Saturday, October 31, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/30/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Last Man Standing (1.3) adjusted up. Game 3 of the World Series also went up a tenth to inch past last year's Game 3.
  • NBC's Grimm opened its fifth season with a 1.1, down three tenths from last year's 1.4 opener. But it was still NBC's runaway bright spot, sandwiched between the comedy hour of Undateable (0.7) / Truth Be Told (0.7, back up to the premiere rating) and the still struggling Dateline (0.8) at 10/9c.
  • At least on this night, part of Dateline's woes can be attributed to a rather huge performance from 20/20 (1.7) at 10/9c, featuring an interview with Leah Remini on the Church of Scientology. Earlier in the ABC night, Last Man Standing (1.2) and Dr. Ken (1.2) hung in there again, while Shark Tank (1.4) preliminarily inched back down.
  • Fox had its final big baseball Friday as Game 3 of the World Series averaged a preliminary 3.1 from 8:00 to 11:00. If it adjusts up at all, it will beat last year's Game 3 (3.1 on 10/24/14).
  • CBS was on the high end of normal with The Amazing Race (1.2) and Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) but on the low end with Blue Bloods (1.1). 
  • And the CW sat out Reign to show another Crazy Ex-Girlfriend repeat (0.2) leading into America's Next Top Model (0.2), which needs another upward adjustment to avoid a new season low.

Friday, October 30, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/29/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Vampire Diaries (0.6) adjusted up. Thursday Night Football (6.0) was actually up just a tenth from last week after accounting for time zones and the NFL Network audience.
  • ABC broke up TGIT for a night to put its annual second airing of It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown (1.7) at 8/7c in place of Grey's Anatomy. While it was a good night for the Peanuts special itself (even with last year's airing on the same evening), it did no favors to the rest of TGIT, as Scandal (2.3) dropped by two tenths and How to Get Away with Murder (1.8) by a pretty disappointing three tenths to a new low.
  • Fox had its own irregularity as it opened November sweeps with a crossover between Bones (1.3) and Sleepy Hollow (1.1). As usual, this was much more helpful to the second show as Hollow spiked by three tenths to a new season high, but Bones had a rather good night in its own right. (The arrival of The Big Bang Theory, which seemingly destroyed this show last year, looms next week.)
  • NBC was up a tenth for The Blacklist (1.5) but saw some more erosion for Heroes Reborn (1.0) and The Player (0.7). CW Thursday stayed pretty low with The Vampire Diaries (0.5) and The Originals (0.4).
  • Meanwhile, this was the last week of the regular run for Thursday Night Football on CBS, though it will return to CBS for a one-off in early December. With Tom Brady and the Patriots in this game, it looks like it was up at least 10% from last week in the early prelims.

Best Case/Worst Case: Grimm


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

War of 18-49 Update, So You Think You Can Dance (Summer 2015)


Let's take a look at the summer 2015 season (the twelfth overall) of So You Think You Can Dance on Fox.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/28/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Middle (2.0) and The Goldbergs (2.2) went up to put all the ABC comedy originals on the upside vs. last week. Survivor (2.1) was also up a tick. The Mysteries of Laura (1.0), Arrow (0.9) and Supernatural (0.8) all went down 0.1, but that's still a good number for SPN which bounced all the way back to its week two rating.
    • The World Series ended up with 13.72 million viewers and a 3.9 A18-49, which was down 15% from Tuesday's rating. But this was still 15% ahead of last year's Game 2 and the best Game 2 since 2011.
    • And the Republican debate averaged 14 million viewers and a 2.64 A18-49 on CNBC. Certainly this is big enough to be a factor in the landscape but it had barely half the 18-49 audience of the enormous CNN Republican debate in mid-September (4.94). Even the CNN Democratic debate two weeks ago (3.59) was considerably bigger.
  • On a night with no original Modern Family, the other ABC comedies held up fine with Halloween originals as The Middle (1.9) and The Goldbergs (2.1) were even and Black-ish (1.9) was actually up a tenth with no Empire competition but a repeat ModFam lead-in (albeit a particularly strong one at 1.9). Nashville (1.1) rounded out the steady ABC evening.
  • NBC had relatively normal results from The Mysteries of Laura (1.1) and a special two-hour edition of Chicago PD (1.4/1.5), though PD's 1.4 in the 9:00 hour was lower than anything Law and Order: SVU has done there this season even with Empire competition. CBS also saw no real benefit on an Empire-free night as Criminal Minds (1.6) stayed at last week's low in between slightly down Survivor (2.0) and Code Black (1.1).
  • The CW, which has usually had a rough time against the World Series historically, had a surge in the prelims with Arrow (1.0) and Supernatural (0.9). We'll see if there were NBA preemptions in the mix here.
  • Fox had a relatively lopsided Game 2 of the World Series and seems to be down from Game 1, at least in the early prelims. There was also a Republican presidential debate on CNBC in the mix, whose early household numbers suggest a huge number (certainly a record-setter for that channel) but not quite in the league of the Fox News/CNN debates. More after finals!

First Two Weeks, Truth Be Told


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 0.7
Lead-in: Undateable (0.9)
Competition: Dr. Ken (1.3), The Amazing Race (1.1), American League Championship Series (1.7), Reign (0.3)


War of 18-49 Update, Rookie Blue (Summer 2015)


Let's take a look at the summer 2015 season (the sixth and final overall) of Rookie Blue on ABC.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/27/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Fresh Off the Boat (1.5), NCIS (2.1), The Voice (2.6) and The Flash (1.4) all adjusted up. The World Series (4.6) did not (and was actually down in viewership) after accounting for time zones and the two hours after primetime, but it was still the best Game 1 since 2010.
  • ABC's late October drama debut was an afterthought, as Wicked City (0.9) couldn't even crack a 1.0 on premiere night and thus went well below the premieres of even the biggest new drama losers this fall. Clearly ABC's search for an answer on Tuesday at 10/9c will have to continue. ABC had at least a minor consolation as fast-tanking The Muppets (1.4) finally had a small rebound after a week off, though the momentum did not continue to Fresh Off the Boat (1.4) and Agents of SHIELD (1.4).
  • Fox got a break from its usual Tuesday woes with what looks like a really strong Game 1 of the World Series, averaging a preliminary 15.26 million viewers and 4.6 demo from 8:00 to 11:00 and continuing wayyy past primetime. Even if this doesn't adjust up (which it probably will), it would be about a third above last year's Game 1. This will be the best Game 1 viewership/demo since at least the 4.7 in 2010 and probably since the 6.3 in 2009.
  • Perhaps the biggest winner against the Series was NBC's Chicago Fire (1.9), which finally showed some signs of life after a couple underwhelming weeks to start the season. It spiked by two or three tenths even as Best Time Ever (1.1) and The Voice (2.5) faded a bit.
  • CBS was down a touch with NCIS (2.0) but otherwise steady with NCIS: New Orleans (1.6) and Limitless (1.4). And CW's The Flash (1.3) gave up a tenth as iZombie (0.6) gained one. (But one or both could be even after finals.)

ABC Weekly Plus Power Rankings for 2015-16



CBS Weekly Plus Power Rankings for 2015-16



NBC Weekly Plus Power Rankings for 2015-16



Fox Weekly Plus Power Rankings for 2015-16



CW Weekly Plus Power Rankings for 2015-16



War of 18-49 Update, Last Comic Standing (Summer 2015)


Let's take a look at the summer 2015 season (the ninth overall) of Last Comic Standing on NBC.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/26/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (4.4) adjusted up two tenths, nearly tying last year's Monday finale (4.6 on 10/20/14) and ahead of the same week last year (a 4.1 for its Thursday premiere). Supergirl (3.1), Dancing with the Stars (1.8) and Blindspot (2.1) all inched down.
  • CBS had a pretty super start to the Monday Supergirl era, as the show premiered with nearly 13 million viewers and a 3.2 demo rating and growing from 3.1 at 8:30 to a 3.2 at 9:00. It had a great lead-in as The Big Bang Theory (4.2) finished off a very healthy second half of its Monday run. This is the season's best premiere to date in A18-49, edging Blindspot's 3.1 on premiere Monday. Of course, next week with no TBBT will be a big change for Supergirl, but the half-hour breakdown is undeniably an encouraging sign.
  • Supergirl helped Scorpion (1.9) a little bit too, as its 90-minute average from 9:30 to 11:00 was the best rating since the premiere.
  • Elsewhere, it looks like co-existence may be possible for the dueling DC shows as Gotham (1.5) was actually on the rebound even on Supergirl premiere night. But it is worth noting that it didn't start facing Supergirl till the 8:30 half-hour, and it dropped from 1.6 to 1.4 at the half. So the first full head-to-head will come next week, but it's not like an above-average TBBT is easy either.
  • NBC's The Voice (3.1) and Blindspot (2.2) preliminarily had minor rebounds from last week, but those are pending a Baltimore Monday Night Football preemption. ABC's Dancing with the Stars (1.9) was even in the prelims while Castle went into repeat mode with a 0.9.
  • And after hanging for dear life to their rounded 0.3/0.4 last week, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.2) and Jane the Virgin (0.3) couldn't do it in week three.

Best Case/Worst Case: Wicked City


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

War of 18-49 Update, Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (Summer 2015)


Let's take a look at the summer 2015 season (the fourth overall) of Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? on Fox.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case: Supergirl


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/25/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Fox looked a bit better after finals as The Simpsons (2.8) and The Last Man on Earth (1.5) adjusted up, putting the entire comedy lineup at season high levels (and everything but Last Man was a new season high) even though The OT (4.2) was down double digits from three weeks ago. Sunday Night Football finished with a 7.6, down 0.6 from last week.
    • It was a good night on cable as The Walking Dead (6.69) and Homeland (0.56) each came roaring back from big drops last week. TWD was just three tenths below the year-ago evening (when it was also facing the World Series), while Homeland was actually up year-to-year and tied the premiere. Homeland's sophomore lead-out The Affair (0.23) tied a series high.
  • Quantico (1.5) ticked down in week five, which was the most exciting thing to happen on another steady ABC Sunday. Once Upon a Time (1.6) and recently trimmed Blood and Oil (0.9) were even again and America's Funniest Home Videos (1.1) thankfully bounced back to normal after last week's stinker.
  • Fox took back the national NFL overrun and got a big boost for The Simpsons (2.7), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.0), Family Guy (1.8) and The Last Man on Earth (1.4), all of which were pretty close to what they did with the last overrun three weeks ago. It's not great for Simpsons, whose Treehouse of Horror episodes often overachieve more than this, but Nine-Nine and Family Guy were actually ahead of three weeks ago.
  • And CBS had another OK 8/7c result from Madam Secretary (1.3), but alongside The Good Wife (1.0) and CSI: Cyber (0.8) this lineup was still down from three weeks ago when they last started on time.
  • More football/cable after finals, though Sunday Night Football looks down a bit from last week in the prelims.

Cablemetrics: American Horror Story, Fargo, Homeland, Being Mary Jane


These numbers are current through Thursday, October 22.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • There weren't a lot of big premieres this week, but several of the top shows early in their fall seasons took larger-than-usual drops. Mentioned last week that American Horror Story (1.67) had a big drop in week two, but it was about in line with what the series usually does. Going down another 28% in week three? Not so much. So after the first two points were -4% and -5% year-to-year, this one was -24%. It could be in very low-1's territory sooner rather than later.

Saturday, October 24, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/23/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Amazing Race (1.2) went up, as did America's Next Top Model (0.3) to avoid a new season low.
  • NBC's Friday comedy experiment took a turn for the worse as Undateable (0.7) plunged two tenths to a new low and Truth Be Told (0.6) was down a tenth in week two.
  • On ABC, Last Man Standing (1.2) and Dr. Ken (1.2) stayed solid but were each down a tenth, while Shark Tank (1.5) rebounded a bit. 20/20 (1.2) did fairly well again.
  • After the crime dramas converged last week, CBS saw Blue Bloods (1.2) rise a tenth to pull back ahead of Hawaii Five-0 (1.0), down a tenth. The Amazing Race (1.1) had another respectable night.
  • And the CW had a third straight downtick night as Reign fell to its first 0.2 in week three, and America's Next Top Model (0.2) dropped for the second straight episode, hitting 0.2 for the first time since a random August 2013 airing.

Friday, October 23, 2015

First Two Weeks, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 0.274
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: Dancing with the Stars (1.7), The Big Bang Theory / Life in Pieces (3.9/1.8), The Voice (3.3), Gotham (1.5)


Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/22/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: How to Get Away with Murder (2.1) adjusted up to put all of TGIT up a tenth from last week. Thursday Night Football had a 5.9 combined CBS/NFLN final, up a point from last week and about in line with the season-to-date average.
  • Like most of this week, Thursday brought a lot of steadiness and a lot of slight upticks. This included TGIT's Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and Scandal (2.5) each rising by a tenth from last week's finals to mark a second straight increase for Grey's. But How to Get Away with Murder (2.0) couldn't join in on the upward momentum, staying at last week's low.
  • Fox had a minor rebound from Bones (1.2) but none from Sleepy Hollow (0.8) as the shows await next week's crossover. And NBC's Heroes Reborn (1.1) and The Blacklist (1.4) were even as The Player (0.8) edged up from last week's ugliness.
  • The only network on the decline from last week was the CW, as The Vampire Diaries (0.5) and The Originals (0.4) each inched down. 
  • CBS had Thursday Night Football again, this time with no baseball competition. Its prelim 3.7 was slightly up from last week, but more after finals!

War of 18-49 Update, Falling Skies (Summer 2015)


Let's take a look at the summer 2015 season (the fifth and final overall) of Falling Skies on TNT.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/21/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Rosewood (1.6) adjusted up.
  •  It was a mostly steady broadcast night the week before the World Series, a debate and the CMA Awards roll in across the next two Wednesdays. Probably the most encouraging evening was had by Fox, which finally saw the bleeding end for Rosewood (1.5) and Empire (4.8) as they head to a brief hiatus; in fact, they were up a tenth week-to-week, and it could be even more after finals.
  • Probably the least encouraging night was had by the CW, particularly at 9/8c as Supernatural (0.6) finally came back to earth after two very good weeks to start the season. Arrow (0.9) inched down again as well, though it had a prelim 0.9 last week too and adjusted up.
  • On CBS, the Criminal Minds (1.6) struggles continued as that show eyes another new low, but Code Black (1.2) was even again and Survivor (2.1) may be even after finals.
  • ABC saw The Middle (1.9) give up a tenth but The Goldbergs (2.1) get one back, while Modern Family (2.7), Black-ish (1.8) and Nashville (1.1) were all steady. 
  • And NBC also had one show up (The Mysteries of Laura (1.1)) and one down (Chicago PD (1.4)) while Law and Order: SVU (1.5) was even. (And thus just a tenth behind Criminal Minds...)

War of 18-49 Update, Big Brother (Summer 2015)


Let's take a look at the summer 2015 season (the seventeenth overall) of Big Brother on CBS.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/20/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Limitless (1.4) got a much-welcome upward adjustment to put it even with last week, and usual Tuesday leaders The Voice (2.7) and NCIS (2.2) were also up. Chicago Fire (1.6) lost a tick.
  • Broadcast TV didn't exactly come roaring back after last week's debacle against the CNN debate, but most series should at least go even if not slightly up after finals. ABC had the most irregular lineup as it sat out The Muppets and Fresh Off the Boat in favor of holiday specials It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown (2.0) and Toy Story of TERROR! (1.6), both of which were down two tenths vs. their Wednesday telecasts last year. Agents of SHIELD (1.5) was the network's only original, up a tick from last week.
  • On CBS, Limitless (1.3) has hit a bit of a funk, dropping another tenth in its second try against Chicago Fire. Earlier in the night, NCIS (2.1) was even with last week's final and may adjust up, while NCIS: New Orleans (1.6) inched up.
  • NBC saw Chicago Fire (1.7) drop a tenth in week two but was even (maybe better after finals) with Best Time Ever (1.2) and The Voice (2.6). Fox's Grandfathered (1.0), The Grinder (0.9) and Scream Queens (1.0) all stayed even but low, while the CW stayed even but mixed with The Flash (1.4) and iZombie (0.5).

War of 18-49 Update, MasterChef (Summer 2015)


Let's take a look at the summer 2015 season (the sixth overall) of MasterChef on Fox.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/19/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.9) got its two-tenth bump, while everything else on CBS held, putting the entire lineup even or better week-to-week. The only other adjustments came on the CW, where Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.3) and Jane the Virgin (0.4) each dropped just 0.1 after the NYC preemption. That put them flat week-to-week rounded to the nearest tenth, but both shows were down double digits in total viewers (meaning they are likely down in un-rounded demo ratings).
  • On the last Monday before the Supergirl premiere, CBS had a relatively positive night as Life in Pieces (2.1), Scorpion (1.8) and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.3) were all on the upswing in the prelims. (And The Big Bang Theory (3.7) could get to even week-to-week if it can get a 0.2 bump in finals.) It would be a new season high for the struggling LA, perhaps benefiting from...
  • ...a sizable week five drop for Blindspot (2.1) on NBC. It likely suffered in part because The Voice (3.0) began its usual late October downswing.
  •  ABC was good news/bad news as Dancing with the Stars (1.9) had its best rating since the premiere but Castle (1.1) was stuck at last week's low. And Fox saw Gotham (1.3) and Minority Report (0.6) both down, not the result they were hoping for on the Monday before Supergirl enters the competitive mix.
  • The CW is pending a New York City preemption for Monday Night Football, meaning Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.4) and Jane the Virgin (0.5) would be happy to drop just a tenth in the finals.

War of 18-49 Update, America's Got Talent (Summer 2015)


Let's take a look at the summer 2015 season (the tenth overall) of America's Got Talent on NBC.

Monday, October 19, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/18/15


WHAT MATTERS: 
  • FINALS UPDATE: 60 Minutes (2.4), Madam Secretary (1.2), The Good Wife (1.1) and The Simpsons (1.7) adjusted up. The Last Man on Earth (1.0) was down. Sunday Night Football (8.2) was below the season-to-date average but still a good number considering how much SNF tends to fall beyond the first month or so. The Walking Dead (6.17) was down 17% in week two.
  • It was another huge sports night in America, with Sunday Night Football seemingly surging by 20% or more from last week for a big Patriots/Colts matchup and the NLCS moving to Game 2 on TBS. But the broadcast scripted offerings stayed relatively resilient, including even week-to-week performances from Once Upon a Time (1.6), Blood and Oil (0.9) and Quantico (1.6) on ABC. (They're perhaps even a bit more impressive in light of a disturbing drop for week two of the Ribiero era on America's Funniest Home Videos (0.8).)
  • Fox always sees so much benefit from the Treehouse of Horror episodes of The Simpsons that they're doing two Halloween episodes this year, and the pre-Treehouse ep (1.6) ticked up from last week. Live action series Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.2) and The Last Man on Earth (1.1) each inched down, though; the latter may have been hurt because another reduced order for Family Guy dragged Bob's Burgers (1.0) into the 9/8c slot.
  • CBS had the NFL overrun, but it doesn't look like a very big one; 60 Minutes (2.3) will probably go well below its other post-overrun eps this season, while Madam Secretary (1.1) and The Good Wife (1.0) also struggled as they started nearly an hour later than usual. After finals, we'll see how CSI: Cyber did with a dreaded 10:58 start time. 
  • Sports/cable updates to come!

Cablemetrics: The Walking Dead, Fargo, American Horror Story


These numbers are current through Thursday, October 15.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Hard to be too critical of these numbers, but it was the first The Walking Dead season premiere to not set a new series high, averaging 14.63 million viewers and a 7.43 A18-49 rating. Both of these figures were about 15% below last year's premiere. (But of course, they were about 50% ahead of Empire, which is about 100% ahead of any other drama currently on air, so it's all relative...)

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/16/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Shark Tank (1.4) and Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) adjusted up. The ALCS game had a 1.7 final rating.
  • NBC continued its slow roll-out of Friday scripted programming with the premiere of 8:30 comedy Truth Be Told at 2.6 million viewers and a lowly 0.7 demo rating. It's possible it could've been even worse, but the show probably got a bit of an assist as Undateable (0.9) ticked up from its rough premiere last week. But it's still abundantly clear that TBT is going nowhere with this kind of start. Dateline (0.9) continued to struggle with the comedy lead-ins.
  • For ABC, it's still very much a good news/bad news night, as Last Man Standing (1.3) and Dr. Ken (1.3) were rock-solid once again, and even 20/20 (1.2) was above average on this night, but the air continues to come out of centerpiece Shark Tank (1.3) at a rather alarming rate. This may be a show that's heavily affected by the baseball playoffs, but it's looking more and more unlikely that it can recover to its former self.
  • The CBS dramas Hawaii Five-0 (1.0) and Blue Bloods (1.1) also went down a bit in week four, while The Amazing Race (1.1) was even. 
  • On the CW, Reign held to 0.3 for another week. And Crazy Ex-Girlfriend actually matched the Monday premiere's 0.3 with a pilot encore at 9/8c; more than anything, this probably just displays the quirks that are possible with numbers this low.
  • And after a season of phoning it in on Friday, Fox finally got in the competitive mix with Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, which averaged roughly a 1.6 demo in the prelims.

Friday, October 16, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/15/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.3) and Scandal (2.4) each adjusted up, putting Grey's ahead of last week's number. Thursday Night Football just barely had another new season low at 4.9, down a tenth from last week. TBS baseball averaged a 2.11.
  • There were many more drops on the fourth Thursday of the season. ABC's TGIT is once again seeing Grey's Anatomy (2.2) emerge as the biggest winner, as it was even at 8/7c as Scandal (2.3) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.0) dropped multiple tenths again in the last two hours.
  • On NBC, Heroes Reborn (1.1) and The Blacklist (1.4) each shed a tenth, and The Player (0.7) got really ugly by dropping two.
  • And Fox, which had the best holding lineup last week, dropped sizably this time as Bones (1.1) and Sleepy Hollow (0.8) were each down two tenths.
  • The CW was the most resilient this week as The Vampire Diaries (0.6) matched the premiere and The Originals (0.5) inched up in week two.
  • CBS had what looks like another relatively weak Thursday Night Football game, but TBS likely made up for it with a big winner-take-all baseball game between the Mets and Dodgers. More after finals!

Best Case/Worst Case: Truth Be Told


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

ABC Weekly True Power Rankings for 2015-16



CBS Weekly True Power Rankings for 2015-16



NBC Weekly True Power Rankings for 2015-16



Fox Weekly True Power Rankings for 2015-16



CW Weekly True Power Rankings for 2015-16



Inside the 2015-16 True Power Rankings


The True Power Rankings line up all the network's shows based on their most recent (last one-third of episodes aired) averages in the timeslot-adjusted metric True. Check back every week for updates!

This year, three of the most important metrics have been colorized to help visualize the true nature of a show's ratings. Here are the details on what all the colors and numbers mean.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/14/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Middle (2.0), Modern Family (2.7), Survivor (2.2), Empire (4.7) and Arrow (1.0) were up. Nashville (1.1) was down.
  • Most of the big four seems to have pretty much settled in on Wednesday, but Fox was a notable exception as Rosewood (1.4) took another big hit at 8/7c (rising from 1.2 to 1.6 at the half). Empire (4.6) also hasn't yet found its floor, though this was a more modest percent decline.
  • ABC saw comedies The Middle (1.9), The Goldbergs (2.0), Modern Family (2.6) and Black-ish (1.8) uniformly lose a tenth, though some of those may be recouped after finals. Nashville (1.2) had a bit of a rebound at 10/9c, even if it adjusts down to 1.1.
  • On CBS, Survivor (2.1) bounced back somewhat after last week's disturbing drop, while Criminal Minds (1.7) and Code Black (1.2) were even. NBC was also steady in the last two hours with Law and Order: SVU (1.5) and Chicago PD (1.5), but The Mysteries of Laura (1.0) dropped another notch.
  • The CW's Arrow (0.9) and Supernatural (0.8) had post-premiere drops but still looked strong. Worth noting again that Supernatural was never this high in its post-Arrow run last spring, and Arrow was above the year-ago evening for the second straight week.

First Two Weeks, Dr. Ken


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.5
Lead-in: Last Man Standing (1.2)
Competition: The Amazing Race (1.2), The Player (R) (0.6), The Grinder (R) (0.6), Masters of Illusion (0.3)


SpotVault - Fargo (FX) - 2015-16 Ratings





Fargo
Mondays, 10/9c, FX







SpotVault - American Horror Story (FX) - Fall 2015 Ratings





American Horror Story
Wednesdays, 10/9c, FX







SpotVault - Homeland (Showtime) - Fall 2015 Ratings





Homeland
Sundays, 9/8c, SHO







SpotVault - The Leftovers (HBO) - 2015-16 Ratings





The Leftovers
Sundays, 9/8c, HBO







SpotVault - Haven (Syfy) - 2015-16 Ratings





Haven
Thursdays, 10/9c, Syfy







SpotVault - Chicago Fire (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Undateable (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings





Undateable
Fridays, 8/7c, NBC







SpotVault - America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Jane the Virgin (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Originals (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Reign (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings





Reign
Fridays, 8/7c, CW







SpotVault - The Vampire Diaries (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings



Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/13/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.1), The Voice (2.6) and The Flash (1.4) adjusted up, putting Flash even with last week. The meat of the CNN debate (from 9:00 to 10:49 ET) averaged 15.79 million viewers and a stout 3.59 demo rating, while TBS baseball was also very much on the map with a 1.97 for the primetime game.
  • On another big debate night on cable, the Tuesday broadcast offerings got another sweeping dose of rejection. The big broadcast news this week was NBC's schedule shuffle; while Best Time Ever (1.2) didn't totally collapse in its transition to 8/7c, it was a low lead-in for a disappointing 9/8c premiere of The Voice (2.5), which left a depressed audience leading into the premiere of Chicago Fire (1.8) at 10/9c. Chicago Fire broke a 2.0 every time it had a Voice lead-in last year, so this isn't much of a start, but most of those Voice lead-ins were also a lot bigger.
  • There was really nothing positive anywhere on the big four:
    • ABC had crazy drops at 8/7c once again from The Muppets (1.3) and this time from Fresh Off the Boat (1.4) as well, leaving Muppets well below half of its premiere rating from just three weeks ago. Agents of SHIELD (1.4) was down just two tenths at 9/8c.
    • CBS was down multiple tenths across the board as NCIS (2.0) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.5) each dropped by 0.2 and Limitless (1.4) was down a rough 0.3 in the face of its first original drama competition.
    • And everything on Fox also fell again: Grandfathered (1.0), The Grinder (0.9) and Scream Queens (1.0). 
  • Probably the least bad news on all of broadcast was The Flash (1.3), which was down just a tenth from last week's premiere, but the CW was not without its own carnage as iZombie (0.5) sprung a leak at 9/8c.

First Two Weeks, Code Black


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.5
Lead-in: Criminal Minds (2.0)
Competition: Nashville (1.1), Chicago PD (1.7)


Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/12/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory only went up 0.1 this week, tying last week's 3.9, while Life in Pieces (1.8) and Scorpion (1.7) were down for CBS. Removing ABC's preemptions took a tenth away from Castle (1.1), dropping it to a new low, while The Voice (3.3) picked up a tenth and Blindspot didn't drop.
  • The CW got off to a very slow start with its critically-beloved Monday lineup as Crazy Ex-Girlfriend could only muster up a 0.3 rating and not even a million viewers out of the gate. Sophomore Jane the Virgin (0.4) fared only a little better at 9/8c, merely tying its low point from season one. Early on, this is shaping up like a very top-heavy CW network with depth issues.
  • NBC had an encouraging fourth Monday as Blindspot (2.5) went a tenth above last week's finals (meaning it'll be steady even if it adjusts down). The Voice (3.2) was down a tenth, but similarly could adjust up to steady.
  • CBS' The Big Bang Theory (3.8), Life in Pieces (1.9) and Scorpion (1.8) were all close to last week's finals, with NCIS: Los Angeles (1.1) ticking down to a new low. We'll see if TBBT can get another 0.2 adjustment to return to the fours, but it may be tough since the number includes the tail end of the local Monday Night Football preemption in San Diego.
  • The other two networks were exactly even across the board with Dancing with the Stars (1.7), Castle (1.2), Gotham (1.5) and Minority Report (0.7). ABC would be happy if those hold up since it was preempted for MNF in Pittsburgh.

Best Case/Worst Case: Chicago Fire


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

First Two Weeks, The Grinder


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.5
Lead-in: Grandfathered (1.5)
Competition: Fresh Off the Boat (1.7), NCIS (2.2), The Voice (3.7), iHeartRadio Music Festival (0.3)


First Two Weeks, Grandfathered


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.5
Lead-in: local programming
Competition: The Muppets (2.0), NCIS (2.2), The Voice (3.7), iHeartRadio Music Festival (0.3)


Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/11/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Hard to be too critical of these numbers, but it was the first The Walking Dead season premiere to not set a new series high, averaging 14.63 million viewers and a 7.43 A18-49 rating. Both of these figures were about 15% below last year's premiere. (But of course, they were about 50% ahead of Empire, which is about 100% ahead of any other drama currently on air, so it's all relative...)
    • On broadcast, Madam Secretary (1.5), The Last Man on Earth (1.2) and Blood and Oil (0.9) all adjusted up, while CSI: Cyber (0.8) and Bob's Burgers (0.9) went down. TWD beat Sunday Night Football this week, as SNF ended up with a season low 6.9.
  • On a night dominated by AMC's 90-minute season premiere of The Walking Dead, ABC's drama lineup took multiple-tenth hits across the board. The drama bookends Once Upon a Time (1.6) and Quantico (1.6) were each down a little over 10% in week three. But those drops seemed quite reasonable in light of the utter obliteration of the show they sandwich, Blood and Oil (0.8) at 9/8c. After a good week two hold, the show dropped a half point in week three and has suddenly become a big problem for the ABC sked, especially since it's leading into a drama that looks legit.
    • Before the drama lineup was Alfonso Ribiero's debut on America's Funniest Home Videos (1.1). The host change didn't generate much heat but it was still down just a tenth from last year's premiere.
  • The Fox live-action comedies Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.3) and The Last Man on Earth (1.1) each shed multiple tenths from their non-overrun premieres two weeks ago, but animated anchors The Simpsons (1.5) and Family Guy (1.4) were a bit steadier. Overall, the 9/8c hour which directly faced TWD fared a tick worse on average.
  • And CBS had the overrun, which makes them more subject to finals adjustments, but it looks like the NFL was only able to keep Madam Secretary (1.6/1.3), The Good Wife (1.2/1.1) and CSI: Cyber (0.9 at 10:30) close to even with last week's premieres.
  • Football/cable to come!

Monday, October 12, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case: Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, Jane the Virgin


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Cablemetrics: American Horror Story, Homeland, The Leftovers, The Affair


These numbers are current through Thursday, October 8.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • American Horror Story opened the Hotel edition with a 2.99, ever so slightly below the last two season premieres (3.11 last year and 3.05 in 2013). In a cable world where the median decline is still somewhere in the -20s, that's great news.

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/9/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Blue Bloods (1.3) adjusted up.
  • There's just one multi-camera comedy currently airing on the other six nights of the week combined, but this Friday somehow produced a head-to-head showdown between multi-cam hours. In that race, incumbent ABC was the clear and resounding winner, as Last Man Standing (1.3) ticked up for the second straight week since the premiere and Dr. Ken (1.3) had a pretty good week two hold.
    • On the other side, the season-long live experiment brought no real attention to the one-hour premiere of NBC's Undateable (0.8), which was quickly back down to its summer 2014 numbers on premiere night (and a disheartening 0.4 points behind even its lowest post-Voice rating from last spring).
  • The rest of the big four landscape saw the week three funk continue, with Shark Tank (1.5) and 20/20 (1.0) each down on ABC and The Amazing Race (1.1) and Blue Bloods (1.2) inching downward as well for CBS (though Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) was steady). NBC's Dateline (0.9) also had a below-average showing. 
  • On the CW, Reign opened its fall Friday run with 0.3, in line with what it did throughout last spring on Thursday, and America's Next Top Model ticked down to 0.3 for the first time this season.

Friday, October 9, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/8/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.2) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.2) adjusted up. Thursday Night Football (5.0) had a season low by a wide margin and was down nearly two points from last week. 
  • Thursday #3 brought another swath of week-to-week declines, even against what looks like a much weaker football game on CBS/NFL Network. The biggest drops this time came on NBC, where Heroes Reborn (1.2) was down four tenths, making it the latest newbie to experience a brutal week three decline. This takes it from potential real success to just barely an improvement on last year's The Biggest Loser. The Blacklist (1.5) took another of its usual significant post-premiere dips, and The Player (0.9) seems headed for fractional territory this time after adjusting up from 0.9 last week.
  • On ABC, Grey's Anatomy (2.1), Scandal (2.6) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.1) were each down two more tenths in the prelims. Once again, this was about in line with how these shows behaved last season, but they pretty much stabilized from here for the rest of the fall, so we'll see if it happens this time.
  • The steadiest of the big four nets was actually Fox, where Bones (1.3) lost just a tenth post-premiere and Sleepy Hollow clung for dear life to its 1.0. 
  • The CW had a soft start to its vampire consolidation on Thursday with The Vampire Diaries (0.6) only able to match its usual number from the spring and down a third from last season's premiere. The Originals (0.4) was even worse, only tying its series low from last season on Monday. (And it only hit 0.4 once on that night.) Matching last year's Reign premiere is not what the CW was hoping for here.

First Two Weeks, Quantico


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.9
Lead-in: Blood and Oil (1.4)
Competition: CSI (1.8), Sunday Night Football (8.1)


First Two Weeks, Blood & Oil


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.4
Lead-in: Once Upon a Time (1.8)
Competition: CSI (1.8), Sunday Night Football (8.1), Family Guy / The Last Man on Earth (1.5/1.4)


Best Case/Worst Case: Undateable, Reign, America's Funniest Home Videos


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight (and also on Sunday)!

SpotVault - The Flash (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - iZombie (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Arrow (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Supernatural (CW) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - CSI: Cyber (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Good Wife (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Madam Secretary (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - 60 Minutes (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Dr. Ken (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



Thursday, October 8, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/7/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Middle (2.0), Code Black (1.2), Law and Order: SVU (1.6), Rosewood (1.8) and Empire (5.1) all adjusted up a tenth. Nashville (1.0) went down. On FX, American Horror Story opened the Hotel edition with a 2.99, ever so slightly below the last two season premieres (3.11 last year and 3.05 in 2013).
  • The big four were marked by a lot of downward movement on the season's third Wednesday, including another few ticks shaved off of the Empire (5.0) machine at 9/8c. Its newbie lead-in Rosewood (1.7) was also down three more tenths from last week, with another particularly back-loaded half-hour breakdown (1.5 -> 1.9).
  • CBS had the most brutal night on a week-to-week basis, with Survivor (2.0) and Criminal Minds (1.7) both disturbingly dropping by at least three tenths from last week. Newbie Code Black (1.1) fell even harder with a rotten 27% week two drop, seemingly already out of the bubble conversation.
  • NBC was also down across the board, though more modestly on its first Wednesday without a season premiere; The Mysteries of Laura inched down to 1.1 and Law and Order: SVU (1.5) and Chicago PD (1.5) each lost two tenths, keeping the night within 10%ish on a year-to-year basis.
  • And ABC was a mixed bag, with some significant regressions from last week's overachieving The Middle (1.9) and The Goldbergs (2.1) but a minor rebound from last week's underachieving Black-ish (1.9). Middle and Goldbergs are still pretty healthy year-to-year, but not so much for Modern Family (2.7), which was also down three tenths. Nashville (1.1) was even but will hope to avoid downward adjustment with a 1.1 -> 1.0 breakdown.
  • Amid a bunch of big four drops, the CW had a fantastic start on Wednesday as the ever-strengthening Arrow (1.1) topped last season's premiere. Supernatural (0.9) had an even bigger surge to open season eleven, going well above its 0.6/0.7 level from the spring.

The 2015-16 Climate Center: Networks


The Climate Center helps you keep up with some of this site's bigger-picture numbers on a week-to-week basis. Though most of the A18-49+ posts aren't updated until the summer, this can keep you posted on how things are developing while the season is ongoing.

The Networks post looks at some of the metrics that best get at the networks' actual strength, most importantly breaking the networks' overall averages apart by category and mostly focusing on only the original non-sports series.

The 2015-16 Climate Center: League Averages


The Climate Center helps you keep up with some of this site's bigger-picture numbers on a week-to-week basis. Though most of the A18-49+ posts aren't updated until the summer, this can keep you posted on how things are developing while the season is ongoing.

The League Averages post covers the numbers that really make A18-49+ go: the 'league average,' which is an average of all ratings for original non-sports series on the big four networks during the traditional 35- or 36-week regular season. No sports, no reruns, no specials, no movies, no sustaining programming included!

Best Case/Worst Case: The Vampire Diaries, The Originals


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

First Two Weeks, The Player


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.2
Lead-in: Heroes Reborn (2.0)
Competition: How to Get Away with Murder (2.6), Thursday Night Football (6.0)


First Two Weeks, Heroes Reborn


We may throw this under the Heroes banner for historical purposes, but for this game's purposes, it's a new show!

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 2.0 (two hours)
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: Grey's Anatomy / Scandal (2.8/3.3), Thursday Night Football (2.2/6.0), Scream Queens (R) (0.7), The Flash (R) / Arrow (R) (0.4/0.3)


Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/6/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: There was some newbie mercy in the finals as The Muppets (1.7), Grandfathered (1.2) and Scream Queens (1.2) all inched up. So did NCIS (2.2), while Quantico (R) went down to 0.7. The CW was without adjustment, leaving The Flash (1.4) behind the finale and iZombie (0.7) ahead of the last six season one episodes.
  • The Voice went into its usual clip show mode on the third Tuesday, averaging a below-average 2.2 for the two hours, but a reduced Voice didn't seem to help out much of the competition. ABC's The Muppets (1.6) took another 20% dive in week three, now just barely above half of its premiere rating from just two weeks ago. For ABC, the bigger winners in the early weeks are the veteran shows leading out of Muppets; Fresh Off the Boat ticked up to 1.8, actually building on Muppets, while Agents of SHIELD (1.6) held close to the premiere rating.
  • Fox's newbies also had a rough night as Grandfathered (1.1) and The Grinder (1.0) each shed over 25% of last week's 1.5 openers, while Scream Queens (1.1) joined The Muppets in utterly failing to stop the bleeding in week three.
  • The most promising newbie on Tuesday is still Limitless (1.7) on CBS, even after a two-tenth hit in week three. It once again had easy competition from a Quantico encore (0.8) and as NBC's Best Time Ever (1.3) took a massive hit leading out of a depressed Voice. (This doesn't bode well for BTE's move to 8/7c, which presumably will finally have to come next Tuesday.) CBS' NCIS (2.1) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.7) will likely be even week-to-week after finals.
  • And the CW opened its fall season on this night. The Flash (1.4) is still big, but doesn't seem to have gotten any bigger over the hiatus; this premiere would be a slightly below average season one rating, and a tenth shy of the finale. But it seems possible it could adjust up to the finale rating and maybe iZombie (0.7) down to its usual 0.6, since Flash ran into the 9:00 hour.

Best Case/Worst Case: Arrow, Supernatural


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

First Two Weeks, Rosewood


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 2.4
Lead-in: Local programming (and a 6.7 Empire lead-out)
Competition: The Middle / The Goldbergs (2.1/2.4), Survivor (2.5), The Mysteries of Laura (1.2), America's Next Top Model (0.4)


Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/5/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Life in Pieces (1.9) avoided adjusting down for once, but thanks to another two-tenth bump from The Big Bang Theory (3.9) it was still south of 50% retention. The Voice (3.3) also adjusted up, taking a tenth away from Blindspot (2.4), while Castle (1.2) went down as well. (Dancing with the Stars did not adjust down, at least in rounded numbers, and was thus up week-to-week.)
  • NBC's Blindspot (2.5) had another positive outing in week three, down just a tenth from last week in the prelims, though with a 2.7 -> 2.2 breakdown it could be a threat to adjust down in finals. It had a little less help from The Voice (3.2), which was down a tenth or two this week (staying very close to the usual -15% y2y pace on Monday).
  • On CBS, The Big Bang Theory (3.7) inched down from last week's final and Life in Pieces (1.9) matched last week's final. This means that after adjustments LiP's lead-in retention could very well dip below 50%. Scorpion (1.8) had a minor rebound at 9/8c, and NCIS: Los Angeles made it three straight 1.2's.
  • On Fox, Minority Report (0.7) stepped down two more tenths and is clearly into short-term danger territory, while Gotham (1.5) shed a tenth this time as well.
  • And ABC had minor growth from Dancing with the Stars (1.7) and Castle (1.3) in the prelims but is pending Monday Night Football preemptions as usual.

Best Case/Worst Case: The Flash, iZombie


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

First Two Weeks, Scream Queens


Reminder: the games for The Muppets and Limitless are still open until 6am ET tomorrow!

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.7 (two hours)
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: The Muppets / Fresh Off the Boat / Dancing with the Stars (2.9/1.9/1.5), NCIS / NCIS: New Orleans (2.5/1.7), The Voice (3.5), The Flash (R) (0.4/0.4)


Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/4/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (2.7) and Blood and Oil (1.3) adjusted up, while 60 Minutes (1.4) and Madam Secretary (1.4) inched down. Sunday Night Football ended up with an 8.7.
    • On cable, the finale of Fear the Walking Dead (3.37) was actually down 0.07 points from last week (though it stayed 0.06 ahead of week four to avoid a new series low).
    • Premium cable saw Showtime's Homeland (0.56) top HBO's The Leftovers (0.33). Homeland was exactly even with last year's season opener, but The Leftovers had a rough start. This was just half of last season's low point and well under half of last season's 0.77 average. (Worth noting it aired after True Blood in season one.)
    • And season two of The Affair (0.18) led out of Homeland and beat last season's 0.14 premiere (but was behind the last few weeks of last season).
  • The prospects brightened on ABC's second Sunday, as both Once Upon a Time (1.8) and, more significantly, Quantico (1.9) each held onto their premiere ratings. That meant Quantico had to create even more separation from its Blood and Oil (1.2) lead-in, as that other new ABC drama was down two tenths in week two. It's looking clearer now that ABC has something with Quantico; now, the question is what, if anything, they're gonna do about this really tough timeslot situation.
  • Last week's CSI finale created a quirky situation in which both of the late-afternoon NFL networks didn't premiere their regular lineups with the national NFL lead-in. But CBS still had a reasonable enough return from Madam Secretary (1.5), which was above all of its spring run in the prelims (though we'll see if it goes down a notch due to regional NFL overruns). The Good Wife (1.2) matched last spring's finale, which was also good enough to beat most of the rotten spring ratings, while CSI: Cyber (1.0) moved over from Wednesday and was well into new low territory on opening night.
  • Meanwhile, the NFL lead-in was back over to Fox, and the lead-in juice as usual was huge early and had less power over time. A week after they all had nearly the same rating, this time The Simpsons (2.6) was up over a point, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.9) was up significantly, Family Guy (1.7) was up a little, and The Last Man on Earth (1.5) was up barely.
  • Football and cable (Fear the Walking Dead/The Leftovers/Homeland/The Affair) updates to come!

Monday, October 5, 2015

First Two Weeks, Limitless


Reminder: the games for Life in Pieces, Blindspot and Minority Report are still open until 6am ET tomorrow!

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.9
Lead-in: NCIS: New Orleans (1.7)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars (1.5), Best Time Ever (2.1)


First Two Weeks, The Muppets


Reminder: the games for Life in Pieces, Blindspot and Minority Report are still open until 6am ET tomorrow!

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 2.9
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: NCIS (2.5), The Voice (3.5), Scream Queens (1.7), The Flash (R) (0.4)


Cablemetrics: Fear the Walking Dead, Doctor Who, The Bastard Executioner, Z Nation


These numbers are current through Thursday, October 1.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Episode five marked the first week-to-week growth for Fear the Walking Dead, bouncing back by a tenth to a 3.44 with last night's finale rating still to come.

SpotVault - The Blacklist (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Sleepy Hollow (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Bones (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Code Black (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Criminal Minds (CBS) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Chicago PD (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - The Grinder (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Grandfathered (Fox) - 2015-16 Ratings



SpotVault - Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC) - 2015-16 Ratings



Sunday, October 4, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case: Madam Secretary, The Good Wife, CSI: Cyber


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Saturday, October 3, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/2/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Dr. Ken (1.5) and Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) adjusted up.
  • Dr. Ken had a promising start for ABC, opening with a 1.4 demo rating that was two tenths above its Last Man Standing lead-in (1.2, up a tenth from last week). This was a tenth above last year's Cristela premiere. Cristela held up decently post-premiere, but Ken has given itself room to drop a little more steeply and still be a legit timeslot improvement. Shark Tank (1.7) looked good as well, matching last week's premiere, though 20/20 (1.1) rounded out the night weakly.
  • It was status quo in week two on CBS, which was great news for Blue Bloods (1.3, still on the year-to-year upside), good news for The Amazing Race (1.2) and continued bad news for Hawaii Five-0 (1.0).
  • The CW moved America's Next Top Model to Friday with its usual 0.4, matching its Friday opener from last year. Reign joins the mix next week, replacing Masters of Illusion which wrapped with a one-hour finale (0.3/0.3).
  • A week before NBC gets in the scripted original game with Undateable, repeats of Grandfathered (0.8), The Grinder (0.6), The Player (0.6) and Scream Queens (0.4) populated the other two networks.

Friday, October 2, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/1/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Bones (1.4) went up, now at its outright best number since last December. The Player (1.0) also got a surprising bump, but nothing in TGIT adjusted despite a couple shows being close in the prelims. Thursday Night Football had a 6.9 final, up nearly a point from last week. This is CBS' biggest TNF rating other than the 2014 and 2015 premiere games.
  • NBC brought back The Blacklist (1.8) for season three with a considerably better lead-in than it enjoyed for most of its Thursday run in the winter/spring, and got a solid result. This is more like where Blacklist settled in the winter, and a healthy rally from its ugly spring run (which got as low as 1.2).
    • Meanwhile, lead-in Heroes Reborn (1.6) was down a typical-ish 20% in week two, still showing real potential to be a big timeslot improvement in its own right. But Blacklist's lead-out newbie The Player (0.9) proved no better a match with its new lead-in, shedding 25% to drop to the clear bottom of the early NBC totem pole.
  • Fox's opening Thursday was less promising overall, though one probably couldn't ask too much more of Bones (1.3), which rose above most of its spring deliveries to its highest rating since the spring premiere (albeit still three tenths behind last year's fall premiere). But the season three ugliness began from day one for Monday transplant Sleepy Hollow (1.0), already deep in new series low territory and a full half behind last year's premiere.
  • On ABC, Grey's Anatomy (2.3), Scandal (2.8) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.3) were all down double digits in week two, pretty similar drops to what went down in week two last year. Grey's and Scandal still aren't too far off of league average year-to-year declines (and Grey's might even get there if it adjusts up). Murder remains weakest on a year-to-year basis by a wide margin, well below last year's 3.2 in week two.
  • More on football after finals!

First Two Weeks, Minority Report


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.1
Lead-in: Gotham (1.6)
Competition: Dancing with the Stars (1.8), Scorpion (2.2), The Voice (3.5), Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R)/Significant Mother (0.3/0.1)


Best Case/Worst Case: Dr. Ken


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Thursday, October 1, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/30/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Goldbergs (2.4), Modern Family (3.0), Survivor (2.4), Rosewood (2.0) and Empire (5.5) all added a tenth, while Nashville (1.1) and Code Black (1.5) lost a tenth. This put Code Black's retention almost exactly on par with the year-ago Stalker premiere (and the raw number now down 25%).
  • The second Wednesday of the season was marked by something never seen before: a significant week-to-week drop from Empire (5.4), which shed over a point from last week's premiere. It seems likely now that we're finally past this beast's raw numbers peak, and it's now just a question of how it does at managing these declines.
    • At 8/7c, Rosewood (1.9) took a similar 20%ish drop, keeping it well ahead of pretty much everything else on the Fox schedule (except for maybe NFL-boosted comedies on Sunday). With a 1.7 -> 2.2 breakdown, the pre-tune effect is still clear.
  • CBS had a mixed night with a very healthy week two from Survivor (2.3), a very slow start from Criminal Minds (2.0), and the premiere of Code Black (1.6) at 10/9c. Code was 20% behind last year's Stalker premiere, but because Minds was down so sharply (26% behind last year's premiere), Code actually had better retention than Stalker. Not an awful start, but it needs to hold up well.
  • It looks like NBC may be encroaching on CBS' Wednesday crime drama territory for another year, as Chicago PD (1.7) had a good return at 10/9c (already #1 in the hour on Code Black's premiere night) and kept Law and Order: SVU (1.7) very close to last week. (Since SVU did so well at 10/9c last week, it's actually ahead of its 1.6/1.5 rating in the 9/8c hour a week ago.) The Mysteries of Laura (1.2) also held up in week two, putting NBC just 4% behind its year-ago evening.
  • ABC was a mixed bag as the 8/7c hour held up extremely well; The Middle (2.2) was actually up from the premiere and The Goldbergs (2.3) within a tenth. Modern Family (2.9) was down a reasonable three tenths at 9/8c, but Black-ish (1.8) completely collapsed from its strong return number last week. Nashville (1.2) preliminarily matched last week's premiere at 10/9c.

First Two Weeks, Blindspot


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 3.1
Lead-in: The Voice (3.5)
Competition: Castle (1.2), NCIS: Los Angeles (1.2)


Best Case/Worst Case: The Blacklist, Bones, Sleepy Hollow


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

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