Tuesday, February 5, 2013

The Question, Tuesday 2/5/13: Will NBC Smash the Expectations?


Yes, folks, NBC is back... to where they were a year ago. That's been the harsh reality of almost all of NBC's between-Voice hiatus. 365 days after NBC's 2012 big Super Monday, NBC premieres the same show they launched on that night: the Broadway drama Smash. Hopes are not quite so high this year; despite its surprising Golden Globe nomination, it lost almost all its critical support over the course of season one. And this year, it loses its big lead-in. Will NBC Smash the expectations? That's The Question for Tuesday, February 5, 2013.

Smash Last Season Lead-in (Betty White's 2nd 90th B-Day)
3.8/2.27/1.8 (premiere/average/finale)
5.13 (average The Voice lead-in)
1.86 (last 5 ep average (3.96 The Voice))
2.7 (Betty White's 90th Birthday, 1/16/12)
1.64 (Off Their Rockers avg this winter)

Smash is probably going to end up with ratings well below what it got last year after The Voice. But I'm thinking it will come near its late-season level... for one week, anyway. Shows like Fringe and Happy Endings have moved to much worse situations and been able to hold up for a week or two before collapsing. And new cast member Jennifer Hudson may be a draw. But I don't expect the Betty White special leading in will do nearly as well as last year. It should be closer to the Off Their Rockers average than to last year's number.

Smash Over/Under: 1.75.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

14 comments:

Spot said...

Under. 1.7

Spot said...

Under.

Nicholas Nuccio said...

Hmm. This is tough.
I'll go under. 1.6.

Spot said...

Nicholas Nuccio: Under (1.6)

Spot said...

Under
1.5

Spot said...

Gonna take a chance on this and say Over at maybe 1.9

Spot said...

My gut tells me under, but I have no idea as to by how much. UNDER

Spot said...

has to be under

Spot said...

Smash is going to be hurt by the weaker lead-in since I think Betty White fever has cooled, and possibly by ABC airing a special Tuesday episode of The Bachelor. NCIS: LA could also pick this week to have one of its stronger outings. Seriously: some weeks it fumbles more than a point and others it's down less than .3 from NCIS. And both shows are down the same 14% year-to-year. Weird...

In any event, Under.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over. Surely a reboot with Jennifer Hudson can do a few tenths better than Goon.

Spot said...

I'm going with over, if only by a tenth or two.

Spot said...

I'll say over at 2.0. An uninspiring start, and it'll just get worse from there.

Spot said...

Over

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