Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/20/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Finals made things even worse for The Millers (2.1), down to its second-worst retention ever out of Big Bang (4.6). Good luck next week. Castle (1.5) also got uglier, now down a fairly bizarre 0.4 week-to-week. And the CW took a hit as well, with Jane the Virgin (0.5) down two tenths from the prelims to finish a tenth behind last week's premiere. But, like last week, it remained within a tenth of The Originals (0.6). The only particularly notable uptick belonged to Gotham (2.3); it was still down week-to-week, but by just a tenth now.
  • On CBS' final The Big Bang Theory-fueled Monday, The Millers (2.2) proved why CBS was in no hurry to bring it back. It returned at just 50% retention of Big Bang (4.4), and it's likely to be less after finals. The good news is that (at least for this week) it didn't seem to hurt the rest of the lineup. Scorpion (2.4) was even despite an 0.6 decline in lead-in and NCIS: Los Angeles (1.7) inched up. But Big Bang will be out of the picture completely next Monday.
  • In the second week after the blind auditions, viewers left The Voice (3.3) in droves, and The Blacklist (2.4) also suffered. We'll see if the absence of Big Bang helps in future weeks. Fox saw Gotham (2.2) decline for a fourth straight week, but Sleepy Hollow (1.8) recovered a bit.
  • ABC and the CW both had Monday Night Football pre-emptions. The preliminary looks potentially promising for week two of Jane the Virgin (0.7), and not so much for Castle (1.6), which took a big dip even before adjustments. More after finals.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.0 20% +0%+0.0n/a 3/8 +0% +0% +1% 2.1
Castle 1.5 22% -21%-0.4+0.0 4/4 -21% -21% -23% 1.6
ABC:-7%-7%
The Big Bang Theory 4.6 36% +2%+0.1n/a 4/6 -12% +2% +53% 4.4
The Millers 2.1 30% n/an/an/a 1/1 -36% -25% -16% 1.7
Scorpion 2.4 28% +0%+0.0-0.7 4/5 n/a +0% +2% 2.2
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.7 25% +6%+0.1+0.0 2/4 -32% +6% +48% 1.7
CBS:-3%+19%
The Voice Mon 3.4 36% -15%-0.6n/a 5/5 -21% -15% -21% 3.3
The Blacklist 2.4 33% -14%-0.4-0.6 5/5 -20% -14% -19% 2.2
NBC:-15%-20%
Gotham 2.3 48% -4%-0.1n/a 5/5 n/a -4% +5% 2.3
Sleepy Hollow 1.8 46% +6%+0.1-0.1 2/5 n/a +6% +71% 1.6
Fox:+0%+26%
The Originals 0.6 60% -14%-0.1n/a 3/3 -33% -14% +33% 0.7
Jane the Virgin 0.5 47% -17%-0.1-0.1 2/2 n/a -17% +67% 0.6
CW:-15%+47%
Big5:-8%+1%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

44 comments:

Spot said...

The Millers' performance is just sad. I don't know what CBS will do with it for the next 3 years. They hide the dramas in Sunday/Friday when their only value is coming from syndication but comedies is a different issue. Maybe they will create a Mike and Molly | The Millers pairing on a weekend night as a way to keep the millers without causing damage? I don't know. It will struggle to even hit a 1.7 next week with 2 Broke Girls as the lead-in.

Spot said...

I guess you already saw this, but if you did not (or for the benefits of others) tvmediainsights has the final revised ratings (with shares) for the first two weeks of the season (with the exception of Sunday 10/05, which had not been updated yet).

Monday 9/22: http://www.tvmediainsights.com/forum/topic/monday-92214-4/page/7/

Tuesday 9/23: http://www.tvmediainsights.com/forum/topic/tuesday-92314-3/page/5/


every other day except Sunday 10/05: http://www.tvmediainsights.com/topics/tvratings/
(I will update if I can find Sunday revised finals.)

Spot said...

Thanks a lot!

Spot said...

The crazy thing is that it hit a 2.1 last year on HUT depressed Halloween with a 2.8 repeat lead in. Now it only has a 2.2 with a 4.4 probably airing in the highest HUT slot it's ever aired in. It had a 1.9 and a few 1.8 repeats last year! 2 Brokes Girl is not going to be much of an anchor. This could get ugly. Only good news is that 2 Broke Girls might do okay next week. They have a Kardashian on and Lindsey Lohan turned out to be a draw for that audience, so it may get mid 2's.

Spot said...

Come on Blacklist! Do better! A 2.4 right now is unacceptable! You have a 3.3 lead in right now (probably higher at 9:30) and a combined 3.3 between your competitors! How is it going to be Thursdays at 9 when you have Scandal (which could easily return as stong as Castle/LA combined) and God knows what as a lead in? I love this show, DO BETTER

Spot said...

Great for Sleepy Hollow. It steadied the ship around a 1.7 even with dropping lead in. Plus it upticked! Something The Following only pulled off for the finale last year.
.
Props for Scorpion for staying steady. First time it has grown. It guess this will test if CBS cares more about syndicating the Millers or possibly producing their first elite drama since Criminal Minds. Also, solid showing for LA compared to previous ones

Spot said...

Look at the bright side. The Millers is CBS' 2nd-highest rated comedy. X3

Spot said...

I don't think it's a lock and find it strange that they are willing to put such a thing on the headline this soon, but I still think it's more likely to be renewed than cancelled.

The more interesting syndication question this year is the following: will syndication really force ABC to renew Nashville while allowing FOX to cut Mindy when the difference in number of episodes between the two at the end of the present season would be just 4 episodes?

Spot said...

I think The Blacklist is doing great. This is the first episode this season that is 20% down y2y. Through first 5 episodes it's just 13% down y2y, I think.
I mean, I expected *every* Monday episode would be 20+% down y2y, with y2y decline more like 26%, not 13%. I really thought that's gonna happen, because of somewhat weaker Voice, plus increased competition from CBS.

Spot said...

Monty, the corrected Sunday 10/5 numbers I received last week were the exact numbers I had posted on 10/7. Nielsen indicated they fixed the problem that weekend so it made sense that figures for that Sunday remained

Spot said...

Firs of all, thank you very much son of the bronx once again for all the updates and all the numbers you provide us with.

However, I am confused with this. TVBythenumbers published last week revised ratings for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of the third week (06/10, 07/10 and 08/10). Those have not been revised in your posts yet, correct? And the Sunday 05/10 should also be in need of revising, no? The initial statement published by Nielsen said that the ratings were wrong up until Wednesday 08/10 and that the final numbers released for Thursday 09/10 were already corrected.

Spot said...

For fun, how about an over/under for the 2014 World Series! Over at TV Media Insights today, you can guess the viewers/demo at the Daily Game there.

Brief Adults 18-49 per game average history:
2013 Boston-St. Louis (6 games): 4.25
2012 San Francisco-Detroit (4 games): 3.6
2011 St. Louis-Texas (7 games): 4.8

2014 Kansas City-San Francisco: ??

This year, Fox scheduled the Series to air Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday (Sunday, next Tue and Wed, if necessary) to avoid Thursday and Monday Night Football. But it'll air on the two lowest HUT level nights. Will each team's magical playoff runs garner ratings regardless?

OVER/UNDER: 3.75

Spot said...

That's what I thought too. When I got my newly revised numbers for Oct 5-8 from my Nielsen service, though, they were the same as when I had posted back then. I'll check what TVBTN had posted and see the discrepancies.

Spot said...

I'm not ready to panic yet on Blacklist's behalf, but the last two weeks have made it look far more lead-off dependent than I would have suspected last season. 9 p.m. on a Thursday is a tough, tough slot and I wouldn't be surprised to see it quickly drop below a 2.0 in the demo once its there if there are a few more weeks of results like this week's and last week's. But I've been against this move to Thursdays since it was announced, so I may just be showing my bias.

Spot said...

To add to omabin's point, there is definitely another set of numbers out there: in the week 2 Live+7 post (http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/10/20/how-to-get-away-with-murder-has-biggest-adults-18-49-ratings-increase-parenthood-tops-percentage-gains-the-blacklist-tops-viewer-gains-in-live-7-ratings-for-week-ending-october-5/317313/), Once Upon a Time is compared against different L+SD finals (8.785m, 3.2 demo) than what was initially published (9.24m, 3.3). So it's worth double-checking, but thanks a ton for what you've provided already!

Spot said...

Thanks!

Spot said...

By the way, to make it easier for you:

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?s=revised+ratings

Spot said...

You're kinda barking up the wrong tree here. If you remember, I was among those not liking move of The Blacklist to Thursday, and I was very vocal about it in comments of Spot's upfronts coverage. Most other people liked that move, and I'd certainly like if two of us would be able to "I told you" them after Blacklist falls well bellow 2.0 on Thursdays. However odds are against us, because...
1. That -13% drop is really good, all things considered.
2. NBC is doing gimmick with The Blacklist post-SB episode being Part 1 of a 2-parter, so first Thursday episode (Part 2, four day later) should be very well sampled.
3. All points to ABC again taking split-seasons approach, and Shonda Thursday returning from hiatus 3 weeks after The Blacklist is already at Thursday, thus not hitting TB ratings right off the bat.

Spot said...

I got 10/6-8 revised at TVMI, thanks to another set of revised sheets I had gotten but all my 10/5 sheets were the same as when I originally posted. I have one more option to go to other than TVBTN (because that site does not have the exact demo data I get) and I'll let you know here when I correct 10/5.

Spot said...

The Bear also assumed Elementary would get a season 3 for the same reasons. I guess it kinda makes sense. The Millers and Elementary are both shows that seem tailored made for syndication. Millers is a multicam with almost no overarching story. Elementary in a New York police based procedural. I can see them on the nightly strip. The Mindy Project is a bad repeating niche sitcom. Nashville is a prime time soap. Even soapy hits Desperate Housewives and Grey's Anatomy didn't do too well in syndication. Maybe Mindy could pull a 30 Rock and actually do okay in syndication compared to first run, but I doubt it

Spot said...

Thank you very much Son of the Bronx!

Spot said...

CW gave Jane the Virgin full season. And to The Flash too.
I understand why they give Jane 9 more episodes despite poor ratings - because Reign pretty much collapsed.
I don't understand why they didn't renew The Flash for Season 2 instead. It's the biggest CW hit ever, yet they're treating it like its in same tier as The Tomorrow People or Jane the Virgin.

Spot said...

Had to piece together all the corrected data I could for 10/5 but all viewer and 18-49 data are now updated online! Thanks for the tips, spotupj and omabin

Spot said...

2BG-The Millers combo is going to be ugly.


Blacklist had its first worrisome week of the year, Castle didn't perform well too and Scorpion is going to be renewed.

Spot said...

Thank you very much sonofthebronx!

Spot said...

Vampire Diaries wasn't renewed until February its rookie year

Spot said...

Fox. Under.

Spot said...

The bear always assumes shows on 44 will make it to 88, regardless of their suitability for syndication. Don't remember the bear instantly treating Elementary's second renewal as a given in the way it's doing with The Millers now. (Though the third renewal after this season is treated as a lock, and I don't think anyone who understands the business can reasonably argue there.)

Spot said...

I understand that CBS wants some of that sweet, sweet syndie cash, but is it really worth dragging it, 'til Death-style, for three years just to get enough episodes for whatever pittance per-episode fee an unpopular show is worth? Does anyone actually see 'tD in syndication?

Spot said...

The CW has iZombie, The Messenger, Hart of Dixie, and Beauty and the Beast for midseason. Before the full season pickup I considered the schedule to be pretty easy. Top Model ends early, freeing up Hart of Dixie's final season. Supernatural moves to Monday and frees up a slot for a newbie behind the Flash. The 100 ends early and lets a newbie lead out of Arrow.
Then Jane messed that up.
Sending any of the new shows to Friday isn't smart, but all of their anchors besides Arrow have a 22 episode show after them. It seems a waste to have the Flash air into Supernatural when it is so strong right now, but a total waste of Supernatural to throw it to Friday. The CBS internal politics may mess it up, but this is the best I have midseason.
Originals/Jane, Flash/Newbie, Arrow/Newbie, Vampire Diaries/Supernatural, and Hart of Dixie/Reign
Whose Line moves to summer for the second half of the season. Reign keeps producing episodes for syndication, but not waste its lead in. The Flash's big audience is funneled into something new. I also think that if anything on the CW can go head to head with Blacklist and Scandal it will be Supernatural.

Spot said...

Bill actually replied to me directly last year around November when I specifically asked by a season 2 show at 74% of CBS' scripted average was certain to be renewed. He said something along the lines of "The last CBS drama cancelled in season 2 was Shark back in 2008, if a CBS drama makes it to season 2, it is certain to be renewed for seasons 3 and 4"

Spot said...

Over

I have no clue, I'm just hoping for long series which supposedly would mean over 3.75. I just want poor Fox to catch a break. Especially their poor PR people, I feel sorry for them when I see they go to great lengths just to find something:
Mulaney was the highest-rated program in its half hour in M18-34...
...excluding sports, excluding reality shows, and excluding all cable shows.

Spot said...

Ouch at the finals for the Millers. 46% retention for a premiere. Down 30% in Plus from last year, while Big Bang's Plus is identical. Pure rejection.

Spot said...

Under. The numbers for the ALCS and NLCS were low and it's FOX so they'll probably get unlucky and get only four games. Plus, I told myself to stop being so optimistic with the questions.

Spot said...

Even with a not surprising MNF preemption adjustment down one tenth, the 21% Castle decline week to week makes about as much sense as The Amazing Race's 27% increase week to week last Friday. Nielsen software glitch or not, sometimes these ratings just confound. Castle has one of the most loyal and consistent audiences on network television. The Blacklist decline makes more sense since it appears to have already lost most of its water cooler buzz status in its sophomore season among fickle viewers--and there is arguably still some Voice influence over its ratings with The Voice declining six tenths week to week..

The Millers is already starting to bring down property values at 8:30 in its season premier on Monday, even debuting next to CBS most prized real estate. It appears as if The Millers will be seriously testing CBS' toleration for pain. Is it really worth saving this turkey for syndication, CBS? I'm not entirely convinced yet that Scorpion's ratings are not at all influenced by The Big Bang Theory, even though it grew out of the declining Millers. It's not unreasonable to think that some of the huge Big Bang audience stuck around and watched The Millers under protest since all the network competition was already in progress at the half hour. The coming weeks will be very telling for CBS.

Spot said...

They would if they expected more out of JtV or pushed one of the midseason shows back so they could have strong launches in fall and winter. Having a high-rated show lead in to a newbie is the strategy The CW has used to have success the past five years. Why would they turn their back on it now by letting the only two show capable of pulling a 1.0+ stay on the same night?

Spot said...

Yeah I don't see which network would pay big bucks for the millers. The show is probably the most known "fraud" there is on television right now. I feel like even the post Idol (back in its heyday), post Voice or post MF shows have been more "respected" than the millers is.

Spot said...

I think the whole notion that we used to have that shows that air in the fall are those that the network is mostly invested in may not necessarily be true anymore. I thought the cw was much more invested in the 100 last year than it ever was on The Tomorrow People for instance. ABC clearly put much more into Resurrection than Betrayal or Lucky 7. And FOX clearly wanted The Following to air much more than, say, The Mob Doctor. NBC's investment in About a Boy last year was also pretty big. Obviously you can give me tones of counter examples and for the most part, I agree that the shows that networks launch in the fall tend to be the most promising ones in their perspectives but I wouldn't make that a rule at all.

Also, on the subject of the CW schedule, I think it's worth remembering that The Tomorrow People also got a backorder last year and then got what was essentially a burnoff treatment on Mondays, which last year were as much of a graveyeard as were Fridays for the CW. So despite the backorder, it's still entirely possible that Jane goes to Fridays.

I continue to stand by the idea that they should go for:
Mondays: The Originals + Supernatural
Tuesdays: The Flash + Izombie
Wednesdays: Arrow + The 100 | The Messengers
Thursdays: The Vampire Diaries + Reign
Fridays: Jane the Virgin + Hart of Dixie | Whose Line + Jane the Virgin

Beauty and the Beast on summer after Whose Line once again on a weekday.

Spot said...

Because Supernatural would lose 2 or 3 tenths with a move to Monday or Thursday, as those are nights with stronger competition, yet with less compatible lead-in for it (female oriented). Therefore, such move would be justified only if newbie would gain 3+ tenths by the means of strong The Flash lead-in. And I think that's not the case this midseason (although SPN transfer to Monday might be justified comes next fall, pending on which new shows CW will pick). I see it this way:
1. The Messengers looks Cult-like strong, so I think it would get 0.4 average on Tuesdays instead of 0.3 it will get on Wednesdays.
2. iZombie? Not even that, as it's looking like Star-Crossed, so it wouldn't gain anything from pairing with The Flash. Meaning, all gains because of the stronger lead-in would be cancelled by incompatibility with The Flash.

Above I'm assuming Messengers/iZombie will score ratings weaker than The 100/Jane will. If that's not true, then CW is actually doing mistake by pushing it to midseason - if Messengers/iZombie 1st season would be semi-strong (like The 100/Reign), then surely they would like 22 episodes of those more than they like 22 episodes of Jane. And if ratings are really strong (like 1st seasons of Arrow/Originals), then they're doing big mistake. But I'm simply trusting Pedowitz on it - because I never saw him wrongly assessing his network inventory.

Spot said...

I dislike your schedule. In order from the biggest flaw:
1. Because of incompatibility iZombie wouldn't gain anything from strong The Flash lead-in. It could even get better ratings out of TVD or Originals.
2. Supernatural would lose 2-3 tenths with move to a bit stronger night, with lead-in being much less strong and a bit less compatible. Yes, CW still would move it on Monday to accommodate promising new show. But they will never do it to free timeslot for some obvious flop.
3. So far, Jane the Virgin is clearly ahead of Reign in ratings, so I expect Reign to be the one moving to Friday.

As for your examples, they are completely wrong too. About a Boy was launched from Olympics/Voice, The Following from big NFL playoff game, and Resurrection from The Oscars. Those shows were handpicked among dozen or so new shows big networks order to series each year. On the other hand, poor The CW ordered only 8 pilots last season, each with budget roughly double smaller than those of big 4 shows. They have no commodity to push potential hits into midseason, especially with network being in bad state, and unsureness if they will broadcast at all 2 years from now.

Spot said...

In terms of your points:
1. I admit you might be right there. I haven't actually seen any trailer for iZombie so I don't actually know for sure what its tone will be. My reasoning is that, like Arrow and Flash, it comes from DC Comics Universe which would be, in and by itself, enough of a compatibility point. All comics based shows that we have now (Arrow, Shield, Flash, Gotham) tend to resonate with the male demo, so it should appeal to the Flash audience. This was my reasoning. If Izombie is a completely different type of show than the other comics shows are than I can agree with you that it doesn't make sense to try it after The Flash and it's probably better to simply launch it after The Originals (or TVD)
2. I am not entirely sure if Supernatural would really loose all that much. The show is evenish with what it was doing last year, which can be taken in two ways: the flash lead-in is doing nothing for it so it's taking an average drop OR the flash lead-in is preventing it from taking an higher than average drop. Given its ratings history and age, I am more inclined to believe in the first option, so I don't really see much of a reason to think it would drop more than a standard 0.1 or 0.2 It had its best season to date after The Originals last year, why shouldn't it do well after it now? Mondays at 9 also aren't particularly more competitive for the show IMO, especially when Sleepy Hollow gets out of the way at midseason. Regardless, even if it did loose all that, presumably iZombie (if compatible with the flash) would gain more than 0.3 from airing on Tuesdays instead of Mondays ,so the move would still have been justified. Outside possible bonus: The Originals might even get back 0.1 or so from the compatible lead-out once again.
3. Reign had a 0.45 last week. Jane had a 0.5 (don't know the rounding yet) in its second episode and nothing tells me that it is done falling. Odds are that Jane will drop more than Reign considering its age. In my opinion, they are about even ratings wise. So I would make the choice not based on the shows themselves but based on which slots (Mondays at 9pm or Thursdays at 9pm) are better to launch a new show (or to move Supernatural to). I still think Mondays against the voice and dwts is a slightly better option for a drama than thursdays against scandal and the blacklist, but I admit that I don't feel too strongly about this anymore and to me the options are sort of interchangeable at this point. Of course, if the CW intends to keep Reign (a la Beauty and the Beast) and be done with Jane at the end of the season, it would also make sense to do what's possible to maximize the ratings for the show they will keep, everything else being equal.

As for the midseason launches, I take your point and I see why my examples were handpicked but I still think that a post-fall launch is not necessarily a bad thing. To me, what the CW did this fall says more about them wanting to be completely focused on the flash than it does about them liking or not their midseason shows.

Spot said...

OK, at least now I understand where our opinions differ. Thanks.

Your opinion:
Supernatural: down 10% if moved to Monday in midseason, from 1.0 to 0.9 = -0.10.
midseason show: gains 100% from The Flash lead-in, 0.6-0.7 on Tuesday instead 0.3-0.4 on Monday, +0.30.
net sum: +0.20

My opinion
Supernatural: down 25% if moved to Monday in midseason, from 1.0 to 0.75 = -0.25.
midseason show: gains 25% from The Flash lead-in, 0.4-0.5 on Tuesday instead 0.3-0.4 on Monday, +0.10.
net sum: -0.15

You will never convince me your percentages are more realistic than mine are, so let's forgot about it.

Spot said...

spotupj, if you go to my posts at the TVMI ratings forum threads for Sep 15-21, I revised the final numbers there too.

Spot said...

Awesome!

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