Friday, September 30, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/29/16


FINALS UPDATE: Superstore (1.3) and The Good Place (1.3) adjusted up while The Big Bang Theory (R) (1.3/1.3) and Kevin Can Wait (R) (1.1/1.1) and Bull (R) (0.8) and The Flash (R) (0.3) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • Week two was more hopeful for Pitch (up to 58%) and Notorious (still a long shot but up to 32%) after small/no drops.
  • The biggest week-to-week swing in R% to date was Rosewood, shooting all the way up to 66% in week two. It rose when the model expected a drop and had the Fox target come down a lot in the same week, hence an enormous move. Way too much of a swing in my opinion, but if it actually sustains a 0.8, it would admittedly not be that far from the rest of the Fox pack...
  • In the prelims, we're taking a likely optimistic guess at what the NFL Network football rating will be (about 10% below the NFLN-only opener last year). If it comes in below that, and/or if the CBS repeats adjust down to reduce competition, these percentages could come down some in finals.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • ABC's Notorious (1.1) tried to hang on in week two, preliminarily matching its premiere rating as surrounding programs Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and How to Get Away with Murder (1.3) were both down a touch.
  • The Thursday sledding got even tougher on NBC, as Superstore (1.2) took a big hit 8/7c and (at least in the prelims) lost out to even a repeat of The Big Bang Theory (1.4) in their first head-to-head duel. The Good Place (1.2) remained a solid match at 8:30, but the dramas Chicago Med (1.3) and The Blacklist (1.1) dipped further in week two as well.
  • On Fox, Rosewood (0.8) woke up a bit from last week's nightmare opening, while Pitch (1.0) held off the fractionals in week two.
  • CBS had a one-week break from Thursday Night Football, using it to repeat its Monday comedies (1.4/1.3/1.4/1.2) and Bull (0.9). These numbers will probably come down in finals since the network still had some local preemptions for TNF (which was carried nationally on NFL Network only).
FULL TABLE (FINALS):

ShowTimeslotRenewology
Name
A18-49
Last
y2y
TLa
Ty2y
R%
Last
True
Last
Grey's Anatomy2.4
-0.1
+4%
-4%
+4%
100%+0%2.20-0.10
Notorious1.1
0.0
0%
-61%
31%+13%0.92-0.05
How to Get Away with Murder1.3
-0.1
-43%
-7%
-43%
98%+4%1.45-0.10
ABC:
-4%
-35%
The Big Bang Theory (R)1.3
-52%
-48%
1.29
Kevin Can Wait (R)1.1
-82%
-84%
1.11
The Big Bang Theory (R)1.3
-79%
-81%
1.21
Kevin Can Wait (R)1.1
-82%
-84%
1.08
Bull (R)0.8
-87%
-88%
1.00
CBS:
-81%
-83%
Superstore1.3
-0.2
-13%
-19%
92%-3%1.27-0.16
The Good Place1.3
-0.1
-7%
-19%
87%+9%1.30+0.00
Chicago Med1.3
-0.1
-7%
-28%
79%+9%1.29-0.01
The Blacklist1.1
-0.2
-39%
-15%
+10%
73%-6%1.21-0.17
NBC:
-11%
-16%
Rosewood0.8
+0.1
-60%
+14%
-43%
65%+42%0.92+0.07
Pitch1.0
-0.1
-9%
0%
59%+21%1.08-0.09
Fox:
0%
-25%
The Flash (R)0.3
+50%
-25%
0.34
Supernatural (R)0.3
+50%
0%
0.33
CW:
+50%
-14%
All:
-47%
-56%
Thursday Night Football (NFLN only)3.00
+1.53
+87%
Better Things0.15
-0.01

The full table can be sorted by clicking any of the category names at the top. Hover over 'Last', 'y2y' and timeslot numbers for more information on the previous episode(s) being compared.


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