Thursday, October 30, 2014

The Question, Thursday 10/30/14: Will Mom Be the Mother of All Big Bang Lead-outs?


Yes, CBS has a series premiere on the opening Thursday for its entertainment lineup, but I think the more intriguing piece of Question fodder is the show CBS is actually bothering to put directly after its biggest series. Sophomore comedy Mom had a respectable but mostly unassuming first season airing after modest lead-ins 2 Broke Girls and Mike and Molly. Tonight, it's back with a lead-in that should be at least 50% higher than anything it ever had last season. The pairing seemed to have some promise in summer repeats, but those passive viewing situations can exaggerate compatibility. Will Mom be the mother of all Big Bang lead-outs? That's The Question for Thursday, October 30, 2014.

Mom Last Season and Recent Big Bang Lead-Outs
2.5/2.09/1.9 (Mom premiere/avg/finale)
3.3/2.63/2.3 (The Millers premiere/avg/finale)
3.1 -> 2.9 -> 2.8 (8:30 Big Bang repeats this season)
2.1 (The Millers last week (4.6 BBT))

I don't think CBS would have pulled Mom from its original September premiere date if they thought it would do at least as well as the Big Bang repeats that boosted the early weeks of Scorpion. But I also don't think they would bother with putting it on Thursday if they expected Millers-esque numbers and no long-term benefit. So Mom may not do quite as well as a brand new series premiere, but it should outrate the series that had a full year for TBBT viewers to sample and move away from. I expect it to at least eke out a series high.

Mom Over/Under: 2.75.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

50 comments:

Spot said...

Under with 2.5.


And just for the sake of completeness, I say that The McCarthys ends up with 1.9.

Spot said...

Glad that you went for what is clearly the most interesting question, I agree entirely!


I am going with an optimistic over, 2.9.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Agreed that it should return to a series high, I'll be a bit disappointed if it doesn't at least manage that.

Just plugged in a (potentially optimistic) calculation, 60% retention from TBBT doing a 4.6 would be 2.76.. risky, but I want to go over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under, with a 2.5-2.6

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I think the most ridiculous thing is the biggest lead in Mom had last year was a 2.8 from the 2 Broke Girls premiere. The likes of the Millers and We Are Men's SMALLEST lead in was a 2.8 from a Big Bang repeat and a 3.1 from an original HIMYM.
Look at the series premiere lead in divide here:
The Big Bang Theory (6.1) - The Crazy Ones (3.9) (64%)
How I Met Your Mother (5.4) - Friends With Better Lives (2.6) (48%)
The Big Bang Theory (5.2) - The Milers (3.3) (63%)
2 Broke Girls (2.8) - Mom (2.5) (89%)
Two and a Half Men (2.5) - Bad Teacher (2.1) (84%)

Spot said...

OVER
It has a great compatible lead in and much less competition than Mondays at 8:30. The strongest show is

Spot said...

Under.

Mom being stronger than Millers or The Crazy Ones doesn't mean it's actually strong show.

Spot said...

I'm gonna change my guess to OVER.

Spot said...

Reverting to pessimistic type here, Under.

Spot said...

Over 2.75!

Spot said...

OVER

Spot said...

Over. But with very little confidence.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Fascinating question that I've wondered about since The Millers started showing crap retention a year ago.


Um...under.

Spot said...

Over at 2.9.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Unofficial McCarthys Question:

The final new show for the fall season is upon us. The McCarthys is the only new comedy on CBS this fall, and it has a lot to prove. Mike & Molly and The Odd Couple have great things going for them in midseason (22 episodes, established, and the biggest comedienne on the planet for the former, and a popular movie and sitcom remake that's owned by CBS for the latter). And the last time there was only one new comedy, it was canceled as well (Partners). Meanwhile, it's airing after Two and a Half Men, which lead-ins last season were canceled. But the final season push could very well give support to both series, and with three shows that seem compatible enough for it could make it eke out a decent premiere. Can The McCarthys get lucky?

2.1/1.46/1.1 (Bad Teacher Thursday premiere/average/finale)

4.6 (Big Bang Theory's last premiere)

2.9/2.27/2.1 (Two and a Half Men premiere/average/finale)

I don't expect much from the series. It seems to only be around since How I Met Your Dad bombed and Odd Couple has behind-the-scenes issues. And no post-Big Bang premiere isn't a sign of confidence either. But even We Are Men getting over a 2.0 shows that something could happen.

The McCarthys Over/Under: 2.35

Spot said...

Over. There's plenty of scatter audience since FOX & NBC have surrendered the night, and ABC pulled Grey's.

Spot said...

Oh yeah, Over.

Spot said...

Over. FOX & NBC & CW are even weaker at 9pm.

Spot said...

Under at 2.3


Shakes my head no matter how terrible multicams have been, their floor is always 2.0.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under with 2.2. It looks like a copy of The Millers (which itself is already struggling).

Spot said...

I think I've been going over too much... But I'm going to do it again! Over.

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Where were you when Sean Saves the World aired?

Spot said...

Sorry, I should've said CBS multicams.

Spot said...

OVER.

CBS is pushing its return tonight.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Somehow, I don't think Fox envisioned Disgracepoint pulling "surrender" numbers when they ordered the "10-episode event series".

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I love Mom. I want it to thrive after BBT. I don't know if it will. It could get a series high and still not make 2.8. But with the so minimal competition (not even Grey's), I think it could get a real sample. Over.

Spot said...

Over, 2.8

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I actually think ABC pulling Grey's Anatomy for It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown is genius. It'll do approximately what Grey's would pull but it's more likely to target the same audience that would watch Mom.

That being said, I think much like in the Gotham vs Scorpion Question or The Crazy Ones vs The Michael J Fox Show Question, a The Big Bang Theory lead-in has to count for something.


Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

After 6 ET but before any numbers come out... Under.

Spot said...

Overnights have it up 27% from the season premiere. If it skewed the same that would he a 3.2, which is better than all put 2 episodes of The Millers. Even if skewed older it should be enough to break a 2.8

Spot said...

Whoops, I just found out that The McCarthys is a single-cam. But I think it will go over anyway.

Spot said...

I just found out The McCarthys is a single-cam, but I think the night for CBS will be pretty big and carry it over the line.

Spot said...

Yeah, because it would've done so much better against The Voice. Also, I think it's perfectly on brand, in that when Fox does these short order series, they're always about leering at the awfulness of humanity.

Spot said...

OMG I used to give a damn about Gracepoint enough to comment. What a horrible monster I was.

Spot said...

I'm a worse monster. I'm still watching Gracepoint even though it's putrid garbage. (even if I keep doing that way too much for my own personal comfort)

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