Thursday, October 9, 2014

First Two Weeks, Manhattan Love Story


WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.5
Lead-in: Selfie (1.6)
Competition: NCIS (2.6 overall, 2.7 at 8:30), The Voice (4.1 overall, 4.1 at 8:30), Utopia (0.8 overall, 0.8 at 8:30), iHeartRadio Music Festival (0.4 overall, 0.4 at 8:30).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 0.9 (-40%)
Lead-in: Selfie (1.2)
Competition: NCIS (2.6 overall), The Voice recap (2.5 overall), Family Guy (R) (0.9 overall), The Flash (1.9 overall).

Will this show get a second season? You make the call!

To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.

These choices must be locked by Wednesday, October 15 at 6:00 am ET.

3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.

34 comments:

Spot said...

Please adjust up, Arrow. I can't handle the humiliation of missing two CW Questions in a row.

Spot said...

Please Arrow, adjust up! For the sake of the question and, more importantly, because I want it to be higher than that, it deserves it!

Elsewhere, ABC is ruling Wednesdays and Black-ish just got renewed. I expect a backorder for it and Murder any moment now. It really wasn't that hard to get it right, it's only surprising it took them so damn long. By the way, how is Nashville running close to even? That might be in PLUS, no? In raw numbers, I have it at -18%, though this episode was only down 11%. Regardless, the show is surprising me. I said before that I thought it was undervalued last year due to the horrific and incompatible lead-ins it was getting and though there probably wasn't a lot of strength there, there probably wasn't that much weakness either, but it is actually doing even better than I thought.

Spot said...

Arrow 1.0 is good, but definitely not great.

But Black-ish did great. It might adjust down (or rather, surprisingly not adjust up despite being on ABC) because there was Modern Family overrun, plus last week's episode was inches from 2.7 (at 2.64 if the number I found somewhere is correct), so sitcom might not be as much up as it looks now... but going up in 3rd episode is nevertheless huge positive for any new show.

Red Band Society 0.9, sadly, I think it's still enough for it to stay on Wednesday. Simply because Fox has nothing to replace it with. But two tenths lower, and they'll be forced to pull it. They certainly don't want it starts losing to The 100, so people make even more fun of Fox.

CBS 10 PM weekday. Not good, to put it mildly.
NCIS: LA: 1.9 -> 1.6
Person of Interest: 1.7 -> 1.8 -> 1.6
NCIS: LA: 2.0 -> 1.7

Then I'll go out on a limb, and already now predict Elementary returns with 1.8-1.9, and scores 1.6-1.7 in 2nd week.

Anyway, other than Stalker, those 10 PM shows have some syndication value, so... Goodbye, Stalker. I hope Your ratings doesn't drop much more, so You would air all 13 episodes on Wednesday. If not, Saturday is nice timeslot too. Is not, I'm just being polite.

Spot said...

Where are you getting the unrounded numbers? I haven't been able to find them this season and they make a huge difference particularly for the CW (and now.. FOX? lol)

Spot said...

Sitcomsonline blog posts it. But weekly, not daily. Example:
http://blog.sitcomsonline.com/2014/10/week-2-tv-ratings-and-analysis-how.html
I can only hope those are accurate numbers.

Spot said...

I meant this episode (1.5, which adjusted up last week) vs. episode 3 last year (1.6 on 10/9/14). Yes, it's still down a lot for the season, though this was the first week its lead-in wasn't much smaller than last year.

Spot said...

The premiere of the Goldbergs was a solid 2.4, but it was -23% from the big Shield fueled premiere last year. Week 2 was a good 2.3, which was up a tick from week 2 in season 1, and cut the y2y decline to -11%. This week, even barring probably adjustments, it is up 16% from the year ago 1.9 and the y2y trend is now a mere -4%!

Spot said...

Got it thanks.

Spot said...

Blackist did great! From reading all the War posts, it seems solid premiere, big drop, bounce back is quite a common 3 week trajectory for shows. Anyways, I can't confirm this, but that has to be the best retention in week three of a Modern lead out since week three of Cougar Town!

Spot said...

Extremely impressive!

Spot said...

The Middle pairing clearly helped, but it also has crazy stepped up creatively wise. The pilot was all sorts of mess, but last night's episode was the best one I've seen yet

Spot said...

Conslation of Stalker's poor ratings. It's currently outrating Maggie Q's last show's final season ratings by 754% in the demo. Not many people can say that. Sarah Michelle Geller did something similar with Ringer -> Crazy Ones. Christin Milioti is doing the opposite with HIMYM to A to Z (5.4 HIMYM finale, 1.2 A to Z premiere)

Spot said...

If American Horror Story: Freak Show launched big, then Stalker's drop isn't that bad since the competition went up. Still, being in a race with Madam Secretary for 3rd place on CBS' new drama totem pole isn't good at all.

The Goldbergs continues to do a great job at improving its own year-to-year trend as well as improving the Wednesday at 8:30 slot. It and black-ish are helping ABC get back to that Middle/Suburgatory/Modern Family/Happy Endings block that was well-loved and rated (especially in the Fall). Too bad it's a season late. And even if Nashville holds steady at this level a replacement drama still has too much upside to ignore. Giving it the split-season treatment, if it has to come back before Summer 2015, is just the better option.

Credit has to be given to SVU for at least not dropping off the ratings cliff. If it holds steady at its current level it'll start to make up more ground year-to-year (at least until the mini-spikes of the Save Benson plot enter the comparison range). I thought it'd take a hit from not having a similarly-promotable arc and facing a Love injection on Criminal Minds but that's not the case yet.

Spot said...

The ABC comedy block is looking very nice right now.

Arrow better adjust up!

Spot said...

Thank you so much. I've been looking for those for quite a while now!

Spot said...

ABC Comedy block year to year trend:
- Week 1: -14% (vs. double MF episode)
- Week 2: -10% (vs. Super Fun Night initially high rated premiere)
- Week 3: -3%... before adjustments.

Almost closing the gap!!

Spot said...

ABC's undoing will probably be Nashville. Though it's holding up better than expected, it certainly is no Revenge Season 1.

Spot said...

CBS surprisingly renewed Extant. As expected, they cancelled Reckless, and renewed Under The Dome.
They ordered new "limited" drama Zoo ("based on James Patterson's bestselling novel") for next summer already before.
No word about Unforgettable, but that's Sony, and 2 renewed are CBS Productions / Amazon / Spielberg co-production. I mean, that's separate talks, nothing can be read from Unforgettable not being renewed in this batch. Multiple options are still in play for summer Sunday 9-11 PM:
1. Zoo / Unforgettable
2. The Amazing Race / Zoo (if Unforgettable is cancelled)
3. The Amazing Race / Unforgettable; with Zoo somewhere else (Tuesday 10 PM?)

Spot said...

With both Under the Dome and Extant picked up, and Zoo in the mix, I think one of two things will happen:

1. An original show is going to lead out of Big Brother on Thursdays at 10:00.
2. A new show will land on Tuesdays somewhere to give CBS original content across all 5 weeknights. 10:00 PM feels most likely to not disrupt NCIS: New Orleans' summer (re)run, Person of Interest may be on shaky ground come May, and a new show dodges America's Got Talent in the later hour.

The latter's case would be helped if Unforgettable also gets a renewal, and hopefully The Amazing Race gets another pick-up, too. I'd really like a BB/Amazing Race pairing on either Sunday or Thursday.

Spot said...

Yeah, that was my thoughts about Tuesday too. 10 PM to keep NCIS x 2 paired during summer too, plus shaky Person of Interest might easily air on weekend night next fall anyway. Only my comment was already too long, so I skipped it.

Spot said...

To be fair, Revenge is no "Revenge Season 1", due to its premise-limited nature.

Spot said...

AMC is airing yet another The Walking Dead marathon, they aired 4-minutes sneak peak in between two episodes, yesterday at 9 PM. It earned 1.17 in A18-49 with 2.41 mill. total viewers.

Spot said...

That's the best premiere or finale Arrow has hung since the series premiere, even if it doesn't get the adjustment I need to win The Question. I'm sure the CW is at least somewhat happy w/ that, given the arc that seasons one and two have followed.

Also happy - ABC. Black-ish does indeed appear to have the resilience necessary to plug that big gaping gash post-Modern Family, w/ Goldbergs continuing to do the same post-Middle. Now maybe they can cut off the sore in the 10pm hour and get a drama that isn't borderline. And then maybe ABC can actually leave well enough alone next year.

I hope Dead Band Society has signed its will. (couldn't resist. Not sorry. Not even sorry about not being sorry.)

The Stalker drop would be less worrying[*] if it hadn't already started at a mediocre number. I know the Bear says its "technically" safe, but that always assumes it doesn't keep trickling down. (or go into a nosedive)

[*for CBS' sake; I and the rest of the hatedom will be glad to see it keep going down]

Spot said...

Problem is Stalker will be CBS's top 10 PM show. Seeing as LA and POI had a 1.6. Unless Blue Bloods or CSI shoot up half a point

Spot said...

Well, if you you're up for a side bet - I say Stalker will be the worst rated Monday to Thursday CBS 10 PM shot.
Rookie show always fall more throughout the season than veterans, it's simply as that.

Spot said...

Interested to see what NBC does with The Mysteries of Laura. It skews very old and gets no DVR boost, but its raw numbers aren't horrible and it seems to be helping SVU.

I think the network could justify any outcome: cutting their losses after 13, giving it a back-order to keep a difficult slot stable through the season, or giving it a timeslot upgrade and seeing if it manages to find any monentum.

Perhaps its best hope is if Marry Me/About a Boy tank. That would leave NBC with 3 hours to fill, provide a clear timeslot upgrade, and NBC likely doesn't want all their fall premieres to be dead just a few weeks into the season.

Spot said...

I could see that at this point. The others have some sort of thing going for them that would seem to draw some unknown if admittedly small audience, whether it's actually being good (Elementary, POI) or simply being tied to a franchise (NCIS:LA). Stalker basically has exploitative fear-mongering and misogyny, and the drop seems to suggest that even the Minds audience is about as interested in two hours of that as they were when the Suspect Behavior spinoff died back in 2011.

Spot said...

Is there a comparison to last year?

Also, does one suppose that Walking Dead might be getting a tad overexposed, given the use of "yet another" in the commentary?

Spot said...

Comparison? Dunno if there's.

Overexposed? I am, for like season and a half. People? I don't know, but I seriously doubt. Just give 'em olle smash and run with zombie heads flying all around... and they'll watch it en masse for a decade more, I think.

Spot said...

I meant this week. It's actually a good bet. Elementary finished with a mere 1.4 last year. With the freakin' McCarthy's as a lead in and HTGAWM as competition, it might do worse than Stalker

Spot said...

Most fans of Criminal Minds are interested in the characters, not the crimes. Without that Stalker and Suspect Behavior aren't that desirable.

Spot said...

Maybe not a "decade", but I could see at least another season or two before the growth finally stops, and a few more after that before it finally stops being profitable for AMC.

Spot said...

And they might have wrapped it up before then, as cable hits tend to wrap up earlier than their broadcast life cycle would end (of course, there's never been a cable hit like this).

Spot said...

Yes, and that's one reason why I could see it going for a good while yet, possibly long enough to get to that point, especially since the nature of the premise and storyline don't require a finite time period the way many other cable shows have.

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