Monday, September 30, 2019

Renewology Week 1: A Very Bad Premiere Week

I usually use this weekly column space to really dig into the weeds of individual bubble shows. We will be doing some of that later on in this post.

But this has been a week in which the big picture really has to be addressed at the top, because it has been an uncommonly dire one. We obviously need more data before getting a strong sense of just how bad, but the news was moderately discouraging even in the realm of usually reliable returning players. It's a rough sign when things like The Voice, One Chicago and Grey's Anatomy are returning with 10-20% year-to-year declines and being hailed as some of the biggest winners of the entire week.

However, the returnees have not been the real story. Whatever their drops end up being, everyone will have to live with it. The real story has been the rather wholesale rejection of the new network offerings. This does not seem to be a "general decline of linear ratings" story, but rather a particularly terrible class. There had been little indication prior to this year that broadcast was having trouble getting new shows sampled, at least on a relative basis. Maybe that will become a trend, but you wouldn't expect it to happen all in one year like this.

Saturday, September 28, 2019

Spotted Ratings, Friday 9/27/19

FINALS UPDATE: 20/20 (0.6) adjusted up while Masters of Illusion (0.1), The Big Stage (0.1) and Red Bull Peaking (0.1) adjusted down.

  • A revamped CBS Friday saw Hawaii Five-0 (0.7) move to 8/7c while Magnum P.I. (0.6) took over at 9/8c and let into Blue Bloods (0.6). P.I. was only a tenth below where we last saw it on Monday in the early spring, but still contributed to the night in general looking weaker; Five-0 was two tenths below last year's premiere, and Blue Bloods was down three tenths.
  • ABC's American Housewife (0.7) had a solid start in its own Friday move, tying Five-0 as the top program of the night and actually beating the year-ago premiere of Fresh Off the Boat. (It also tied last season's AH finale on a Tuesday.) Meanwhile, Fresh Off the Boat (0.5) moved to the 8:30 slot and tied last year's Speechless premiere.
  • The duel of two-hour newsmagazines was just about even between Dateline (0.6/0.6) and 20/20 (0.5/0.6), while Fox had a one-hour WWE special (0.4) previewing next week's premiere of SmackDown.

SpotVault - Dateline (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Fridays, 9/8c, NBC

SpotVault - Blue Bloods (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Blue Bloods
Fridays, 10/9c, CBS

SpotVault - Magnum P.I. (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Magnum P.I.
Fridays, 9/8c, CBS

SpotVault - Hawaii Five-0 (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Hawaii Five-0
Fridays, 8/7c, CBS

SpotVault - 20/20 (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Fridays, 9/8c, ABC

SpotVault - Fresh Off the Boat (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Fresh Off the Boat
Fridays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC

SpotVault - American Housewife (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

American Housewife
Fridays, 8/7c, ABC

SpotVault - Thursday Night Football (Fox) - Fall 2019 Ratings

Thursday Night Football on Fox

Friday, September 27, 2019

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/26/19

FINALS UPDATE: Young Sheldon (1.1) and Thursday Night Football (5.6, +1.7) adjusted up while A Million Little Things (1.0) and Evil (0.6) adjusted down.

  • Numbers and analysis to come. Premiere Thursday debuts included the NBC comedies Perfect Harmony and Sunnyside, along with CBS comedies The Unicorn and Carol's second Act along with drama Evil.

SpotVault - Law and Order: SVU (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Law and Order: SVU
Thursdays, 10/9c, NBC

SpotVault - Sunnyside (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Thursdays, 9:30/8:30c, NBC

SpotVault - The Good Place (NBC) - Fall 2019 Ratings

The Good Place
Thursdays, 9/8c, NBC

SpotVault - Perfect Harmony (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Perfect Harmony
Thursdays, 8:30/7:30c, NBC

SpotVault - Superstore (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Thursdays, 8/7c, NBC

SpotVault - Evil (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Thursdays, 10/9c, CBS

SpotVault - Carol's Second Act (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Carol's Second Act
Thursdays, 9:30/8:30c, CBS

SpotVault - Mom (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Thursdays, 9/8c, CBS

SpotVault - The Unicorn (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

The Unicorn
Thursdays, 8:30/7:30c, CBS

SpotVault - Young Sheldon (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Young Sheldon
Thursdays, 8/7c, CBS

SpotVault - How to Get Away with Murder (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

How to Get Away with Murder
Thursdays, 10/9c, ABC

SpotVault - A Million Little Things (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

A Million Little Things
Thursdays, 10/9c, ABC

SpotVault - Grey's Anatomy (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Grey's Anatomy
Thursdays, 9/8c, ABC

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/25/19

FINALS UPDATE: Modern Family (1.1) adjusted up.

  • Premiere Wednesday belonged to Fox's The Masked Singer (2.3/2.6), as the megahit competition reality show made its move to the fall. The show was down a bit in Plus from its 3.0 series premiere in January, as well as the 2.6/3.6 finale night, but these were about the raw numbers the show pulled throughout the mid-section of its first season.
  • Almost everyone else had a tough time against the Masked mammoth. ABC's all-returnee comedy lineup of The Goldbergs (1.0), Schooled (0.8), Modern Family (1.0) and Single Parents (0.7) was down a third or more from last year, while 10/9c drama newbie Stumptown (0.7) was a total viewers draw but could only match SP in the demo (and was well behind the year-ago 1.1 A Million Little Things premiere).
  • CBS' 90-minute Survivor premiere (1.2/1.3) and 90-minute Big Brother finale (1.3/1.2) were both down 25%ish from the year-ago Premiere Wednesday. By far the steadiest was NBC, as the second year of One Chicago (1.0/1.1/1.1) opened up with roughly league average year-to-year declines.

SpotVault - The Masked Singer (Fox) - Fall 2019 Ratings

The Masked Singer
Wednesdays, 8/7c, Fox

SpotVault - Chicago PD (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Chicago PD
Wednesdays, 10/9c, NBC

SpotVault - Chicago Fire (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Chicago Fire
Wednesdays, 9/8c, NBC

SpotVault - Chicago Med (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Chicago Med
Wednesdays, 8/7c, NBC

SpotVault - Survivor (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Wednesdays, 8/7c, CBS

SpotVault - Stumptown (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Wednesdays, 10/9c, ABC

Status: ENDING after this season (confirmed on 9/16/2020)

SpotVault - Single Parents (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Single Parents
Wednesdays, 9:30/8:30c, ABC

SpotVault - Modern Family (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Modern Family
Wednesdays, 9/8c, ABC

SpotVault - Schooled (ABC) - Fall 2019 Ratings

Wednesdays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC

SpotVault - The Goldbergs (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

The Goldbergs
Wednesdays, 8/7c, ABC

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/24/19

FINALS UPDATE: Black-ish (0.9) and The Voice (1.6) adjusted up while New Amsterdam (1.0) adjusted down.

  • ABC began its scripted newbie rollout with comedy Mixed-ish (0.9) at 9/8c and drama Emergence (0.8) at 10/9c. Mixed-ish built by a notch on 8:30 sophomore Bless This Mess (0.8) and also outrated its lead-out, the Black-ish mothership (0.8). Meanwhile, the Emergence premiere looked a little worse than the year-ago The Rookie opener (1.0 leading out of a 0.9 Splitting Up Together) but it still has a little cushion to work with.
    • The ABC night began with The Conners (1.3), which remained the runaway standout of the lineup but tied its low rating from season one and was down close to half from the year-ago 2.4 series premiere.
  • On NBC, the rough drops from late last season continued for This Is Us (1.8), preliminarily down by a whooping 40% from last year's premiere. But it may get some help in finals since it ran eight minutes into the 10:00 hour. That could also hurt New Amsterdam (1.1) in finals, though if it somehow holds it would be the show's highest rating since last November.
    • Leading off the night was The Voice (1.5), which had a much worse y2y trend on Tuesday than on Monday (not picking up as much heat before a weaker TIU).
  • A revamped Fox Tuesday began with The Resident (0.8) tying its spring low and Empire (1.0) opening its final season on a new series low (down almost half from last year's 1.9 premiere).
  • And CBS looked strong with the Cote de Pablo return on NCIS (1.3) but had significant year-to-year declines later in the night with FBI (0.9) and NCIS: New Orleans (0.7).

The 2019-20 Daily Year-to-Date Rankings

This is a sortable list of series and ratings averages for the 2019-20 season, including every series that has a page in the SpotVault or War of 18-49. For the first time, it is also a filterable list, meaning you can boil the table down to just one network, one category of programming or only new shows. (The striped formatting looks kinda ugly when filtered, but hopefully that is worth the added functionality.)

SpotVault - Empire (Fox) - 2019-20 Ratings

Tuesdays, 9/8c, Fox

SpotVault - The Resident (Fox) - 2019-20 Ratings

The Resident
Tuesdays, 8/7c, Fox

SpotVault - New Amsterdam (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

New Amsterdam
Tuesdays, 10/9c, NBC

SpotVault - This Is Us (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

This Is Us
Tuesdays, 9/8c, NBC

SpotVault - NCIS: New Orleans (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

NCIS: New Orleans
Tuesdays, 10/9c, CBS

SpotVault - FBI (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Tuesdays, 9/8c, CBS

SpotVault - NCIS (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Tuesdays, 8/7c, CBS

SpotVault - Emergence (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Tuesdays, 10/9c, ABC

SpotVault - Black-ish (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Tuesdays, 9:30/8:30c, ABC

SpotVault - Mixed-ish (ABC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Tuesdays, 9/8c, ABC

SpotVault - Bless This Mess (ABC) - Fall 2019 Ratings

Bless This Mess
Tuesdays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC

SpotVault - The Conners (ABC) - Fall 2019 Ratings

The Conners
Tuesdays, 8/7c, ABC

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/23/19

FINALS UPDATE: Bob Hearts Abishola (0.9) and 9-1-1 (1.6) adjusted up.

  • A year after the Manifest breakout on Premiere Monday, NBC had an epic fall from those heights in the 10/9c hour. While The Voice (1.7) was probably close to even in Plus with last fall's 2.0 premiere, they were down well over 50% with newbie Bluff City Law (0.8). This is pretty clearly an even worse start than failed The Brave had in the hour two years ago.
  • Fox had a very healthy return for season three of 9-1-1 (1.5) at 8/7c and a middling hold by 9/8c newbie Prodigal Son (1.0). Prodigal was not terrible, but not as impressive as recent launches in this hour like The Gifted and The Passage.
  • CBS had a particularly quiet start to the new season with The Neighborhood (0.9) opening on a new series low. It was downhill from there with 8:30 comedy newbie Bob Hearts Abishola (0.8) and 9/8c drama newbie All Rise (0.7), with the latter tying last year's lowest Magnum P.I. rating. At 10/9c, Bull (0.7) did OK to drop just two tenths from last year's premiere.
  • ABC's Dancing with the Stars (0.9/0.8) and The Good Doctor (1.0) are pending NFL preemptions but aren't looking great even in the prelims.

SpotVault - Prodigal Son (Fox) - 2019-20 Ratings

Prodigal Son
Mondays, 9/8c, Fox

SpotVault - 911 (Fox) - Fall 2019 Ratings

Mondays, 8/7c, Fox

SpotVault - Bluff City Law (NBC) - 2019-20 Ratings

Bluff City Law
Mondays, 10/9c, NBC

SpotVault - The Voice (NBC) - Fall 2019 Ratings

The Voice
Mondays, 8/7c, NBC

SpotVault - Bull (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Mondays, 10/9c, CBS

SpotVault - All Rise (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

All Rise
Mondays, 9/8c, CBS

SpotVault - Bob Hearts Abishola (CBS) - 2019-20 Ratings

Bob Hearts Abishola
Mondays, 8:30/7:30c, CBS

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