Friday, October 4, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/3/13

  • The hottest show on broadcast TV took another big step up in its season three premiere, as ABC's Scandal went 0.4 points above its high point at the end of last season and 71% above the season two premiere.
  • NBC filled out its comedy Thursday with the very weak premieres of Welcome to the Family and Sean Saves the World (which only got worse after Cleveland pre-emptions were taken out). On premiere night they were already well behind even the weak Up All Night and The Office of yesteryear. Said pre-emptions also made The Michael J. Fox Show (now down 23% from the premiere) and Parenthood (now down a tick) look even worse.
  • CBS also rounded out its comedy lineup with a mediocre premiere from The Millers, which held just 63% of its The Big Bang Theory lead-in. The Crazy Ones dropped 26% in week two, but that's not so bad given its lead-in was down a massive 2.8 points. Two and a Half Men had a stinky second week, shedding a half point.
  • The CW began its drama season by welcoming back The Vampire Diaries and premiering modestly at 9/8c with spin-off The Originals, which probably wanted to take a bit more demo than this to its Tuesday timeslot. Both were well below the TVD/Beauty and the Beast premieres from last year on this night, though that may have been largely due to simulcast debate competition last year.
  • And week two of Glee took the show's trademark huge post-premiere drop. The Cory Monteith tribute comes next week.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Scandal (R) 1.6 35% +33% -16% 1.8
Grey's Anatomy 3.1 41% -9%-0.3+0.4 2/2 -18% -7% -18% 3.4
Scandal 3.6 43% n/an/an/a 1/1 +71% +3% +85% 3.3
The Big Bang Theory 5.2 36% -15%-0.9n/a 3/3 +6% -5% +6% 5.4
The Millers 3.3 32% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -46% -8% 2.9
The Crazy Ones 2.9 31% -26%-1.0-2.8 2/2 n/a -26% -6% 2.6
Two and a Half Men 2.4 33% -17%-0.5-1.0 2/2 -33% -14% -20% 2.4
Elementary 2.0 27% -5%-0.1-0.5 2/2 -20% -5% -22% 2.0
Parks and Recreation 1.2 49% -8%-0.1n/a 2/2 -37% -8% -14% 1.4
Welcome to the Family 1.1 47% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -8% -21% 1.3
Sean Saves the World 1.4 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -36% -36% 1.6
The Michael J. Fox Show 1.7 40% -23%-0.5+0.1 2/2 n/a -19% -11% 1.9
Parenthood 1.5 46% -6%-0.1-0.5 2/2 -6% -6% +43% 1.6
The X Factor Thu 2.0 36% -5%-0.1n/a 3/4 -38% -5% -37% 2.2
Glee 1.6 46% -20%-0.4-0.1 2/2 -38% -20% -38% 1.8
The Vampire Diaries 1.2 59% n/an/an/a 1/1 -25% +380% +700% 1.4
The Originals 1.0 57% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +400% +400% 1.1

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I got "the others" premieres perfect to the tenth! I was a little high on The Millers, but it still should cover the line.

Spot said...

Scandal did excellently! So happy for it! Elsewhere, I think the crazy ones also did well and I think people are being too harsh on the millers and acting like retentions now. I had that impression yesterday when you said it would be a let down for it to pull a 3.0. I don't think it did very well, but I don't think it did poor at all, it did just ok.Grey's also held up quite nicely after its premiere and glee did even worse than i thought. It's insane that it will get to stay on thursday and bones is sent to fridays!

The CW had a vey disapointing start, I hope this is not the shape of things to come for them. TVD is down 0.4 from its debut last year (though that overly high) which doesn't bode well for the rest of the season since usually its fall episodes are by far their highest rated ones. The Originals did okay given the lead-in if it's not adjusted down, even though in absolute terms is also a disappointment, I don't think this bodes well for its tuesday debut when it has no lead-in from tvd and it has to face agents of shield and ncis (and dads might also hurt a bit on the 18-34 I suppose). But I would be careful with beauty and the beast comparions because the lead-in really was much higher a year ago.

NBC did what I expected, except for the Parenthood rise, but I will wait for finals on that one.

Spot said...

Dear Scandal: Please don't adjust down for my own unofficial game/line purposes.

The Originals probably disappointed The CW; they had to hope for more than 75% retention out of The Vampire Diaries. Beauty & the Beast also had a 1.6 VD lead-in last year in addition to debate-related help, so you could argue The Originals did marginally better. Plus, the debut was essentially a Rashomon take off of the back-door pilot last season so some fans may have skipped it think they learned everything (though if they did, they missed the twists in the final scenes).

Spot said...

I think the cw would have been extremely happy with the originals' result... had it been on tuesday! The problem now is that if it gets this on thursday, how low will it go on tuesdays?

Spot said...

As Spot has pointed out, Thursdays at 9:00 skew heavily female with both Grey's Anatomy and Glee there, putting almost any CW show at a disadvantage. (If I programmed The CW, I'd develop something more male-leaning to schedule there a la Arrow or Supernatural to address that.) Plus the night is generally more difficult in the Fall with Thursday Night Football in the mix. Tuesdays at 8:00 should be a little bit easier: there's no football and other than The Biggest Loser the shows (NCIS, SHIELD, Dads & 9-9) feel like they skew more male than fem-focused Originals. Assuming that The CW's local programming lead-in comes within .2 points of The Vampire Diaries, it's not unreasonable to think The Originals will only drop a tick in its move.

Spot said...

Very compelling arguments, and yes, the skew is a very strong point. I remain a bit more optimistic now.

Spot said...

My suggestion of NBC + CW merge is still on.

Time to create the FLOP network

Spot said...

It's gonna be a bit of a breath-holder until we get to see how much, if at all, the Cleveland game affected the NBC shows.

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