Friday, October 10, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/9/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Hours after a Nielsen announcement about a "technical error" affecting broadcast final ratings for months, ABC's three series did not adjust up. This is likely not a coincidence, and there's a good chance that many of ABC's sizable adjustments in recent weeks will be wiped out or reduced after the revisions are released on October 17. (Though it's not clear whether we'll actually see these new numbers.) However, Bones (1.6) and The Vampire Diaries (0.8) did go up by a tenth.
  • Week three of TGIT remained the definitive entertainment lineup, but it came down a little more. Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and Scandal (3.0) were each down just over 10% more (though likely just less than 10% after finals). The really good news was that How to Get Away with Murder (3.1) actually took a smaller drop, and at least in preliminaries was ABC's outright biggest show of the night.
  • Among last week's soft premieres, the only one that kept things kinda interesting in week two was NBC's Bad Judge (1.3). It was even week-to-week even as The Biggest Loser (1.2) declined. That's not half bad, really. However, its lead-out A to Z (1.0) was down a typical amount, and Gracepoint (0.9) became the season's third sub-1.0 Fox newbie (with Mulaney likely to follow it soon).
  • Bones (1.5) and Parenthood (1.3) continued to hang in rather respectably, but the CW had a week two decline from The Vampire Diaries (0.7).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy 2.4 36% -11%-0.3n/a 3/3 -14% -11% +41% 2.5
Scandal 3.0 40% -12%-0.4-0.3 3/3 -3% -12% +5% 3.0
How To Get Away With Murder 3.1 36% -6%-0.2-0.4 3/3 n/a -6% +0% 3.2
ABC:-10%+11%
Thursday Night Football Kickoff 2.0 35% -20%-0.5n/a 5/5 n/a -23% -61% 2.2
Thursday Night Football 5.4 43% -8%-0.5-0.5 4/5 n/a -10% +135% 5.9
CBS:-11%+75%
The Biggest Loser 1.2 33% -8%-0.1n/a 5/5 n/a -11% +20% 1.4
Bad Judge 1.3 32% +0%+0.0-0.1 1/2 n/a +0% +30% 1.6
A to Z 1.0 35% -17%-0.2+0.0 2/2 n/a -17% -17% 1.4
Parenthood 1.3 39% +0%+0.0-0.2 2/3 +8% -4% +8% 1.8
NBC:-8%+11%
Bones 1.6 32% +7%+0.1n/a 1/3 -24% +3% -20% 1.8
Gracepoint 0.9 30% -25%-0.3+0.1 2/2 n/a -25% -69% 1.2
Fox:-9%-49%
The Vampire Diaries 0.8 61% -11%-0.1n/a 2/2 -20% -11% -24% 0.8
Reign 0.4 47% +0%+0.0-0.1 1/2 n/a +14% -27% 0.5
CW:-4%-25%
Big5:-9%+11%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

80 comments:

Spot said...

Murder deserves those ratings, it's an incredible show and these ratings are very impressive. I am a bit worried about GA, it did a 2.2 in the first half hour and that was sans Big Bang Theory, I thought it wouldn't hit that until Big Bang would get there. Anyway, being up 11% on the night is still amazing and we will probably get the usual adjustments anyway.

Elsewhere, Bad Judge is showing some actual pulse though it is unclear to me what NBC might do with it considering how much they have in reserve. A to Z and Gracepoint are dead and TBL is a big disapointment to me, I really thought it would be pulling high 1s, about half a point stronger than it is doing here.

On the other hand, Parenthood and, especially, Bones are very respectable. FOX has to renew Bones, it's the only thing respectable they have Tuesday-Friday and will probably out-rate Sleepy Hollow by season's end.

On the CW, The Vampire Diaries did badly but I am not really sure how much could we expect considering what went down last Spring. Reign continues to be a let down and I am seriously worried about the show. Looks like the cw has fixed the early week schedule just in time to worry about Thursdays next season.

Spot said...

So Fox's hierarchy this week for its hour-longs, reality and scripted, is: Gotham (2.5); Sleepy Hollow (1.7); Bones (1.5); Hell's Kitchen (1.4); Gracepoint, Red Band Society, & Family Guy (R) (0.9); and the Gotham repeat & Utopia (who cares). And including half-hour shows, only The Simpsons and maybe Brooklyn Nine-Nine can outrate Bones on Sunday. Where's the dumpster fire emoji?

I did not think we'd see How to Get Away with Murder (preliminarily) outranking Scandal this season. ABC's Thursday shakeup really is paying dividends. I'm sure next season they are going to push for a longer run than just 15 episodes.


Just like how The CW's schedule went from rich teen soaps to genre in 2 seasons, their schedule strength has shifted from later in the week to earlier (with Wednesday continuing to be the fulcrum). I do think The Vampire Diaries will probably get one last season since I don't think it'll drop to final-season 90210 levels, but this is disheartening for a show that held up pretty well for its network.

Spot said...

The CW is shockingly low. Yes, TGIF was bound to hurt it, but nothing can be valid excuse for ratings dropping this much.
W18-34 The Vampire Diaries 0.9, Reign 0.4.
TVD is still doing better than Reign did at this stage last season, so it will be renewed. That's one good news. The only one, unfortunately.
Reign? I guess it airs all 22, because CW has even less inventory than usually. Perhaps going to Friday in midseason, then cancelled in May? Well, they did renewed Beauty and the Beast, so CW is land of endless possibilities. But if that's some show's sole hope...

I'm still very worried about The Blacklist being thrown on Thursday, into basically the same situation where S.H.I.E.L.D. is now: surrounded with weak pieces (OK, less incompatible) to carry the night alone. Only, Monday's Blacklist editions are tracking some 2 tenths above what I expected, so I'm less pessimistic now (though not optimistic). And, I was never worried about it being down to bubble level or whatever, I was worried about NBC killing momentum of the show (and I'm still worried), and turning genuine hit, which could last long, into just a solid player that would air for only 4 to 5 seasons. I suggested Wednesday 10 PM timeslot, which, with Stalker doing bad, now seems perfect for The Blacklist. Well, I expected Stalker to do 30% better than it's actually doing, so I'm kinda right for the wrong reasons here, but that's not the point here.

Spot said...

A couple things could be at work: neither team has a household name a la the Manning brothers, RG3, etc. (though I don't really follow football so I could be wrong), and/or Thursday Night Football's history of blowouts this season means fans are losing interest. If next week's game rates markedly higher, maybe that's the case.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Just reported in Variety:
"Nielsen,the measurement service whose rankings form the basis of how advertisers pay for TV commercials, said a software bug had resulted in
TV ratings being allocated incorrectly among broadcast and syndication
programming since March.
“We started to credit that viewing to different programs,” said
Patricia McDonough, Nielsen’s senior VP of planning policy and analysis,
in a Friday conference call with reporters. “Some of that was done to
the wrong source.”
Executives said 98% to 99% of ratings would not be affected by more than .05 of a ratings point.
Executives declined to specify which networks were affected most, though there is some speculation that ABC’s programming was apparently awarded more viewership than other outlets during the period. An ABC spokeswoman did not respond immediately to an
emailed query.
The company expects to restate ratings going back to the start of the new TV season and will work with various clients regarding viewership measures that data back further, executives said."

Spot said...

Pandora's box alert!

Everyone is now literally holding on to
the hope that their shows that did badly truly did better than reported
and that their shows that did well won't fall with the revised version. Don't even know what to think. All the ratings websites are going crazy

Spot said...

The Colts have a future-and-possibly-current superstar QB in Andrew Luck (who, like Peyton Manning, was a hugely-hyped #1 draft pick), while the Texans have possibly the best defensive player in the league in JJ Watt (who's also got enough name-brand recognition to appear in a Verizon ad that's been on heavy rotation in the NFL games I've seen).

However, neither of them have the power to move the Nielsen needle like Peyton can.

Also, it's worth noting the Colts went 24-0 up with the last play of the first quarter - the casual audience could easily have switched over at that point, never knowing the game wasn't clinched until after the two-minute warning.

Spot said...

Silvio, do you have a regular source for the gender breakdown demos? I imagine you probably got those from press releases and I get some of them occasionally as well, but systematically speaking I haven't found a source this season. Only for 18-34.



By the way, thank you again for the source yesterday for unrounded numbers, I am really happy with it!

Spot said...

Yeah we were all saying that TGIT would pay off in a big way but mostly because of the first two hours and Murder doing okay but we all said that lighting wouldn't strike twice for ABC and that they wouldn't stumble across another Scandal when it looks like that's exactly what's happened. Honestly, and I say this as someone who has been with Scandal since day one and who has usually considered it one of my favorite shows, right now, Murder is the superior show. Both are awesome though, and totally deserving of this success.

Spot said...

While it's not entirely clear, it sounds as if this glitch might have awarded more viewers than stolen, in error. So those low trending shows could decline a fraction more, I suppose. The speculation surrounding ABC is understandable due to all those nightly upward adjustments but this could ultimately affect all the networks, too. Nielsen says, "trust me" :)

Spot said...

Scandal is a bit below where I thought it'd be with no meaningful entertainment competition, but that's probably my expectations being out of hand. Murder is higher than I thought it'd be out of an even bigger Scandal, and Grey's is a massive timeslot upgrade even if it falls some more against TBBT.

Spot said...

cancel confident

Spot said...

Apparently everything will be published on Mondays (the revised versions that is). I think Nielsen should have waited until then to report anything, this just adds fuel to the fire and people are going insane with the speculation.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

I'm surprised how well Parenthood is holding up this season. I thought it would take it's usual 15-20% drop season to season (I'm sure my percentages are off). Perhaps being the final season, viewers decided to return, or those that were watching stuck around. Either way, I'm happy the numbers aren't falling, and that NBC is giving it a proper final season (because they really didn't have to).

Spot said...

There is some continuing drama between Nielsen and competing company, Rentrak that might have forced Nielsen's hand here to come forward but I agree that it creates an atmosphere of unnecessary hysteria and speculation. Rentrak is vying for a piece of the Nielsen pie.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

The Futon Critic posts W18-34 for CW only, and only preliminary ratings, .

SonOfTheBronx doesn't post it anymore. He used to post final W18-34 ratings for all networks on Berman's forum, but stopped to do so in summer (or in spring already? ). Too bad, it would be very interesting to see those for many pf CW and Fox shows. And some on ABC, too, TGIF for example, then Bachelor/-ette. While M18-34 would be interesting to see for Fox Sunday.

Spot said...

Yeah I was reading about it on deadline too

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Yes I agree. I also used to take them from SonOftheBronx (I think upon your suggestion even?). Showbuzzdaily posts the share of M18-49 and W18-49 but I don't really know how to do much with it without knowing the viewership level at the time, I really cannot make much sense of those numbers.

In addition to yours, I also wanted to see M18-34 for shows like Gotham or Shield.

Spot said...

Skipping Cristela Question today, folks. Didn't have time (or motivation, frankly) to get the post put together. Back on Sunday!

Spot said...

By the way, I think tonight's adjustments have suddenly became very interesting! If ABC continues to adjust upwards in all hours like it has been doing, then then error probably had nothing to do with it (since they are saying all ratings reported from today onwards are correct already). If there are no adjustments, there are probably a few downward adjustments to come for ABC come Monday.

Spot said...

Here, I'll set an unofficial one.

Cristela: 1.15

Everyone go nuts!

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Is that before or after the Nielsen fix? :)

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Of course, some of this depends on where that .05 of variance falls, i.e. a 3.4 could become a 3.3 if the number was a 3.36 before the error and a 3.34 after.

Spot said...

Ha! But here's my narrative that I would have typed if I didn't rush to beat someone else (like Silvio or omabin) to the punch:

On its face, Cristela feels poised to at least beat the middling returns that The Neighbors posted last season. It's a traditional multi-cam sitcom that aims to be more realistic/relatable in its premise than aliens leaving among us. The Amazing Race is even weaker than Undercover Boss for family-friendly competition. Plus ABC has been putting more promotional effort behind this show than I expected, probably due to the diversity it represents to their line-up. The one negative is Last Man Standing's slower start to the season than I thought would happen, meaning Cristela won't have as much help. That leads to predict that it'll just start around The Neighbors' season 2 debut number but hold up better through at least the fall.

Spot said...

It sounds very loud. In an unpleasant way. I'm not sure there's going to be much of a night one audience, especially on Fridays. (also, I'm playing in order to tune up my predictive skills a bit after going 0-2 in the weekday portion of this week)

Spot said...

If Fox's shows are adjusted down after this...talk about kicking a network while it's down.

Spot said...

Under
Around 1.0. If you asked me few weeks ago I'd say "over, around 1.4." But seeing all those sitcoms flopping - which I expected - but premiering even bellow my pessimistic predictions, and being already in first or second episode at what I expected to be (rather low) season average, I see similar happens here too.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over at 1.2, with LMS probably holding at 1.3 or 1.4.

Spot said...

I thought about that. But even the flop that is Manhattan Love Story debuted well out of Selfie with next-to-zero promotion. Week 2 is clearly a different story, but ABC's at least giving its new shows more traction than, say, Fox (Mulaney) or NBC (Bad Judge, A to Z).

Spot said...

I"ll predict that the entire ABC lineup tonight still adjusts up, only because both Greys and Scandal have some upward adjustment history before this season and Murder seems to be the "it" show at the moment. That is not to say there won't be any downward adjustments come Monday for ABC or any network but I'm not sure Thursday results are indicative of the remaining nights of the week.

Spot said...

The Scandal number is 0.05 below last season's average. As long as it and Murder stabilize from here, it's certainly a win. Grey's could be just close enough that if cast contract issues emerge, it could end up a victim of The Mork & Mindy Curse after all.

I suppose the handful of people who watched Bad Judge liked it, for at least one more week. That said, I can't see Kate Walsh's network of employment being NBC, even if it just keeps holding. (if it improbably starts to build, then we'll talk) A To Z definitely won't get to Z, and maybe not even to D. Parenthood is Parenthood - there's a reason why NBC kept it as long as they did, and a reason why it's going after this year.

It appears that at least a quarter of the people who watched the Gracepoint pilot decided not to proceed w/ the series. I wonder if it's an issue of format as much as it is creative juice - after all, I don't think this would exist if Broadchurch had drawn big this side of the Atlantic. At least Bones isn't adding to Fox's heartburn beyond the idea of a 1.5 average being the network's new reality.

I'm guessing people still don't like the way Vampire Diaries is going. Interest in Re-IGN season two seems about as low as last week.

Spot said...

That would be bad news, indeed. FOX can ill afford to shed even tiny fractions of a ratings point.

Spot said...

The main cast of Grey's Anatomy signed two-year deals to carry them through the 2015-2016 season. So contract issues should not be a thing this go around.

Spot said...

Ok. Thanks for the clue-in. Given that, I suppose the ratings would have to be the deciding factor in the continuation of The Curse.

Spot said...

SHIELD ON 10/7/14:
M18-34: 1.2
M18-49: 1.9
M25-54: 2.4


GOTHAM ON 10/6/14:
M18-34: 2.2
M18-49: 2.8
M25-54: 3.0

Spot said...

It would certainly seem that Parenthood is no Desperate Housewives in that regard, then.

Spot said...

Oh thanks a lot for these! Any regular source I could use to get them? Thanks!!

Spot said...

haha I guess me! I have access to them, but don't post often. I'll try to add them in the comment sections on Monday and Tuesdays if I have time from now.

Spot said...

Good line. Sooner or later, a Hispanic-themed show has got to properly break out, surely? I guess Rob got the numbers because of its slot...


It's a better fit than The Neighbors, and it likely has its own audience, so I'll take a punt at Over. Wouldn't be at all surprised to miss.

Spot said...

cancel (confident)

Spot said...

I'm genuinely surprised that people who watched the pilot of Bad Judge stuck around, and, after watching the second episode, I'll be even more surprised if they stick around for episode three. Still, the hold has bought it and A to Z a little more time, especially given TBL's struggles.

Spot said...

The ABC adjustments are over. None of the TGIT shows adjusted up the the finals.

Spot said...

Shows like Modern Family, Agents of Shield, Grey's Antomy, Scandal, and Shark Tank were all regular adjusters before March, so I don't think their success will be lessened too much. The show most likely to take a beating here is Ressurection as it's 2.2 and 1.8 look way worse than a 2.5 and 2.2

Spot said...

The way I understand in, many ABC airings will adjust down. They said
Small amounts of viewing for some national broadcast networks and syndicators were misattributed. Cable networks and local TV ratings were not affected by this error.

for sake of argument, let's say some ABC show was adjusted up by 0.2.
Then IT WAS:
+0.2 ABC
0.0 CBS
0.0 NBC
0.0 netlets Fox and CW; syndicators

While it SHOULD BE:
+0.5 ABC
+0.5 CBS
+0.5 NBC
+0.5 netlets Fox and CW; syndicators

Adjustment after recalculation:
-1.5 ABC
+0.5 CBS
+0.5 NBC
+0.5 others


So I'd expect following:
ABC - many shows to be adjusted a tenth down, some even two tenths.
CBS and NBC - few shows adjusted a tenth up, heavy hitters like TBBT or Voice maybe two
other networks - occasional adjustment up. Like Red Band Society that had 1.34 in premiere to go up to 1.4, but American Dad! finale on Fox that got 1.46 to remain at 1.5, as it already barely get 1.5.

Spot said...

Wouldn't call Scandal a regular adjuster. Only adjusted up 4 times last year.

Spot said...

Under. LMS 0.9 Christela 0.8

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

If I understand Nielsen's press release correctly, Wednesday's final ratings are accurate since the software glitch had been fixed prior to the release of Wednesday's finals. ABC was the only network to see upward adjustments on everything except Nashville. So go figure.

Furthermore, Nielsen claims that the 98-99% of the revised shows will only see an adjustment of 0.05 which, if the case, could only result in in a possible one tenth adjustment for some but not all shows due to the original finals rounding. If all of these shows are on ABC or any network, I can't see how a 0.05 downward adjustment could be that significant unless I am missing something. Nielsen didn't give any figure for the remaining 2% of adjustments. Assuming they are larger than 0.05, 2% represents something less than 1 hour of programming impacted over the last two weeks of 42 hours of prime time..

Spot said...

cancel confident

Spot said...

I'd go Under. LMS maybe drops to 1.1 tonight as a lead-in to Cristela.

Spot said...

Originally, had to contract the amount of data I posted at Marc's site in order to fit those web pages. But I can begin including those male/female demos for network shows again but in a new display format -- I didn't receive any finals for male/females for 10/9 but the next date I do, I'll post.

Spot said...

It was late summer. I'll look to post M18-34s for this Sunday next week. At least we know this data will be correct. :)

Spot said...

Almost forgot about this.

Cancel (confident) This and its companion piece will be gone before you know it, but Selfie might have a little more time hanging on.

Spot said...

Thanks a lot.

The thing is, I have a feeling Brooklyn Nine-Nine is nicely fitting into animation domination block. Meaning, from some scattered data it looks B99 Sunday episodes are "properly" skewing - young and male, and maybe even very similar to lead-in and lead-out. Only problem is viewership is some 20% too low for it to be called really good fit.
Which is kinda moot point - if it actually was 20+% stronger, then Fox likely would leave B99 on Tuesday to anchor the night.

Spot said...

Unforgettable cancelled. Then my money is on CBS planning summer Sunday schedule to be:
Big Brother / The Amazing Race / Zoo .

Spot said...

In M18-34, B99 did a 3.4/11 on 9/28 and a 2.0/6 on 10/5.

To further detail Mulaney as a flop, in M18-34, it drew exactly half of B99 -- a 1.0/3 (out of Family Guy's 2.6).

Spot said...

It's possible that a disproportionate number of the "bigger than 0.05" adjustment fixes will be applied to ABC's fall programming.

Spot said...

True but if the Nielsen press release is accurate, those potentially bigger adjustments impact only one or two percent of all affected programming. Where this Nielsen fiasco gets even more complicated is that daytime ratings from early AM (Good Morning America) to the evening news programming (and I assume all post prime time late night as well) are included in those hours potentially to be adjusted. Interestingly, both ABC's Good Morning America and World News Tonight (evening) have been regularly beating former ratings winner, NBC lately which has been a very big deal for both networks, especially as ABC has made significant anchor changes to both shows. This could reverse ABC's current morning and evening news fortunes, too, depending on the depth of these adjustments. I especially feel bad for ABC but also understand the anger this must have engendered at the other networks as well since none of them did anything wrong here I have no clue how much of a 24 hour day is comprised of pure network feed television (15 hours? 20 hours?) but I believe it is all open to possible revisions now, not just 3 hours of prime time.. Nielsen giveth and they taketh. This debacle could lead all the networks and advertisers to ultimately seek out the services of a Nielsen competitor like Rentrak.

Spot said...

Well, more correctly, any software glitch induced upward adjustments are hopefully over but not actual earned upward adjustments, especially for a handful of ABC shows that routinely adjusted up last season and in previous seasons. And while tonight's lack of ABC adjustments seems too much of a coincidence, it is only speculation at this point to say the software glitch fix was the definitive reason. We don't even know with any certainty yet whether ABC is the sole beneficiary of inflated ratings since the same software is used across all networks. However, tonight it was especially nice to see FOX receiving some good ratings news, however small even though Bones adjusting up in it's senior years does seem like an oddity.. .

Spot said...

Interestingly, this came a day after Rentrak announced a deal to buy the US ratings measurement arm of British company Kantar Media. That sent their stock prices rocketing; surprisingly, there wasn't a further leap in Friday trading following the Nielsen glitch announcement.

Spot said...

Oh thank you so much. That's really kind of you and I really appreciate you taking the time to do it and to care about it enough to help us out! Thanks a lot!

Spot said...

Sure! And you're welcome to play in my daily TV ratings game too at Berman's site anytime. :)

Spot said...

Rentrak would lose a huge opportunity if they didn't leverage this Nielsen mess. I bet they are pouring gasoline on this software glitch fire, planting seed of doubt among broadcasters and advertisers that Nielsen can't be trusted. Whether Rentrak would be a better/more reliable option remains to be seen. While Nielsen will surely downplay this problem as statistically small errors, I have to believe this has severely harmed their credibility, perhaps even irreparably. Prior to the revelation of this problem, there has been growing dissatisfaction among those in the television and advertising industry with Nielsen and their supposed inability to adapt to the new, disparate television viewing habits emerging. I don't know if there are better alternatives available than Nielsen at the moment. One thing is clear, the networks are fighting hand over fist for even the smallest of fractional ratings. I'm not sure streaming services like Amazon, Hulu and Netflix will be able to keep too much of the ratings challenged programming alive on the networks forever. Both fans and detractors of Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, claim he has more bucks than brains, so who knows? Maybe we'll see several spinoffs of Extant just because Amazon says so :)

You always have interesting things to say, David.

Spot said...

"Elsewhere, it was another Friday night of Shark Tank (1.9) and then a huge drop to everything else"

This made me laugh. Spot could safely use this sentence to summarize nearly every Friday.

Spot said...

Cancel, confident

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (conflident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident) Poor Karen and John.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

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