Tuesday, February 19, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 2/19/13: Will ABC Proof It Made the Right Renewal?


Doubleheader day! Look for the Cult Question at 2:00 ET.

One of the most surprising renewals of 2012 upfront season was ABC's sophomore procedural Body of Proof, a show that struggled to hit a 2.0 demo with a good Dancing with the Stars lead-in and was much lower without that lead-in. It's back tonight with DWTS' return still a month away. The good news: ABC has a special Tuesday The Bachelor leading in, and its broadcast competitors in the slot are very weak. Will ABC Proof it made the right renewal? That's The Question for Tuesday, February 19, 2013.

Body of Proof Last Season Previous Occupant Private Practice
2.2/1.74/1.9 (premiere/average/finale)
1.50 (average without DWTS lead-in)
1.94 (average with DWTS lead-in)
1.9/1.33/1.5 (premiere/average/finale)

I didn't think this show deserved a renewal, but it is hard to count out anything facing Vegas and Smash. It seems quite possible this show had more crossover with last year's CBS offering (Unforgettable) than with anything in the mix this year. I would imagine Body of Proof is less compatible with The Bachelor than with Dancing; see also Castle, which has done no better after Bachelor than after DWTS, even though Bachelor's actually noticeably larger now. But it's still probably more compatible here than with last year's frequent lead-in The River. So a low-to-mid-2's lead-in should get the show pretty close to last season's finale number.

Over/Under: 1.85.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

23 comments:

Spot said...

I'll take the over. Terrible timeslot competition plus a decent lead-in could boost it to a 2.0.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under. I think the fandom spoke last year. I predict mass rejection in the vein of Smash.

Spot said...

Over: 1.9 or 2.0

Spot said...

The Bachelor's special Tuesday episode on February 5</a. was a then-season high with a 2.7. So for tonight it'll have its best lead-in until Stars comes back next month.

Spot said...

If The Bachelor has another high 2's/low 3's night, I think Body of Proof will be able to capitalize on the weak timeslot. Last season's Unforgettable/Parenthood/Body of Proof competition tried to pull the same female audience; this time around it'll be easier since Vegas just skews old and Smash will get even weaker with a New Normal lead-in.


Over.

Spot said...

I want to say over but I am going with under. Probably the weakest spot on the Sunday-Thursday schedule.

Spot said...

Oh, ok. That's some food for thought, although I still don't want to immediately accept the mass rejection theory straight out of the gate.

Spot said...

Slightly over I think.

Spot said...

It did rally a bit at the end of last season if I remember right and the competition is weak but with the state ABC Tuesday's have been this season, I still don't really see it being even with the finale, just set a tad too high for my liking. Under.

Spot said...

Over, but not for long.

Spot said...

I am actually changing it to over if that is okay (which means it will probably be under lol). The Bachelor should do okay enough as a lead-in for it not to drop much and I think there might be some natural interest to see the revamped version of a show and the resolution of the last year's cliffhanger, after all it was a big one. And yeah, the competition or lack of it should help. It should at least finish in first tonight, as little as that says. So, if it still okay to change it, over.

Spot said...

I'm revising my guess. Over. Chris L's little Tuesday Bachelor tidbit swayed me.

Spot said...

I think tonight's Tuesday Bachelor will not do as well as the one two weeks ago, at least compared to the Monday ep from the same week. This is just a "tell-all" interview thingee whereas I believe the last Tuesday ep was a full-fledged two-hour episode with eliminations and stuff. Could be wrong about that, but that's what I gleaned from looking at the episode descriptions.


Either way, it figures that the one time I actually post an over/under in the morning, it is contingent to some extent on the ratings from the previous night. Lesson learned!

Spot said...

DAMN IT!!! Stop doing that, everyone! I'm already flip-floppier on this than the Price Is Right game of the same name!! I don't need MORE CONFUUUUUUSSSSSSSSSSIIIIIIIIIOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Spot said...

That's tough. We know that it can get high 1s-low 2s for big episodes

Spot said...

Sorry. Cut it short. ...and I realize that the competition is especially weak, but I just think that the audience may not quite be there. I thought 1.7 before I clicked the link, and I will stay under at 1.7.

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Under- 1.6

Nicholas Nuccio said...

Under (but barely) at 1.8. It will (sadly) tumble down to the 1.4/1.5 range for the rest of the season, at least until DWTS comes back.

Spot said...

Nicholas Nuccio: "Under (but barely) at 1.8. It will (sadly) tumble down to the 1.4/1.5
range for the rest of the season, at least until DWTS comes back."

Spot said...

Under.
No reason except for not liking this show, I couldn't even make it through pilot.

As for "One of the most surprising renewals of 2012 upfront season"
Last season California TV/Film Tax Credit saved this show . It makes BoP some 20% cheaper than average broadcast drama costs.

Spot said...

Over. It ended last season at 1.9/2.0.

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