8) and Timeless (1.4) and Lucifer (1.0) adjusted down.

  • Supergirl began life on the CW in strong fashion, with just over 3 million viewers and a 1.1 demo rating, just a couple tenths below its low point in season one on CBS and just a tenth or two below where The Flash opened last week. Being the network's second strongest show (above Arrow) certainly seems well within reach from here. But the lead-in was wasted on an encore of the No Tomorrow pilot (0.2).
  • In the 10:00 hour, it was not a good week for NBC's new drama Timeless (1.5), which took a typical-ish drop but could not really afford that after starting well behind previous timeslot occupants last week. It can't really blame lead-in The Voice (2.8/2.9), which was only down about a tenth from last Monday. Fellow 10/9c newbie Conviction on ABC preliminarily matched last week's 0.9, which (much like Notorious' week two hold) at least would seem to secure its short-term future if it holds. (But the network had a Charlotte preemption, so it may not.)
  • CBS expanded to a second comedy hour on Monday with the one-hour return of 2 Broke Girls (1.7/1.7), which will anchor the 9/8c hour going forward. It matched last season's raw high point and actually beat the year-ago November premiere. It led out of The Big Bang Theory (3.3) and Kevin Can Wait (2.1), which were both down just a touch more in week four. Scorpion (1.3) was down a couple tenths in its move to a 10/9c start time.
  • Just like for much of last season, Fox's Gotham (1.1) proved quite resilient to Supergirl competition, inching up at 8/7c. Lucifer matched last week's 1.1.

    Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/9/16

    FINALS UPDATE: Presidential Debate (2.8) and Presidential Debate (3.8) and Sunday Night Football (5.9) adjusted up while America's Funniest Home Videos (0.9) and Once Upon a Time (1.2) and Presidential Debate Analysis (2.3) and NFL Overrun (5.2) and 60 Minutes (2.6) and Football Night in America (2.9) and The Simpsons (R) (0.9) and Son of Zorn (R) (0.9) adjusted down.

    FINALS UPDATE: Presidential Debate (2.8) and Presidential Debate (3.8) and Sunday Night Football (5.9) adjusted up while America's Funniest Home Videos (0.9) and Once Upon a Time (1.2) and NFL Overrun (5.2) and 60 Minutes (2.6) and Football Night in America (2.9) and The Simpsons (R) (0.9) and Son of Zorn (R) (0.9) adjusted down.

    • Once again, the broadcasters (mostly) stepped aside from normal programming at 9:00 ET to air the second presidential debate. However, in this case, NBC stuck with its regularly scheduled Sunday Night Football. Without NBC on board, the early overnights across all networks were down 19% from the enormous first presidential debate.
    • That left another miniature version of the usual primetime entertainment night, and even less interesting than it could've been since Fox snuck in a repeat of Son of Zorn (1.0) at 8:30. So the only entertainment originals were ABC's America's Funniest Home Videos (1.2) and Once Upon a Time (1.3), and Fox's comedies Bob's Burgers (1.2) and The Simpsons (1.5). Preliminarily, all were up from last week, perhaps getting some help from debate pre-tune/West Coast post-tune (and local NFL overruns in Fox's case). With the national NFL overrun, CBS' 60 Minutes averaged a preliminary 2.6 in the 8:00 hour.

    Monday, October 10, 2016

    Week 4 Best Case/Worst Case: American Housewife, Supergirl, The Middle and more!

    Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering this week.

    Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/7/16

    • Week three brought another drop for CBS' MacGyver (1.1). It still eked out a win in the 8:00 hour, edging the ABC comedies, and it still matched the year-ago episode of The Amazing Race in raw numbers. But this time it was the outright lowest of the CBS dramas, trailing Hawaii Five-0 (1.3) and Blue Bloods (1.2).
    • ABC's anchors Last Man Standing and Shark Tank each posted their third straight 1.1, while Dr. Ken (0.9) got back a useful tenth at 8:30 and 20/20 (0.8) gave one up.
    • Fox's The Exorcist snuck back up to 0.7 after its enormous week two drop, while Hell's Kitchen was even at 1.0. 
    • And NBC repeated the Timeless pilot (0.6) leading into a soft Dateline (0.7/0.8). The network will return to the original game at 8/7c with the return of Caught on Camera next week.

      Friday, October 7, 2016

      Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/6/16

      FINALS UPDATE: Thursday Night Football (4.1) and Superstore (1.4) adjusted up while Grey's Anatomy (2.2) and Notorious (0.9) and How to Get Away with Murder (1.2) and Thursday Night Football Pregame (1.8) adjusted down.

      • ABC's faux-TGIT was down a tenth in the first two hours in week three. That made Grey's Anatomy (2.3) the all-star again (beating the year-ago evening in raw numbers for the second straight week!), Notorious (1.0) the weak link but still close to its awful premiere, and How to Get Away with Murder (1.3) still a grower at 10/9c.
      • NBC's lineup came back from the brink a bit in its third outing, with The Good Place (1.4) even more clearly solidifying itself as the night's biggest positive. On this night, it was actually NBC's highest-rated series outright! It was sandwiched by Superstore (1.3) and Chicago Med (1.3), which matched last week, while The Blacklist (1.2) got a tenth back at 10/9c.
      • On Fox, Rosewood (0.9) continued its attempt at redemption, picking up a tenth for the second straight week since its black hole 0.7 premiere, while Pitch steadied at 1.0 in the 9:00 hour.
      • CBS was back in the Thursday Night Football game, with a rather awful 2.5ish prelim from 8:30 to 11:00. It should adjust up more than most of these games since it had two West Coast teams.

      First Two Weeks, Son of Zorn

      Games still open: MacGyver (closes today!) | The Exorcist (closes today!)

      WEEK ZERO (Sunday 8/7c preview on September 11)
      Rating: 2.4
      Lead-in: The OT (5.2)
      Competition: Celebrity Family Feud (1.3), Big Brother (1.8), Football Night in America p2 (2.9)

      SpotVault - Arrow (CW) - 2016-17 Ratings

      Wednesdays, 8/7c, CW

      SpotVault - Frequency (CW) - 2016-17 Ratings

      Wednesdays, 9/8c, CW

      Thursday, October 6, 2016

      Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/5/16

      FINALS UPDATE: Survivor (1.9) and Law and Order: SVU (1.4) and Chicago PD (1.4) and Empire (3.4) adjusted up while Black-ish (1.5) adjusted down.

      • Speechless was definitely the winner of the night, rising to 92%, and the model's early Blindspot optimism continues to be validated. The CBS and NBC veterans all dropped a lot more than expected this week, and Criminal Minds in particular does not look like a complete lock based on this point. Code Black (33%) dropped less in True thanks to its lead-in's collapse, but it's still on the wrong side of the bubble. Renewology is down on Frequency (31%); while it had a higher True than the No Tomorrow premiere, the studio factor makes its chances lower.
      • Premiere week continued on the CW with the return of Arrow (0.7) and the disappointing debut of new drama Frequency (0.4). For Arrow, it seemed like the show took a step down about midway through last season, and there's certainly no sign of a recovery with this return. Frequency can maybe make the argument this is better than No Tomorrow's 0.5 with a much bigger lead-in. But even if it is, it's not by much, and likely not by enough to put it ahead of NT after accounting for the network's CBS Studios bias. The network's hopes for improvement this season now pretty much hinge on Supergirl, which premieres on Monday.
      • Week three on ABC saw a strong third outing for Speechless (1.8), which was steady to match its downticking The Goldbergs (1.8) lead-in. The slippage continued at 10/9c for Designated Survivor (1.6), but it's still nothing alarming thus far. And in the 9/8c hour, Modern Family (2.2) preliminarily edged down, but Black-ish (1.6) matched last week.
      • It was not a good week for either party in the CBS vs. NBC crime drama duels, as cast-overhauled Criminal Minds (1.4) completely fell off a cliff in week two and brought Code Black (1.0) down with it. (Survivor (1.8) also had a rather sizable drop at 8/7c.) Meanwhile, Law and Order: SVU (1.3) and Chicago PD (1.3) took irregularly large week three drops at the same time. All of this seemingly continues to brighten the prospects for NBC's lead-off drama Blindspot, which managed yet another 1.3 at 8/7c.
      • Fox's Empire (3.3) was down a few more tenths in its third week, and this time it brought Lethal Weapon (1.7) with it. Still, Weapon continues to compare quite favorably with the year-ago Rosewood (which had a 1.8 rating with a 5.1 lead-out).

      First Two Weeks, The Exorcist

      Games still open: This Is Us | Pitch (closes today!) | The Good Place (closes today!) | Notorious (closes today!) | MacGyver

      WEEK ONE
      Rating: 1.0
      Lead-in: Hell's Kitchen (1.1)
      Competition: Shark Tank (1.1), Hawaii Five-0 (1.4), Dateline Fri (1.0), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R) (0.3)

      First Two Weeks, MacGyver

      Games still open: This Is Us | Pitch (closes today!) | The Good Place (closes today!) | Notorious (closes today!)

      WEEK ONE
      Rating: 1.7
      Lead-in: Local programming
      Competition: Last Man Standing (1.1), Dr. Ken (0.9), Superstore (R) (0.6), The Good Place (R) (0.6), Hell's Kitchen (1.1), Masters of Illusion (0.2), Masters of Illusion (R) (0.2)

      The 2016-17 Climate Center: Renewology Targets

      SpotVault - The Flash (CW) - 2016-17 Ratings

      The Flash
      Tuesdays, 8/7c, CW

      SpotVault - No Tomorrow (CW) - 2016-17 Ratings

      No Tomorrow
      Tuesdays, 9/8c, CW

      Wednesday, October 5, 2016

      Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/4/16

      FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (1.9) and The Flash (1.3) adjusted up.
      • Renewology opens with a very indecisive take on No Tomorrow (50%). Keep in mind that the Renewology formula contains a significant studio adjustment with CW predictions. Because No Tomorrow is primarily from CBS Studios, its target is nearly an entire tenth lower than it would be as a Warner Bros. show. In CW world, that is huge; it would be listed at just 21% if this component didn't exist.
      • For the second time this season, the entertainment night on the big four ended at 9/8c for a simulcast of a debate. Unlike last week's presidential debate, it looks like the vice presidential debate was a ratings disappointment, with a significant drop in overnights from the corresponding 2012 edition.
      • So the only broadcast entertainment option in the 9/8c hour was on the CW, and it was the premiere of new drama No Tomorrow (0.5). Leading out of mismatched The Flash (1.2), which was preliminarily a couple tenths behind last season's premiere, it managed just 40%ish retention. That's not a good sign, because typically these debate situations have actually been a good thing for premieres, and they've crashed the next week. Could we actually see this show pull an Emily Owens, MD or Beauty and the Beast and drop all the way to 0.3 in week two, even with a lead-in this big?
      • Meanwhile, the one hour of big four programming was less interesting than last week's, with only veterans NCIS (1.8), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.0), New Girl (1.0) and Dancing with the Stars (1.4) in the mix, plus a blind auditions recap for The Voice (2.0). It looks like a relative stinker for NCIS, as this would be a new series low if it holds.

      Best Case/Worst Case: Frequency, Arrow

      Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight.

      Cablemetrics: Westworld, Shameless, Fear the Walking Dead, American Horror Story

      These numbers are current through Monday, October 3.

      • HBO's much-hyped sci-fi drama Westworld opened to a 0.77 demo rating and just under 2 million total viewers on Sunday night. It didn't skew that young (with half its viewership falling in the 18-49 demo) but it was definitely super-male, with a 0.96 in males 18-49 vs. 0.58 in females 18-49. I've already seen a lot of comparisons to the modest beginnings of Game of Thrones' run back in spring 2011 (just 2.222 million viewers and a 0.9). Clearly, this is a much better start than that when looking at the 2016 environment, but it's also clear that very, very few shows take the kind of trajectory that Thrones has since then. With this start, it's not hard to envision Westworld as either an elite cable drama or a disappointment. (Or both?)

      SpotVault - Westworld (HBO) - Fall 2016 Ratings

      SpotVault - Timeless (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings

      Mondays, 10/9c, NBC

      SpotVault - Shameless (Showtime) - Fall 2016 Ratings

      SpotVault - Scorpion (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

      Mondays, 10/9c, CBS

      SpotVault - Madam Secretary (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

      Madam Secretary
      Sundays, 9/8c, CBS

      SpotVault - Elementary (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

      Sundays, 10/9c, CBS

      SpotVault - Conviction (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings

      Mondays, 10/9c, ABC

      SpotVault - America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings

      America's Funniest Home Videos
      Sundays, 7/6c, ABC

      Tuesday, October 4, 2016

      Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/3/16

      FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.5) and The Voice (3.0) adjusted up while Conviction (0.9) and Kevin Can Wait (2.2) and Scorpion (1.5) and Timeless (1.8) and Supergirl (R) (0.2) and Supergirl (R) (0.2) adjusted down.
      • The Conviction downtick took it to just a barely better premiere in True than Notorious, and thus a big renewal underdog at 25%. Timeless is still a slight favorite at 63%. After bigger than expected hits due to the Minneapolis preemption, CBS' Kevin Can Wait was down to 80%, and Scorpion still fine but much less impressive at 77%.

      • The model makes Timeless an OK renewal favorite at 70%, and Conviction only a slight underdog at 40%, based on the prelims. It looks like they could both adjust down in finals, so stay tuned.
      • At least based on the prelims, it looks like the formula underestimated Kevin Can Wait's 2.7 on a very high-viewed night last week, as Kevin inched up in True and finally took a big jump in R% (86%). It was also a strong start for Scorpion at 91%.
      • Three dramas opened their seasons in the 10/9c hour, and the week one edge went to NBC's Timeless (1.9), leading out of The Voice (2.8/3.1). However, Timeless was a pale imitation of the dramas that have popped in this timeslot in past years, like The Blacklist, Revolution and Blindspot. They were all in the neighborhood of a 200 Plus on premiere night, and Timeless looks more like a 150 at best. It was also well behind where The Good Place (2.3) opened two weeks ago. It could still be a success with this start, but it's clearly not gonna be able to absorb a late-season collapse the way those other shows could.
      • If NBC was 'meh,' ABC was a few notches below that with the start of its own new drama Conviction (1.0), leading out of Dancing with the Stars (1.6/1.7) and dropping steeply at the half (1.1 -> 0.8). It will have to hold up very well just to be a Castle-level performer in the hour, and Castle-level got cancelled last season.
      • On CBS, it was the veteran Scorpion (1.8) returning for one last two-hour drama Monday on CBS. It'll be in just the 10/9c hour going forward, but this was a great start, very close to the Plus of its 2.2 premiere a year ago.
      • Scorpion had a lot of help from Kevin Can Wait (2.4), which still looks really legit at 8:30 out of The Big Bang Theory (3.4). Though it came down from last week, which was probably inflated by debate pre-tune, going from a 2.6 premiere to this 2.4 two weeks later is still an exceptional hold.
      • Fox brought up the rear with a rough week three drop for Gotham (1.0), and Lucifer (1.1) lost a couple tenths in week two after a debate preemption last week.

      Best Case/Worst Case: No Tomorrow, The Flash

      Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight.

      First Two Weeks, Notorious

      Games still open: Bull (closes today!) | This Is Us | Speechless | Designated Survivor | Lethal Weapon | Pitch | The Good Place

      WEEK ONE
      Rating: 1.1
      Lead-in: Grey's Anatomy (2.5)
      Competition: Thursday Night Football (6.1), Chicago Med (1.4), Pitch (1.1), Supernatural (R) (0.2)

      First Two Weeks, The Good Place

      Games still open: Bull (closes today!) | This Is Us | Speechless | Designated Survivor | Lethal Weapon | Pitch

      WEEK ZERO (Monday 10/9c preview)
      Rating: 2.3
      Lead-in: The Voice Fall (3.3)
      Competition: Match Game (0.9), Movie: The Case Of: JonBenet Ramsey p2 (1.8)

      Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/2/16

      FINALS UPDATE: Sunday Night Football (6.7) and NFL Overrun (7.7) and The OT (4.6) and Family Guy (1.7) adjusted up while 60 Minutes (1.3) and Football Night in America (2.7) adjusted down.

      • The True formula is clearly overreacting (or under-adjusting) a bit to Fox's overrun-boosted numbers, as Son of Zorn and Last Man on Earth each got big week-to-week bumps. This should eventually settle down when the sample size gets larger and we're using more of a blend of with-overrun and without-overrun numbers. Like all the other Fox shows, they also benefit a lot from the one-tenth shift in the Fox target vs. last week. Last week they were 59% and 50%; I would advise looking at these shows somewhere in the middle of this week and last week.
      • On ABC, Once and Secrets each lost a touch from last week, while Quantico's week two hold helped it gain in R%.
      • CBS' Madam Secretary (20%) and Elementary (25%) open at the low end of the CBS totem pole. What this is saying is that, based on ratings alone, they should be in a ton of trouble. Fortunately for them, these are among the few shows whose fates will have little to nothing to do with the ratings.
      • Week two for ABC's tri-drama Sunday saw a somewhat steep week two decline for Once Upon a Time (1.1), despite a bigger 7/6c lead-in from the return of America's Funniest Home Videos (1.0). At 9/8c, Secrets and Lies (0.9) inched into fractional territory. Quantico (1.0) was a win by comparison, matching last week.
      • At least in the prelims, NCIS: Los Angeles (1.5) had an impressive start at 8/7c, but CBS had some very lengthy local overruns due to a weather delay in its late game, so take it with a grain of salt. What we do know is that it's going to be a long season in the night's last two hours, as Madam Secretary (1.1) and Elementary (0.8) returned. (And Madam may even be affected a bit by the delay as well.)
      • On Fox, the national NFL lead-in bumped The Simpsons (2.6) up by more than a point week-to-week, Son of Zorn (1.6) by a half point, Family Guy (1.6) by 0.3 and The Last Man on Earth (1.0) by 0.1.
      • NBC had a Sunday Night Football blowout, while on cable, HBO's new drama Westworld clashed with AMC's finale of Fear the Walking Dead and the return of Shameless on Showtime. More on that clash to come.

      Monday, October 3, 2016

      Best Case/Worst Case: Conviction, Timeless, Scorpion

      Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight.

      First Two Weeks, Pitch

      Games still open: Kevin Can Wait (closes today!) | Bull | This Is Us | Speechless | Designated Survivor | Lethal Weapon

      WEEK ONE
      Rating: 1.1
      Lead-in: Rosewood (0.7)
      Competition: Notorious (1.1), Thursday Night Football (6.1), Chicago Med (1.4), Supernatural (R) (0.2)

      First Two Weeks, Lethal Weapon

      Games still open: Kevin Can Wait (closes today!) | Bull | This Is Us | Speechless | Designated Survivor
      WEEK ONE
      Rating: 2.2
      Lead-in: Local programming
      Competition: The Goldbergs (2.0), Speechless (2.0), Survivor (2.3), Blindspot (1.3), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R) (0.3)

      Spotted Ratings, Friday 9/30/16

      FINALS UPDATE: Last Man Standing (1.1) adjusted up while MacGyver (1.3) and The Exorcist (0.6) and Masters of Illusion (0.3) and Masters of Illusion (R) (0.2) and Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R) (0.2) adjusted down.

      • Friday had another set of results that was more about the networks than the show itself. The Exorcist dropped only a bit, to 40%, despite a huge drop in its own numbers, while MacGyver took a hit to 60% as its network target went up by almost a tenth.
      • After four days of consistently strong week two holds for new series, the streak finally ended on Friday. Fortunately for MacGyver (1.4), it was so huge on premiere night that a typical-ish 18% week two drop still made it the top Friday show for the second straight week. And its lead-outs Hawaii Five-0 (1.3) and Blue Bloods (1.3) were unfazed by the slightly lower Mac, remaining extremely healthy on a year-to-year basis.
      • Fox's The Exorcist (0.7) did not have the same kind of cushion, so its steep 30% drop was bad news. It was well behind its lead-in from Hell's Kitchen (1.0), which also inched down.
      • Those lost viewers on other networks didn't come back to ABC in week two; instead, comedies Last Man Standing (1.0) and Dr. Ken (0.8) both inched down, and Shark Tank stayed at last week's very underwhelming 1.1. At least 20/20 was back up to 0.9?
      • NBC stayed in filler mode with a repeat of This Is Us (0.6) and Dateline (0.9/1.0).

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