Friday, October 11, 2013

The Climate, 2013-14 Week Two

Another quickie look at the big picture through two weeks of 2013-14:

Premiere Week:

Week Ending TPUT y2y bc y2y LeAv y2y
19/29/201331.8 -2% 9.1 -1% 2.49 -0%
210/6/201331.6 -4% 8.5 -2% 2.29 +1%


Week Ending TPUTy2d y2dy2y bcy2d y2dy2y LAy2d y2dy2y
19/29/201331.8 -2% 9.1 -1% 2.49 -0%
210/6/201331.7 -3% 8.8 -2% 2.39 +0%

The big four's "league average" actually grew by 1% year-to-year in week two. On the surface, that's a far more impressive achievement than the premiere week trend, since pretty much all the flops were in play in week two. However, the week two league average was a bit deflated last year because a debate wiped most of the Wednesday heavy hitters off the board. The league average actually went up from week two to week three in 2012, and that ain't happening this year, as the vast majority of shows have dropped this week. So we should finally start to see the year-to-year pain set in during week three.

Click to expand for more on the "climate" numbers used herein.

TPUT - This is an ESTIMATED average of how many people are watching TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
  • I derive these numbers by adding up all the ratings and dividing by all the shares in each of the 42 half-hours each week. That means there is some error relative to the numbers Nielsen actually releases. Sadly we don't regularly have access to those. I always advise not to rely heavily on these numbers for any one show in any one week, but the hope is that the error is minimized across a 42-timeslot sample every week.
  • I include the Old Methodology adjustment, which makes the number more like a measurement of how many people watch primetime programming Live + SD, rather than a measurement of how many people watch any TV (including old DVR stuff) from 8:00 to 11:00. This makes the number perhaps less intuitive in a vacuum, but it's pretty much a wash when making week-to-week and year-to-year comparisons, which is what we're really interested in.
bc - This is an average of how many people are watching national broadcast TV from 8:00 to 11:00.
  • This does NOT include the 10:00 adjustment used in the True2 calculation which attempts to account for Fox/CW programming and stronger cable. Again, that perhaps hurts the number in a vacuum, because the 10:00 numbers being used only include three networks, so I'm averaging timeslots that are somewhat apples-to-oranges. But again, it's a wash when making comparisons because I treat it that way all the time. It would not really change week-to-week or year-to-year comparisons, and that's what I mostly care about.
  • Another important note here is that these numbers include the preliminary averages for "sustaining" programming like presidential debates and commercial-free benefit concerts whose numbers are typically omitted from traditional Nielsen averages. I might eventually omit these from this particular calculation, but they're needed on my spreadsheets to 1) make PUT calculations in those timeslots and 2) create a competition number for the entertainment shows that air against them.
LeAv - This is a measurement of how many people watch the average moment of original entertainment series programming on the big four networks. Meaning, no sports, no reruns, no specials, no movies, no sustaining programming included. This is the number around which this site's A18-49+ number is calculated.


Spot said...

Totally unrelated, but... will there be a Question today? Almost missed the last one.

Spot said...

OK. ;)

Spot said...

Don't cancel Nashville! I love it too much!

Spot said...

Wish granted

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