Tuesday, October 7, 2014

The Question, Tuesday 10/7/14: Will The Flash Speed Up the CW's Comeback?


For all the negativity that tends to surround the fifth broadcast network, the CW's development has improved in the last couple seasons, with both the 2012-13 (Arrow) and 2013-14 (The Originals) classes each generating a legitimate anchor-worthy newbie. The network's big hope in 2014-15 is a second dip in the DC Comics pool, and this one may have even higher hopes. The Flash seems to have even more brand recognition than the Green Arrow or a Vampire Diaries spin-off, and the competition sets up nicely in its 8/7c timeslot. Will The Flash speed up the CW's comeback? That's The Question for Tuesday, October 7, 2014.

Notable CW Premieres
2.6 (90210, 9/2/08) (87 A18-49+)
2.1 (The Vampire Diaries, 9/10/09) (75 A18-49+)
1.3 (Arrow, 10/10/12) (62 A18-49+)
1.0 (The Originals, 10/3/13) (53 A18-49+)

I'm not that discouraged by how the CW's early drama returns have gone (well, other than Reign). But The Flash is probably targeting a different viewership bloc anyway. And I think that crowd will be mobilized in a big way for this premiere. Can it beat 90210 as the biggest historical-adjusted premiere in network history? I think it'll be close.

Over/Under: 1.45.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

39 comments:

Spot said...

Ooh, maybe I'm just in a cynical mood, but I'd be quite surprised if it broke a 1.5. I'm thinking that, at best, it will reach Arrow's debut.

Under.

Spot said...

Under, 1.3

Spot said...

The line is a touch higher than I expected. It can probably match Arrow and so beat it in historical-adjusted numbers.

Under

Spot said...

I'm no comic book geek, but I don't think this is really a bigger brand than Arrow. Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over.

I expect 1.5, but 1.4 or 1.6 wouldn't surprise me.

Close call, I'm taking over only because today's 8 PM competition is lighter than usually. Namely, The Voice should score "only" high 2s, as some clip show is airing today. Elsewhere, NCIS
isn't in its strongest season, while ABC comedy block being so weak is
nice for Flash. Fox is encoring Family Guy highly rated
premiere, and while it probably would be better to go against failure called Utopia
... it's a repeat, and it's on Fox.

I expect first The Flash season to roughly match Arrow's Season 1 ratings from 2 years ago (which actually would be some 20% better in A18-49+). That would be "only" 1.4 for premiere, and I'd take under. But as i said, today's competition makes me think 1.5+ is at around 51% chances.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I have been optimistic about the Flash since day 1. He is a tier once hero. I think 3rd place is a lock. Anways, I'm OVER. I think this premiere is the only chance the CW will ever have of hitting another 2.0. But I'm thinking a 1.7-1.8. It will settle about 40% below that and late season people will call it a disappointment and what not

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Damn Spot. I came here looking for the question and thinking that I was going over because I am genuinely optimistic about the flash and I think it will do really good business especially with the timeslot setting up as nicely as it is doing. But then I looked at your line and I thought damn he is even more optimistic than I am. So I thought I would have to go against my original instinct and just go under. But then I saw that the voice is a recap today. And then I remembered the way the arrow episodes spiked with the flash last fall. And then I didn't know what to do.


Oh screw it... Over

Spot said...

Tough line, but OVER.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under but not by too much

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under at a 1.0. No way a CW show gets to a 1.5 (but then, maybe I just haven't paid enough attention)

Spot said...

Over, 1.5. Have been locked at that number for about a month now, and never felt I had to revise it down. Actually wouldn't be surprised with a higher rating

Spot said...

under slightly

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

over. 1.6

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under. 1.1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eea2wUO4z28

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under. This line just feels too high for The CW, even if it features one of the most prominent "Not Big Three" Justice Leaguers.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under. Maybe it's a failure of imagination but I can't see a CW show going above a 1.5. I'd love it if it did though, so it's sort of win-win here.

Spot said...

Under. I just don't see any show on CW crossing the 1.5 again, not even The Flash, a 1.4/1.3 for the premiere and settle in low 1's for most of its 1st season (if spotted projection of league average for 2014-15 is right, it's going to be the biggest series premiere since 90210 in plus).

Spot said...

This is a tough one IMO. The main reason (I think) that Arrow premiered so low is that Arrow isn't as well known as other DC characters (especially the Flash). I'll say under, though. My expectations for The Flash premiere are pretty high, but I have very little confidence in the CW as a network.

Spot said...

"The Flash" was my 3rd favorite new show of the fall, but I think the CW would be ecstatic if it even earned a 1.2.

Spot said...

"The Flash" was my 3rd favorite new show of the fall and I'm rooting for its ratings success but I think the CW would be ecstatic if it even earned a 1.2.

Under.

Spot said...

Under. I feel like Arrow had a bigger buzz.

Spot said...

Big risk, here, but I'm doing badly so far, and an against-the-grain win would really help: so, Over

Spot said...

Most every network has a freshman show they were all-in with before the
season started: How to Get Away with Murder (ABC), Scorpion (CBS), and
Gotham (Fox) (I'd argue NBC is really all-in with sophomore The
Blacklist based on the treatment
it's getting this season). And among those new shows they have been
successful on its merits alone and/or compared against the rest of the
their networks' schedule. The Flash is very clearly The CW's all-in
show. And I think the network will get rewarded for it, but not by this much.

Under.

Spot said...

The Flash ran until 9:05. Which means that there is basically no way either the Flash or Supernatural will be adjusted. It also made me start Shield late, which I guess was the point

Spot said...

Overnights have it being second to only 90210 CW premiere history and besting not only Arrow's premiere but Selfie/MLS and Shield. Wow!

Spot said...

Top 25 markets have it at 2.1/2.2. My god

Spot said...

Top 25 markets have it at 2.1/2.2. Jeez!

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