Monday, October 14, 2013

The Question, Monday 10/14/13: Is CBS Going for Broke or Just Going Broke on Monday?


CBS makes the season's first major in-season scheduling move tonight, removing newbie We Are Men after two episodes. But instead of just plugging the replacement into the 8:30 slot, CBS sent the flailing 9:00 anchor 2 Broke Girls back there, where the usually lead-in dependent show could benefit significantly from the direct How I Met Your Mother lead-in. Meanwhile, it's TV's strongest repeat option The Big Bang Theory at 9/8c for the next three weeks. It has a good chance to do better than the last couple 2 Broke Girls originals. And CBS is hoping that this momentum will carry over at least a bit into the 9:30 half hour where the marginal-rated Mom remains.

Last year, CBS saw almost no bounce the week after killing Partners, mostly because they brought in Two and a Half Men rather than TBBT. They got a massive bounce the next week with Big Bang, though Dancing With the Stars being just an hour was also likely a big factor on that night.

Last week, the three programs in these slots added up to 6.2. (We Are Men 1.8 + 2BG 2.3 + Mom 2.1.)

2 Broke Girls PLUS The Big Bang Theory (R) PLUS Mom Over/Under: 7.45.

23 comments:

Spot said...

The Big Bang Theory alone may recover the 1.3 that's needed for the over, but even if it falls a bit short, I have to think that the other two shows will rise at least a few ticks. "A rising tide" and all that.



2 Broke Girls: 2.7

BBT: 3.0
Mom: 2.5


Over.

Spot said...

Let's see:
2 Broke Girls: 2.5-2.8
The Big Bang Theory: 2.8-3.1
Mom: 2.3-2.7


All amounts to: 7.6-8.6. It would require 2BG and Mom to remain at their levels from last week, which I doubt, plus TBBT going worst case scenario for it to happen. I think TBBT alone should be able to do it, but the others should help a bit to.


Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under. My gut says TBBT just won't have a big enough all-round effect to push it over.


(I'm vastly underrating Big Bang in my mind judging by guesses so far)

Spot said...

OVER.

2 Broke Girls - 2.4
The Big Bang Theory - 2.8
Mom - 2.4

Spot said...

Under. broke 2.5 + bbt (r) 2.2 + mom 2.1 = 6.8

Spot said...

Math...2BG 2.4 + BBT 2.7 + Mom 2.3=7.4. Under.

Spot said...

Over. You can never go broke overestimating the success of The Big Bang Theory.

Spot said...

Over, by a tick or two.

Spot said...

Nice Question, there.

2BG 2.4, TBBT 2.6, Mom 2.3. That's a 7.3. Under.

Whereabouts would you be on the Question standings if you just guessed Under at every broadcast line and Over at every cable line? I'd fancy that'd have actually won last season.

Spot said...

Over

2 Broke Girls : 2.7
The Big Bang Theory :2.7
Mom : 2.3

Spot said...

Over. TBBT should account for at least 0.9 of the required upwards difference, and I don't think its unreasonable to expect Mom + 2 Broke Girls to increase by 0.4.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

2BG 2.6 + TBBT 2.7 + Mom 2.3 = 7.6. Over!

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I made a spreadsheet of last season (but not the mini-season this past summer) to search for patterns by day of the week, month, and network(s) because I had similar questions. I believe if you picked under for every game last season you would have been correct approximately 55% of the time for the broadcasters; I have to double-check by stats for the month of May. It became an oddity that as the over/under results started to even out, a string of unders would occur. Looking at the few cable Questions that season one had, the O/U results were 3 & 4 respectively.

Last season if any of these environments were involved, you were generally better off picking Under: Tuesdays, Sundays, the month of February, The CW, or CBS. Unless I entered the data in wrong, CBS only went Over once in a single network Question (it was The Question about Rules of Engagement. And it only passed that Line by half a point!). Meanwhile, Over was barely the better bet for: Thursdays, Fox, and the month of January. And you could flip a coin for: Mondays, ABC, NBC (dead even by my stats!), September, & October.


I was hoping to see Spot's take on last season but I figured the summer got away from him and keeping current was more important at this stage. My interpretation is that Under became a better bet for certain reasons: the lackluster Tuesdays and Sundays made it easier to be a pessimist, while CBS suffered from the lofty expectations it had as a generally stable network.


BTW, out of the Top 10 last season I was the second-most optimistic person and I still came in second place & tied Billie_Dawn's win percentage.


Sorry for rambling but I wanted to share. :-)

Spot said...

What happened to we are men?
Needs to be renewed

Spot said...

Fascinating! That 55% shows either Spot sets good lines or makes errors in each direction with similar regularity. Or both. I'm thinking both, actually!

Still sticking with Under for this line, though. And not just because it's a CBS line. ;)

Spot said...

Girls: 2.6 (up .3)
Bang (R): 2.6 (.8 more than WaM)
Mom: 2.3 (up .2)
Total: 7.5 for Over


Mother: 3.0 (not included) (flat)
Hostages: 1.5 (up .3) (not included)

Spot said...

I can't imagine Hostages suddenly upticking 0.3, sounds a lot

Spot said...

Thanks for sharing, really cool stuff

Spot said...

Amazing work! As you surmised, I had meant to do an Accountability post revisiting The Question (as I did for First2Weeks & Best Case/Worst Case), but I couldn't get it done before vacation, so I put it off to the end of the summer season, and by that point I was swarmed under with the layout/True tweaks/Best Case/Worst Case and it got lost in the shuffle.


The standings update SHOULD come this weekend, and I will try to look at some of this stuff.

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