Friday, October 30, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case: Grimm

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

1.15 A18-49+True2014-15 Slot
68 1.48 Fri 9:00, Fri 8:00
y2y:-18% -8%

Timeslot OccupantsGrimm Dateline
Avg Orig Avg
1.13 1.14 1.24 1.51 1.13 1.51

In a Nutshell: Grimm may be one of the biggest longshot success stories in this TV generation; it had to premiere on Friday out of very low-rated Chuck and against the freakin' last game of the World Series in fall 2011. Somehow, Grimm found a 2.1 out of that mess and became a remarkably reliable mid-1's player for pretty much the next three seasons. Only last year did it really begin any kind of downturn, including a 1.0ish run when moved to 8/7c in the spring. It's back at 9/8c this season, at least for now.

Best Case: Grimm is actually healthier than people think, because the move to 8/7c after DST was pretty brutal/stupid treatment. It was actually at pretty close to a league average decline before that happened. It stays near league average declines through this season and makes up a lot of ground in the spring when it stays at 9/8c and isn't hit as hard by DST. 1.13, down just 2%.

Worst Case: Truth Be Told is one of the worst lead-in situations Grimm has had, and that's really saying something. The show's usually built momentum with big Halloween premieres, but that was nothing special last year, and it will be harder and harder to spike for those going forward if there's not some new drama companion to increase the hype for the night. The network is increasingly treating it like an afterthought with this scheduling. It only scrapes together its 1.0ish from the late spring and is fractional from week two onward. Down over a third to 0.75.

Likeliest: Again, I actually think the show didn't get much weaker last year after accounting for the 8/7c move; it was tracking around -13% year-to-year before that happened. So the perception of the show is more down than the show itself. But perception still matters; it'll have a rotten lead-in situation, it probably gets promoted less since it's not leading into new dramas anymore, and it may well get thrown under the bus again if NBC comes up with any other viable idea for Friday. And I think these things will get tougher to overcome as the show gets up there in years. It just about matches last year's 18% drop with a 0.95.

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