Monday, February 4, 2013

The Question, Monday 2/4/13: Can CBS Engage 8:30 Viewers on Super Monday?


The show that won't die is back. Rules of Engagement begins its seventh (!) season tonight, and it's coming off a year in which its 18-49 average actually upticked slightly due to a surging The Big Bang Theory lead-in. It won't have quite as favorable a timeslot this year, returning to the Monday 8:30 hour to pair with How I Met Your Mother. But it might benefit from the promotion for the Monday lineup during last night's Super Bowl. Can CBS Engage 8:30 viewers on Super Monday? That's The Question for Monday, February 4, 2013.

Rules of Engagement Last Season Previous 8:30 Occupants
3.6/2.91/2.1 (premiere/average/finale)
3.34 (fall average) (4.73 average lead-in)
2.54 (spring post-hiatus average (2.66 after originals, 4.46 average lead-in))
2.07 (Partners)
3.28 (The Big Bang Theory (R) when mixed with originals)
2.10 (2 Broke Girls/Two and a Half Men (R) when mixed with originals)

Rules of Engagement in originals is almost certainly a weaker show than The Big Bang Theory in repeats, and probably a much weaker show. But the wild card in this pick is the "Super Monday" effect. It's not so much that CBS promoted the hell out of Rules last night. They didn't. But they did promote the Monday block as a whole a fair amount, so it might ride an upswing from How I Met Your Mother and 2 Broke Girls. Skimming over what happened on this night in 2007 and 2010, seems reasonable to expect Rules could be around 10% bigger than it would "normally" be.

Over/Under: 3.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

16 comments:

Spot said...

Sure, I'll bite. HIMYM and 2BG are doing better now than in the fall. Bones/Following is still going to be formidable, and I wouldn't be shocked to see more growth from one or both.

Mother: 3.7
Rules: 3.3 (OVER)
Girls: 3.9
M&M: 3.6

Spot said...

Seems a reasonable enough number to manage. Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I assume it includes Hawaii Five-0. Otherwise 3.05 would be absurd low.

Still going with over, 3.2.
(4.0 + 2.8 + 4.0 + 3.5 + 2 * 2.5 ) / 6 = 3.22

Spot said...

HIMYM: 3.9
Rules: 3.4 (Over)
2BG: 4.0
M&M: 3.6
H 5-0: 2.5

Spot said...

The guess was just for Rules, meaning that you chose the under.

Spot said...

Thanks a lot.

Then I'm changing my guess to under, hopefully Spot notices it.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over.


I love the show, so I'm hoping for at least a 3.2.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under. The highest it rated last Spring was 2.7, despite the BBT lead-in.

Spot said...

Under

Nicholas Nuccio said...

2.7. Under. And I think I'm being generous.

Spot said...

Another one hidden by Disqus. Nicholas Nuccio went UNDER (2.7)

Spot said...

Over.

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