Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/13/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The CW lineup held up despite a local pre-emption in St. Louis. The Big Bang Theory (4.5) shed a tenth due to a local pre-emption in San Francisco, putting it exactly even week-to-week. NBC's night got better as The Voice (4.0) added a tenth and The Blacklist didn't drop. Castle (1.9) lost a tenth.
  • The CW's newbie Jane the Virgin (0.6 and 1.7 million viewers) got off to a very reasonable start. It wasn't a great match skew-wise with its The Originals lead-in (0.7 and 1.3 million viewers), but it brought a surprising amount of its own audience to the tough Monday 9/8c hour. And it didn't hurt that The Originals held up week-to-week. For now, this night is basically doubling what the CW did on Monday last season, which would be enormous. Jane still isn't that far from the bottom of the CW totem pole, but it will be in contention if the viewers received it as well as the critics did.
  • Almost everything on the big four was pretty close to even week-to-week. That's most significant for newbies Gotham (2.4) and Scorpion (2.4), each down a tenth apiece in week four. NBC's The Voice (3.9) and The Blacklist (2.8) bounced back a touch.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.0 20% +5%+0.1n/a 4/7 -5% +5% -5% 2.1
Castle 1.9 26% -5%-0.1+0.1 3/3 -14% -5% -14% 2.0
ABC:+2%-8%
The Big Bang Theory 4.5 37% +0%+0.0n/a 4/5 -13% +0% +45% 4.3
The Big Bang Theory (R) 2.8 31% -3% +8% 2.3
Scorpion 2.4 26% -4%-0.1-0.1 4/4 n/a -4% +14% 2.3
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.6 22% +0%+0.0-0.1 2/3 -38% +0% +39% 1.7
CBS:-2%+25%
The Voice Mon 4.0 38% +8%+0.3n/a 1/4 -11% +8% -10% 3.8
The Blacklist 2.8 36% +8%+0.2+0.3 2/4 -7% +8% -7% 2.4
NBC:+8%-9%
Gotham 2.4 48% -4%-0.1n/a 4/4 n/a -4% +17% 2.5
Sleepy Hollow 1.7 45% +0%+0.0-0.1 2/4 -37% +0% -37% 1.6
Fox:-2%-14%
The Originals 0.7 69% +0%+0.0n/a 1/2 -36% +0% +75% 0.7
Jane the Virgin 0.6 47% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +20% +71% 0.7
CW:+8%+73%
Big5:+2%-1%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

25 comments:

Spot said...

Really didn't see Jane doing so well. I am not sure how much it changes though unless the CW could conceivably try to establish it as a Friday player. It's either that or Reign. Interesting season shaping up ahead for the CW. And I continue to be worried with the 100 having to go against the world series with all these great premieres.

Spot said...

Just saw that the cw was preempted. Maybe I should have waited for finals to comment.

Spot said...

Jane the Virgin did surprisingly well in a A18-49, but it did bad in its target demo W18-34, just 0.6 in preliminaries. Last season The Originals premiere got 1.4, and Reign 1.0. It's a clear flop, unless Jane somehow holds well in next weeks. 13 episodes and done is the best producers can hope for. And is likely, given traditionally thin The CW bench.

Interesting, practically everything stabilized, with NBC actually a bit stronger this week. Still, two things:
First, even with bleeding stopped, NCIS: Los Angeles is still the biggest loser of Monday landscape. It's doing so bad it would be cancelled in May if it still was in its first 2 seasons. But is not, and it's airing on CBS, so...

Second, even on its strongest night, this week FOX is at around league average drop y2y - Gotham is some 10% weaker than Sleepy Hollow was at this time last year, and Sleepy Hollow scored 15% bellow 2.0 Bones did a year ago.

Spot said...

I'm still a bit worried about Scorpion. I think Big Bang premiere Millere will be a decent enough lead in, but it'll need some super self start after that. 2 Brokes Girls hit a 2.0 last year and The Millers a 1.9 with a 3.8 lead in! How will it do with a 2.0 lead in!?

Spot said...

What did Originals do in W18-34 last night?

Spot said...

The Millers can probably hit as low as 1.5 or 1.6 on Mondays, The Voice will feast on it. I really dislike this absurd plan of CBS. They should simply go with Mike and Molly and call it a day. Hold the millers for thursdays for when the mcharthys flops. In the end, we all know it will be mike and molly that comes back to mondays, not Mom, so all this swapping is unnecessary.

Spot said...

0.7, according to thefutoncritic.
To be clear, 0.6 would be good for Jane the Virgin as a season average. But new shows usually drop 20% already in second episode, and some 40% by the end of fall part of season. Then we can expect it at 0.4 soon, maybe even 0.3 towards 13th episode. The Originals should have more stable ratings out of two.

Spot said...

Yeah FOX really has no silver lining this year. I had also noticed the 11% drop last night. Though it is still slightly better than the -14% from the last two Mondays, for whatever it is worth.

But FOX as a whole is just a big mess. Last night I was curious and checked how much the league average would be down with or without FOX to see the effect it is having of bringing everything else down. Overall, the big five are down 9% year to year. However, if you remove FOX this cuts down to almost half... 5%! 4 full points that FOX is adding to the decline. I wonder if some effect should be applied here to avoid overly inflate the PLUS numbers from the other shows because the FOX collapse seems to be an individual phenomena contained to that specific network. The other networks all seem relatively healthy this year (well, except for CBS. I still feel like we have too much left of them to see, namely the entire Thursday lineup and the "true" Monday lineup for me to pronounce anything) so it's almost as if their shows will get a PLUS bonus from the FOX decline. Just rambling...

Spot said...

Speaking of which, @Spot,

Are we getting Best Case/ Worst Case sometime this week to preview The Millers and maybe the rest of the CBS "hidden" lineup?

Spot said...

Be interesting to see how much of that number is tied up in the St Louis preemption. I'm thinking "enough to suggest this is getting cancelled, not enough to put it below Spot's line."

Spot said...

Hopefully the Best New Show of the Year Jane the Virgin will maintain or increase this season, as it's better than 99% of the trash airing.

Spot said...

There's drawbacks for moving either of those shows.

Jane the Virgin: it'd essentially be The Carrie Diaries all over again as a modestly-rated show shuffled off to the network's weakest night. The only upside is it'd be paired with something more tonally compatible like Hart of Dixie or Whose Line much like TCD got with some of America's Next Top Model.

Reign: If it's at 0.4 now, I don't see how it doesn't match the floor of 0.2 that Nikita earned in its final abbreviated run. Plus, it's not like The Vampire Diaries is that great of a lead-in anymore; asking a new show to face Scandal and The Blacklist with little lead-in support feels foolhardy.

I think The CW would be better off moving Jane to either put Supernatural or iZombie in the post-Originals slot. That's the scenario that has any semblance of an upside even though that's more rooted into the midseason shows than Jane's future...

Spot said...

The down side for the CW is that it was preempted last night, so both The Originals and JTV will most likely adjust down.

Spot said...

There were no adjustments for the CW in finals!

Spot said...

No adjustments for the cw shows after all in finals!

Spot said...

Wow.

Spot said...

...so it's worse than 1% of the trash airing?

Spot said...

I'm trying to post demo #s from now in if anyone's intersted. Sorry for the delay. Been a busy day. Final nationals for
GOTHAM:
M18-34: 1.9
M18-49: 2.6
M25-54: 3.1


JANE THE VIRGIN:
W18-34: 0.7
W18-49: 0.8
W25-54: 0.8

Spot said...

CW's gotta be feeling at least alright about that Jane The Virgin number. Although, given that there are dissenters out there among the critical world (most notably, to me at least, Travis Yanan, who's indicated that he think Gina Rodriguez is a viable star who's been trapped in a godawful vehicle), it's possible it could crater next week and in the weeks to come. Of course, Originals is holding up alright on the night thus far. All in all, a win right now.

Castle and Dancing are w/in year-to-year tolerances at this point to at least keep their night-and-network combo stable in Plus. ABC's gotta be happy that Waltrip's presence, which based on my local rock station's morning show's sports program may be about to end anyway, both because Waltrip will actually be back on track this weekend[*] and because he sucks at dancing, is no longer scooping out those huge year to year chunks.

CBS' night as a whole also appears to be gaining against last year, particularly w/ the big percentage boost that even a substantially weakened NCIS:LA is bringing over Hostages. Of course, I could see it losing some of that timeslot upswing in the second half of the year depending on how things go.

Fox is clearly anxious at this point. They picked up Gotham because it still represents their best overall performance, but we still don't know if it's not going to keep ticking down (or if a floodgate might open at some point). And while Sleepy Hollow is stable for now, the challenges of doing 18 eps remains to be seen.

NBC would probably like a couple more small rebounds from The Blacklist to verify their plan to move it to Thursdays post-Super Bowl. Speaking of, what do all of you think of its prospects as a Super Bowl lead-out?

Spot said...

Curious if you have any for the Blacklist?

Spot said...

This is great. Thanks a lot.

As for Tuesday. Last night CW aired no "female" shows, but W18-34 ratings of New Girl/Mindy would be much appreciated.
And, if it's not too much trouble to search for it, W18-34 for previous 4 episodes of those two comedies - so we can see trend.

Male demos of two Tuesday superhero shows are probably interesting, too.
And, to some extant, all sub-demos of Supernatural. SPN ratings aren't interesting per se... but it would be interesting to see how they fit with The Flash sub-demos. The less they fit, the more chances is The CW would pair back SPN with The Originals in midseason, and launch The Messengers behind (presumably their strongest lead-in this season) Flash. And vice versa.

Spot said...

The Blacklist is female skewing, and not particularly young skewing. According to http://www.tvmediainsights.com/monday-final-ratings-big-bang-theory-nfl-lead-evening/
The Blacklist 10/13/14
M18-34 1.3 ; W18-34 2.2 (A18-34 1.7)
M18-49 2.2 ; W18-49 3.3
M25-54 2.8 ; W25-54 4.3 (A25-54 3.6)

Spot said...

Thanks! Female skewing is quite common for procedurals and singing shows, so it makes sense. I'm sure it's probably a bit more male skewing than Scandal

Spot said...

Yeah, I know. I just meant: No offense, but The Blacklist male demos are not really interesting.

Spot said...

That's true. I just don't ever see them. It's quite common to W18-34 for the CW. FOX used to have it with Glee and Idol all time, I just never see M18-34

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