Wednesday, February 13, 2013

The Question, Wednesday 2/13/13: Will This Survivor Season be a Fan Favorite?


Tonight, slumping Survivor returns after dropping 14% in spring 2012 and 15% in the fall. This season marks the return of the "Fans vs. Favorites" concept. For most reality shows, all-star seasons haven't been all that big a deal ratings-wise. Survivor is arguably an exception; the first all-star season in 2004 was the only significantly up year-to-year season in Survivor history (the Super Bowl exposure may have helped too), and even the first Fans vs. Favorites season in 2008 helped slow the bleeding amid one of Survivor's previous slumps. Will this Survivor season be a fan favorite? That's The Question for Wednesday, Feburary 13, 2013.

Recent Survivor Premieres/Avgs/Finales
4.5/3.91/4.2 (spring 2010)
4.0/3.68/4.1 (fall 2010)
3.2/3.28/4.0 (spring 2011)
3.4/3.35/4.0 (fall 2011)
3.1/2.83/2.9 (spring 2012)
3.2/2.86/3.2 (fall 2012)

The Fox press release might get to tout another "lowest-rated Survivor premiere ever," if only because American Idol is tougher competition than fall's The X Factor. But Idol is not as tough as it was last year, so I'm expecting the bleeding to slow for Survivor this season, maybe as much because of that as because of the all-star season. I'm guessing tonight will be right at last spring's premiere or a tick lower.

Over/Under: 3.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

13 comments:

Spot said...

God, this is a tough one. But my gut says over, although I think it will be close.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I'm going to say over, but really, I could have just flipped a coin and let that make my decision. Tough one.

Spot said...

I am truly trowing a guess here.. Over

Spot said...

I'm going to say just barely under at 3.0.

Spot said...

It better be over! I will say 3.2 (OVER). The FvF season should help, but to a limited extent, as all of the favorites, except for Corinne, are from after the move to Wednesdays, when the ratings have been lower.

Spot said...

I cannot wait for tonight- with the Survivor premiere and Duke/ UNC

Spot said...

This is a tough cookie to crack. With a one and a half hour episode, I have to wonder if the audience will steadily grow or shrink.


My guess: Over, but just barely.

Spot said...

over

Nicholas Nuccio said...

3.0, so UNDER, but barely. The Fans v Favorites bonus should be neutralized by the fact that there's so much more competition from the middle of September to February sweeps.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I would've picked under. CBS has been having bad luck lately.

Spot said...

Nicholas Nuccio: 3.0, so UNDER, but barely. The Fans v Favorites bonus should be
neutralized by the fact that there's so much more competition from the
middle of September to February sweeps.

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