Spotted Ratings, Thursday 2/26/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: American Idol (2.2) and The Blacklist (1.9) each gained a tenth.

• It was a pretty encouraging week two for The Odd Couple (2.8), down just three tenths to tie the Mom high point in the slot as its The Big Bang Theory lead-in was even at 4.5. Speaking of Mom, it made its transition to the 9:30 half-hour at a 2.1, tying the last rating it posted after a repeat Big Bang. And CBS went way below usual Elementary numbers with a Victoria's Secret special (1.0).

• A Scandal-free edition of TGIT did modest business by its lofty standards. Grey's Anatomy (2.2) hit a low and led into the two-hour finale of How to Get Away with Murder (2.8), which dropped a tenth week-to-week in a special hour with a worse lead-in.

• NBC saw The Blacklist (1.8) mercifully inch back up, though The Slap (0.7) and Allegiance (0.8) were both down. Fox was even with American Idol (2.1) and Backstrom (0.9).

Best Case/Worst Case, Early March 2015: The Last Man on Earth, CSI: Cyber, American Crime and more!

Best Case/Worst Case is back to preview one of the busiest five-day stretches of midseason. We're covering just the seven premieres from Sunday to Thursday here. There should be another post in a couple more weeks or so.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 2/25/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Empire (5.4) added a tenth to go 0.2 above last week's final, while Survivor (2.4) was up to even year-to-year. Arrow (1.1) and American Idol (2.7) were also up; Black-ish (2.2), Nashville (1.3) and The 100 (0.5) were down.

• Yep, it grew again. Empire posted a 5.3 preliminary rating this week, up two tenths from last week's prelim and a tenth from last week's final. It's now within two tenths of the top broadcast entertainment rating of the season, The Big Bang Theory's premiere. Its lead-in American Idol (2.6) was down to a Wednesday season low, but that's still very close to even year-to-year. The bad news for Idol is it gets just two more airings alongside Empire.

• CBS premiered both of its spring reality shows with 90-minute episodes; Survivor (2.3) was down noticeably from the last premiere in the fall but very close to the year-ago 2.4 spring 2014 premiere. And the temporary return to a weeknight with a seemingly compatible lead-in wasn't of that much help to The Amazing Race (1.5). This was well above the Friday fall premiere (1.1) but only tied the spring 2014 premiere against the Olympics.

• ABC had another very strong comedy night; though The Middle (2.0) slumped a bit in the lead-off role, there were noticeable bounces for stunts on The Goldbergs (2.5) and Modern Family (3.4), and Black-ish (2.3) also inched up a bit more.

• And NBC also had something interesting to report as The Mysteries of Laura (1.4) had a significant bounce in the lead-off role. I always thought The Mentalist was hurting it, but one would think this much growth probably has at least something to do with Debra Messing's Will and Grace co-star Eric McCormack appearing. We'll see what's left when it next airs, which apparently won't be for several weeks.

• On the CW, Arrow (1.0) headed to hiatus on a slightly down note, and you guessed it, another preliminary 0.6 for The 100...

First Two Weeks, The Slap

Note: I was going to follow the bear's lead on this and skip this game, saying this show was a mini-series that never had a chance at renewal. I'm not 100% sure that's true, but the voting here would very likely be unanimous anyway, so it didn't seem to be worth the time and space. However, I realized that in the past I have given myself a win for similarly murky shows like The Assets. So for record-keeping purposes, everyone will be locked in with a "Cancel (Confident)" here. I'm providing this post just in case anyone would like to "opt out" and predict something else. If you want "Cancel (Confident)," no response is necessary!

The Question Results Through 2/23/15

Here are the standings through February 23 for the ratings prediction game The Question:

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 2/24/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: There must have been some weird preemptions, as there were several atypical adjustments; NCIS (2.3), NCIS: New Orleans (2.0), Fresh Off the Boat (1.8) and New Girl (1.3) all went down. Only The Voice (3.9) went up.

• NBC's The Voice (3.8) had a solid Tuesday return, growing by a tenth vs. the one-hour Tuesday premiere from last spring (though it was slightly below the 4.1 fall Tuesday premiere). But it didn't seem to much affect the one-hour series finale of Parks and Recreation (1.6). This was a two-season high and up about 40% vs. the hour of originals last week, but it probably wouldn't have done much worse (at least in the demo) in its usual 8/7c slot.

• The story for the competitors was pretty similar to how it played out on Monday; namely, ABC and Fox were almost remarkably resilient. This was particularly good news for Fresh Off the Boat (1.9), which was dead even at a very good number against two more points of NBC competition. Week two of Repeat After Me (1.3) and the Agent Carter finale (1.3) each lost a tenth. Fox saw a small drop for MasterChef Junior (1.6) but no change for New Girl (1.4) and The Mindy Project (1.1).

• Again, CBS took a minor hit for the combo of NCIS (2.4) and NCIS: New Orleans (2.0), but the week-to-week numbers don't look bad because they had already taken noticeable drops the week before. Meanwhile, Person of Interest (1.7) was above average at 10/9c as its main drama competitor Chicago Fire sat out for the night.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 2/22/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The Oscars inched a bit higher to 11.0 in finals, but the year-to-year picture was the same: down 16% from last year's 13.1 final. The red carpet stuff was down around 10%. The Walking Dead had a noticeable bounce to 6.93, marking its first positive year-to-year point this spring.

• UPDATE: Time zone-adjusted fast nationals have Oscar at 36.6 million viewers and a 10.8 rating. That's down 16% from the time zone number last year, and it's not impossible that it could adjust below the all-time 18-49 low in finals (a 10.7 in 2008).
• The grand finale to Sunday event season was the Academy Awards (34.6 million viewers, 10.3 A18-49), the only program of any real consequence on the broadcast networks. This preliminary 18-49 result from 8:30 to 11:00 is down 15% year-to-year, another somewhat underwhelming result in what has been a rather soft season for awards shows. Since it aired live in all time zones and stretched way out of primetime, expect adjustments. (The ceremony adjusted from 12.1 prelim -> 12.9 time zone-adjusted prelim -> 13.1 final last year.)

• Among the repeats, only 7:30 (1.0) and 8:00 (1.2) episodes of The Simpsons broke a 1.0. Somewhat notably, Simpsons actually beat its original number from a week ago (and tied the one from two weeks ago). Perhaps the departure of Mulaney helps. 

Spotted Ratings, Saturday 2/21/15

Spotted Ratings, Friday 2/20/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• There was many a post-Valentine's rebound on the last Friday of February sweeps, but the biggest was for usual Friday champ Shark Tank (2.2), which tied its season high and could tie its series high if it adjusts up in finals. Its lead-out 20/20 (1.6) also had a very good night, perhaps benefiting from no Dateline competition. At 8/7c, Last Man Standing posted its fourth consecutive 1.3, but Cristela (0.9) had a discouraging result in Roseanne's return stint.

• CBS also fared well, with the Undercover Boss finale (1.3) inching up and procedurals Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) and Blue Bloods (1.5) each up two tenths. That marked a new season high for Blue Bloods.

• NBC continued to get outstanding mileage out of Sunday's Saturday Night Live 40th special, as a three-hour repeat (1.5) was much stronger than the network's usual lineup and made the network a very close second place overall.

• Fox was even with World's Funniest Fails (0.8) and Glee (0.6), and Hart of Dixie (0.4) ticked down from its last ep two weeks ago.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 2/23/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (4.1) adjusted up to tie the fall premiere. Gotham (2.3) also added a tenth, making it a half point of growth in two weeks. And Castle dropped to its third consecutive 1.6.
  

• NBC returned to ratings relevancy with the latest two-hour premiere of The Voice (4.0). This was down 15% from an Olympics-promoted premiere a year ago, and very close to the fall 2014 premiere's 4.1 which faced huge competition.

• But if that was fairly as-expected, the good news ended promptly at 10/9c. Former summer drama The Night Shift (1.5) just barely retained a third of its Voice 9:30 lead-in (4.4) and couldn't even get to its high point from the summer. It's gotta be hugely disheartening for NBC to see a Voice premiere lead-out drop all the way to third place, behind both Castle (1.7) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.6). This was basically where State of Affairs settled in its last post-Voice weeks; how much worse can it possibly get?!

• Despite the added NBC presence, ABC's The Bachelor (2.6) and Castle (1.7) were completely unfazed and Fox's Gotham (2.2) comeback rolled on, picking up another tenth (and now four in the last two weeks). The season and perhaps series finale of Sleepy Hollow (1.4) was even.

• The only network that got nicked at all was CBS, as 2 Broke Girls (2.1), Mike and Molly (2.0) and Scorpion (2.1) all went back to about what they were doing when they last faced The Voice in December.