Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/24/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The World Series averaged a 3.1, two tenths behind Game 3 on a Saturday last year. Grimm (1.4) adjusted down a tenth.
  • By NBC's usual late October premiere Friday standards, it was a pretty modest night. Grimm (1.5) returned down three tenths year-to-year and Constantine (1.4) dropped another tenth from there (putting it four tenths behind last year's Dracula premiere). Without knowing what the exact standard will be for Constantine, I would say this was not that horrible. But it's clear that it must hold up a lot better in the post-premiere weeks than Dracula did. That might be possible, since the World Series was in play on this evening, but week two will have to deal with low-viewed Halloween night.
  • The double-whammy of NBC's premieres plus the World Series produced some ugly results on the other networks. ABC's comedy duo of Last Man Standing (1.1) and Cristela (1.0) each sunk two tenths, while The Amazing Race (1.0) gave back all of last week's surge and then some more. Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) joined them at a new low.
  • The strongest results actually came against the Constantine premiere and the later portion of the game at 10/9c; Blue Bloods (1.3) was up a tenth despite the struggles earlier in the CBS evening, while 20/20 (1.5) had a major surge in its first week without competition from Dateline.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.1 23% -15%-0.2n/a 4/4 n/a -15% +10% 1.4
Cristela 1.0 25% -17%-0.2-0.2 3/3 n/a -17% +43% 1.5
Shark Tank 1.8 33% -5%-0.1-0.2 3/5 -10% -5% -10% 2.2
20/20 1.5 33% +36%+0.4-0.1 2/5 +0% +36% +3% 1.7
ABC:+2%+1%
The Amazing Race 1.0 23% -29%-0.4n/a 5/5 -44% -29% -38% 1.4
Hawaii Five-0 1.1 16% -8%-0.1-0.4 5/5 -21% -12% -21% 1.6
Blue Bloods 1.3 14% +8%+0.1-0.1 1/5 +0% +8% +0% 1.7
CBS:-12%-21%
Dateline Fri 1.1 22% -8%-0.1n/a 3/5 -15% +83% -15% 1.5
Grimm 1.4 34% n/an/an/a 1/1 -22% +27% -22% 1.8
Constantine 1.4 42% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +4% -22% 1.7
NBC:+28%-20%
World Series 3.1 32% -9%-0.3n/a 3/3 -6% +464% +182% 3.6
Fox:+464%+182%
Jane the Virgin (R) 0.3 44% +0% +0% 0.4
America's Next Top Model 0.3 36% +0%+0.0+0.0 8/10 n/a +0% +50% 0.5
CW:+0%+20%
Big5:+59%+25%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

30 comments:

Spot said...

Constantine was really bad. I think it will drop to Dracula levels soon, and eventually be replaced by Hannibal in February.

If there was ever any doubt that Blue Bloods would be renewed over Hawaii Five-0, that doubt should be gone by now.

Spot said...

Grimm did alright. It's Plus (88) is right in line with its series premiere (89). My prediction was Grimm 1.6, Constantine 1.5. Here's too hoping they hold up well. I think Constatine should hold alright. But what do I know. I thought the Dracula pilot was great, and was apparantly the only one in the world who did...

Spot said...

It makes sense the carnage would be most against the World Series. FOX averaged a .6 last week. In finals it would probably be multiplied by 5 of what it usually gets. It's crazy that Blue Bloods and 20/20 grew. Maybe people got bored of the game.
Spot, so you have Game Quality thing for baseball?

Spot said...

To be fair, I recall the actual best results always being the Friday before Halloween in the past, even when it premiered before that Friday. Of course, it just so happens that this was the last Friday before Halloween, due to next Friday being Halloween, which probably explains why NBC went forward w/ the lineup now. We'll see how it does, although I will note now that I'll probably not even being watching my usual mid-fall Friday options (i.e. the Truck race) in lieu of hanging w/ old friends.

Spot said...

He was more concerned w/ killing people's stock portfolios than their bodies. That was probably a mistake.

Spot said...

Blue Bloods and 20/20 growth also attributable to the likely change in skew over at NBC, even w/ the network's overall demo growth.

Spot said...

Those are especially strange and gigantic ratings swings for The Amazing race over its last three airings. I'm not sure what to make of it. Not a good night overall for really any of the nets. Even the World Series looks anemic but not sure how it compared to last year's Friday World Series. The Constantine rating is not good for a premiere. Next week being Halloween will not be kind to any of the network ratings, including Constantine. If I recall, Dracula, Hannibal and Crossbones (?), all routinely adjusted down in the finals. Constantine cannot afford to lose any more this early in the game. Not sure debuting a new show against the World Series in the weakest time slot on one of the weakest nights is the best strategy. And then to compete with Halloween for the second episode is asking for trouble. Withholding the debut of your spooky themed shows till close to Halloween probably sounds a lot better on paper now than in previous years.

Spot said...

It was thought to be a compatible pairing w/ Grimy. Of course, that was dependent on Grimy itself drawing ratings. And on Constantine not being tainted by Keanu Reeves in the midst of the Matrix backlash.

Spot said...

Constantine is the same case as Cristela. If Cristela could keep premiere 1.3 number through 22 episodes, it would be likely renewal. Maybe even at 1.2. But what were the odds for it?
What are the chances Constantine will be at renewable average ratings of 1.3-1.4 comes May? Zilch.
Worst case: It drops at Dracula speed, and is canceled after 3-4 episodes, when it drops to level lower than Tuesday cop procedurals repeats would do.
Best case: It stabilizes at 1.0-1.1 and NBC airs all 13 episodes, because that's not so terrible for Friday.
Likeliest: It stabilizes a bit south of 1.0, but NBC airs all 13 nevertheless - because they want first to see if Allegiance / something of midseason Sunday lineup flops before committing themselves to airing Odyssey on Friday 10 PM.

Spot said...

I think NBC had significantly higher expectations for Constantine.

Spot said...

Certainly for Dateline. Blue Bloods might have gained from 35-49 eyeballs moving away from NBC, but I'd expect most of those were watching the game or 20:20.

Spot said...

I thought that Constantine couldn't go below the Spot line if it had any shot. It's gone below the line. Hannibal will have the slot by January, and finally we have a superhero slip in the ratings.

Spot said...

To be fair, Constantine isn't really a superhero. NBC's press relief shows its built on Grimm in the male sub demos. I think it still has a shot, but it has to hold well.

Spot said...

Doesn't really matter much, but I think Friday 10 PM will be Odyssey, and in February.
I think Hannibal is renewed for summer, I don't think they want those sub 1.0 ratings in season. In a pinch, 10 PM Friday or Sunday? Yes, why not. Better Hannibal than repeats.

Spot said...

For curiosity's sake, what makes you think Odyssey will go straight to Fridays?

Spot said...

Because I remember Odyssey as more male (or less female) oriented than something like The Slap or Shades of Blue. But I might be wrong, and from tone of your question I'm beginning to suspect I'm terribly wrong.
Plus, if NBC values shows like Allegiance or Laura more than it, I assumed Odyssey is very low priority for them.

Spot said...

Constantine doesn't really fit the "traditional" superhero mold a la Arrow or Flash. (and certainly not Gotham's "police procedural prequel formula)

Spot said...

Ah, I got ya now bud! :) Though last time I checked, Shades of Blue is planned for the 2015-16 season, not this one. As for my opinion on where Odyssey goes, I assume it would be around Sundays, since Sundays midseason are completely vacant sans AD, and because my brain and heart don't want me to put a show that isn't reality/genre/established on Friday. But hey, you know ratings and scheduling better than I do, so call me a fool.

Spot said...

I don't know it better, I just pretend. I simply leave out "I think", and thus present my opinion as a fact.

Yes, you're right, Shades of Blue is probably 2015-16, but I'm not sure because it's ordered straight to series. My mistake.

How about this
7 PM: The Celebrity Apprentice
8 PM: The Slap (8 episodes), followed by 6x AD
9 PM: "???" , followed by 6x AD
10 PM: Aquarius (13 episodes)

"???" would be Emerald City, but that one's nixed before production started,

Spot said...

EDIT: They also have ordered 10 episodes of Hollywood Game Night. That could be Sun 8 PM from midseason, with The Slap at 9 PM. I had The Slap at 8 PM, because Emerald City at 9 would avoid Once Upon a Time, but since Emerald is dead...

Spot said...

Hannibal is not going to air until april/may 2015, so, it's probably going to be Odyssey.

Spot said...

Silvio, The Slap looks like the most cable-ish drama from NBC. Is it good to place it on sundays at 9 against Game of Thrones?


CBS does it to Good Wife but they don't care much about its ratings, it has been there for years for syndication purposes and acclaim.

Spot said...

But it fits by order size. There is exactly 8 weeks between Super Bowl and Easter when AD should premiere. And I don't see other drama for 9 PM. So I assumed it will be reality (maybe HGN) at 8 PM, and drama 9 PM.

Spot said...

Yes, after your and Eric's comments, I think I perfectly understand NBC midseason plans.
By process of elimination, there's no other place for Aquarius / The Odyssey but 10 PM at Friday and Sunday. And as Aquarius seems more high-profile, I assume it won't go to Friday.

Monday: Voice leading into Heigl (if even Smash didn't crash there, I doubt this will).
Tuesday: same, only maybe not exactly same comedies. Perhaps Kimmy at 9 PM.
Wed 8 PM: Laura, if it gets back 9 order (for which chances increased with soft Constantine debut), otherwise 2nd cycle of The Biggest Loser.
Wed 9/10 PM : same
Thu 8 PM: Parks & Recreation leading into newbie. Already in January, to sample it early so they can merge it with Tuesday block (in March or April) if more than 1 out of 4 comedies rates awful. But they have too much comedy inventory for just 1 comedy block already at the start of midseason.
Thu 9/10 PM: The Blacklist/Allegiance
Fri 8/9 PM: same
Sun 8/9 PM: from Eastern - A.D.
Sun 8/9 PM: until Eastern - reality (Hollywood Game Night?) / drama (The Slap?)

That leaves Fri 10 PM and Sun 10 PM for Aquarius / The Odyssey.

Spot said...

Well, let me just add another thing. Odyssey is from Universal Television, while Aquarius is ITV Studios America. Just something to add to the conversation. But as for your tentative schedule, it seems to be the most likely, and one I strongly agree with.

Spot said...

And to clarify one more thing about Friday, maybe my idea wasn't clear.
As Constantine started later, it should finish its 13 episodes run at 2/13/2015 or week later (assuming it doesn't hold extremely well, so it gets back 9).
Then I would announce Odyssey premiere for 2/27/2015, 3 weeks later than Allegiance (2/5/2015), and Aquarius (2/8/2015, but it is possible they would premiere it behind The Voice cycle premiere at 2/2/2015, with 2nd episode in regular timeslot 2/8/2015).
Anyway, that 3 weeks delay would give them chance to see how Allegiance and Aquarius are doing. If one of those two dramas would be epic failure, then NBC can simply put Odyssey in flop's timeslot and Hannibal at Friday 10 PM.

Spot said...

I still hate the idea of a comedy hour, especially one headlined by P&R, leading into Blacklist. How don't we expect another Welcome to the family situation there?

While I think that's probably the most likely thing to happen, I really dislike it. I would love to see Heroes Reborn there. A very high stakes, male skewing night to go against TGIT.

Spot said...

I don't dislike the idea of Game Night as filler for one of the Sunday hours. But I think that one will be needed on Tuesday to bridge the voice cycles. What do you imagine will air there?

Spot said...

I personally think you are being a bit too hard on Grimm. The show is practically even with its series premiere in PLUS, how is that not a win? Constantine will probably fall a lot so I don't see it making, but I don't think the number in itself is that bad.

The 8pm hour was a carnage though and these next few weeks will be critical for TGIF with Beyond the Tank looming on the horizon. I think they are a package deal though, I doubt we see a LMS renewal and a Cristela cancellation or the other way around (though a lot of us said the same thing in the Malibu Country year). 20/20 finally rebounded though so ABC still had a good night. But that show really is dependent on Dateline not being up against it, it's crazy.

As for CBS, the 8-10 did awful. I am finally ready to assume that H50 might be a bubble show. But I still don't know if CBS will need to axe veterans if they cancel Madam, Men, McHarthys, Stalker and move TAR to summer. But H50 might be starting to look like the lowest man on CBS's veteran totem pole now. I hope it improves, especially because this season has been great.

Spot said...

Scratch my earlier comment about Grimm's Halloween themed Plus scores. This 82 is low compared to the last three seasons 89, 95, and 96 Plus scores. Constatine had 100% retention, just like Dracula. If Grimm and Constantine follow the Grimm/Dracula path, in three weeks they'll have a 1.0 and .7 each. Hopefully this year they both old better, having Dateline and not a hastily scheduled Why We (Heart) Constatine special will help with week 2

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