Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/26/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Once Upon a Time (2.4) and The Good Wife (1.5) each upticked, meaning both of TGW's best numbers this year came at a 10/9c start time. The Walking Dead (7.0) remained slightly ahead of last fall's pace.
    • The World Series got a 3.3, down 20% from last year's 4.1 for Game 5 and a steeper 28% from the Sunday game (Game 4) last year. Another weak result for the Series, but it is worth noting that Fox had the late NFL game on this night last year. NBC's Sunday Night Football (7.1) had one of its lowest results of the season but was still 13% above the 6.3 on World Series Sunday last year.
  • On a sports-filled Sunday, the one network without any sports took a big hit. ABC's Once Upon a Time (2.3), Resurrection (1.2) and Revenge (1.1) all took further double-digit drops. This three-hour period (and Once itself), once such a massive explosion for ABC, was only barely on the year-to-year upside on this night. But if you're looking for a reason for these shows to rebound, maybe the lead-in at 7/6c had something to do with it. A Star Wars Rebels special (0.6) was completely invisible, only doing about half of the usual America's Funniest Home Videos numbers.
  • Elsewhere, this was the one game of the World Series that had to deal with primetime NFL competition, though a considerable portion of the country had regional NFL leading in on Fox. And NBC's NFL game appears to be down a fair amount week-to-week. More on all this after finals.
  • The CBS lineup started after NFL overrun at right around 8/7c (pre-empting CSI). In the preliminaries, Madam Secretary (1.5) and The Good Wife (1.4) were at typical levels.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Star Wars Rebels 0.6 32% n/a -43% -56% 1.1
Once Upon a Time 2.4 44% -11%-0.3-0.5 5/5 +9% -11% +7% 2.7
Resurrection 1.2 35% -14%-0.2-0.3 5/5 n/a -14% -17% 1.3
Revenge 1.1 32% -15%-0.2-0.2 5/5 -21% -15% +22% 1.5
ABC:-18%-11%
NFL Overrun 6.6 40% -25%-2.2n/a 8/8 -26% +474% +408% 6.7
60 Minutes 2.3 22% +92%+1.1n/a 3/6 +77% +59% +28% 1.6
Madam Secretary 1.5 16% +0%+0.0+1.1 3/6 n/a +7% +7% 1.6
The Good Wife 1.5 19% +7%+0.1+0.0 1/6 +7% +7% +15% 1.8
CBS:+120%+105%
Football Night in America p2 0.8 35% -60%-1.2n/a 7/8 -43% -60% -43% 1.3
Football Night in America p3 3.4 44% -17%-0.7-1.2 8/8 -6% -21% -8% 3.9
Sunday Night Football 7.1 48% -13%-1.1-0.7 8/9 +13% -16% +12% 6.9
NBC:-28%-6%
World Series Pregame 0.3 27% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -96% -96% 0.8
World Series 3.3 33% +27%+0.7n/a 3/5 -20% +38% -26% 3.7
Fox:-44%-58%
Big4:-10%-15%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

49 comments:

Spot said...

Damn it Resurrection! These ratings have no excuse. 48% retention. Does it even air all 13 episodes in its timeslot??

Spot said...

Resurrection was a case of flat-out rejection.


It reminds me of The Event, which went from 3.6 to 1.1, similar to Resurrection's trend of 3.8-1.2.


Limited run shows don't last on broadcast TV, The Following finished this season at -33%, Resurrection sits at -42%, a bit worse than Under The Dome (-40%) and Sleepy Hollow (-41%).

Spot said...

What could replace it in short order? If Betrayal stuck around all season last year with worse numbers, why not Resurrection? And with the extra episode order, ABC is clearly willing to throw some money its way to carry them through whatever its plan is with the night until the week after the Oscars.

Spot said...

Resurrection actually was cut to 13 episodes (from 15-16 mentoned at upfronts). Probably they plan two hours finale for 12/21.

Spot said...

They'll just let it die against the NFL playoffs.


Then, massive promotion for American Crime in the Oscars and hope it sticks.


Sundays are hostile for network TV, FOX and CBS don't care that much, one airs animations, the other its syndication farm, NBC in the spring and ABC are showing how tough is to compete against sports and cable hits.

Spot said...

But Betrayal just had a low rated Revenge lead in. It wasn't hogging valuable real estate. Once Upon a Time is still a great lead in that Resurrection is wasting.

Spot said...

I believe Resurrection wasn't locked to be "limited". Apparantly behind the scene issues cut the first season to a short 8 episodes and ABC smartly didn't give a full season order for season 2. Anyways, the rejection is surprising to me. Season 2 is a huge step up creatively. And everyone who watched all of season 1 showed up for season 2's premiere. I have the same feeling about Shield too

Spot said...

I agree with this prediction although it's also possible they bring it back for two weeks in January to air after Galavant.

Spot said...

Again I ask why does CBS have the slavish devotion to 60 Minutes that it gets the NFL lead-in instead of the preemption that CSI got. If they really wanted Madam Secretary to work, CBS should have given it its usual starting time.

ABC's night feels like it goes off the rails without America's Funniest Home Videos. Wipeout's 2 hour episodes were consistently dinged when it had to expand into the 7:00 hour and Extreme Makeover: Home Edition's averages are lower with those same 2 hour eps when you look at its history. Means two things to me: Once Upon a Time is going to hit a new low when this happens for November sweeps (although its possible ABC may have Nielsen designate the 7:00 hour as a Special to not have it count in the averages a la the pre-Thanksgiving episodes of The Middle and Modern Family in years past) and that ABC should find a new host to keep the show going for 2015-2016 after Tom Bergeron leaves.

Spot said...

Deadline is reporting that American Crime may loose the post OUAT slot. I think it doesn't fit there at all, I would rather have it at Wednesdays at 10, even if I don't see the show working one way or the other.


I think Members Only or Astronaut Wives Club may end up here instead. The biggest question remains what happens to Tuesdays at 8. I kind of think ABC solved the Thursdays at 8 deathslot only to replace it with the Tuesdays at 8 one.

Spot said...

About the 7pm hour, I also have the feeling that OUAT tends to do better when it has repeats of itself as lead-in. I haven't actually looked at the numbers to check this but I have this impression.

As for CBS, I honestly have no idea.

Spot said...

So lets say Resurrection is yanked today. New show would get 3 weeks on in November, then a week off for the American Music Awards, then 3 weeks on in December, then a few weeks off for the holidays. In January/February it'd have to face the Events (while experiencing 2 more preemptions for the Super Bowl and the Oscars) and have wild-card Galavant as a lead-in. And Galavant is not going to be a Scorpion-like pleasant surprise wild-card. Then it would probably lose its slot, if not already canceled, for American Crime or whatever ABC decides to put post-OUAT's season 4B.

The only show that could possibly do this is Beyond the Tank. But I do not think that ABC will want to treat its reality franchise that way. (If anything, I'd rather see ABC Thursdays go Beyond the Tank/The Taste as the gap schedule between TGIT then putting Beyond on Sundays.)

Spot said...

Though I mentioned it in a comment about going to Thursdays, I do think Tuesdays at 8:00 could also be Beyond the Tank. The major downside would be facing The Voice's Spring season, but giving the night a sturdier launch than Selfie is more important.

Spot said...

I wanted Beyond the Tank as lead-in for Shield but I have a very strong feeling ABC won't let it it get out of Fridays.

Spot said...

OUAT reruns/recap specials tend to be in tandem with season premieres. Those higher numbers may just be a reaction to the show returning instead of having itself as a lead-in. It'll be a test for sure

Spot said...

Agree on both accounts.

Spot said...

The most logical place is Fridays at 10:00 since it's the natural extension of Shark Tank. But I do think ABC should at least consider other possibilities like Tuesdays or Thursdays between TGIT. Maybe it should come on in January between Voice cycles as the lead-in for Agent Carter...

Spot said...

Resurrection season premiere-2.2

Four Weeks Later-1.2

Spot said...

I hope MURDER doesn't go the way of other limited series.

Spot said...

It wouldn't be a bad idea. But what would you use as lead-in for Shield itself? Members Only? I suppose it's the last option but it doesn't really "fit", do they? Besides, launching a spring drama at 8pm against the voice, ncis and dst would be utterly challenging.

Spot said...

Yeah good point

Spot said...

Beyond the Tank probably has a quick production schedule for turning around episodes. They could add more episodes to the season 1 order.


As much as I know the idea is anathema, I'd also reheat the suggestion of a Dancing with the Stars results show for just this Spring. Members Only is kind of the last bullet in the chamber if it's not eyed as a gap series, but that's not a good enough reason to put it there. I'd consider the following replacements at midseason for ABC:


The Whispers for Forever
American Crime for Nashville
Secrets & Lies for How to Get Away with Murder
The Astronauts Wives Club for Resurrection


If that weren't already enough changes, I'd really have Members Only replace Revenge and bump it with Nashville to the summer.

Spot said...

I know people hate me for this but again, on a matter of principle, I would be opposed to DWTS on Tuesdays. Maybe they would have quick gains on the hour (but the results show that they did air there didn't even do that hot, though obviously everything is very hot compared with the comedies currently airing there) but I don't see how that would help Shield one bit as there is probably not a less compatible show on the network for it and also because there is a serious risk that they would harm the Monday shows, which have improved ratings wise ever since the results show were cut. It would feel like a retrogress. But well, I am running kind of desperate here in terms of what to put there so at some point I will have to budge and accept that your solution is better than no solution. I admit that it's probably better than Members Only despite all my cons against it.

As for Revenge, I don't really think it would be worth moving it to summer. If this is indeed the final season, then I am sure that ABC will announce it in the winter and promote the final run as such so that would likely help its ratings, on top of a presumably better lead-in of course. Launching two new shows back to back on the night is not a good idea IMO.

However, at the end of the day, we know that ABC will keep Nashville there, right? I don't actually see them moving it to summer. Which means we are probably looking at something like Members Only | Shield | American Crime as horrible as that sounds.

Spot said...

As far as Resurrection goes, I don't think it has anything to do with being limited. That argument would work if this had happened on its third season after 6 months break. But this way it was just a midseason show premiering late and back on the fall schedule later on. The same way Castle, Scandal or Grey's Anatomy did before it.

Spot said...

Really? You think Manhattan Love Story was a great compatible lead-in for SHIELD and that Selfie will be too? :-P

I'm not advocating that DWTS: Results be a permanent solution; part of the reason why the results show was so problematic for ABC was that there was no Bachelor fill-in equivalent. Had The Taste shown some muscle it would have been promising but DWTS fell so much that it became a moot point.

With Nashville, the only reason I suggest it is that ABC didn't even want a full 22 episode season. The Wednesday comedy block is more "ascendent" than the past few seasons with The Goldbergs and black-ish now there, so remove the weak link and try something new since Stalker is underperforming and ChiPD continues to act like NCIS: LA - a hanger-on that approximately parrots its lead-in.

And Revenge. I don't think being bumped will happen. But of the four networks ABC would be most likely to do something such as that. The suggestion, though, really came up as a place for Members Only since it doesn't read as summer burn-off as it's not a cheap scripted Canadian import (Rookie Blue, Motive).

Spot said...

OMG, Galavant! Unbelievably awful midseason entry. Feels like a show Paul Lee would enjoy!

Spot said...

For fun, 2 Broke Girls season premiere

over/under 2.75

Spot said...

Under. 2.1

Spot said...

Under. I think I am more positive about it than most but I find your line too high!

Spot said...

Under. Way under, unless some get lost looking for TBBT and decide to stay.

Spot said...

You mean the guest appearance of Kim Kardashian won't draw 'em in? :)

Spot said...

Under.

2.1

Spot said...

I know my mom was a fan, but gave up. She said it should have been 10 episodes and done. Now they dragged it out. Network greed.

Spot said...

CBS has just given full season orders to Scorpion, NCIS: NO, and Stalker and Madam Secretary to which I presume the latter two will shock some commenters here.

Spot said...

If particular show gets 22 episodes, does it guarantee it would remain in the same timeslot throughout its entire first (and only) season? No, of course. How about nice, little Saturday timeslot for both of Stalker and Madam Secretary?

Stalker
1.15 - my over/under on episode #16 ratings
My odds for eventual move to Saturday: 90%.

Madam Secretary
0.95 - my over/under on episode #16 ratings
My odds for eventual move to Saturday: 99%.

Spot said...

Under. 2.0 Broke Girls.

Spot said...

I highly doubt any show collapses enough to move to Saturday. Since CBS has already paid for episodes, they are better off airing them in season and saving the originals that would replace them (mentalist, battle creek) for summer. Your option makes no sense profitability wise for CBS.

Spot said...

Ahah of course the comedies to an even more horrible job leading into Shield than DWTS would. That's why I said that despite me hating the idea, DWTS is better than the alternatives I might have which are... nill basically. And I agree that a big problem of DWTS results show was the lack of a midseason replacement which always disrupted the night since the night was built around the show anyway.

As for Nashville, I agree with everything you've said. But I just don't see ABC having the guts to do it. I honestly don't know what to expect of ABC Tuesday midseason. All the other nights will probably stay the same except Fridays which will likely include Beyond the Tank somewhere and Sundays which will include a replacement for Resurrection. But Tuesdays is a real problem since the pieces they have to work with are Shield, The Whispers, Fresh off the Boat, American Crime, DWTS Results and Members Only (assuming AWC lands on Sundays). Except for the obvious Shield/ Whispers pairing, nothing else fits .And there isn't an obvious piece on other night that would fit unless they go completely crazy and do Shield/Whispers/Castle but I am really not in favour of that option either since I think it's too risky to launch something Mondays at 10.

Spot said...

To be fair, Revenge's season 3 premiered at a 2.3 and fell to a 1.3 by episode 5, but it managed to rebound and keep the numbers for a season. The thing for Resurrection, is that I don't feel that it has found its bottom, not even for this season. There are still 8 more Resurrection episodes, and I don't believe 1.2 is its bottom.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Now, the question is, what is CBS going to do with their benched shows?
CSI:Cyber - sundays at 10, terrible slot but they premiered NYC 22 there, it must not be a priority show.
Undercover Boss - fridays at 8 replacing Amazing Race


Mentalist/Battle Creek are benched, that led me to do a CBS mock schedule:
Sundays: Big/Brother/Amazing Race/Mentalist
Mondays: repeats/Under the Dome
Wednesdays: Big Brother/Battle Creek/Extant
Thursdays: repeats/Big Brother/Zoo


Maybe they place something on tuesdays at 10 since POI will be done soon.

Spot said...

I think it would be so much better to use Cyber in the summer too and simply let CSI air a full season in that awful timeslot.But I really don't see chances of that happening especially since they've just reduced CSI's episode order even further.

If it was up to me, I would do:

Winter | Spring:
Mondays: 2 Broke Girls + Mike and Molly | Scorpion | NCIS & Los Angeles
Tuesdays: NCIS | NCIS New Orleans | Person of Interest
Wednesdays: Survivor | Criminal Minds | Stalker
Thursdays:
The Big Bang Theory + Mom | Two and a Half Men + The Millers |
Elementary (run Men straight through, slide Mom down half an hour and
premiere Odd Couple at 8h30)
Fridays: Undercover Boss | Hawaii Five-0 | Blue Bloods
Sundays: Madam Secretary | The Good Wife | CSI

Summer

Mondays: 2 Broke Girls (R) + Mike and Molly (R) | Scorpion (R) | Under the Dome
Tuesdays: NCIS (R) | NCIS New Orleans (R) | CSI Cyber
Wednesdays: Big Brother | Zoo | Extant
Thursdays: The Big Bang Theory (R) + Mom (R) | Big Brother | Battle Creek
Fridays: Criminal Minds (R) | H50 (R) | Blue Bloods (R)
Sundays: Big Brother | The Amazing Race | The Mentalist


This summer schedule is kind of flexible since I also wouldn't be opposed to originals Mondays at 9, but the pieces should be these. Since Cyber will be burned off Sundays at 10 in the spring, then LA (R) will probably get to air Tuesdays at 10pm.

Spot said...

Will the competition be worse than it was last night though?

Spot said...

I was a BIG fan of the neighbors so I will take the hate on Galavant with a grain of salt :P I might just hate it but the concept is at least different enough for me to want to check it out! But at the end of the day, I would be very surprised if it managed to come back for a second season especially with the way it's been scheduled.

Spot said...

Ahah maybe I am underestimating eh kardashians power. We shall see. Anyway, I am happy that we are finally going to see the real CBS this year. I feel like them hiding out their true Mondays and Thursdays until this late kind of messed with the overall picture we were getting for how this season was going.

Spot said...

OUAT's special episode will air 8 to 10 p.m. instead of the 7 to 9 p.m., previously discussed.

Spot said...

Once is still impressive. Even its weakest showing yet is up 9% y2y! People ragging on it are forgetting it was getting 1.9's in the fall last year, including the fall finale. A serial drama with a -20% y2y trajectory growing is crazy.

Spot said...

I agree 100% with this statement.

Spot said...

I think it might be. I am almost certain that Revenge and Resurrection will go up against The Globes and NFC and maybe even the Grammys (with Galavant as the lead-in). Those 3 nights are traditionally the three nights where ABC's line-up got affected the most. I remembered in 2013, these 3 episodes had Revenge hitting 3 consecutive series lows of 2.0, 1.7, and 1.4 (Before that, all the Season 2 episodes have 2.4 or above, with only one episode at a 2.2), and ever since that Revenge had only once received more than a 2.0.

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