Wednesday, October 8, 2014

The Question, Wednesday 10/8/14: Will Arrow's Ratings Shoot Upward?


I have decided that The Flash's epic 1.8 premiere was big enough to give tonight's Arrow premiere a Question-worthy level of intrigue. (Also, it's less hand-wringing for me than taking a shot in the dark at American Horror Story.) In its two seasons to date, Arrow has never been the huge breakthrough that The Flash was on day one, but it also didn't drop off too worryingly in its sophomore season. And lead Stephen Amell made a cameo appearance in The Flash's pilot last night (with The Flash lead Grant Gustin returning the favor tonight). Will Arrow's ratings shoot upward? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 8, 2014.

Arrow Last Season
0.9/0.92/0.9 (premiere/average/finale)

The 0.9 premiere last season was a bit misleading, as the show ended up doing better than that for much of the rest of the fall. It was down in 0.7/0.8 territory for most of the spring before returning to 0.9 for the finale.

I'm a little gun-shy about how much heat a separate series can bring; after all, last night's Supernatural (1.2) was probably only a tenth or two above what it would've done with a more normal lead-in, and that was a direct Flash lead-out. NCIS and The Vampire Diaries didn't pick up any heat when they launched spin-offs recently. And the bigger Arrow bounce may come when it does an actual Flash cross-over. But Flash was so darn high-rated that I still think the DC Comics synergy might amount to a little something here.

Over/Under: 1.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

40 comments:

Spot said...

Even without potential heat from The Flash I don't think 1.1 would be *too* out of the question (or at least 1.0). So with that said, OVER

Spot said...

Yay thank you for the question;)

I am going Over. It's OUAT all over again for me. A serialized show that we wouldn't normally see jumping ahead so late in its run but that has a big outside factor helping. Frozen was it for OUAT, Flash could be it for Arrow. I don't think the magnitude will be the same of course, but I think it manages to do enough to pass the line.

On a side note: I badly wish the cw was launching the 100 tonight amidst all the positive momentum instead of waiting for the world series and for the flash to cool off.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

OVER

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Arrow's other advantage is that similar skewing Revolution is no longer competition. That combined with Fox being weaker with Hell's Kitchen instead of The X-Factor means there's a chance for Arrow to overachieve.


Over.


And if you aren't going to do an American Horror Story: Freak Show Question, I unofficially will!


The AHS franchise launches pretty strong: the debuts for seasons 2 (2.2) and 3 (3.05) were pretty easily their respective high points. And season 3 ended on a very strong note compared to the first two in terms of overall ratings and week to week growth. How much that counts with an anthology series, though, is up for debate. A complicating factor is CBS' Stalker, but last week's mediocre debut may mean AHS will be more damaging than the reverse. I do think that AHS: Coven was the most accessible of the three years pop culture-wise (witches versus martial drama & mental illness/Nazis/aliens), which explains the outstanding y2y growth, and that Freak Show won't be able to fully keep up that pace. But the curiosity factor will remain in play and nearly keep up with that pace to start.



Unofficial Line: American Horror Story: Freak Show: 3.85 (3.855 if we are able to go out to the hundredths)

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I knew Flash was going to be a bonafide hit but that big?!? Wow! I'm pleased but disappointed I didn't predict it right here. I'll try to fix that today. Over for Arrow.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

I got AHS Freak Show up at the TV Media Insights Daily Game! :) I can't post the link here (Disqus will mark this as spam) but do a search and it'll lead you there.

Spot said...

Under - but just, I can absolutely see a 1.0 here. 1.1? Not so much.

Spot said...

Over.

Something like 1.1 or 1.2. Just a day ago, I'd take under on this line with 67% confidence. Today I'm 75% sure in over 1.05. Around 2.4 million A18-49ers watched The Flash pilot yesterday. That's double more than Arrow had last season (on average). Surely some of those will check Arrow today. Combined with Arrow (slowly and steady declining) usual audience, I'd expect it pushes ratings barely over Spot's line.

Spot said...

Over. I got burned so badly by the CW yesterday that I just can't let that happen again.

Spot said...

Over! So glad I got yesterday's right.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under!

Spot said...

Over!

Spot said...

That's a really dificcult line for me, I was sure that Arrow was under until I saw how huge The Flash begun. I'm going with over because Arrow could have a little boost from The Flash premiere.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

over. 1.1

Spot said...

This line is so close ugh. I would say over because I think it would have made 0.9/1.0 anyways and the Flash's success will boost it just over the line.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under at 1.0

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over. 1.1

American Horror Story 2.8

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under with a 3.4

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under at 1.0. I think Arrow was on a bit of downtrend, and while I do think the extra attention will keep the premiere from falling too hard, I just don't see it growing all that much.

Spot said...

Under. Again, maybe I lack imagination when it comes to the CW, but I can't see Arrow going over 1.0 very often any more, even with The Flash.

Spot said...

The Flash is way more well-known than Arrow, which is the main factor that The Flash got such an outstanding rating. It would benefit the CW if they would replay Arrow from season 1 some time, like AMC does for The Walking Dead before it premieres. I'm not even sure if the CW could even do that, though. But still, the only reason I haven't watched Arrow yet is because I have yet to watch season 1. I'm not going to start watching season 3 if I haven't watched seasons 1 or 2.


Arrow will still get some exposure from The Flash (especially because of Queen's cameo). I was way off for The Flash prediction, so i'll go against my judgement and say over.

Spot said...

Maybe just enough heat to go Over.

Spot said...

over?

Spot said...

Under

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