Friday, November 21, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/20/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: After finals adjustments, it was still a big week-to-week drop for The Big Bang Theory (4.1), while Mom (2.5) landed down a tenth and Two and a Half Men (2.2) up a tenth vs. last week. NBC's The Biggest Loser (1.1) ended up tying its season low, but the schizophrenic Parenthood (1.3) bounced all the way back from last week's huge drop. Reign hit a truly ugly 0.3.
  • Fall finale week for TGIT produced a nice bit of growth for How to Get Away with Murder (3.1), up for the third straight week and hitting its biggest number since week three. But there were no real spikes for Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and Scandal (3.1).
  • CBS should suffer less Thursday Night Football pre-emption damage than usual, as the only pre-emption was in the Pacific time zone, but some of the early programming was bumped. In preliminaries, The Big Bang Theory (4.0) took a noticeable hit, Mom (2.7) and Two and a Half Men (2.3) were slightly up, and The McCarthys (1.4) and Elementary (1.0) were flat.
  • NBC may take more finals damage due to a Kansas City pre-emption; as of now, The Biggest Loser (1.3), Bad Judge (1.2), A to Z (0.9) and Parenthood (1.5) were all up.
  • On the CW, The Vampire Diaries (0.8) recovered last week's one-tenth drop, while everything else there and on Fox was flat.

The New and Improved 2014-15 SpotVault, Phase III: True Tables


As of today, I'm adding a new table for each original entertainment show in the SpotVault, detailing how much each episode's True score is affected by the three (or four) major aspects of the formula. This is probably a dangerous way to go, as it may just serve to expose the problems with the formula, but hopefully that will only motivate further improvements going forward. I'm using this post not just as an explainer for what's in the table but also as a recap of how the formula works in general (and what's new this year).

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/19/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Stalker surge was tempered a bit after it lost a tick in finals (1.6). Nothing else adjusted, which meant the season's first final 0.6 for The 100.
  • This was the first Wednesday in quite some time without some major event inflating one of the networks, plus the end of DST helping early-evening viewing. And it showed, as almost every network had something to crow about. We'll start with ABC, which had a great opening 90 minutes. A largely underwhelming season of The Middle (2.2) finally took a significant turn for the better, rising above all previous results this season. The Goldbergs (2.4) was up 0.3 to tie a season high, while Modern Family (3.7) came up just a tenth shy of its premiere's high point. Black-ish (2.6) and Nashville (1.5) were also up a tenth in prelims.
  • On CBS, Survivor (2.4) had its best rating since early October, and Stalker (1.7) bounced all the way back to the level it had been maintaining before all these events.
  • NBC continued to show nicely in the wake of its big crossover last week, with The Mysteries of Laura (1.4), Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.6) all faring a bit better than their usual pre-event deliveries.
  • Fox and the CW were steady across the board with last week's preliminaries, meaning yet another week of The 100 hoping to hold onto a preliminary 0.6 (a feat it has yet to pull off in three tries this season).

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/18/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Chicago Fire (2.1) adjusted up in finals to finish down just a tenth week-to-week (and ahead of a year-ago episode that had a Voice lead-in). The Flash (1.4) ended up even for the second straight week, The Voice (2.7) got back a tenth as well, and Marry Me (1.5) lost one.
  • After getting mowed down by NBC's event last week, CBS bounced all the way back with NCIS (2.6), NCIS: New Orleans (2.3) and Person of Interest (1.6) all growing by three tenths week-to-week. This put each show right back on par with its season average.
  • Despite a low rating for The Voice (2.6) at 8/7c, NBC saw Marry Me (1.6) and About a Boy (1.3) bounce back to near the numbers when they last followed a fully original Voice three weeks ago. And Chicago Fire (2.0) had a particularly promising night at 10/9c; this was its highest result of the season leading out of About a Boy, and just two tenths behind the post-Voice ep last week.
  • ABC shook it up at 8/7c again and improved on recent comedy hours with a Shark Tank repeat (1.1). This may have helped Agents of SHIELD (1.6) a little bit.
  • MasterChef Junior (1.5) finally came back to earth somewhat on Fox; maybe some of its viewers flocked to the Shark Tank repeat? But New Girl (1.4) gained a tenth opposite less competition from NBC.
  • And the CW's The Flash (1.3) was down a tenth and Supernatural (1.0) up a tenth.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/16/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (3.0) rose to tie last week's rating.
  • On a second straight Sunday with the NFL overrun, things went much better for Fox. Though The Simpsons (2.9) was only about even, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.2) and Family Guy (2.2) each took sizable upticks, and the installation of Bob's Burgers (1.7) at 9:30 nearly doubled last week's Mulaney rating.
  • ABC pre-empted Resurrection to air a two-hour edition of Once Upon a Time (2.4/2.3). Though Once's ratings were on the low end for this season, the better lead-in really seemed to help Revenge (1.5), which easily hit a season high.
  • On another without-overrun CBS night, Madam Secretary (1.5) pulled ahead of The Good Wife (1.3), while CSI (1.3) inched up from last week's low.

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 11/15/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Another narrow escape for Florida State produced the second-biggest number of the season for Saturday Night Football (3.0), behind only the FSU game against Notre Dame from a month ago.

Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/14/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Shark Tank (1.8) went up to avoid a new season low.
  • CBS ill-advisedly went off the ratings map on Friday, pre-empting its regular lineup for the invisible Hollywood Film Awards (0.5 and 4.1 million viewers) and a post-show in the 10:00 hour (0.4). This was down by more than half from CBS' usual Friday average.
  • Unfortunately, only a few scattered series took advantage, including Fox's repeat lineup of MasterChef Junior (0.7) and Gotham (0.6). Among originals, the most notable rise was ABC's 8/7c hour, where Last Man Standing (1.5) surged to a new season high and brought Cristela (1.1) up a notch as well. But ABC actually fared worse than usual in the later hours with Shark Tank (1.7) and 20/20 (1.2). NBC followed the same pattern: good at 8/7c with Dateline (1.5) but down later with Grimm (1.2) and what looks like a decisive death blow for Constantine (0.8).

SpotVault - State of Affairs (NBC) - 2014-15 Ratings





State of Affairs
Mondays, 10/9c, NBC







Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 11/17/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: ABC wasn't damaged too badly in finals and ended up with a pretty stellar night, especially for Dancing with the Stars (2.3), which shot to 0.3 above the level it's maintained pretty much since the start of the regular season. The Voice (3.1) and Sleepy Hollow (1.6) each went up a tenth.
  • While not a disaster, it was not a great start for NBC's State of Affairs (2.2), which went a couple tenths below the lowest number NBC has ever seen from The Blacklist with a The Voice lead-in. The Blacklist comparisons aren't particularly apt in terms of gauging renewal prospects, since that show is well above the renewal line. But at this starting level, it would be fortunate to settle at what Chicago Fire gets leading out of the Tuesday comedy block, so there doesn't seem to be much potential for an upper-tier performer here. It is worth noting that the show didn't get a lot of help from The Voice (3.0), down again to tie its lowest performance show rating ever.
  • The absence of The Blacklist seemed to help NCIS: Los Angeles (1.7) on CBS. It may have helped Castle too (2.0), though its current number is inflated by Monday Night Football pre-emptions. Most other shows were pretty steady week-to-week, with 2 Broke Girls (2.1) rebounding a bit and Jane the Virgin (0.4) giving back last week's uptick.

Monday, November 17, 2014

The Question, Monday 11/17/14: What is the State of Affairs in the Post-Voice Timeslot?


Approximately halfway between September premiere week and January premiere week, usually very light time of year for new series premieres, NBC is trotting out one of its biggest new drama hopes of the season. State of Affairs is another drama in the political thriller space that has seen plenty of recent successes like Scandal, The Blacklist and Homeland. This particular show is most notable as a vehicle for the highly polarizing Katherine Heigl, returning to TV after once finding fame on Grey's Anatomy. What is the State of Affairs in the post-Voice timeslot? That's The Question for Monday, November 17, 2014.


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