The Breakdown: NBC Thursday in 2015-16 (Heroes Reborn, The Blacklist, Shades of Blue and more!)

It's time for a journey through the NBC Thursday schedule in 2015-16...

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/28/16

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC opened new dramedy You, Me and the Apocalypse (1.2) to soft but not-totally-awful results, going a couple ticks above recent episodes of Heroes Reborn in the hour. It will have to do well going forward to stay at Heroes levels long-term (and it avoided both The Big Bang Theory and Grey's Anatomy on this night), but it may at least be able to meet the low expectations that come with a foreign co-production.
• And at least for now, Apocalypse wasn't a drag on the lead-out dramas, as The Blacklist hung yet another 1.6 at 9/8c. Shades of Blue inched back down to 1.3.

• It was an encouraging second week for the CW's new Thursday lineup, as Legends of Tomorrow (1.1) and The 100 (0.6) each dropped just a tenth in week two.

• CBS went with repeats of The Big Bang Theory (2.0), Mom (1.6) and The Big Bang Theory (1.7) in the first 90 minutes. The second TBBT meant the network was hitting its normal number at 9/8c, and thus the lead-out originals of Angel from Hell (1.4) and Elementary (1.1) stayed steady.

• ABC mercifully bid farewell to its uncompetitive bridge lineup of Beyond the Tank (1.1) and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.7), each up a tenth from recent results. BTT will be back for one more Thursday at 10/9c leading out of the Madoff miniseries.

• And Fox's American Idol (2.3) quietly won another Thursday, down a tenth from last week. More on Fox News' Trump-less Republican debate after finals!

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/21/16

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The Blacklist (1.6) adjusted up and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.6) adjusted down. The CW's shows did not adjust, leaving The 100 with its first 0.7+ since the second week of the series (3/26/14).

• On perhaps the highest-stakes night of the season for the CW, the results were reasonably positive but not spectacular. DC's Legends of Tomorrow didn't come anywhere near the fall 2014 The Flash opener (1.9 on 10/7/14), but it still opened with a great-for-CW 3.14 million viewers and a 1.2 demo rating. That nestles it right between this week's episodes of The Flash (1.3) and Arrow (1.1). As with any series premiere, it's unlikely to sustain this level, but it's certainly given itself a lot of room to work with.
• Leading out was the season three premiere of The 100, whose 0.7 preliminary rating would top anything from season two. It should be strongly stressed here that Legends of Tomorrow ran three minutes into the 9:00 hour, so The 100 will adjust down (at least in the un-rounded numbers). But the worst-case scenario is a tie with last season's high point, so it's a fine to good start either way.

• The big four generally had an encouraging night as well, as perhaps some viewers came back to broadcast from last week's GOP debate. The best news came on CBS, which got its first look at an original Life in Pieces (2.0) with a repeat lead-in from The Big Bang Theory (2.2). Life in Pieces was actually even with last week when TBBT had a 3.8, a rather shockingly strong hold that makes the show's best renewal case yet.
• The network also held up well in the last two hours with Mom (1.7), Angel from Hell (up a tenth to 1.4 in week three) and Elementary (1.1).

• NBC had its own positive newbie result as Shades of Blue (1.4) recouped a tick after last week's big drop. Earlier in the night, the finale of Heroes Reborn (1.0) saw no bounce (perhaps hurt by the CW competition), while The Blacklist (1.5) inched down.

• The unscripted offerings were steady as American Idol (2.4) won the night again for Fox and ABC dropped into fifth place with Beyond the Tank (1.0) and My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.7/0.6). 

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/14/16

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.8) and The Blacklist (1.6) ticked up.
• USA's Colony opened with a very middling 0.44 rating. This was about on par with USA's summer launches of Mr. Robot (0.46) and Complications (0.41), and behind the Dig opener from a year ago (0.56).
• The Republican debate averaged a 1.85 in the demo with just over 11 million total viewers.

• Week two brought a disappointing drop for NBC's Shades of Blue (1.3), shedding a half-point (or over 25%) of last week's solid premiere. This exhausts a lot of the show's considerable premiere cushion, and it'll have to hold up pretty well from here just to stay on the bubbly tier with The Mysteries of Laura. Shades' lead-in The Blacklist (1.5) was down a tenth in its second episode of 2016, while the penultimate Heroes Reborn (1.0) was even.

• CBS' own week two newbie Angel from Hell also hit a 1.3. This is a more reasonable week-to-week drop from last week's 1.6 premiere, but that premiere was modest enough that this isn't exactly good news. It now seems pretty clearly weaker than most of the other middling CBS comedies. CBS had a slew of small drops elsewhere with The Big Bang Theory (3.7), Life in Pieces (2.0), Mom (1.7) and Elementary (1.1).

• It was a tough night for most of the unscripted options, too. Fox's American Idol (2.2) won another night in broadcast primetime but was down a half-point from last week (though just another low-teens decline year-to-year). ABC's Beyond the Tank held at 1.0, but My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.6) dropped a tenth from last week's already awful premiere. And The World Dog Awards on the CW (0.3) were down noticeably from last year's 0.5.

• These broadcast declines have at least some excuse as another big GOP debate aired on Fox Business. Household overnights suggest it was the lowest-rated debate yet this cycle (and about 15% below the previous FBN debate), but it still probably broke 10 million viewers. More after finals!

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/7/16

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Life in Pieces (2.1) adjusted down.

• NBC continued its stout opening to 2016 with a nice sampling for the new Jennifer Lopez drama Shades of Blue (1.8), not far from where Heroes Reborn opened the fall (2.0) and growing from The Blacklist (1.6) lead-in on premiere night. Blacklist itself also did pretty well, upticking to its best rating since the season premiere. However, NBC had another low-end performance in the 8/7c hour as Heroes Reborn (1.0) did not return well.

• CBS also had a scripted series premiere in the Jane Lynch sitcom Angel from Hell (1.6), which dropped a bit from its Mom (1.8) lead-in on opening night and was close to the fall 2014 premiere of failed The McCarthys (1.7). It'd be a fine showing for Angel on a normal night, but for a series premiere it's pretty blah; it will not want to separate from Mom much more than this.
• Mom (1.8) and Life in Pieces (2.2) each tied their best Thursday performances of the season, while Elementary (1.2) hit a season high even as The Big Bang Theory (3.8) didn't get any real early January upswing.

• Fox's American Idol (2.7) delivered another strong two hours to round out its premiere week, though it was not quite as sensational as the Wednesday premiere. (This ep was down just a bit more than league average from last year's 3.1 Thursday opener.)

• And ABC began its tough road through the TGIT hiatus with a not-awful showing from Beyond the Tank (1.0) at 8/7c but very little interest in the newbie My Diet is Better Than Yours (0.7).

• CW had still more repeats with The Vampire Diaries (0.2) and The Originals (0.2).

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/19/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: CBS saw only small declines from the prelims; The Big Bang Theory was even and everything else dropped just a tenth or two. This left most of the lineup above last week, including season highs for Mom (1.7) and 2 Broke Girls (1.7).

• It was a big fall finale night for TGIT as Grey's Anatomy (2.5) surged to its best rating since the season premiere, Scandal (2.4) was up two tenths and How to Get Away with Murder (2.3) had the biggest growth of all, zooming by 0.4 as it resolved the cliffhanger it has hyped all fall. But as usual, Grey's was the runaway winner on a year-to-year basis, actually beating last year's 2.4 fall finale while the other two were down over 20%.

• NBC was pretty normal with Heroes Reborn (1.1), The Blacklist (1.5) and The Player (0.8). But TGIT's surge may have taken a chunk out of the more female-skewing drama lineups as Bones (1.0), Sleepy Hollow (0.8), The Vampire Diaries (0.5) and The Originals (0.4) all tied series lows.

• CBS' The Big Bang Theory (3.8), Life in Pieces (2.0), Mom (1.8), 2 Broke Girls (1.9) and Elementary (1.0) are pending Thursday Night Football preemptions, though in smaller markets than usual.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/12/15

 WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: CBS' finals carnage was similar to last week, with The Big Bang Theory (3.7) barely ticking down but Life in Pieces (1.8), Mom (1.5), 2 Broke Girls (1.6) and Elementary (0.8) all getting slammed by four or five tenths after adjustments. This put TBBT even with last week, LiP a tenth below last week, Mom steady but still soft, 2 Broke Girls actually ahead of its Mom lead-in, and Elementary down an ugly three tenths to a new series low. The only adjustment on the other networks was a 0.1 gain for The Blacklist.

• Once again, CBS has to wait for finals due to a double-dose of Thursday Night Football preemptions. It doesn't mean much of anything, but The Big Bang Theory (3.8), Life in Pieces (2.3) and Mom (2.0) were all very close to last week's often heavily inflated prelims, while the return of 2 Broke Girls (2.0) at 9:30 preliminarily matched its Mom lead-in. Elementary (1.3) was down from last week's 1.5 prelim but above the 1.1 final.

• On a steady night for TGIT, Scandal (2.2) pulled back into a tie with Grey's Anatomy (2.2) thanks to Grey's inching down from last week. How to Get Away with Murder (1.9) was even.

• The other three networks were all eerily steady, with the only notable being Heroes Reborn (1.1) giving back a chunk (though not all) of last week's huge surge. The Blacklist (1.4), The Player (0.7), Bones (1.1), Sleepy Hollow (0.9), The Vampire Diaries (0.6) and The Originals (0.4) all matched last week.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/5/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Yeesh. The Big Bang Theory went down just a tenth to 3.7, actually putting it within league average of the 4.1 Thursday opener last year. Everything beyond that got adjusted down at least four tenths:
• Life in Pieces (1.9) found itself about on par with its normal Monday level;
• Mom (1.5) had a stunningly weak opener, starting at a new series low (even behind Thanksgiving last year!) and basically a half point behind its usual spring ratings;
• The Big Bang Theory (R) went down to 1.3, while Elementary went down to 1.1. Elementary was just a tenth behind last year's premiere, but that doesn't necessarily mean a steady season is ahead since the fall was so much weaker than the rest of the season.
• Even on the other networks, the only adjustments were down: Bones to a 1.1 and Scandal to a 2.2 (behind its 2.3 Grey's lead-in and marking a sixth straight decline since the premiere).

• Any definitive declarations about the new CBS Thursday lineup will have to wait for finals due to Thursday Night Football preemptions in both teams' markets. In particular, the 10/9c premiere of Elementary (1.5) looks like something that could be pretty inflated. The network also had The Big Bang Theory (3.8), Life in Pieces (2.3), Mom (2.0) and a repeat of Big Bang (1.7). My only real preliminary observation is that Mom could look somewhat disappointing if it gets whacked by the finals, since 2.0 is already toward the low end of what it was doing last spring.

• On ABC, Grey's Anatomy (2.3) was back at 8/7c, but it was of no real help to Scandal (2.3) (unable to build from Grey's for the first time this season) and a barely-rebounding How to Get Away with Murder (1.9).

• All week, we've seen NBC's marginal 8/7c occupants throw their hats into the ring with major surges in the first week after DST, and this night was no exception as Heroes Reborn (1.3) zoomed to its best rating since week two. But The Blacklist (1.4) and The Player (0.7) couldn't join in on the fun in the last two hours.

• Fox's Bones (1.2) and Sleepy Hollow (0.9) were both down from last week's crossover, but it seems like a fine result for Bones considering how heavily it was hurt against Big Bang's arrival last year. The CW had another 0.6/0.4 night with The Vampire Diaries and The Originals.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/29/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The Vampire Diaries (0.6) adjusted up. Thursday Night Football (6.0) was actually up just a tenth from last week after accounting for time zones and the NFL Network audience.

• ABC broke up TGIT for a night to put its annual second airing of It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown (1.7) at 8/7c in place of Grey's Anatomy. While it was a good night for the Peanuts special itself (even with last year's airing on the same evening), it did no favors to the rest of TGIT, as Scandal (2.3) dropped by two tenths and How to Get Away with Murder (1.8) by a pretty disappointing three tenths to a new low.

• Fox had its own irregularity as it opened November sweeps with a crossover between Bones (1.3) and Sleepy Hollow (1.1). As usual, this was much more helpful to the second show as Hollow spiked by three tenths to a new season high, but Bones had a rather good night in its own right. (The arrival of The Big Bang Theory, which seemingly destroyed this show last year, looms next week.)

• NBC was up a tenth for The Blacklist (1.5) but saw some more erosion for Heroes Reborn (1.0) and The Player (0.7). CW Thursday stayed pretty low with The Vampire Diaries (0.5) and The Originals (0.4).

• Meanwhile, this was the last week of the regular run for Thursday Night Football on CBS, though it will return to CBS for a one-off in early December. With Tom Brady and the Patriots in this game, it looks like it was up at least 10% from last week in the early prelims.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/22/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: How to Get Away with Murder (2.1) adjusted up to put all of TGIT up a tenth from last week. Thursday Night Football had a 5.9 combined CBS/NFLN final, up a point from last week and about in line with the season-to-date average.

• Like most of this week, Thursday brought a lot of steadiness and a lot of slight upticks. This included TGIT's Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and Scandal (2.5) each rising by a tenth from last week's finals to mark a second straight increase for Grey's. But How to Get Away with Murder (2.0) couldn't join in on the upward momentum, staying at last week's low.

• Fox had a minor rebound from Bones (1.2) but none from Sleepy Hollow (0.8) as the shows await next week's crossover. And NBC's Heroes Reborn (1.1) and The Blacklist (1.4) were even as The Player (0.8) edged up from last week's ugliness.

• The only network on the decline from last week was the CW, as The Vampire Diaries (0.5) and The Originals (0.4) each inched down. 

• CBS had Thursday Night Football again, this time with no baseball competition. Its prelim 3.7 was slightly up from last week, but more after finals!

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/15/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.3) and Scandal (2.4) each adjusted up, putting Grey's ahead of last week's number. Thursday Night Football just barely had another new season low at 4.9, down a tenth from last week. TBS baseball averaged a 2.11.
  

• There were many more drops on the fourth Thursday of the season. ABC's TGIT is once again seeing Grey's Anatomy (2.2) emerge as the biggest winner, as it was even at 8/7c as Scandal (2.3) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.0) dropped multiple tenths again in the last two hours.

• On NBC, Heroes Reborn (1.1) and The Blacklist (1.4) each shed a tenth, and The Player (0.7) got really ugly by dropping two.

• And Fox, which had the best holding lineup last week, dropped sizably this time as Bones (1.1) and Sleepy Hollow (0.8) were each down two tenths.

• The CW was the most resilient this week as The Vampire Diaries (0.6) matched the premiere and The Originals (0.5) inched up in week two.

• CBS had what looks like another relatively weak Thursday Night Football game, but TBS likely made up for it with a big winner-take-all baseball game between the Mets and Dodgers. More after finals!

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/8/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.2) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.2) adjusted up. Thursday Night Football (5.0) had a season low by a wide margin and was down nearly two points from last week. 

• Thursday #3 brought another swath of week-to-week declines, even against what looks like a much weaker football game on CBS/NFL Network. The biggest drops this time came on NBC, where Heroes Reborn (1.2) was down four tenths, making it the latest newbie to experience a brutal week three decline. This takes it from potential real success to just barely an improvement on last year's The Biggest Loser. The Blacklist (1.5) took another of its usual significant post-premiere dips, and The Player (0.9) seems headed for fractional territory this time after adjusting up from 0.9 last week.

• On ABC, Grey's Anatomy (2.1), Scandal (2.6) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.1) were each down two more tenths in the prelims. Once again, this was about in line with how these shows behaved last season, but they pretty much stabilized from here for the rest of the fall, so we'll see if it happens this time.

• The steadiest of the big four nets was actually Fox, where Bones (1.3) lost just a tenth post-premiere and Sleepy Hollow clung for dear life to its 1.0. 

• The CW had a soft start to its vampire consolidation on Thursday with The Vampire Diaries (0.6) only able to match its usual number from the spring and down a third from last season's premiere. The Originals (0.4) was even worse, only tying its series low from last season on Monday. (And it only hit 0.4 once on that night.) Matching last year's Reign premiere is not what the CW was hoping for here.

First Two Weeks, Heroes Reborn

We may throw this under the Heroes banner for historical purposes, but for this game's purposes, it's a new show!

WEEK ONE 
Rating: 2.0 (two hours)
Lead-in: Local programming
Competition: Grey's Anatomy / Scandal (2.8/3.3), Thursday Night Football (2.2/6.0), Scream Queens (R) (0.7), The Flash (R) / Arrow (R) (0.4/0.3)

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/1/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Bones (1.4) went up, now at its outright best number since last December. The Player (1.0) also got a surprising bump, but nothing in TGIT adjusted despite a couple shows being close in the prelims. Thursday Night Football had a 6.9 final, up nearly a point from last week. This is CBS' biggest TNF rating other than the 2014 and 2015 premiere games.

• NBC brought back The Blacklist (1.8) for season three with a considerably better lead-in than it enjoyed for most of its Thursday run in the winter/spring, and got a solid result. This is more like where Blacklist settled in the winter, and a healthy rally from its ugly spring run (which got as low as 1.2).
• Meanwhile, lead-in Heroes Reborn (1.6) was down a typical-ish 20% in week two, still showing real potential to be a big timeslot improvement in its own right. But Blacklist's lead-out newbie The Player (0.9) proved no better a match with its new lead-in, shedding 25% to drop to the clear bottom of the early NBC totem pole.

• Fox's opening Thursday was less promising overall, though one probably couldn't ask too much more of Bones (1.3), which rose above most of its spring deliveries to its highest rating since the spring premiere (albeit still three tenths behind last year's fall premiere). But the season three ugliness began from day one for Monday transplant Sleepy Hollow (1.0), already deep in new series low territory and a full half behind last year's premiere.

• On ABC, Grey's Anatomy (2.3), Scandal (2.8) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.3) were all down double digits in week two, pretty similar drops to what went down in week two last year. Grey's and Scandal still aren't too far off of league average year-to-year declines (and Grey's might even get there if it adjusts up). Murder remains weakest on a year-to-year basis by a wide margin, well below last year's 3.2 in week two.

• More on football after finals!

SpotVault - Heroes Reborn (NBC) - 2015-16 Ratings

Best Case/Worst Case: How to Get Away with Murder, Heroes Reborn, The Player

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere.