Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/2/16


FINALS UPDATE: Sunday Night Football (6.7) and NFL Overrun (7.7) and The OT (4.6) and Family Guy (1.7) adjusted up while 60 Minutes (1.3) and Football Night in America (2.7) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • The True formula is clearly overreacting (or under-adjusting) a bit to Fox's overrun-boosted numbers, as Son of Zorn and Last Man on Earth each got big week-to-week bumps. This should eventually settle down when the sample size gets larger and we're using more of a blend of with-overrun and without-overrun numbers. Like all the other Fox shows, they also benefit a lot from the one-tenth shift in the Fox target vs. last week. Last week they were 59% and 50%; I would advise looking at these shows somewhere in the middle of this week and last week.
  • On ABC, Once and Secrets each lost a touch from last week, while Quantico's week two hold helped it gain in R%.
  • CBS' Madam Secretary (20%) and Elementary (25%) open at the low end of the CBS totem pole. What this is saying is that, based on ratings alone, they should be in a ton of trouble. Fortunately for them, these are among the few shows whose fates will have little to nothing to do with the ratings.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • Week two for ABC's tri-drama Sunday saw a somewhat steep week two decline for Once Upon a Time (1.1), despite a bigger 7/6c lead-in from the return of America's Funniest Home Videos (1.0). At 9/8c, Secrets and Lies (0.9) inched into fractional territory. Quantico (1.0) was a win by comparison, matching last week.
  • At least in the prelims, NCIS: Los Angeles (1.5) had an impressive start at 8/7c, but CBS had some very lengthy local overruns due to a weather delay in its late game, so take it with a grain of salt. What we do know is that it's going to be a long season in the night's last two hours, as Madam Secretary (1.1) and Elementary (0.8) returned. (And Madam may even be affected a bit by the delay as well.)
  • On Fox, the national NFL lead-in bumped The Simpsons (2.6) up by more than a point week-to-week, Son of Zorn (1.6) by a half point, Family Guy (1.6) by 0.3 and The Last Man on Earth (1.0) by 0.1.
  • NBC had a Sunday Night Football blowout, while on cable, HBO's new drama Westworld clashed with AMC's finale of Fear the Walking Dead and the return of Shameless on Showtime. More on that clash to come.
FULL TABLE (FINALS):

ShowTimeslotRenewology
Name
A18-49
Last
y2y
TLa
Ty2y
R%
Last
True
Last
America's Funniest Home Videos1.0
-9%
+67%
+54%
1.14
Once Upon a Time1.1
-0.2
-39%
-15%
-39%
80%-2%1.08-0.22
Secrets and Lies0.9
-0.1
-10%
-31%
55%+3%0.91-0.12
Quantico1.0
0.0
-47%
0%
-47%
93%+10%1.27-0.03
ABC:
+3%
-29%
60 Minutes1.3
-1.3
-7%
-67%
-7%
1.32-0.06
NCIS: Los Angeles1.5
0.0
+25%
-27%
+7%
74%+7%1.31+0.03
Madam Secretary1.1
-21%
-27%
-8%
23%1.02
Elementary0.8
-27%
-36%
-20%
28%1.07
CBS:
-43%
-6%
Football Night in America2.7
-0.4
-13%
-19%
1.85-0.30
Sunday Night Football6.7
-0.9
-23%
-12%
-23%
4.64-0.43
NBC:
-12%
-27%
NFL Overrun7.7
+2.4
+7%
+862%
+7%
6.61+2.62
The OT4.6
-0.6
+10%
+318%
-6%
2.77+0.31
The Simpsons2.6
+1.2
-4%
+86%
-4%
100%+10%1.58+0.28
Son of Zorn1.6
+0.5
+45%
-16%
88%+29%1.08+0.09
Family Guy1.7
+0.4
0%
+31%
0%
99%+12%1.51+0.24
The Last Man on Earth1.0
+0.1
-33%
+11%
-33%
81%+32%0.97+0.04
Fox:
+191%
-4%
Fear the Walking Dead1.59
+0.11
Fear the Walking Dead1.26
-0.33
Westworld0.77
Shameless0.49
-22%
The Strain0.35
-0.05
-42%
Masters of Sex0.15
+0.06
-6%

The full table can be sorted by clicking any of the category names at the top. Hover over 'Last', 'y2y' and timeslot numbers for more information on the previous episode(s) being compared.


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