Wednesday, October 2, 2013

The Question, Wednesday 10/2/13: Will ABC Round Out a Super Fun Night of Comedy?


After a week and a half of mixed at best results for ABC's new family comedies, it's finally time for ABC to use its biggest family comedy lead-in... on a non-family comedy. The critically-drubbed Super Fun Night is here, a show that seems to have been greenlit and given a good timeslot just so ABC could lock down rising star Rebel Wilson. That kind of "greenlight a star rather than a show" situation hasn't worked so well for Fox with The Mindy Project, but maybe Rebel's brand of humor has a broader appeal. Will ABC round out a Super Fun Night of comedy? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 2, 2013.


Post-Modern Family Launches
4.4 (Cougar Town, 9/23/09, 4.2 Modern)
3.7 (Mr. Sunshine, 2/9/11, 5.1 Modern)
2.8 (Happy Endings, 4/13/11, 3.9 Modern)
2.9 (Apartment 23, 4/11/12, 4.2 Modern)
3.2 (The Neighbors, 9/26/12, 5.5 Modern)
2.8 (Suburgatory s2, 10/17/12, 4.7 Modern)
2.9 (How to Live, 4/3/13, 4.2 Modern)

For all the talk about how Modern Family is a "bad" lead-in, ABC has aired plenty of incompatible shows after Modern Family in the past, and they still haven't had a genuinely disappointing series premiere rating yet. But I'm not giving up hope! I'm just not sold that a large contingent is turning on their TVs for Rebel Wilson. Modern Family will remain big enough (probably coming down a few tenths from last week's 4.2) that it'll keep this show from getting into We Are Men territory. But it's the same kind of weird pairing.

Over/Under: 2.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

21 comments:

Spot said...

Tough one. But I'll go with a 2.4 for over, only because the lead-in factor is so strong.

Spot said...

Over. Also a 2.4. I had hoped that this would crash and burn, with Trophy Wife getting the post-MF slot. But with its 1.4 last night, I don't think it'll happen. So I'll just settle for SFN crashing and burning. Haha.

Spot said...

Under. Even with a good raw-numbers lead-in, I don't feel a good omen after seeing the numbers for last night (and for comedy in general aside from Thursday CBS).

Spot said...

Hmm, I was guessing right around your number. But I'll go with...under, with 2.3. It looks terrible, no one knows Rebel Wilson, and unlike Neighbors it doesn't have family appeal factor.

Spot said...

Over- 2.5

Spot said...

Over. The Modern Family lead-in should be enough to send it over.
I'm a seller on the show, but I don't think it'll bomb that hard.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I've said this before and I'll say it again, this is a show that got rejected from the CBS 2012 development slate. You know, the one so bad that they chose not to expand their sitcom hours with five of the top seven scripted shows in broadcast television returning to the schedule. You know, the one where the #1 comedy was Partners.

MF will likely be around a 4.0; can a sitcom premiere pull off sub-60% retention in a half-hour? The Neighbors pulled it off, and that was almost compatible! But it's hard to bet on a repeat when there's no broadcast comedy competition (unless early-stage XF counts, which it might). Over, but it'll have a 1-handle next week.

Spot said...

Over, but will be waaaay under by week 2.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over, even though it feels difficult to be optimistic right now.

Spot said...

Over. Can't see it under 2.4.

Spot said...

I think it will flop but for now it has to be over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

OVER.

With a solid fall-Modern Family debut, no way it debuts under 2.4. It will be way under that number in a few weeks though!

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under. Modern Family will drop to around 3.3.

Spot said...

I'm going to take another big risk and say 2.2 for Under. I will also guess on the side that it scores 3.2 in the female 18-34 demo, which would be decent except I think the male numbers will be quite a bit lower.

Spot said...

Over

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