Friday, September 30, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/29/16


FINALS UPDATE: Superstore (1.3) and The Good Place (1.3) adjusted up while The Big Bang Theory (R) (1.3/1.3) and Kevin Can Wait (R) (1.1/1.1) and Bull (R) (0.8) and The Flash (R) (0.3) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • Week two was more hopeful for Pitch (up to 58%) and Notorious (still a long shot but up to 32%) after small/no drops.
  • The biggest week-to-week swing in R% to date was Rosewood, shooting all the way up to 66% in week two. It rose when the model expected a drop and had the Fox target come down a lot in the same week, hence an enormous move. Way too much of a swing in my opinion, but if it actually sustains a 0.8, it would admittedly not be that far from the rest of the Fox pack...
  • In the prelims, we're taking a likely optimistic guess at what the NFL Network football rating will be (about 10% below the NFLN-only opener last year). If it comes in below that, and/or if the CBS repeats adjust down to reduce competition, these percentages could come down some in finals.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • ABC's Notorious (1.1) tried to hang on in week two, preliminarily matching its premiere rating as surrounding programs Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and How to Get Away with Murder (1.3) were both down a touch.
  • The Thursday sledding got even tougher on NBC, as Superstore (1.2) took a big hit 8/7c and (at least in the prelims) lost out to even a repeat of The Big Bang Theory (1.4) in their first head-to-head duel. The Good Place (1.2) remained a solid match at 8:30, but the dramas Chicago Med (1.3) and The Blacklist (1.1) dipped further in week two as well.
  • On Fox, Rosewood (0.8) woke up a bit from last week's nightmare opening, while Pitch (1.0) held off the fractionals in week two.
  • CBS had a one-week break from Thursday Night Football, using it to repeat its Monday comedies (1.4/1.3/1.4/1.2) and Bull (0.9). These numbers will probably come down in finals since the network still had some local preemptions for TNF (which was carried nationally on NFL Network only).

First Two Weeks, Designated Survivor


Games still open: Kevin Can Wait | Bull | This Is Us | Speechless

WEEK ONE
Rating: 2.2
Lead-in: Black-ish (2.0)
Competition: Big Brother (2.0), Chicago PD (1.6)

First Two Weeks, Speechless


Games still open: Kevin Can Wait | Bull | This Is Us

WEEK ONE
Rating: 2.0
Lead-in: The Goldbergs (2.0)
Competition: Survivor Fall (2.3), Blindspot (1.3), Lethal Weapon (2.2), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R) (0.3)

What's Changed in the True Formula for 2016-17


This took longer than hoped, but here are some details on what's changed in the True formula from the 2015-16 version to the 2016-17. It is the fourth and final piece of the large Renewology intro, following the general intro, tables and charts details, and summary of the Renewology model. If you want more details on the formation of the True formula, you can go back and piece together all my old posts. Perhaps some day I will do a better documentation, but this post is just about the changes from the 2015-16 version to the 2016-17 one.

SpotVault - Code Black (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings





Code Black
Wednesdays, 10/9c, CBS







SpotVault - Criminal Minds (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



Thursday, September 29, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/28/16


FINALS UPDATE: Criminal Minds (1.9) and Blindspot (1.3) and Law and Order: SVU (1.6) and Lethal Weapon (2.0) and Empire (3.7) adjusted up while Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R) (0.3) and Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) (0.3) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • Not a great start for Code Black (37%), which is immediately at the bottom of the CBS totem pole.
  • Not a ton of movement elsewhere. The solid holds were good news for Speechless and Lethal Weapon. The model cooled a bit on Blindspot (81%) in its second regular episode, but it's still a noticeable improvement on previous occupant The Mysteries of Laura.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • The promising premieres of week one continued to hold up decently in week two. In the 8:00 hour, Speechless (1.8) was down two tenths from last week's premiere, dipping slightly behind its The Goldbergs (1.9) lead-in which shed a tenth. And Lethal Weapon (1.9) took its own low-teens drop, remaining a significantly improved option on Rosewood; a year ago, Rosewood was just a tenth higher with nearly two more points of Empire lead-out juice (5.5 last year; 3.6 this year).
  • The only newbie that took even a slightly above average drop was the ABC drama Designated Survivor (1.8), down by four tenths (or 18%) in its second week. But with this kind of show, ABC will still take that, especially since the network's most alarming week two drop came from DS' lead-in Black-ish (1.6). Modern Family (2.3) had a low-teens drop at 9/8c.
  • On CBS, dramas Criminal Minds (1.8) and Code Black (1.2) were back and matched their 2015-16 season finales. In another year of turmoil in the main cast, Minds was only 10% behind last year's opener, and looked a bit more like the stronger Minds that showed up in the second half of last season. Code Black was 20% behind the year-ago series premiere, but never faced this level of drama competition from ABC.
    • Survivor (2.1) was down two tenths at 8/7c.
  • NBC's Law and Order: SVU (1.5) was the peacock's only steep dropper in week two, probably thanks to the arrival of Minds as competition. Sandwiching it were Blindspot (1.2) and Chicago PD (1.5), each down just a tenth.

First Two Weeks, This Is Us


Games still open: Kevin Can Wait | Bull

WEEK ONE
Rating: 2.8
Lead-in: The Voice Tue Fall (3.4)
Competition: Agents of SHIELD (1.1), NCIS: New Orleans (1.4)

First Two Weeks, Bull


Games still open: Kevin Can Wait

WEEK ONE
Rating: 2.2
Lead-in: NCIS (2.2)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars Special (1.5), The Voice Tue Fall (3.4), Scream Queens (1.0), MADtv (0.2)

The 2016-17 Daily Year-to-Date Rankings



The 2016-17 Climate Center: Networks



The 2016-17 Climate Center: League Averages



Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/27/16


FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (3.3) adjusted up while Scream Queens (0.7) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • Despite week two drops, the ABC and Fox shows all came close to last week's R% numbers (which still mostly feel too high to me). Other than Nine-Nine, these shows dropped more in True than the projections guessed, but those were offset by the decreases in where we project the network averages to end up. The True formula is still very kind to Agents of SHIELD due to its incompatibility with DWTS, and it'll be interesting to see if it turns out to have been overrating it when it gets a younger-skewing lead-in in two weeks.
  • The worst night according to the formula was actually had by Bull, which fell to 70% in week two. Again, a lot of this is about the network targets rather than the show itself, as CBS seems to be overachieving in general. But it was still only an OK week for Bull itself, and its projected late-season True dropped a bit.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • In the first full-fledged night of week two for primetime entertainment series, This Is Us (2.6) remained a huge winner. It was down just two tenths from its already stellar premiere, and still retained most of its The Voice (3.2) lead-in. This was actually tied with the second week of Blindspot (2.6) from a year ago, which is a huge compliment.
  • On CBS, Bull (1.9) also held up fairly well in week two, shedding three tenths week-to-week and dropping behind its NCIS (2.1) lead-in. The network also had a reasonable positive at 10/9c as premiere week underachiever NCIS: New Orleans (1.5) ticked up.
  • Elsewhere, though, the struggles got more real. ABC's Agents of SHIELD (0.9) shed two tenths from its decent premiere a week ago, leading out of two more hours of Dancing with the Stars (1.4/1.3).
  • Fox also had a rough second Tuesday, with a downtick from Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.0) and two-tenth declines from New Girl (1.0) and Scream Queens (0.8).

First Two Weeks, Kevin Can Wait


WEEK ONE
Rating: 2.6
Lead-in: The Big Bang Theory (3.8)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars Fall (1.7), The Voice Fall (3.3), Gotham (1.3), Supergirl (SR) (0.2)

Renewology Roundup: What to Expect in Week 2


Hope you have enjoyed the first week of Renewology. The projection-of-future-declines component means that it is most interesting in the very earliest weeks. But these are also the times when we have very, very little to go on in terms of where the network averages will end up. So for this first Renewology Roundup, here are a few thoughts on things to look out for in week two of the numbers. I promise that these columns will be a lot less wonky, and more about the shows themselves, going forward!

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/26/16


FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.6) adjusted up while The Voice (3.2) adjusted down.
  • On a sky-high night for overall viewing, I added the full 8:00 ratings on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, plus Monday Night Football, as cable competition. It still graded out as an easier hour than last week, especially with the debate lead-out factor in the mix. I'm not sure if the formula is still being too harsh or not, but I'm not sure what else I could've reasonably done. Even if the slot was a lot easier, Kevin Can Wait's uptick is impressive, but it still dropped a touch in R% due to the CBS target rising by about a tenth in week two. (More on this tomorrow.)
WHAT MATTERS:
  • On the second Monday of the season, the big four broadcasters set their primetime lineups aside from 9:00-11:00 to air the first presidential debate. Early numbers suggest it went considerably higher than the comparable debate in 2012.
    • Preliminary debate numbers:
      • NBC (5.4), ABC (3.1), CBS (2.8), Fox (1.8) 
  • That meant only a miniature version of the week two primetime clash, in the 8:00 hour. CBS had a key week two for Kevin Can Wait (2.7), leading out of The Big Bang Theory (3.5). NBC's The Voice (3.3) and ABC's Dancing with the Stars (1.8) aired condensed versions, while Fox went with just Gotham (1.2). We will hold off till finals on analysis.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 9/25/16


FINALS UPDATE: Once Upon a Time (1.3) and Sunday Night Football (7.6) adjusted up while everything on Fox adjusted down: Family Guy (R) (0.8), Bob's Burgers (1.1), The Simpsons (1.4), Son of Zorn (1.1), Family Guy (1.3) adjusted down.

After these adjustments, it seems even clearer that there is an issue with how a new component in the True formula is counting the sports competition for the Fox shows. In particular, Bob's and Simpsons should clearly be higher, even if Bob's wasn't renewed already. I went ahead and posted this table but I may be doing some kind of emergency fix for this situation. I'll work on this and get into it a bit more in the True formula update article later this week.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • It looks like a rough season is ahead for ABC's Sunday drama approach, and it started with Once Upon a Time (1.2) and Quantico (1.0) each returning to tie their spring finales. However, these were predictably hefty declines from their 1.8/1.9 openers a year ago. In the middle was the return of Secrets and Lies (1.0) after a 16 month hiatus. On a historical-adjusted basis, this was a little worse than its 1.5 premiere from that season, and about on par with the show's 1.3 low point. But it's clear that S&L's late-season heat from spring 2015 is long gone.
  • In the prelims, Fox's animated staples got off to a solid start, with Bob's Burgers (1.3) and The Simpsons (1.6) each preliminarily up a tenth from last year's openers, while Family Guy (1.4) was down just a tenth. But the live action offerings at the bottoms of the hours were less impressive; Son of Zorn (1.2) was 20% below the year-ago Brooklyn Nine-Nine (which had full retention on premiere Sunday a year ago), while The Last Man on Earth (0.9) took a disturbing dip from its year-ago 1.4 opener. These shows could get a bit adjusted due to local NFL overruns (which are probably included in the 1.1 Family Guy (R) at 7:00).
  • On CBS, the national NFL overrun led into 60 Minutes (2.3 from 8:00 to 9:00) and the two-hour premiere of NCIS: Los Angeles on a new night (1.4 from 9:00 to 11:00). These shows actually started at 7:51 and 8:51 on the East Coast, so expect adjustments.
  • NBC had a dominant Sunday Night Football; more after finals.

SpotVault - Quantico (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Secrets and Lies (ABC) - Fall 2016 Ratings





Secrets and Lies
Sundays, 9/8c, ABC







SpotVault - Once Upon a Time (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - The Last Man on Earth (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Family Guy (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - The Simpsons (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Bob's Burgers (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - NCIS: Los Angeles (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - 60 Minutes (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



Monday, September 26, 2016

SpotVault - MacGyver (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Hawaii Five-0 (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Blue Bloods (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Dr. Ken (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings





Dr. Ken
Fridays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC







SpotVault - Last Man Standing (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings





Last Man Standing
Fridays, 8/7c, ABC







SpotVault - Shark Tank (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - 20/20 (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - The Exorcist (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings





The Exorcist
Fridays, 9/8c, Fox







SpotVault - Dateline Fri (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Hell's Kitchen (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings





Hell's Kitchen
Fridays, 8/7c, Fox







SpotVault - Superstore (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Chicago Med (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - The Blacklist (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - How to Get Away with Murder (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings





How to Get Away with Murder
Thursdays, 10/9c, ABC







SpotVault - Notorious (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings





Notorious
Thursdays, 9/8c, ABC







SpotVault - Grey's Anatomy (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Pitch (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings





Pitch
Thursdays, 9/8c, Fox







SpotVault - Rosewood (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



Sunday, September 25, 2016

Premiere Sunday Best Case/Worst Case: Son of Zorn and Week 2 premieres!


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight. I'm also throwing the week two premieres into this post, since there are surprisingly few week two premieres and even fewer actual interesting ones.


Saturday, September 24, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Friday 9/23/16


FINALS UPDATE: Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) adjusted up while Masters of Illusion (0.2) and Masters of Illusion (R) (0.2) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • CBS made a huge Premiere Friday splash with a truly explosive premiere from MacGyver (1.7) at 8/7c. It's been almost three years since a Friday night drama hit even a raw number this high (Bones and Hawaii Five-0 each hit 1.8's in 2014). On a historical adjusted basis, you'd definitely have to go at least back to the Numb3rs premiere (a 5.0/123 Plus in January 2005) and probably back to Law and Order: SVU's run on the night in the early 2000s. The show skewed much younger than the other CBS crime dramas, with less than a million more total viewers but a 0.4 advantage in the demo.
    • MacGyver also helped its compatible lead-out Hawaii Five-0 (1.3), which easily trounced its 1.0 year-ago premiere and was near its highest raw number of last season. And Blue Bloods (1.3) matched last year's opener.
  • Though overshadowed by CBS, Fox also had a nice opening Friday with the return of Hell's Kitchen (1.1) and premiere of drama The Exorcist (1.0). Hell's tied its last Friday premiere in January, while Exorcist has given itself a chance to be much stronger than Fox's recent scripted efforts on the night.
  • ABC may be seeing its run of Friday dominance slipping away; Last Man Standing (1.1) returned well in the lead-off spot, but Dr. Ken (0.9) tied its season one low point, and Shark Tank (1.1) had a particular stinker at 9/8c. (It never got as low as 1.1 on Friday all of last season.) 20/20 (0.7) was also soft.
  • NBC had Superstore (0.6) and The Good Place (0.6) encores, plus Dateline (0.8/1.1).

Friday, September 23, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/22/16


FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.5) and Thursday Night Football (6.1) and Superstore (1.5) and The Good Place (1.4) adjusted up while Notorious (1.1) and The Flash (R) (0.2) and Supernatural (R) (0.2) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • The model became more pessimistic along with the ratings on night four of the season, opening Rosewood (28%) and Notorious (25%) as big long-shots to be renewed. (These numbers may still be too high, though.) Subjectively, Pitch actually could be a bit low at 41%, but this formula doesn't weigh lead-ins as heavily as our eyes do sometimes.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • After three solid days to open the new season, Premiere Thursday brought plenty of red meat for the broadcast TV schadenfreude crowd. For ABC Thursday, usually the night's defining scripted lineup, it was immediately clear that Scandal is missed. Grey's Anatomy (2.4) was still pretty close to its usual self, down just four tenths from last year's premiere. But its lead-out Notorious (1.2) was a very, very pale imitation of Scandal even on premiere night with measly 50% retention. How to Get Away with Murder (1.4) managed to perk up at 10/9c, but was still at barely half of last year's 2.6 premiere!
  • NBC's Thursday revamp may have some potential for long-term improvement, but it was far from a breakout and demonstrated the difficulty of starting over on the night. Sophomores Superstore (1.4) and Chicago Med (1.4) both returned toward the low the end of their season one raw numbers. Superstore's lead-out The Good Place (1.3) had good retention, while The Blacklist (1.3) made a fair transition to the 10/9c hour.
  • And Fox had a rough start to its latest remake of Thursday night, as sophomore Rosewood (0.7) opened even lower than all of its without-Empire episodes from last season, and provided the year's first fractional scripted result by a wide margin. New drama Pitch (1.1) built by a lot on its lead-in, and can safely be called a better start than Notorious in context, but the concept clearly didn't bring in interest on a wide scale.
  • CBS had its second week of Thursday Night Football; more after finals.

Premiere Friday Best Case/Worst Case: MacGyver, The Exorcist and more!


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight!


Cablemetrics: American Horror Story, Mr. Robot, Fear the Walking Dead, Z Nation


These numbers are current through Wednesday, September 21.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Maybe it is possible for American Horror Story to have a bigger collapse than last year?! It was down almost a full point in week two to 1.79, and -17% compared to week two of last year (after a -7% on premiere night). However, this is an irregular time of year for it to premiere, and it's never gone head-to-head with the return of broadcast competition for week two. So we'll see. Fellow Wednesday breakthrough South Park (0.97) also had a sharp week two decline, but still had better raw numbers than the year-ago week two.

SpotVault - Designated Survivor (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Black-ish (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Modern Family (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Speechless (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - The Goldbergs (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Empire (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Lethal Weapon (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings





Lethal Weapon
Wednesdays, 8/7c, Fox







SpotVault - Chicago PD (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Law and Order: SVU (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Survivor (CBS) - Fall 2016 Ratings





Survivor
Wednesdays, 8/7c, CBS







Thursday, September 22, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/21/16


FINALS UPDATE: Empire (4.2) adjusted up while Designated Survivor (2.2) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • Very promising starts for Designated Survivor (96%), which will apparently need a The Muppets-esque collapse not to survive at this point, and Lethal Weapon (91%). The least promising of the three was Speechless at 80%, since it gets compared against the strong ABC comedy department.
  • The True formula liked Blindspot's week two a lot better than the post-Talent preview. I think 84% is too high but I don't think it's that far off... it was definitely a better showing than The Mysteries of Laura, which was perennially in the 50s last year.
  • Seems kinda clear at this point that the preseason "target" guesses were too low. Will be interesting to see if they adjust a lot next week when they account for all the stuff that has overachieved this week. I may come up with a way to have the R% week-to-week changes be based on applying the most recent "target" to both weeks, but we'll see what they look like.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • The hits kept coming on day three of the new season. Wednesday's star of the show was Kiefer Sutherland's ABC drama Designated Survivor (2.3), which built on its lead-in from Black-ish (2.0). It nearly doubled the year-ago Nashville premiere rating. The premiere is only the first step for this kind of show, but it's got a lot of cushion to remain a major improvement in the hour.
    • Earlier in the ABC evening, new comedy Speechless (2.0) opened with the same rating as its The Goldbergs (2.0) lead-in.
    • The returning ABC comedies, The Goldbergs (2.0 in a move to 8/7c), Modern Family (2.6) and Black-ish (2.0), were all down a little less than 20% from last year's premieres (2.4/3.2/2.4 respectively).
  • On Fox, Lethal Weapon (2.2) started promisingly as a lead-in to Empire (4.1). It was helped by its mega-hit lead-out, to be sure (growing from 1.9 to 2.4 at the half), but this was just two tenths behind last year's Rosewood (2.4) launch (while Empire was down a whooping 2.6 points from the same night). Empire opened at about the same rating as its season finale (4.1), but the trend remains downward for premieres from last year's fall (6.7) and spring (4.8).
  • NBC premiered its crime drama lineup to strong results. It started with a solid transition to the 8/7c hour for Blindspot (1.3), followed by Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.6). The procedurals may look a little better than will be the norm going forward, since there was no CBS drama competition. But Blindspot beat the year-ago The Mysteries of Laura (1.2), SVU matched its 1.8 premiere a year ago, and PD was down just a tenth despite the significantly added competition from ABC.
  • And CBS had a healthy opening to the latest Survivor season (2.3), and a healthy close to its summer season with the season finale of Big Brother (2.0). Both were down two tenths year-to-year.

Premiere Thursday Best Case/Worst Case: Notorious, Pitch and more!


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight!


SpotVault - This Is Us (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings





This Is Us
Tuesdays, 9/8c, NBC







SpotVault - Agents of SHIELD (ABC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Scream Queens (Fox) - Fall 2016 Ratings





Scream Queens
Tuesdays, 9/8c, Fox







SpotVault - New Girl (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings





New Girl
Tuesdays, 8/7c, Fox







SpotVault - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Bull (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - NCIS: New Orleans (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - NCIS (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/20/16


FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.2) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.1) adjusted up.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • The formula agrees that it was a very promising night for both newbies, with This Is Us at 94% and Bull at 84%.
  • At least with these early PUT estimates, it puts all the returnees on strong footing as well. It seems too kind to SHIELD and the Fox veterans, but SHIELD gets a lot of credit for its very incompatible lead-in... and these may be shows that are prone to larger post-premiere declines than the formula expects out of a generic returnee.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • A promising premiere week for new shows continued into night two as the dramedy This Is Us had a very strong 2.8 start, leading out of two more hours of The Voice (3.1/3.6) which actually upticked slightly from premiere Monday. If it holds in finals, this will probably be an even bigger Plus than last year's Monday Blindspot premiere.
  • CBS' Michael Weatherly drama Bull (2.2) was also a big premiere night positive, actually building on its lead-in on premiere night. It was surrounded by the NCIS franchise, with the 8/7c mothership (2.1) down four tenths year-to-year and NCIS: New Orleans (1.4) barely hitting a new low in its move to 10/9c.
  • Fox opened its Tuesday season with comedies Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.0) and New Girl (1.2) leading into the season two premiere of Scream Queens (1.0). Nothing broke out, but all these shows were up from their late-season results in 2015-16.
  • ABC continued its pre-debates holding pattern into Tuesday, with a special edition of Dancing with the Stars (1.5) leading into incompatible Marvel's Agents of SHIELD (1.1) at 10/9c. It'd be a fine start to SHIELD's 10/9c life, though, as this would beat every episode since the spring premiere. 
FULL TABLE (FINALS):
ShowTimeslotRenewology
Name
A18-49
Last
y2y
TLa
Ty2y
R%
Last
True
Last
Dancing with the Stars Special1.5
0%
+94%
-23%
1.56
Agents of SHIELD1.1
-35%
+175%
-27%
85%1.34
ABC:
+110%
-24%
NCIS2.2
-12%
+22%
-12%
98%2.00
Bull2.2
+175%
+29%
82%1.88
NCIS: New Orleans1.4
-18%
+75%
-26%
76%1.37
CBS:
+71%
-5%
The Voice Tue Fall3.4
-3%
+21%
-3%
2.82
This Is Us2.8
+75%
+33%
94%2.30
NBC:
+33%
+5%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine1.1
-27%
+120%
-35%
87%1.23
New Girl1.2
-14%
+200%
-29%
92%1.35
Scream Queens1.0
-41%
+150%
-41%
58%1.08
Fox:
+153%
-37%
The Flash (R)0.3
0%
-25%
0.39
MADtv0.2
0
0%
-50%
0.27-0.10
CW:
0%
-38%
All:
+61%
-13%
Atlanta0.48
-0.08
Halt and Catch Fire0.10
-0.03
-41%

Premiere Wednesday Best Case/Worst Case: Speechless, Designated Survivor, Lethal Weapon and more!


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight!


SpotVault - The Good Place (NBC) - Fall 2016 Ratings





The Good Place
Thursdays, 8:30/7:30c, NBC







SpotVault - Lucifer (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Gotham (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Kevin Can Wait (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - The Big Bang Theory (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - Son of Zorn (Fox) - Fall 2016 Ratings





Son of Zorn
Sundays, 8:30/7:30c, Fox







SpotVault - Blindspot (NBC) - 2016-17 Ratings



SpotVault - The Voice (NBC) - Fall 2016 Ratings





The Voice
Mondays, 8/7c, NBC







SpotVault - Dancing with the Stars (ABC) - Fall 2016 Ratings





Dancing with the Stars
Mondays, 8/7c, ABC







Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/19/16


FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.8) and Gotham (1.3) adjusted up while the Supergirl repeats (0.2/0.2) adjusted down.
  • Despite holding its 2.6 in finals, Kevin Can Wait went down to 70% in Renewology, as its lead-in got bigger, and the updated PUT at 8:30 was a bit higher than the initial estimate (reducing its True score). The Good Place also held in finals at 2.3 and inched up to a 90% Renewology.

RENEWOLOGY:  
  • Kevin Can Wait (2.6) preliminarily matched last year's Life in Pieces raw number with a signficantly diminished The Big Bang Theory (3.6) lead-in. We open it at a 75% renewal.
  • The Good Place (2.3) opens at a very high 87%. It gets a lot of help in this formula from the perceived weakness of the NBC comedy department, but it may not be as weak as we're expecting...
  • And Gotham (1.2) and Lucifer (1.3), despite getting rather lost in the shuffle, open in the 80s from Renewology (83% and 87% respectively).
WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC dominated Premiere Monday with the return of The Voice (3.0/3.5), leading into a two-episode preview of Thursday-bound comedy The Good Place (2.6/2.0).
  • On CBS, the return of The Big Bang Theory (3.6) led into new comedy Kevin Can Wait (2.6) at 8:30. CBS rounded out the night with two more hours of the miniseries The Case Of (1.8).
  • Fox was back into the drama game with the returns of Monday incumbents Gotham (1.2) and Lucifer (1.3).
  • And ABC's Dancing with the Stars (1.7) was back for week two after premiering last Monday, leading into a special finale of Match Game (0.9) at 10/9c.

Premiere Tuesday Best Case/Worst Case: Bull, This Is Us and more!


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight!


Spotted Ratings, Sunday 9/18/16


FINALS UPDATE: Primetime Emmy Awards (2.8) and NFL Overrun (5.9) and Sunday Night Football (8.2) adjusted up while Emmy Awards Red Carpet (0.9) and 60 Minutes (2.6) and NCIS: Los Angeles (R) (0.7) and Football Night in America (3.2) and Bob's Burgers (R) (0.4) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • On the eve of a new TV season, ABC celebrated the old one with the Primetime Emmy Awards from 8:00-11:00 (2.4/2.6/2.4). This should adjust up a good bit due to live West Coast viewing, probably to somewhere in the high-2's, but it will still significantly trail the year-ago 3.6 on Fox (as well as all previous years).
  • On CBS, numbers are muddled by the national NFL overrun, which went deep into the 7:30 half-hour. But it looks like a very solid start for JonBenet Ramsey miniseries The Case Of, as CBS averaged a 2.1 in the 8:30 to 10:30 prelims. It will continue into Premiere Monday later tonight.
  • NBC's Sunday Night Football continued what seems like a shaky start to the NFL season (at least by its standards), as the 7.8/7.6/6.9 prelims should end up well behind the 9.7 final from the second Sunday last year. And Fox had one last night full of comedy repeats, with some early help from local NFL overruns (1.1/0.7/0.7/0.7/0.8/0.5).

Monday, September 19, 2016

Premiere Monday Best Case/Worst Case: Kevin Can Wait, The Good Place and more!


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight!


Sunday, September 18, 2016

SpotVault - Primetime Emmy Awards Ratings, 2001-Present





Primetime Emmy Awards







SpotVault - American Horror Story (FX) - Fall 2016 Ratings



SpotVault - South Park (Comedy Central) - Fall 2016 Ratings



SpotVault - Masters of Sex (Showtime) - Fall 2016 Ratings



SpotVault - Better Things (FX) - Fall 2016 Ratings



SpotVault - Sunday Night Football (NBC) - Fall 2016 Ratings





Sunday Night Football on NBC







SpotVault - Thursday Night Football (CBS) - Fall 2016 Ratings





Thursday Night Football on CBS







SpotVault - Saturday Night Football (ABC) - Fall 2016 Ratings





Saturday Night Football on ABC







SpotVault - CFB on Fox (Fox) - Fall 2016 Ratings



Friday, September 16, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/15/16


FINALS UPDATE: Thursday Night Football (5.4) adjusted up while Thursday Night Football Pregame (2.2) adjusted down. Please remember that TNF finals are the combined rating from CBS and NFL Network.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • CBS dominated with the return of Thursday Night Football, while the only original competition on broadcast was the CW's Beauty and the Beast series finale (0.2). 
  • The other networks repeated a bunch of shows that will return to originals next Thursday:
    • ABC: 2x Grey's Anatomy (0.6/0.7) and How to Get Away with Murder (0.5)
    • NBC: 4x Superstore (0.8/0.8/0.8/0.8) and Chicago Med (0.7)
    • And Fox had its last repeat of Rosewood (0.6) at 8/7c.

Cablemetrics: American Horror Story, South Park, Atlanta, Better Things


These numbers are current through Wednesday, September 14.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • FX had the headline of the cable ratings week with an incredibly strong return from American Horror Story (2.78) at 10/9c. Despite the show's massive collapse last season (as low as a 0.85, and frequently in the vicinity of -30% year-to-year), the franchise somehow pulled itself all the way back to within 7% of last year's inflated premiere. This is AHS, so another collapse is probably coming, but it's kinda hard to imagine it being worse than last year. Even if it's exactly as bad as last year, that means -7% for the season, which would be extremely healthy!

Renewology: The Four Big Steps


As promised in the basic intro, this is a more detailed look at the process of Renewology: converting adults 18-49 ratings into renewal percentages. I'm not putting out many of the specific numbers that go into the model, but I hope this is a pretty comprehensive and honest look about how the process works, including the things that worry me.

This will probably be too long and dry for most, but I think it's important to have it out there as a reference while it's in action. I welcome your feedback, if you can manage to get through all of this. While I like to think I have developed some expertise on the TV ratings world, I'm much less of an expert on predictive modeling. I've tried to keep the portions that involve that pretty simple, but I'd love to hear if something seems particularly unsound mathematically. I can't promise to get a whole lot more specific than what is included here, but I'll do my best.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/14/16


FINALS UPDATE: Fresh Off the Boat (R) (0.7) and Big Brother (1.8) adjusted up while Blindspot (1.5) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC opened the 2016-17 season for broadcast drama with the season two premiere of Blindspot (1.6) at 10/9c. It beat the show's last eight post-Voice results, though those episodes generally had much smaller lead-ins than this one, and Blindspot took a fairly sizable drop from 1.8 to 1.4 at the half. It won't get any easier for Blindspot as it heads for 8/7c starting next week.
    • As for that lead-in, it was the two-hour finale of America's Got Talent (2.4/3.1), which will probably about tie its performance finale from Tuesday, and absolutely demolish the 2.1 season finale from a year ago.
  • Fox had its last highlight of the summer with the season finale of MasterChef (1.3/1.5), which eked out a new season high in the 9/8c hour against the big competition.
  • CBS' Big Brother (1.7) edged down a bit at 8/7c, leading into repeats of Criminal Minds (0.7) and (finally in its actual fall timeslot) Code Black (0.6).
  • ABC had one last sextet of comedy repeats (0.7/0.8/0.9/0.8/0.8/0.6). Penn and Teller: Fool Us stayed at 0.4 but the original (0.3) and repeat (0.3) of Whose Line Is It Anyway? had a soft night.

What Renewology Will Look Like This Fall


Check out yesterday's introduction to Renewology, this site's new attempt to predict renewal and cancellation outcomes. This post will continue the explanation with a look at how you can expect to see these numbers shared and used on a daily and weekly basis.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/13/16


FINALS UPDATE: America's Got Talent (2.8) adjusted up while Fresh Off the Boat (R) (0.7) and The Real O'Neals (R) (0.6) and Agents of SHIELD (R) (0.4) and NCIS (R) (0.8) and Better Late Than Never (1.6) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • An incredible season for America's Got Talent neared the finish line with a season high-tying 2.7 for the Tuesday finale, yet another night that went well above last year even in raw numbers. It led into the finale of 10/9c success Better Late Than Never (1.7), eyeing a new series high in the prelims but perhaps merely tying its high after finals (with a 1.8/1.5 breakdown).
  • On CBS, Big Brother (1.8) opened its last full week, which will have episodes on two irregular nights. It was a hair below last Wednesday and close to the 2.0 on this night a year ago. Repeats of the NCIS franchise (0.9/0.8) followed.
  • ABC had a repeat night with comedies (0.9/0.9/0.8/0.7) and Agents of SHIELD (0.5) that resembled its upcoming Tuesday original lineup (though the premieres are still four weeks away). Fox (0.5/0.4/0.4) and the CW (0.3/0.2) were also in repeat mode.

Renewology: The Study of Another Season


There's one big reason why fans and outsiders should be interested in TV ratings: they are very helpful in predicting whether your show is coming back. We often dwell on bubble shows, but the overall track record shouldn't be taken for granted: when the Nielsen ratings are making a strong case, they're almost always right, even in 2016. Even if all you can really do is separate shows into "safe," "bubble" and "dead," that's still a valuable service.

For many years, Spotted Ratings has been a TV ratings site that doesn't do that in any kind of formulaic way. We've talked about these things a lot, but there's never been a "model" or an "index" or anything like you can find at some of the other guys.

That's about to change. This fall, I hope you will embark with me on Renewology, a fledgling attempt to statistically model and predict renewal and cancellation decisions for broadcast scripted series.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/12/16


FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (R) (1.2) and So You Think You Can Dance (0.7) adjusted up while Dancing with the Stars (2.1) and The $100,000 Pyramid (1.0) and The Big Bang Theory (R) (1.0) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Numbers and analysis coming shortly. ABC opened a new season of Dancing with the Stars on Monday, but be wary of preliminary numbers due to Monday Night Football preemptions. Elsewhere, NBC's American Ninja Warrior and Fox's So You Think You Can Dance wrapped their seasons.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 9/11/16


FINALS UPDATE: America's Funniest Home Videos (R) (0.7) and Sunday Night Football (8.4) adjusted up while 60 Minutes (1.0) and BrainDead (0.4) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Fox opened the fall for new broadcast scripted programming with an 8/7c preview of new comedy Son of Zorn (2.4), leading out of NFL coverage which had a preliminary 7.8 at 7:00 and 5.8 at 8:30. Assuming it holds up in finals, this is not too different from what The Simpsons did with the NFL lead-in last fall (mostly ranging from high-2's in the early fall to low-2's in the late fall). Son of Zorn will be back in its regular 8:30 timeslot in two weeks.
  • On ABC, Celebrity Family Feud (1.3) was back to finish its season alongside the 2016 Miss America Competition (1.3), which was down two tenths from last year's 1.5. It was a decent finish to the season for Feud, beating all three of its August ratings, but it still never got back to its mid-1's level from early in the summer.
  • NBC had its first of many dominant fall Sundays with Sunday Night Football, though its 7.5 prelim was a good bit below the 9.2 prelim/10.1 final for the Sunday opener last season.
  • And CBS' Big Brother (1.8) was back to normal after its Labor Day weekend hiccup last week, leading into the last two hours of BrainDead (0.5/0.3).

Career A18-49+ Sortable Table Thru 2015-16


This is a sortable table with a lot of A18-49+ numbers that can be used to evaluate the full run of a series. This includes Career A18-49+, the sum of each individual season's historical-adjusted A18-49 rating, as well as how many times each show went over some of the A18-49+ label thresholds.

Monday, September 12, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/8/16


FINALS UPDATE: Sunday Night Football (9.4) adjusted up while Football Night in America p3 (4.3) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Opening night of the NFL regular season took center stage on NBC, as the Thursday opener for Sunday Night Football averaged roughly an 8.5 demo in the prelims. This was a point behind last year's prelim and should adjust up into the 9's after finals. (Last year's opener had a preliminary 9.5 and final 10.3.)
  • The only other big four original was CBS' Big Brother (1.7),which upticked slightly from last week's preemption-riddled result. It was surrounded by repeats of comedies (1.2/0.8) and Code Black (0.5). BB will be back on Friday next week due to the arrival of CBS' Thursday Night Football.
  • ABC's game show repeats (0.7/0.6/0.6) edged Fox's drama repeats (0.4/0.5), while the penultimate episode of Beauty and the Beast had its usual 0.2 for the CW.

SpotVault - The Sortable, Filterable 2015-16 Yearly Index


This is a sortable list of series and ratings averages for the 2015-16 season, including every series that has a page in the SpotVault. For the first time, it is also a filterable list, meaning you can boil the table down to just one network, one category of programming or only new shows. (The striped formatting looks kinda ugly when filtered, but hopefully that is worth the added functionality.)

Sunday, September 11, 2016

The Ultimate SpotVault, Pretty Little Liars


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons.

Saturday, September 10, 2016

The Ultimate SpotVault, American Horror Story


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons.

Friday, September 9, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/7/16


FINALS UPDATE: America's Got Talent (2.0) and Big Brother (1.9) adjusted up. Please note that the final for the "Commander-in-Chief Forum" is the combined rating of the NBC/MSNBC simulcast, a trick we'll soon be seeing regularly with Thursday Night Football.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • NBC expanded on its usual Wednesday dominance with a one-hour 'Commander-in-Chief Forum' (1.8) at 8/7c, featuring both major presidential candidates. It led into America's Got Talent (1.9) and a special Running Wild (1.2).
  • CBS' Big Brother (1.8) inched down in the prelims but narrowly boosted the first hour of the double-length American Gothic finale (0.6/0.5).
  • Another two hours of Fox's MasterChef went 1.3/1.4 for the third consecutive Wednesday, while most of ABC's comedy repeats (0.9/0.9/1.0/0.8/0.8/0.7) were up a tenth from last week. 
  • The CW's Penn and Teller: Fool Us was back down to its usual 0.4, while Whose Line Is It Anyway? and the 9:30 repeat had 0.4 yet again.

The War of 18-49, Post-2012 Fox Scripted: Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Gotham, Last Man on Earth and more!


Here are War of 18-49 records for currently airing Fox scripted series that are not yet four years old (and thus don't have stand-alone War pages).

Jump to a show: Brooklyn Nine-Nine | Empire | Gotham | Lucifer | Rosewood | Scream Queens | Sleepy Hollow | The Last Man on Earth


The War of 18-49, News and Sports Series as of 2015-16


Here are War of 18-49 records for currently airing news/sports series.

Jump to a show: 20/20 | 48 Hours | 60 Minutes | America's Funniest Home Videos | CFB on Fox | Dateline Fri | NBA Saturday Primetime | Saturday Night Football | Sunday Night Football | Thursday Night Football


Thursday, September 8, 2016

Cablemetrics: Atlanta, Queen Sugar, You're the Worst, Rizzoli & Isles


These numbers are current through Tuesday, September 6.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Broadcast TV seems to have left the early September premieres behind for the time being, but there are still some on cable. This week, FX gave its Tuesday 10/9c slot to Donald Glover's new comedy Atlanta, which started with a decent 0.53/0.48. It's a good bit behind the 0.83 where The Bastard Executioner started in this slot last fall, but Atlanta may be able to compare favorably going forward because Executioner had a rather epic post-premiere collapse, into 0.3 territory in the second half of the season.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/6/16


FINALS UPDATE: America's Got Talent (2.5) adjusted up while Better Late Than Never (1.5) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • ABC wrapped up a strong Bachelor in Paradise season with a season high-tying 1.6 in the 8:00 hour. Like last year, the finale lifted After Paradise to a new season high 1.1. Even lowly Mistresses (0.6) inched up in a special Tuesday finale at 10/9c.
  • On NBC, Better Late Than Never preliminarily clung to 1.6 for the third straight week, even as its lead-in from America's Got Talent (2.3/2.6) was down a bit.
  • It's a big week for two-hour drama finales on CBS, and it started with Zoo (0.7), the lone renewal of the bunch thus far. The 0.7 was flat week-to-week, but dropped from its NCIS repeat lead-in (0.9) to a 0.8 opening half-hour down to 0.6 in the 10:00 hour.
  • The Fox repeats (0.5/0.4/0.4) and CW's The Flash (0.3) matched last week, but MADtv (0.2) gave back last week's uptick.

SpotVault - Queen Sugar (OWN) - Fall 2016 Ratings



SpotVault - Atlanta (FX) - Fall 2016 Ratings



The War of 18-49, Post-2012 NBC Scripted: The Blacklist, Chicago PD, Blindspot and more!


Here are War of 18-49 records for currently airing NBC scripted series that are not yet four years old (and thus don't have stand-alone War pages).

Jump to a show: Blindspot | Chicago Med | Chicago PD | Shades of Blue | Superstore | The Blacklist | The Carmichael Show


The War of 18-49, Post-2012 CBS Scripted: Mom, Scorpion, NCIS: New Orleans and more!


Here are War of 18-49 records for currently airing CBS scripted series that are not yet four years old (and thus don't have stand-alone War pages).

Jump to a show: Code Black | Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders | Life in Pieces | Madam Secretary | Mom | NCIS: New Orleans | Scorpion | The Odd Couple


Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 9/5/16


FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (R) (1.0) and The Odd Couple (R) (0.8) and American Ninja Warrior (1.6) adjusted up.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was a rather soft end to Labor Day Weekend for the usual Monday suspects. NBC's American Ninja Warrior (1.4/1.7) and Running Wild (1.0) had particular crashes, dropping all the way to low-end levels after two very strong weeks since the Olympics.
  • ABC's Bachelor in Paradise (1.5/1.4) and Mistresses (0.5) each had slight downticks in their final Monday airings of the season. Both shows will conclude their seasons tonight.
  • And it was a bad night for So You Think You Can Dance (0.6/0.5) even by its low standards.
  • CBS' comedy repeats (1.0/0.8/0.9/0.7) improved only slightly with The Big Bang Theory's return to the lineup at 8:00 and 9:00. The CW offered two more doses of Supergirl (0.3/0.3).

The War of 18-49, Post-2012 ABC Scripted: HTGAWM, The Goldbergs, Black-ish, and more!


Here are War of 18-49 records for currently airing ABC scripted series that are not yet four years old (and thus don't have stand-alone War pages).

Jump to a show: Agents of SHIELD | American Crime | Black-ish | Dr. Ken | Fresh Off the Boat | How to Get Away with Murder | Quantico | The Catch | The Goldbergs | The Real O'Neals


The War of 18-49, Post-2012 CW Scripted: The Flash, Supergirl, The Originals and more!


Here are War of 18-49 records for currently airing CW scripted series that are not yet four years old (and thus don't have stand-alone War pages).

Jump to a show: Crazy Ex-Girlfriend | iZombie | Jane the Virgin | Legends of Tomorrow | Reign | Supergirl | The 100 | The Flash | The Originals


Spotted Ratings, Sunday 9/4/16


FINALS UPDATE: Saturday Night Football (3.3) and Big Brother (1.4) and NASCAR (0.9) adjusted up while ABC Fall Preview (0.9) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Low-viewed Labor Day Weekend was not a fun time to be an entertainment program. On Sunday, Big Brother (1.3) tied its season low (from a special Friday airing in August). It still looked great compared with the weekend's other non-sports options on broadcast, including the penultimate weeks of BrainDead (0.3) on Sunday and Aquarius (0.2/0.2) on Saturday.
  • The return of college football was big news for ABC, including a solid return for Saturday Night Football (2.4), which should end up very close to the year-ago 2.7 opener. The network also had huge business from a special Sunday night game, which averaged a 3.0 in the prelims and may get better after finals since it ran way out of primetime. NBC countered on Sunday with primetime NASCAR (0.8).
    • Leading into ABC's Sunday game was its annual fall preview special (1.1) in the 7:00 half-hour. This is probably gonna come down a lot in finals since it includes West Coast football viewing, but maybe the football halo can keep it ahead of last year's 0.6 on a Friday?

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Schedules Plus & The Breakdown Index for Summer 2016


Schedules Plus
Schedules Plus is the ultimate almanac to broadcast network primetime scheduling since 2001. It features lineups for three different parts of the year, as well as A18-49+ ratings that more fairly account for historical decline. For more on the tables and charts in Schedules Plus, see this primer.

Schedules Plus Enhanced: Fox Sunday




Schedules Plus is the ultimate almanac to broadcast network primetime scheduling since 2001. It features lineups for three different parts of the year, as well as A18-49+ ratings that more fairly account for historical decline. For more on the tables and charts in Schedules Plus, see this primer.

This post covers Fox Sunday. After The X-Files ended in 2002, Fox has mostly been committed to airing a full night of comedy on Sunday, led by legendary 8/7c anchor The Simpsons. It didn't get a worthy fellow anchor till 2005, when the resurrection of Family Guy improbably led to a very strong player over the long-term. Many shows have been sprinkled around Simpsons and Family Guy over years, but none have emerged as true heir apparent material. Fortunately, those anchors have (at least until very recent seasons of Family Guy) been very reliable mainstays. See the 2015-16 breakdown.

Sunday, September 4, 2016

The Ultimate SpotVault, Game of Thrones


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons.

Saturday, September 3, 2016

The Ultimate SpotVault, The Walking Dead


The Ultimate SpotVault is a fully sortable record of every single episode in the history of a veteran series. This allows you to compare both raw numbers (total viewership and adults 18-49 rating) as well as the historical-adjusted stat A18-49+ for episodes across different seasons.

Friday, September 2, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/1/16


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Finals are in. Even though these are the 'real' ratings, they are still hurt by significant irregularities in coverage because of all the preemptions. That resulted in a new Thursday season low for both originals, CBS' Big Brother (1.6) and ABC's two-hour BattleBots finale (0.6).
  • CBS' repeats of The Big Bang Theory (1.1), Life in Pieces (0.8) and Code Black (0.5) all tied their summer lows from August 11 against the Olympics. The other repeats fared pretty normally:
    • NBC's Running Wild (0.6) and American Ninja Warrior (0.8);
    • Fox's Rosewood (0.5) and Bones (0.4);
    • And the CW's Legends of Tomorrow (0.2) and Beauty and the Beast (0.2)
  • The last week of the NFL preseason takes place entirely on Thursday night (with the one Wednesday exception this year), making the preliminary ratings completely overrun by local preemptions. The only original programming last night was ABC's two-hour BattleBots finale and Big Brother on CBS. See you after finals!

SpotVault - You're the Worst (FXX) - 2016 Ratings



Schedules Plus Enhanced: NBC Sunday




Schedules Plus is the ultimate almanac to broadcast network primetime scheduling since 2001. It features lineups for three different parts of the year, as well as A18-49+ ratings that more fairly account for historical decline. For more on the tables and charts in Schedules Plus, see this primer.

This post covers NBC Sunday. After five years of decent Law & Order: Criminal Intent on the night, the game changed when NBC acquired Sunday Night Football for fall 2006. It's been the top series on broadcast for over half a decade. The arrangement means NBC has to start from scratch at midseason, and the most reliable performer in that pursuit was Donald Trump's Celebrity Apprentice. See the 2015-16 breakdown.

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