Friday, October 28, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/27/16

  • CBS' fall rollout finally concluded with the premiere of its new Thursday lineup: The Big Bang Theory (3.4), newbie The Great Indoors (2.0), returning comedies Mom (1.6) and Life in Pieces (1.5), and new drama Pure Genius (1.2). How they actually did is still not at all clear because the network was preempted in the local Thursday Night Football markets (as TNF begins a three-week run of airing nationally only on NFL Network). My only observation that seems probable to hold up in finals is surprisingly solid retention for Life in Pieces at 9:30...
  • CBS' return didn't cause much of a stir on the other broadcasters, in part because they were so beaten down last time out. In fact, NBC was actually on the rebound from its truly rotten week-ago results, including a surprising surge for Superstore (1.3) in its first head-to-head with a TBBT original. The Good Place (1.1), Chicago Med (1.4) and The Blacklist (1.2) were also on the upswing. Med would actually tie its timeslot high with this number.
  • On Fox, Pitch (0.8) couldn't get anything going despite coming off of two days of World Series promotion (including a special encore on FS1 following the Game 1 postgame show). It led out of another 0.8 from Rosewood.
  • ABC's Grey's Anatomy (2.2) took a tenth away from Notorious (0.8), while How to Get Away with Murder (1.2) was even at 10/9c.
  • On the CW, Legends of Tomorrow (0.6) lost the tenth it got in a finals adjustment last week, while Supernatural stayed at 0.6.
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/26/16

FINALS UPDATE: The Goldbergs (1.8) and Speechless (1.7) and Modern Family (2.3) and Survivor (1.9) and Law and Order: SVU (1.5) adjusted up while Designated Survivor (1.2) and World Series (4.8) adjusted down.

Thanks to the World Series downtick (presumably due to the earlier material in the 7:00 hour), Game 2 ended up with almost exactly the same year-to-year trend as Game 1, which is still really good.

  • Despite the earlier start time, Game 2 of the World Series ran all the way through primetime on the East Coast, and early numbers (4.9) have it up even more sharply than Game 1, compared to the year-ago ratings. (Game 2 in 2015 had a 3.6 prelim and 3.9 final.)
  • It was another largely down night for the entertainment world, which had the double-whammy of coming back from a week off for a presidential debate last Wednesday. ABC had the softest night, and is in the particularly unenviable position of facing another preemption due to the CMA Awards next week. Designated Survivor (1.3) took a major step down at 10/9c, merely tying Chicago PD (1.3) for the hourly lead, and the comedies The Goldbergs (1.7), Speechless (1.6), Modern Family (2.2) and Black-ish (1.7) were all down as well (most of them by two tenths).
  • The only big four show to avoid any kind of downtick was NBC's Law and Order: SVU (1.4), while its surrounding programs PD (1.3) and Blindspot (1.1) both inched down. CBS had minor slippage across the board with Survivor (1.8), Criminal Minds (1.6) and Code Black (1.0).
  • The CW's Arrow (0.7) and Frequency (0.3) matched last week.

Best Case/Worst Case: The Great Indoors, Pure Genius, Mom, Life in Pieces

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/25/16

FINALS UPDATE: American Housewife (1.6) and World Series (5.6) adjusted up.

  • Fox happily took a break from its usual Tuesday lineup to air a very strong Game 1 of the World Series, which averaged a 5.4 prelim and may adjust up a bit more after finals. That was almost 20% above last year's Game 1 prelim, and it's gonna be the first time that Game 1 of a Series broke a 5 rating since 2009 (and just the third time since 2004). Due to weather concerns, tonight's Game 2 will be starting an hour earlier (and could conceivably be done by the start of the 10/9c hour on the East Coast).
  • Against this competition, there was some downward momentum on the other networks, but nothing too catastrophic. On ABC, comedy newbie American Housewife (1.5) took another dip in week three, this time only matching its The Middle (1.5) lead-in in the prelims. Fresh Off the Boat (1.2) also inched down, but The Real O'Neals (1.0) and Agents of SHIELD (0.8) tried to keep their hats in the ring with upticks from last week's finals. (But note that both shows had these numbers in the prelims last week and adjusted down.)
  • NBC's This Is Us (2.4) was still easily the star of the entertainment world. It had another two-tenth loss, but its The Voice (2.1) lead-in was down by even more. Chicago Fire (1.6) was even at 10/9c.
  • CBS was another network that held up best at 10/9c, with NCIS: New Orleans (1.3) on the uptick. But NCIS (1.7) and Bull (1.5) each lost a tenth.
  • Male-skewing The Flash (1.0) managed to hold up against the Series, but No Tomorrow could only muster up another shaky 0.3.

Cablemetrics: The Walking Dead, Talking Dead, Westworld, The Strain

These numbers are current through Monday, October 24.

  • Many like to reminisce about the days when a TV program could end its season on a cliffhanger and capture the national imagination for the entire summer. But it looks like that is still possible even in 2016, as The Walking Dead (8.36) exploded from a 2015-16 season that was mostly in the 6's and somehow found the show's second-best raw number ever. Whatever historical adjustment you use for this show, it's pretty clearly a more impressive performance than the raw series high, an 8.65 for the fall premiere two years ago. It's also probably gonna be over six times the big four league average for this season, which is getting into (or even beyond) Friends finale territory.

SpotVault - The Walking Dead (AMC) - Fall 2016 Ratings

SpotVault - Man with a Plan (CBS) - 2016-17 Ratings

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/24/16

FINALS UPDATE: Kevin Can Wait (1.7) adjusted up while Timeless (1.3) and Supergirl (0.8) and Jane the Virgin (0.4) adjusted down.

  • CBS moved Kevin Can Wait (1.6) to the 8:00 lead-off slot and launched newbie Man with a Plan (1.6) at 8:30. Kevin shed a half-point in its 8/7c debut, which is probably not too far away from what should be expected when a Big Bang lead-in is lost. It was week three for 2 Broke Girls (1.4), which lost a tenth for the second straight week, and week two for The Odd Couple (1.1), which at least didn't get any worse than last week's premiere, in the 9:00 hour.
  • In the 10/9c drama wars, Timeless (1.4) remained on top but gave up at least a tenth from last week. Conviction (0.8) preliminarily had a minor rebound and will hope to hold it in finals this time. And Scorpion (1.2) shed a tenth.
  • Fox inched down with Gotham (1.1) and Lucifer (1.0), while the CW's Supergirl (0.9) and Jane the Virgin (0.6) are pending preemptions for Monday Night Football.

Renewology Swings of the Week: Timeless, MacGyver, Son of Zorn, Quantico and more!

This is the first edition of Renewology's "Swings of the Week," looking at which shows this week had the biggest change in R%. How much did this week's ratings matter? This is our attempt at quantifying it. I will try to put this out every Tuesday going forward, though a lot of times I may not do much in the way of accompanying analysis.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/23/16

FINALS UPDATE: Sunday Night Football (6.0) adjusted up while NFL Overrun (5.6) and 60 Minutes (3.0) and Football Night in America (2.7) and The Simpsons (R) (0.5) and Bob's Burgers (1.4) and The Simpsons (1.5) adjusted down.

  • Against the return of gigahit The Walking Dead on AMC, things got even rougher for the ABC drama lineup. In direct competition with most of the TWD episode, Secrets and Lies (0.7) took the biggest hit, but Once Upon a Time (1.0) and Quantico (0.7) also inched down to new lows.
  • On Fox, some local overruns may affect the early part of their evening with a The Simpsons repeat (1.6), Bob's Burgers (1.6) and maybe the Simpsons (1.6) original. Beyond that, viewers quickly fled for Son of Zorn (1.0), Family Guy (1.2) and The Last Man on Earth (0.9). In the 9/8c hour, opposite the Dead premiere, Family Guy was down a tenth from its last airing without a national overrun, while Last Man tied its premiere Sunday rating.
  • CBS used the national overrun to boost 60 Minutes (3.6/2.7) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.7), leading into Madam Secretary (1.1) and Elementary (0.8 in the 10:30 half-hour). All these shows are subject to minor change since they started five minutes after their listed timeslots for the East/Central.
  • On a baseball-free night with a better matchup, Sunday Night Football averaged a low-5's prelim, up a good bit from last week. (Could this night have been even worse for broadcast if FS1 had been airing a baseball Game 7...?)

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