Thursday, September 22, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/21/16


FINALS UPDATE: Empire (4.2) adjusted up while Designated Survivor (2.2) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • Very promising starts for Designated Survivor (96%), which will apparently need a The Muppets-esque collapse not to survive at this point, and Lethal Weapon (91%). The least promising of the three was Speechless at 80%, since it gets compared against the strong ABC comedy department.
  • The True formula liked Blindspot's week two a lot better than the post-Talent preview. I think 84% is too high but I don't think it's that far off... it was definitely a better showing than The Mysteries of Laura, which was perennially in the 50s last year.
  • Seems kinda clear at this point that the preseason "target" guesses were too low. Will be interesting to see if they adjust a lot next week when they account for all the stuff that has overachieved this week. I may come up with a way to have the R% week-to-week changes be based on applying the most recent "target" to both weeks, but we'll see what they look like.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • The hits kept coming on day three of the new season. Wednesday's star of the show was Kiefer Sutherland's ABC drama Designated Survivor (2.3), which built on its lead-in from Black-ish (2.0). It nearly doubled the year-ago Nashville premiere rating. The premiere is only the first step for this kind of show, but it's got a lot of cushion to remain a major improvement in the hour.
    • Earlier in the ABC evening, new comedy Speechless (2.0) opened with the same rating as its The Goldbergs (2.0) lead-in.
    • The returning ABC comedies, The Goldbergs (2.0 in a move to 8/7c), Modern Family (2.6) and Black-ish (2.0), were all down a little less than 20% from last year's premieres (2.4/3.2/2.4 respectively).
  • On Fox, Lethal Weapon (2.2) started promisingly as a lead-in to Empire (4.1). It was helped by its mega-hit lead-out, to be sure (growing from 1.9 to 2.4 at the half), but this was just two tenths behind last year's Rosewood (2.4) launch (while Empire was down a whooping 2.6 points from the same night). Empire opened at about the same rating as its season finale (4.1), but the trend remains downward for premieres from last year's fall (6.7) and spring (4.8).
  • NBC premiered its crime drama lineup to strong results. It started with a solid transition to the 8/7c hour for Blindspot (1.3), followed by Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.6). The procedurals may look a little better than will be the norm going forward, since there was no CBS drama competition. But Blindspot beat the year-ago The Mysteries of Laura (1.2), SVU matched its 1.8 premiere a year ago, and PD was down just a tenth despite the significantly added competition from ABC.
  • And CBS had a healthy opening to the latest Survivor season (2.3), and a healthy close to its summer season with the season finale of Big Brother (2.0). Both were down two tenths year-to-year.
FULL TABLE (FINALS):

ShowTimeslotRenewology
Name
A18-49
Last
y2y
TLa
Ty2y
R%
Last
True
Last
The Goldbergs2.0
-17%
+186%
-5%
99%1.88
Speechless2.0
+150%
-17%
80%1.66
Modern Family2.6
-19%
+189%
-19%
100%2.35
Black-ish2.0
-17%
+150%
-17%
97%1.69
Designated Survivor2.2
+193%
+83%
95%2.10
ABC:
+177%
+4%
Survivor Fall2.3
-8%
+60%
-8%
2.20
Big Brother Wed2.0
+0.2
-9%
+216%
-9%
1.99-0.36
CBS:
+108%
-9%
Blindspot1.3
-0.2
-58%
-54%
+8%
86%+33%1.33+0.19
Law and Order: SVU1.8
0%
-36%
0%
95%1.76
Chicago PD1.6
-6%
+7%
-11%
88%1.53
NBC:
-34%
-2%
Lethal Weapon2.2
+69%
-8%
93%2.00
Empire4.2
-37%
+180%
-37%
100%3.70
Fox:
+129%
-30%
Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R)0.3
-25%
-25%
0.36
Whose Line Is It Anyway?0.3
0
0%
+50%
0.46+0.03
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R)0.4
+33%
+100%
0.47
CW:
-7%
+8%
All:
+59%
-14%
American Horror Story1.79
-0.99
-17%
South Park0.97
-0.35
+11%
Queen Sugar0.44
-0.11
Mr. Robot0.39
+0.07
You're the Worst0.08
-0.06
-47%

The full table can be sorted by clicking any of the category names at the top. Hover over 'Last', 'y2y' and timeslot numbers for more information on the previous episode(s) being compared.


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