Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight. I'm also throwing the week two premieres into this post, since there are surprisingly few week two premieres and even fewer actual interesting ones.
Sunday, September 25, 2016
Saturday, September 24, 2016
- CBS made a huge Premiere Friday splash with a truly explosive premiere from MacGyver (1.7) at 8/7c. It's been almost three years since a Friday night drama hit even a raw number this high (Bones and Hawaii Five-0 each hit 1.8's in 2014). On a historical adjusted basis, you'd definitely have to go at least back to the Numb3rs premiere (a 5.0/123 Plus in January 2005) and probably back to Law and Order: SVU's run on the night in the early 2000s. The show skewed much younger than the other CBS crime dramas, with less than a million more total viewers but a 0.4 advantage in the demo.
- MacGyver also helped its compatible lead-out Hawaii Five-0 (1.3), which easily trounced its 1.0 year-ago premiere and was near its highest raw number of last season. And Blue Bloods (1.3) matched last year's opener.
- Though overshadowed by CBS, Fox also had a nice opening Friday with the return of Hell's Kitchen (1.1) and premiere of drama The Exorcist (1.0). Hell's tied its last Friday premiere in January, while Exorcist has given itself a chance to be much stronger than Fox's recent scripted efforts on the night.
- ABC may be seeing its run of Friday dominance slipping away; Last Man Standing (1.1) returned well in the lead-off spot, but Dr. Ken (0.9) tied its season one low point, and Shark Tank (1.1) had a particular stinker at 9/8c. (It never got as low as 1.1 on Friday all of last season.) 20/20 (0.7) was also soft.
- NBC had Superstore (0.6) and The Good Place (0.6) encores, plus Dateline (0.8/1.1).
Friday, September 23, 2016
FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.5) and Thursday Night Football (6.1) and Superstore (1.5) and The Good Place (1.4) adjusted up while Notorious (1.1) and The Flash (R) (0.2) and Supernatural (R) (0.2) adjusted down.
- The model became more pessimistic along with the ratings on night four of the season, opening Rosewood (28%) and Notorious (25%) as big long-shots to be renewed. (These numbers may still be too high, though.) Subjectively, Pitch actually could be a bit low at 41%, but this formula doesn't weigh lead-ins as heavily as our eyes do sometimes.
- After three solid days to open the new season, Premiere Thursday brought plenty of red meat for the broadcast TV schadenfreude crowd. For ABC Thursday, usually the night's defining scripted lineup, it was immediately clear that Scandal is missed. Grey's Anatomy (2.4) was still pretty close to its usual self, down just four tenths from last year's premiere. But its lead-out Notorious (1.2) was a very, very pale imitation of Scandal even on premiere night with measly 50% retention. How to Get Away with Murder (1.4) managed to perk up at 10/9c, but was still at barely half of last year's 2.6 premiere!
- NBC's Thursday revamp may have some potential for long-term improvement, but it was far from a breakout and demonstrated the difficulty of starting over on the night. Sophomores Superstore (1.4) and Chicago Med (1.4) both returned toward the low the end of their season one raw numbers. Superstore's lead-out The Good Place (1.3) had good retention, while The Blacklist (1.3) made a fair transition to the 10/9c hour.
- And Fox had a rough start to its latest remake of Thursday night, as sophomore Rosewood (0.7) opened even lower than all of its without-Empire episodes from last season, and provided the year's first fractional scripted result by a wide margin. New drama Pitch (1.1) built by a lot on its lead-in, and can safely be called a better start than Notorious in context, but the concept clearly didn't bring in interest on a wide scale.
- CBS had its second week of Thursday Night Football; more after finals.
Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight!
These numbers are current through Wednesday, September 21.
- Maybe it is possible for American Horror Story to have a bigger collapse than last year?! It was down almost a full point in week two to 1.79, and -17% compared to week two of last year (after a -7% on premiere night). However, this is an irregular time of year for it to premiere, and it's never gone head-to-head with the return of broadcast competition for week two. So we'll see. Fellow Wednesday breakthrough South Park (0.97) also had a sharp week two decline, but still had better raw numbers than the year-ago week two.