Thursday, October 23, 2014

First Two Weeks, Cristela


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 1.3
Lead-in: Last Man Standing (1.2)
Competition: The Amazing Race (1.1 overall, 1.1 at 8:30), A to Z (R) (0.5), Utopia (0.7 overall, 0.6 at 8:30), Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) (0.5).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 1.2 (-8%)
Lead-in: Last Man Standing (1.3)
Competition: The Amazing Race (1.4 overall, 1.4 at 8:30), About a Boy (R) (0.6), Utopia (0.7 overall, 0.6 at 8:30), Jane the Virgin (R) (0.3 overall, 0.3 at 8:30).

Will this show get a second season? You make the call!

To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.

These choices must be locked by Saturday, October 25 at 6:00 am ET.

3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.

72 comments:

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

I was dreading this one because I really have no clue here. Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

If ABC cuts comedy blocks down to 3 hours next season, I'm 100% sure. If they don't... not 100% sure, but damn close to it.
Because Cristela is already at 74 in A18-49+ after two episodes. And if it gets 1.1 this week, after 3 episodes it will be at 71. That's exactly where Last Man Standing was at the end of last season. It was renewed, but it was 3rd year show with 66+ episodes under belt, yet it was renewed only after tough negotiations.

I see Cristela in 60s in A18-49+, which is between 1.00 and 1.15 season average. Where in that range? It depends mostly on if it will get 13, 16 or 22 episodes. Irony is, more episodes it gets, lower will be average ratings, and with it chances for renewal.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

In order of likeliness of renewal I see ABC comedies as
1. Modern Family
2. The Golbergs
3. The Midde
4. Blackish
5. Last Man Standing
6. Cristela

Spot said...

Cancel (confident).


I'm going to bet ABC is not going to keep comedies on fridays next season.

Spot said...

I'm going to tentatively say Renew (Not Confident). I wouldn't be terribly surprised if TGIF ends this year, but I can see it continuing. I would be pretty surprised if this didn't get some sort of extension. ABC will probably change up Tuesdays before something happens on Friday

Spot said...

Regarding Laura, I don't think it has been doing well, but yesterday I felt like it did okayish. Down 4% from Revolution is Up in plus quite a bit. As for SVU, the comparison is a bit tricky because while the show is down a lot using its full ratings from last year, comparing only the 9pm hour is practically even, down only 3% from last year.


My point was not that they were doing incredibly well, but that managing to be up 23% on a night they didn't even invest that much isn't a bad performance at all, even if most of the improvement does come from the Ironside comparisons. Still, all hours UP in Plus is a good result!

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident), it's crap that Cristela's ratings have been advertised as being "strong" (*glares at TVBN*) when in reality the first two episodes have been at "passable for Friday" levels and are bound to drop naturally as all shows do after they first begin. If it was even a tenth of two lower it'd be at "The Neighbors" level which everyone last year deemed as "horrible".

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

I was aiming to avoid the 'not confident' options but, this is the least confident I've felt so far.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Thanks!

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)
It's doing pretty well with what it's been given, but I don't think that is enough with Fresh on the Boat just waiting to be paired with LMS.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

Renew (Confident) I think it will stay within a few tenths of Last Man Standing, which is all ABC can ask of it.

Spot said...

Cancel (Not confident)

Spot said...

Rookie Blue would still do better than reruns of Grey's Anatomy or Scandal, so I don't see ABC backing out of airing season 5B. And Rookie Blue was only a tenth or so behind more expensive and higher-profile Rising Star. This show only ends when ABC's asked to pony up more money or the show's Canadian ratings drop too low.

Spot said...

Renew (not confident)

Spot said...

Huh. One of the few shows where answers are running the gamut. And it kind of makes sense. Cristela's been a big improvement over The Neighbors (although that wasn't too big of an ask really), and it's paired well with Last Man Standing so far. But these levels are great and Last Man Standing's renewal was as difficult for ABC & 20th Century Fox to negotiate as Nashville's was for ABC & Lionsgate. It reminds me of how Sony leveraged The Blacklist into convincing NBC to picking up season 5 of Community and newbies Welcome to the Family & The Night Shift. But in this case the leverage was Cristela and Fresh off the Boat meaning that ABC's higher on those shows.


My answer isn't so much wrapped up in the ratings (which are more acceptable for a new, cheaper show than something more pricey like LMS) and more in the intangibles: ABC's push for diversity on its schedule and Paul Lee's past comments about wanting some kind of TGIF block.


Renew (Not Confident)

Spot said...

Closest thing to a pure toss-up we're going to get. And week three won't be telling unless it's a big move.

Cancel (Not Confident). Backing LMS being 88-and-out and TGIF giving way to unscripted programming, possibly a 20:20/Shark Tank/Beyond the Tank lineup.)

Spot said...

cancel confident

Spot said...

The advertising on that site for Cristela, plus that narrative, suggests that ownership change really has made a difference there. That makes this place even more valuable than it already was.

Spot said...

I've gone intangibles the other way, so we at least agree that these numbers have the hallmarks of a toss-up!

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

I was going to hedge my bets, but I get the feeling that TGIF won't be around next year, with LMS not needing any more episodes for syndication. It'll likely get a full season (I think Fresh Off The Boat finds a way to air after Modern Family at some point), but that'll be that.

Spot said...

Notes after finals:
Impressive for Criminal Minds! Going up for the last 2 weeks. I guess JLH isn't pushing away fans
Great for the Middle and Goldbergs! Goldbergs is up now 2% y2y! I wonder how it and Blacklish would do switched.

Spot said...

Seconded, dude. America's idiotic ignorance/dismissal of this show should not be allowed to stand.

And keep in mind, that's a 180 flip from where I was when it premiered and I called it the stupidest show I was ever about to give at least six episodes to to get better[*]. In fact, in my estimation it didn't even really get good enough to justify that in those six eps - but because the timeslot was empty, I continued on, and then it suddenly got really compelling around episode nine, for no apparent reason.



[*that number came about because Dan Fienberg had watched that many and I decided to give it my own due diligence to see why he aborted the "Angry Dan" version of his review, something he'd specifically mentioned in the review that ran at HitFix. People who know me know I usually have my own rule for genre shows, called "3 or out", which is basically what it sounds like - if your pilot bores me or pisses me off, you have two more episodes to get better or I bail (if I let it past that point, I don't considering bailing again until the end of the first season, even if I don't like it). Had I used it, I would've bailed after Wells' death, and the manner in which it occurred, pissed me off more than anything in the pilot.]


And season two definitely continued the upward trend. Although I have my share of reservations about specific character arcs, I gotta say the truth about Mount Weather is more than a little intriguing, and the show upending the status quo the way it did is refreshing.

Spot said...

I hope they pick Re-IGN, so I can keep making that joke.

Spot said...

There's also the fact that 24 didn't move to that model until season 4. Seasons one through three operated on the standard fall to late spring scheduling. (well, season one premiered in November, but that usually got treated the same as premiering in September back then, especially w/ regards to Fox, and their baseball hiatuses)

Spot said...

Oh, dear lord.

The queen of The CW? Even if we were judging it on its creative merits, it wouldn't be the Queen - it would be the Court Jester, cause Travis Yanan is right - that show is garbage.

Spot said...

They certainly play it like it's an exhibition game. Even if I only have one game to base it off of. And even if that involved a team that's been incredibly erratic this season.

Spot said...

"Who stalks the stalkers" indeed.

But that's probably not low enough relative to the rest of CBS' lineup to justify the cancellation.

Spot said...

I think CBS ordered it to series on the day of the office gas leak. I watched the backdoor and I could tell right off that it would be a mistake to order CSeye: Ceyeber to series.

Spot said...

Remember NYC 2-2?

That's ok, no one else does either.

It aired Sundays @ 10.

After one ep, its ratings were a 0.51 on the Index.

Spot said...

They're not expecting anything out of it. They're ashamed of the bad choices made on pot brownie day at the office.

Spot said...

Renew confident

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)


This is the time that we let it go
And this is the pain we are forced to know
Singing the song that's inside, inside us all

Spot said...

Would reruns really only do a 0.6-0.7 at this point? I thought they were still capable of doing circa-1.0s.

Spot said...

Cancel (Not Confident)

It's probably gonna be canceled anyway, but I see a small chance tor a renewal case here...

Spot said...

We'll probably never find out.

I recall a NASCAR team owner (specifically, Ron Devine of BK Racing) talking of veterans "working themselves into a certain pattern", which would probably be the case here - that is, it would be negligible growth on its own summer numbers and a lot lower than what Castle gets behind Dancing.

Spot said...

Of course she isn't. And it's the same reason people watched Ghost Whisperer for five seasons.

Spot said...

There was some big backlash by fans following the announcement. I'm glad it was just a small vocal minority

Spot said...

There's always backlash, though. Everything that ever happens will get backlash. That's what the idiots who piled on NASCAR driver Josh Wise for getting voted into the Sprint All-Star Race taught me.

It's all about what happens next that makes the difference. What happened next here seems to have been that people who watch liked the Hewitt character.



In contrast to NCIS, which I think is suffering for the Bishop character being poorly written. (I've actually bailed on CBS Tuesdays @ 8 this season, for the first time since 1997, thanks to both the NCIS issues and the awesomeness of The Flash)

Spot said...

cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

All these "not confident" answers make me think it's a lock for renewal.

Spot said...

Renew, not confident!

Spot said...

At this point, not much if anything. I agree with James' assessment. If it had happened in season 2, then it'd be a different story.

Spot said...

Other than NCIS and Criminal Minds, I can't think of a broadcast drama that can rerun and crest a 1.x more than 50% of the time in the summer.

Spot said...

Renew (Confident). Diversity was a keystone of ABC's upfront presentation this year so I think it is highly likely they will nurture this for at least one more season and beyond unless the ratings take a hard turn south. Creating programming that highlights the fastest growing ethnic group in America is sound business and can engender Disney/ABC brand loyalty among Hispanic families.

Spot said...

I agree with that. Though I am not sure how I would feel about them messing with OUAT this season when it's actually working wonderfully on Sundays now. Last year I would have been all for them trying to get a solution for the collapse the show was suffering but now I am not sure it would be worth the risk.

Spot said...

Yeah you are probably right that the split season very rigid structure is to blame here for the odd scheduling.

By the way, did you see that ABC is preempting Grey's next week while having officially given it the 24 episode order it usually gets? I don't like them messing with TGIT to be honest, I don't see the point, but maybe at year's end I will have changed my mind when I see what their plans are. It just seems odd to me that they keep preempting 8pm hours that are working (Middle/Goldbergs, now Greys) instead of using all those specials to preempt the 8pm hour that isn't working (Selfie and MLS).

Elsewhere, Resurrection has also been confirmed to have 15 episodes, Castle 23 and all the Wednesday comedies 24, though that doesn't really change anything, except telling us that The Middle/The Goldbergs will probably air a night in which there is no MF/Blakckish to make up for the previous preemption.

Spot said...

They've pushed a drama to summer last year when they could have used it to plug the 8pm Friday hole or the Mondays 10pm Friday hole. Sure it was essentially a burnoff but there is precedent for it.


Besides, I am not really sure if something so off brand like Battle Creek would really be better suited in CBS regular season but that's more of a personal opinion.

Spot said...

I think that's true but while I hate to use this argument, I think in CSI's very particular case it also makes sense to consider the other side of the coin which is that it is probably the best seller show worldwide in all international markets, not to mention the god knows how many syndication deals it has. I am usually pretty much against using this type of argument because 1) No numbers to back this up and 2) The amounts that the much smaller international markets can actually generate for the original producers are probably pretty small percentage wise compared with the amounts at stake from ratings, but in CSI case I think it could be meaningful enough to make a difference.

Spot said...

No, per Nellie Andreeva, Resurrection definitely has 13 episodes, as one of show stars already twitted long ago. Nellie posted some other things.
American Crime - 11 episodes, and it might lose Sunday timeslot, she says. She doesn't say would it be demotion to backup role, or promotion to Wednesday 10 PM timeslot.

Agent Carter is 8 episodes.
Cristela is suspiciously absent, but it premiered later than other rookies, so this may not be the final nail in the coffin.

Others are like you said
23 - OUAT
23 - Castle
24 - all Wednesday comedies
22 - SHIELD, Revenge, Nashville
15 - HTGAWM
22 - Scandal
24 - Grey's

They need to rectify Grey's / Scandal episode count at some point. But I'm surprised as much as you. I always assumed they would simply have Scandal finale week earlier, with 2-hours Grey's week after.

Spot said...

I was just about to come back here and correct what I had written, I have also found the deadline article now.

And good point about Cristela, it would have been a good time to announce it. I was also expecting them to up LMS since it will have 86 episodes for syndication at season's end and while that is perfectly fine, it would seem rather easy to give them the usual 88 episodes, especially since it had a double episode premiere. Maybe you are right and they will try to finish the hour rather soon and then put Beyond the Tank there.

Elsewhere, are we to assume now that they will finish Resurrection before Christmas? 13 is an odd order for it in terms of scheduling. The only way I see it working is if they preempt Revenge for two straight and double pump Resurrection. It sounds strange but the alternative is that they bring it back only for two episodes in the new year's. They did bring back Betrayal for 3 last year though, so it's possible I guess. It is also possible that the show has became such an obvious cancellation by then that they simply air the last two episodes December the 21st.

Also curious about them rethinking airing American Crime in that slot. I think it's a positive move because I really don't think that show will work on broadcast TV. The trailer makes it look like a niche cable show that critics love but that audiences just don't embrace and I don't see the fit with Revenge and OUAT at all. Both Astronaut Wives Club or Members Only sound like better fits to me. Where American Crime would go in that scenario though is beyond me.

Spot said...

Yeah not even what we consider solid procedural repeaters such as SVU or Castle can do much better than a 0.6 in the summer nowadays, so I really don't think the serials would even cross the 0.4/0.5 mark.

Comedies on the other hand are a different story. Even a lower priority comedy like LMS is able to pull almost a 1.0 on a Friday when repeated, which is pretty great.

Spot said...

Some month ago Kissan Capers posted in comments here about it, and in lack of better idea, I'll copy/paste what he said:

Resurrection will have a 13 episode Season 2 since one of the stars' Francis Fisher said it on her Twitter account. Here's what I think will happen:
Sept 28-Nov 16: OUAT, Resurrection, Revenge (8 episodes each)
Nov 23: American Music Awards
Nov 30-Dec 14: OUAT, Resurrection, Revenge (3 episodes each)
Dec 21: Christmas Special, Resurrection 2 hr season finale, Ep 12-13

Spot said...

With no more repeats after next week . except for Thanksgiving - Thursday should be:

12/18/2014
Grey's E11 / Scandal E12 / HTGAWM E12

2/26/2015
Grey's E12 / Scandal E13 / HTGAWM E13

3/5/2015
Grey's E13 / HTGAWM E14-15 (2-hours finale)

3/12/2015
Grey's E14 / Scandal E14 / Secrets & Lies E01

5/7/2015
Grey's E22 / Scandal E22 (finale) / S & L E09

5/14/2015 other two finales
Grey's E23-E24 (2-hours finale) / S & L E10

Spot said...

American Crime is on ABC, so I can't imagine it being anything but soapy. Don't put much in what network says about its own product. ABC promoted Scandal as political drama. :rolleyes:


Problem might be quality, though. Here's what Travis Yanan said:
I know John Ridley just won an Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay, but American Crime is the 1st script I refuse to finish.
It is just... bad. In all the ways. All. Dialogue, clunky. Characters, stock. Premise, overdone with nothing new to say.

Spot said...

It's kinda funny how ABC is only putting Charlie Brown in slots of shows with good ratings. The Goldbergs and Grey's Anatomy have a 2.3 and 2.4 in their most recent episodes respectively.
The 24 episode order of Blacklish probably means that it won't end early for Fresh Off The Boat. Cougar Town season 1 was the last show to air all season after Modern. Cougar season 2 had a hiatus for Sunshine. Happy Endings ended early for Apt 23. Subugatory shifted down an hour for How To Give. Super Fun Night ended early for Mixology.

Spot said...

CSI is one of the top international syndicators and does well domestically. This is why I argued CBS produced CSI should have had the 9 o'clock hour. Why does CBS demand that it's "prestige" drama air against cable's prestige drama? No clue.

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

In previous years I thought it was debatable, but this year they had an incentive to do so as the Madam Secretary/ The Good Wife pairing just makes sense. I don't think it's a coincidence that The Good Wife is CBS's scripted programming with the current best year to year trend and second overall only behind Survivor. Madam is probably much more compatible to it than TAR ever was. You put CSI at 9 and TGW at 10 and I could see CSI improving 0.2 or so and TGW loosing 0.5 or so, so they would be worse off I think.

Spot said...

I don't think it's that funny to be honest, I think it's kind of dumb on their part lol. But ABC used to be the dumbest network of them all and had moves that I actually think were hard to come up with for how bad they were (Hello Apartment 23/Private Practice, hello random Mixology repeat as lead-in for Castle, hello every single hangout comedy that aired after Modern Family, hello OUAT/Revenge going up against big events, hello Betrayal and Lucky 7 ever being picked up to series, hello the random airing of the bottom of the hour Wednesday comedies after repeats of the lead-ins, etc etc etc) and this year they have a very good schedule overall (I call it a nearly perfect one except for Tuesdays), so all things considered, them messing with these occasional nights is less hurtful in perspective I guess.

Spot said...

Perhaps laughable is a better term

Spot said...

With that I agree!

Spot said...

Nascar and JAG -- are you still even in the CW demo?

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident). Cristela may get a full season if hold up in the fall, but I don't see the show holding to these numbers until spring (the show may stand a chance of renewal, but I'm not confident).

Spot said...

Part of The Neighbors "horrible" numbers was it was -45%+ y2y almost all year. I also think Selfie and Manhattan Love Story's awful ratings make it look "okay"

Spot said...

Squeaked right over that line at 6.7. Good job.

Spot said...

I'm an old soul who inhabits the body of a member of the 18-24 demographic.

Spot said...

You're welcome! I nudged the line down a couple of times before publication (once after the Chiefs victory and again after the 49ers blowout "only" got an 8.2) and I got it right in the end :)

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