Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/4/16


FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (1.9) and The Flash (1.3) adjusted up.
  • Renewology opens with a very indecisive take on No Tomorrow (50%). Keep in mind that the Renewology formula contains a significant studio adjustment with CW predictions. Because No Tomorrow is primarily from CBS Studios, its target is nearly an entire tenth lower than it would be as a Warner Bros. show. In CW world, that is huge; it would be listed at just 21% if this component didn't exist.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • For the second time this season, the entertainment night on the big four ended at 9/8c for a simulcast of a debate. Unlike last week's presidential debate, it looks like the vice presidential debate was a ratings disappointment, with a significant drop in overnights from the corresponding 2012 edition.
  • So the only broadcast entertainment option in the 9/8c hour was on the CW, and it was the premiere of new drama No Tomorrow (0.5). Leading out of mismatched The Flash (1.2), which was preliminarily a couple tenths behind last season's premiere, it managed just 40%ish retention. That's not a good sign, because typically these debate situations have actually been a good thing for premieres, and they've crashed the next week. Could we actually see this show pull an Emily Owens, MD or Beauty and the Beast and drop all the way to 0.3 in week two, even with a lead-in this big?
  • Meanwhile, the one hour of big four programming was less interesting than last week's, with only veterans NCIS (1.8), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.0), New Girl (1.0) and Dancing with the Stars (1.4) in the mix, plus a blind auditions recap for The Voice (2.0). It looks like a relative stinker for NCIS, as this would be a new series low if it holds.
FULL TABLE (FINALS):

ShowTimeslotRenewology
Name
A18-49
Last
y2y
TLa
Ty2y
R%
Last
True
Last
Dancing with the Stars Special1.4
+0.1
+8%
-20%
1.37+0.01
ABC Vice Presidential Debate1.2
+3%
-8%
1.01
ABC Vice Presidential Debate Analysis0.9
-64%
0%
+29%
0.93
ABC:
+4%
-10%
NCIS1.9
-0.2
-14%
-10%
-14%
99%+0%1.78-0.13
CBS Vice Presidential Debate1.1
-38%
-35%
0.89
CBS Vice Presidential Debate Analysis0.9
-57%
-40%
-47%
0.98
CBS:
-27%
-29%
The Voice Tue Fall2.0
-1.3
-9%
-39%
-9%
1.76-0.97
NBC Vice Presidential Debate1.9
-38%
0%
1.42
NBC Debate Analysis1.4
-50%
-46%
+8%
1.22
NBC:
-40%
-3%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine1.0
0
-23%
0%
-17%
92%-4%1.09-0.06
New Girl1.0
0
0%
0%
94%-2%1.18-0.04
Fox Vice Presidential Debate0.7
0%
-42%
0.74
Fox:
0%
-26%
The Flash1.3
-7%
+333%
-7%
100%1.18
No Tomorrow0.5
+150%
-29%
50%0.36
CW:
+260%
-14%
All:
-14%
-16%
Atlanta0.40
-0.01
Halt and Catch Fire0.13
+0.03
+8%

The full table can be sorted by clicking any of the category names at the top. Hover over 'Last', 'y2y' and timeslot numbers for more information on the previous episode(s) being compared.


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