Thursday, October 30, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/29/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Game 7 of the World Series ended up at 6.6, up an incredible 89% from Game 6. This helped to somewhat salvage an otherwise horribly-rated Series, putting its viewership average just ahead of the previous low series average from 2012. (Although the 2012 Series was just four games...)
    • The CW survived its Chicago pre-emption almost unscathed, with Arrow holding an impressive 1.0 and The 100 (0.5) down just a tenth to tie last week's premiere. The Goldbergs (2.2) and Modern Family (3.5) each adjusted up, making an even The Middle (1.8) look worse by comparison. And the 10/9c tie was decisively broken as Stalker (1.6) inched up and Nashville (1.4) down.
  • TV's biggest event on Wednesday was Game 7 of the World Series, which combined a very compelling game with the usual Game 7 heat to take an enormous spike over the generally bad numbers for the rest of the series. Household overnights were up 59% from Game 6, and the demo spike looks likely to be even bigger. (The preliminary was a 5.7 vs. Tuesday's preliminary 3.0.) More after finals.
  • The Game 7 probably helped to limit what would've normally been some Halloween episode heat, especially on ABC. The Middle (1.8) and The Goldbergs (2.1) were down slightly in the 8/7c hour, Modern Family (3.4) was even, and Black-ish (2.7) and Nashville (1.5) were up slightly. CBS also took a hit with Criminal Minds (2.3) and Stalker (1.5). Apparently there were pre-emptions for the CW's Arrow (1.0) and The 100 (0.6), so we'll see how those look after finals.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 1.8 33% -14%-0.3n/a 5/5 -18% -14% -18% 2.0
The Goldbergs 2.2 40% -4%-0.1-0.3 3/5 +29% -4% +29% 2.4
Modern Family 3.5 45% +3%+0.1-0.1 3/6 n/a +3% +59% 3.4
Black-ish 2.7 45% +13%+0.3+0.1 3/6 n/a +13% +59% 2.3
Nashville 1.4 32% +0%+0.0+0.3 2/6 +0% +4% +4% 1.5
ABC:+1%+24%
Survivor 2.2 31% +0%+0.0n/a 5/6 -4% -2% -6% 2.4
Criminal Minds 2.3 28% -8%-0.2+0.0 4/5 -4% -6% -4% 2.4
Stalker 1.6 28% -6%-0.1-0.2 5/5 n/a -6% -6% 1.5
CBS:-5%-5%
The Mysteries of Laura 1.2 20% -8%-0.1n/a 7/7 n/a -8% -11% 1.4
Law and Order: SVU (R) 0.8 24% -50% -11% 1.2
Chicago PD (R) 0.8 25% -47% -33% 1.1
NBC:-36%-19%
World Series 6.6 36% +89%+3.1n/a 1/7 n/a +126% +29% 6.9
Fox:+126%+29%
Arrow 1.0 51% +11%+0.1n/a 1/4 +25% +5% +33% 1.1
The 100 0.5 43% +0%+0.0+0.1 1/2 n/a +0% -9% 0.5
CW:+3%+15%
Big5:+27%+15%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

32 comments:

Spot said...

Someone might have asked this on another post (or maybe it was actually announced and I just missed it), but now that Stalker has a full season, where does Battle Creek go? Held for the summer?

Spot said...

I wouldn't call The Middle's drop of 0.3 a "slight" drop. ABC had a very strange night. The 8pm hour did poorly (though The Goldbergs exhibited the same pattern as it usually has from The Middle, so it was probably all middle related) but 9pm and 10pm were up despite the game.

CBS results are worse than they look because they didn't have to face the similar skewing PD and SVU. Both should have done better particularly Stalker. Tying Nashville is yikes.

Spot said...

Criminal Minds is always hit hard by world series and next week the CMA's. Only down a tenth in prelims.
.
This just shows how well the Goldbergs is doing. 90 or even 100% retention of the Middle yesterday would be merely okay. Growing 17% is crazy good.

Spot said...

That's my best guess. I could see Person of Interest reruns getting to boot off the repeat schedule (assuming the show's renewed for season 5) and scheduling Battle Creek for Tuesdays at 10:00. Or CBS could try again with launching a drama out of Big Brother on Wednesdays. I prefer the former, though, just to spread the original series wealth throughout the week.


The one thing I don't want to see happen is Battle Creek replacing The Amazing Race. I'm 99.9% sure this isn't happening but considering how erratic CBS is acting with scheduling this season...

Spot said...

Lucky for The Middle and Goldbergs their next airing will be during Standard time against Hell's Kitchen, so they should rebound.

Spot said...

Makes sense. I just don't see a place for it on the in-season schedule, unless someone gets their order cut.

Spot said...

It's not nice to rejoice in others' misery, but it never stopped me - nice job with those back 9 orders NBC/CBS for Laura/Stalker. Especially pathetic is CBS with their deep bench. NBC bench is even deeper, but they need to populate Sunday, Thursday and whatnot in midseason.
It's just preliminaries, and competition was atypical, so it's too early to celebrate Stalker's demise... but it's worth nothing it's now only 1 tenth above last aired CSI episode, and only 2 tenths above Blue Boods. If (or rather, when) Stalker loses around 3 more tenths, I expect it would be dumped to Saturday.

Spot said...

Yeah I think it will air in the summer in a high profile slot. I would guess Thursdays at 10 after Big Brother or maybe Mondays at 9pm to lead into Dome though I expect them to want to repeat Scorpion in the slot if it's renewed as expected.

I would like this summer schedule for them:
Monday: Comedy Repeats + Scorpion Repeats + Under the Dome
Tuesday: NCIS trio repeats
Wednesday: Big Brother + Zoo + Extant
Thusday: Comedy Repeats + Big Brother + Battle Creek
Friday: Criminal Minds Repeats + H50 Repeats if it is renewed (if not, Elementary or POI repeats) + Blue Bloods repeats
Sunday: Big Brother + The Amazing Race + The Mentalist

Spot said...

The only remaining shows that could conceivably see their orders get cut are Hawaii Five-O, Blue Bloods, and The Good Wife since neither Criminal Minds nor any show that starts with NCIS will see a reduction. And sliding Battle Creek into any of those time periods would be a folly.

Spot said...

Heads up, 2010-11 links to http://www.blogger.com/goog_127795775 instead of http://www.spottedratings.com/2011/11/spotvault-middle-abc-2010-11.html

Spot said...

I'd keep open the possibility that either NCIS: New Orleans or Scorpion reruns temporarily move to Thursdays and gets the Big Brother lead-in to increase visibility during the repeat season. We've seen how CBS' typical drama brand is incompatible with BB (Unforgettable, Reckless, Extant), and Battle Creek feels in that same kind of vein. Scorpion, though, could be different enough as an hour-long dramatic Big Bang Theory that it could benefit.

Spot said...

I actually disagree. Battle Creek seems very different from CBS' typical drama brand. It doesn't look like so much like a procedural for starters. That's one of the reasons I was actually pro it airing in the summer, because I felt it wouldn't really fit well with CBS's in season dramas.

As for Extant, I am not sure if it was that incompatible with Big Brother. I think it was just one of those cases in which it was lower rated period and the lead-in wasn't able to change that.

Spot said...

I guess I'm going to talk about ABC comedies again. They are very interesting because how I rank them by strength can change dramatically week to week. When last week Blackish was getting a 2.4 out a of a 3.4 when the Goldbergs were growing to a 2.3 from a 2.1 I would have ranked them Modern Family, The Middle, Goldbergs, Blackish. This week with the Middle and Goldbergs down and Blacklish up I would have ranked them as Modern Family, Blackish, The Goldbergs, The Middle. Either way, I am going to call this a World Series blip for the Middle and from a ratings perspective, I would keep this whole block together. It's rock solid.
From a scheduling perspective, not so much. The Tuesday comedies were duds and I can't see any rational reason to keep TGIF right now. So basically they would have to have any new comedy self start elsewhere. Not a good idea. Seems crazy to not open up the Modern Family lead in for a newbie. The only problem is I don't think its wise to move Blacklish to an anchor slot for season 2. I think the best idea would be to move it down an hour, but then you mess with the great Middle/Goldbergs pairing. Also, I hope ABC is smart enough to not have Nashville there again next year. This makes launching a newbie after Modern riskier if they are also going to launch a new drama at 10. Unless its something like Castle.
If I were ABC, I would go next year with this Wednesday lineup.
The Goldbergs
Blackish
Modern Family
New Comedy
Castle
Note: In this scenario The Middle moves to Tuesdays at 8 with another newbie. (I could also see them using it to keep TGIF alive, but I think The Middle is strong enough still that would be a waste). Nashville moves to Sunday at 10, taking Revenge's old slot.
Any thoughts or criticisms would be appreciated. Sorry for the novel

Spot said...

The Stalker backorder made to sense really. Each of CBS's newbies kinda had a purpose. NCIS: LA was being thrown to the unknown on Mondays so they launched NCIS: NO as a potential replacement. The Good Wife is ending its life, so they wanted to launch another female led critical acclaimed drama in Madam Secretary as a potential replacement. CSI is expensive and ending its life, so CSI: Cyber was a clear cheaper replacement. Stalker clearly was never going to replace Criminal Minds (never mind the fact it doesn't need replacing). That 1.5 is worse than anything CSI ever did there and only POI had once hit that low Monday-Thursday at 10. Not using Criminal Minds to launch CSI: Cyber is crazy. Stalker was a clear 13 and out. It's ratings were not so horrible it needed to be pulled right away, but they were a waste of a good lead in in a relatively uncompetitive slot

Spot said...

Fixed, thx.

Spot said...

In my opinion, it overwhelmingly depends on how their pilots look.
If ABC would have some promising rookie (as Black-ish was), I'd let it anchor not-Wednesday comedy block. That way current nice Wednesday flow would stay intact.
But if their next sitcom development slate would consist of Selfies and Manhattans, I'd move Black-Ish to anchor that 3rd comedy block on another night. If it hurts it much, they would simply bring it back to Wednesday for next/during same season.

I wouldn't move Goldbergs anywhere, because it's doing so much in its new timeslot. Why jerk it around, then?
I wouldn't move The Middle anywhere too, because it's past its prime, it's currently the weakest Wednesday comedy, and moving it elsewhere could easily be a death blow to it.

Spot said...

I think it's clearly Modern Family | Big Gap | The Goldbergs | Black-ish/The Middle.

I still don't appreciate the idea of The Middle moving to Tuesdays, not only because I am not sure I like the idea of breaking up this block but especially because I am not really sure if ABC should have comedies on Tuesdays. I would rather have them going full force on a male centric night there instead of going down the family comedy route at 8pm. It sure beats hangout comedies but still, I am not sure if it is ideal. On the other hand, I understand the argument that they will want to premiere a new comedy and that there is no room for it on Wednesdays, but still...

Spot said...

I agree 100% with you that it depends on development. But I would argue that their development is Selfies and MLSs, then they shouldn't bother disrupting the Wednesday block for their sake either especially since there is no logical place for that other tuesday comedy hour. Yes, I am aware of Tuesdays at 8, but I still don't think it's an ideal situation with the voice looming and especially because I just don't find comedies a tonally good match for Shield. Better simply premiere a new drama there instead and let Wednesdays stay put. Otherwise they would only jerk around the Black-ish to proper a Selfie or a Manhattan..

Spot said...

Nicely done then. But then were would you put it? Because the only other place I could remotely think of (excluding TGIF, especially since I know that you want them to go all reality there) is Wednesdays at 10 and I would support that. Mondays are full with Reality + Castle (or other drama), Tuesdays are... Tuesdays (enough said about it in my previous comment), Thursdays are TGIT+Big Bang on the night and Sundays are... Well I guess I don't have much to say about Sundays either, but comedies as OUAT lead-outs to lead into a drama at 10 sounds weird to me

Spot said...

But you're the one that doesn't want comedies at Tuesday, you should know in advance where they would move that block. Just kidding, but be careful what you wish for.

With CBS down to one Monday comedy block, Monday 9 PM is only Mon-Thu 8 or 9 PM hour with no comedies. So why not?

I don't know if they can tweak Dancing with teh Stars format even more - but if they can, something llike this:

Sun: AFHV or DWTS / OUAT / midseason renewal / Nashville
Mon: DWTS / comedies / new procedural
Tue: Agent Carter / SHIELD / Castle
Wed: comedies / comedies / new soap
Thu: TGIT
Fri: Beyond the Tank / Shark Tank / 20/20

Spot said...

Again I would only be open to such a thing if, and only if, the new comedies are really good to justify the risk of breaking up DWTS so much and breaking Wednesdays. I am still hesitant to say for sure that someone should really have comedies there. I think the voice's strongest hour is fiercer competition to comedies than say all of NBC or FOX comedies, and maybe even more than hours like Men+Something or Middle+The Goldbergs (basically, stronger than any hours that doesn't have TBBT and MF). But I also don't hate the idea so it all depends I guess. One thing though is that I would prefer to leave Castle there to lead-out of those unknowns and launch something new out of Shield than the other way around. But that's a detail.


PS: I know ABC is having a great season but when was the last time they actually produced two midseason renewable dramas? I don't recall. Seems optimistic to me.

Spot said...

ABC should keep this block in tact, but they also probably should've kept the Middle/Suburgatory/Modern Family/Happy Endings block intact (which I'd say was pretty equal to this one) so I don't have high hopes.


I agree that Black-ish being moved to anchor slot in S2 would not be a good move. I'm getting the sinking feeling that they're gearing Goldbergs up to take the lead-off slot and they're going to ship The Middle off to die somewhere, but I hope that's not the case.

Spot said...

Yes, Castle / new procedural are interchangable. Not much important.
Yes, Sunday 9 PM doesn't have to be midseason renewal, It could be "serialized female oriented rookie". Not much important.

I like Monday block because they can easily scratch it if need be - they would just make DWTS is 2 hours again.
Also, they can have 90-minutes DWTS initially, premiering one of Monday comedies few weeks later.

Spot said...

All fair point, I agree with them all. I actually feel that ABC will have options next week (this certainly being one of them) which is an interesting place for them to be for a change.

Spot said...

I remember there were rumors ABC was considering putting Happy Endings/Don't Trust the B in the Wednesdays at 10 slot. I kind of wonder if they would've been better off there than Tuesdays after DWTS.

Spot said...

I was all up for that move. That year I would have been strongly behind that. Those were edgy comedies that would have made sense there. And the flow of MF+Suburgatory+Happy Endings+Apartment 23 would have made sense. MF could also have premiered with a double episode to help out the 10pm block.

In addition, DWTS+Nashville+Private Practice would have been a very "flowy" Tuesday, focused on W18-49. The flow of DWTS+Happy Endings/Apartment23+Private Practice was laughable. DWTS was of 0 help to Happy Endings and Apartment 23 was of zero help to Private Practice (which fell badly when it lost the DWTS lead-in from the early weeks).

Spot said...

A show about a pair of detectives in the rough and tumble streets of a town/city trying to make things better? Sounds a touch like Golden Boy to start with. And it's essentially a crime drama but substitute a lot of scenes in a lab testing DNA and fingerprints with good ol' shoe leather police beat work. This is right in CBS' wheelhouse but with even hotter Emmy-winning producers in charge. Not to say this will be a bad show, but it's not a show that hues outside of CBS' crime-and-potatoes brand (like Under the Dome, Extant, Jericho, Swingtown, Viva Laughlin, or Harper's Island).

Spot said...

I LOVED the middle and have never watched black-ish but Black-ish, so far, is a far stronger show than Happy Endings ever was. Modern Family was regularly pulling high 5s that year, so Happy Endings results really weren't impressive, hence the move. I think this block is overall stronger than that one was, though MF is not the powerhouse that it once was.

Spot said...

The Middle on Tuesdays was more of a "family viewing" night. Once Upon a Time and Agents of S.H.I.E.LD are the only dramas on broadcast TV that I would consider "for the whole family", even if they aren't geared towards kids specifically. Kind of the reverse idea of Shield/Goldbergs last year

Spot said...

Yeah, I agree that Black-ish is stronger than Happy Endings, but HE still did fairly respectably (moreso than anything that followed in the slot) and Suburgatory also built on its Middle lead-in initially. Add in the fact that you had a strong Revenge at 10 and it was a rock solid line-up that shouldn't have been dismantled as quickly as it was.

Spot said...

Oh if you are counting the 10pm drama I agree 100% that it was a much stronger block since Revenge was a hit that year and Nashville is a flop nowadays.

Spot said...

I'll change to OVER

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