Wednesday, September 18, 2019

A18-49+ Update: The New Shows in 2018-19


Here's a look at the new scripted series on the big four in 2018-19:

YearTotFlopRenewSolidHitBig Hit
2018-1927812621

YearFlopRenewSolidHitBig Hit
2018-1930%44%22%7%4%
AVERAGES:47%37%19%8%3%

Big Hits: The Conners (164)
Hits: Manifest (132)
Solids: The Neighborhood (118), New Amsterdam (112), FBI (102), Schooled (102)
Sub-solid renewals: A Million Little Things (97), God Friended Me (95), Magnum P.I. (90), Single Parents (89), The Rookie (76), Bless This Mess (70)

The class of 2018-19 did not find the heights of some other recent classes. The only show to cross the big hit threshold was The Conners, and even calling it a "new show" is murky. The only other show to cross the hit label was Manifest, an early breakout that was pretty front-loaded.

But while there was not much huge success, there were several nice stories in the solid tier, and it's also worth noting there was not a high volume... period. There were just 27 scripted newbies, down four from last year and a whooping 10 from two years ago. It's not quite a record low, but it's a huge change from the high-30's we saw consistently in the middle of this decade. So even without great raw numbers, the percentages of solids, hits and big hits were about in line with the historical averages. And there were a new record low shows (8) in flop territory.



Career A18-49+ Update:

Another way of assessing new show classes is to grade them based on how they pan out in Career A18-49+. Here's the update to that pursuit with 2018-19 numbers. The changes based on 2018-19 numbers are included in parentheses.

YearTotUtilityStapleTentpoleStarIcon
2001-023685310
2002-033632210
2003-043343222
2004-0534108751
2005-064083331
2006-073454100
2007-082932111
2008-092543200
2009-102695331
2010-1134444 (+2)00
2011-124086 (+1)300
2012-1328311 (+1)00
2013-1439742 (+2)00
2014-153810 (+1)4 (+3)11 (+1)0
2015-16374 (+2)0000
2016-17375 (+4)1 (+1)000
2017-18311 (+1)0000
2018-192700000

2001-02: Still extinct.

2002-03: Still extinct.

2003-04: NCIS keeps rolling well past the icon threshold, but the career labeling is resolved now for this class.

2004-05: American Dad! continues its very slow trek toward icon on cable...

2005-06: Labeling is resolved, and the class will become extinct with the end of Criminal Minds next season (barring another Prison Break revival).

2006-07: Still extinct.

2007-08: With The Big Bang Theory over, it is extinct.

2008-09: Still extinct.

2009-10: NCIS: Los Angeles continues a very long journey to icon (386 points away). If it lasts past 2019-20, it will beat out Modern Family as the longest-running member of the class.

2010-11: Bob's Burgers and Blue Bloods made this a rare four-tentpole class, but we're still two or three years away from any of the three active shows (also including Hawaii Five-0) making it to star.

2011-12: A breakout return for Last Man Standing (114) put it well past the staple threshold and makes it possible that the class of 2011-12 could have four tentpoles as well; LMS needs 91 points next season.

2012-13: It took seven years, but the weak class of 2012-13 finally produced a tentpole in Chicago Fire, and it may be able to get to star in two years. Elementary ended, unable to get to the staple mark in seven seasons.

2013-14: Mom and The Goldbergs became the first two tentpoles of this class, and Chicago PD will join them next season. Brooklyn Nine-Nine will become staple #5 next year, and the class could narrowly eke out a sixth staple if Agents of SHIELD is even in Plus next summer. (It had a 44 this summer and needs 44 more.)

2014-15: Empire became a star, but has just one season left and will not get the 361 points needed for icon. Black-ish, How to Get Away with Murder and NCIS: New Orleans joined the staple club, but none will be a threat to hit tentpole next year. Fresh Off the Boat could be a close call to eke out staple next season. (It needs 55 at 8:30, and had 64 at 8:00 last year.) Madam Secretary gave this class a record-tying ten utility players but will not make it to staple in its final season.

2015-16: Superstore and Blindspot got to the utility mark. Chicago Med will become the first staple of the class next year, while Superstore needs two years.

2016-17: This Is Us cruised past the staple threshold but came up 23 points shy of tentpole, so it will get there next year. Star, American Housewife, Bull and The Good Place all hit utility, with Man with a Plan and likely MacGyver rounding out the class at seven utilities next year. But to reiterate what I said in this post last year, a devastating slew of disappointments/cancellations mean this class is going to end up looking a lot worse than appeared likely during its first season. The once-promising Star, Lethal Weapon and Speechless all ended this season, the last two not even getting to utility in their three-season runs.

2017-18: Young Sheldon became a utility and is 118 points from staple next season. 9-1-1 and The Good Doctor both came up just shy of utility and will get there next year. The Resident (needs 107) and Station 19 (needs 103) would have to uptick in Plus to get there next year.

2018-19: After a 164 last year, The Connors needs 136 points in season two to make it to utility.

Here's the now updated A18-49+ New Shows post.

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