Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
- The Voice went into its usual clip show mode on the third Tuesday, averaging a below-average 2.2 for the two hours, but a reduced Voice didn't seem to help out much of the competition. ABC's The Muppets (1.6) took another 20% dive in week three, now just barely above half of its premiere rating from just two weeks ago. For ABC, the bigger winners in the early weeks are the veteran shows leading out of Muppets; Fresh Off the Boat ticked up to 1.8, actually building on Muppets, while Agents of SHIELD (1.6) held close to the premiere rating.
- Fox's newbies also had a rough night as Grandfathered (1.1) and The Grinder (1.0) each shed over 25% of last week's 1.5 openers, while Scream Queens (1.1) joined The Muppets in utterly failing to stop the bleeding in week three.
- The most promising newbie on Tuesday is still Limitless (1.7) on CBS, even after a two-tenth hit in week three. It once again had easy competition from a Quantico encore (0.8) and as NBC's Best Time Ever (1.3) took a massive hit leading out of a depressed Voice. (This doesn't bode well for BTE's move to 8/7c, which presumably will finally have to come next Tuesday.) CBS' NCIS (2.1) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.7) will likely be even week-to-week after finals.
- And the CW opened its fall season on this night. The Flash (1.4) is still big, but doesn't seem to have gotten any bigger over the hiatus; this premiere would be a slightly below average season one rating, and a tenth shy of the finale. But it seems possible it could adjust up to the finale rating and maybe iZombie (0.7) down to its usual 0.6, since Flash ran into the 9:00 hour.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
- FINALS UPDATE: Life in Pieces (1.9) avoided adjusting down for once, but thanks to another two-tenth bump from The Big Bang Theory (3.9) it was still south of 50% retention. The Voice (3.3) also adjusted up, taking a tenth away from Blindspot (2.4), while Castle (1.2) went down as well. (Dancing with the Stars did not adjust down, at least in rounded numbers, and was thus up week-to-week.)
- NBC's Blindspot (2.5) had another positive outing in week three, down just a tenth from last week in the prelims, though with a 2.7 -> 2.2 breakdown it could be a threat to adjust down in finals. It had a little less help from The Voice (3.2), which was down a tenth or two this week (staying very close to the usual -15% y2y pace on Monday).
- On CBS, The Big Bang Theory (3.7) inched down from last week's final and Life in Pieces (1.9) matched last week's final. This means that after adjustments LiP's lead-in retention could very well dip below 50%. Scorpion (1.8) had a minor rebound at 9/8c, and NCIS: Los Angeles made it three straight 1.2's.
- On Fox, Minority Report (0.7) stepped down two more tenths and is clearly into short-term danger territory, while Gotham (1.5) shed a tenth this time as well.
- And ABC had minor growth from Dancing with the Stars (1.7) and Castle (1.3) in the prelims but is pending Monday Night Football preemptions as usual.
Rating: 1.7 (two hours)
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: The Muppets / Fresh Off the Boat / Dancing with the Stars (2.9/1.9/1.5), NCIS / NCIS: New Orleans (2.5/1.7), The Voice (3.5), The Flash (R) (0.4/0.4)
- FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (2.7) and Blood and Oil (1.3) adjusted up, while 60 Minutes (1.4) and Madam Secretary (1.4) inched down. Sunday Night Football ended up with an 8.7.
- On cable, the finale of Fear the Walking Dead (3.37) was actually down 0.07 points from last week (though it stayed 0.06 ahead of week four to avoid a new series low).
- Premium cable saw Showtime's Homeland (0.56) top HBO's The Leftovers (0.33). Homeland was exactly even with last year's season opener, but The Leftovers had a rough start. This was just half of last season's low point and well under half of last season's 0.77 average. (Worth noting it aired after True Blood in season one.)
- And season two of The Affair (0.18) led out of Homeland and beat last season's 0.14 premiere (but was behind the last few weeks of last season).
- The prospects brightened on ABC's second Sunday, as both Once Upon a Time (1.8) and, more significantly, Quantico (1.9) each held onto their premiere ratings. That meant Quantico had to create even more separation from its Blood and Oil (1.2) lead-in, as that other new ABC drama was down two tenths in week two. It's looking clearer now that ABC has something with Quantico; now, the question is what, if anything, they're gonna do about this really tough timeslot situation.
- Last week's CSI finale created a quirky situation in which both of the late-afternoon NFL networks didn't premiere their regular lineups with the national NFL lead-in. But CBS still had a reasonable enough return from Madam Secretary (1.5), which was above all of its spring run in the prelims (though we'll see if it goes down a notch due to regional NFL overruns). The Good Wife (1.2) matched last spring's finale, which was also good enough to beat most of the rotten spring ratings, while CSI: Cyber (1.0) moved over from Wednesday and was well into new low territory on opening night.
- Meanwhile, the NFL lead-in was back over to Fox, and the lead-in juice as usual was huge early and had less power over time. A week after they all had nearly the same rating, this time The Simpsons (2.6) was up over a point, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.9) was up significantly, Family Guy (1.7) was up a little, and The Last Man on Earth (1.5) was up barely.
- Football and cable (Fear the Walking Dead/The Leftovers/Homeland/The Affair) updates to come!
Monday, October 5, 2015
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: NCIS (2.5), The Voice (3.5), Scream Queens (1.7), The Flash (R) (0.4)
These numbers are current through Thursday, October 1.
- Episode five marked the first week-to-week growth for Fear the Walking Dead, bouncing back by a tenth to a 3.44 with last night's finale rating still to come.