Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/14/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: NBC avoided a drop for Marry Me, but About a Boy (1.7) and Chicago Fire (1.9) looked a little worse. The superhero shows remained tied as The Flash (1.7) and Agents of SHIELD (1.7) each added a tenth. That means Flash had an above-average week two hold of an incredible premiere number.
  • NBC had a pretty "meh" start to its latest post-The Voice (3.3) comedy effort. Marry Me (2.3) began a couple tenths below About a Boy's first original in the hour in March, and it may adjust down. And the season two premiere of About a Boy (1.8) was just kind of there at 9:30, down a half point from Marry Me but bouncing back a bit from its late-spring episodes after The Voice. It wasn't an awful hour for NBC, especially since The Voice was kinda soft, but it's not a great base to start from since The Voice tends to drop later in the season. The show that looked best in all this was the 10/9c occupant Chicago Fire (2.0), which grew from About a Boy as it did from Growing Up Fisher in the spring.
  • Tuesday's big winner was again The Flash (1.6) on the CW, down a perfectly typical 16% in week two. When you're starting from a premiere as huge as last week's, a typical week two drop is a very good thing. And it could adjust up again.
  • Nobody in the 9/8c hour seemed to benefit from NBC no longer airing two-hour The Voice episodes. NCIS: New Orleans (2.2) was down a tenth (just like the other two CBS shows), while New Girl (1.2) may have been more affected by having to compete with a comedy. ABC's Tuesday problems intensified as Selfie (1.0) and Forever (1.1) each shed a couple more tenths.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Selfie 1.0 37% -17%-0.2n/a 3/3 n/a -17% -66% 1.1
Manhattan Love Story 0.9 40% +0%+0.0-0.2 2/3 n/a +0% -67% 1.1
Agents of SHIELD 1.7 46% +0%+0.0+0.0 3/4 -39% +0% +17% 1.8
Forever 1.1 29% -15%-0.2+0.0 5/5 n/a -12% +69% 1.4
ABC:-6%-23%
NCIS 2.5 18% -4%-0.1n/a 4/4 -19% -6% -19% 2.5
NCIS: New Orleans 2.2 17% -4%-0.1-0.1 4/4 n/a -4% -14% 1.9
Person of Interest 1.5 20% -6%-0.1-0.1 4/4 -32% -6% -32% 1.5
CBS:-5%-21%
The Voice Tue 3.4 35% +36%+0.9n/a 3/4 -15% +42% +48% 3.3
Marry Me 2.3 39% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -12% -39% 1.9
About a Boy 1.7 37% n/an/an/a 1/1 -23% -32% -60% 1.5
Chicago Fire 1.9 34% -10%-0.2-0.8 4/4 -17% -12% -19% 1.9
NBC:+3%-16%
The Simpsons (R) 0.8 54% -11% -47% 0.9
Bob's Burgers (R) 0.6 54% -33% -60% 0.9
New Girl 1.2 67% -14%-0.2-0.3 5/5 -33% -14% -33% 1.4
The Mindy Project 1.1 63% +10%+0.1-0.2 2/5 -21% +10% -21% 1.1
Fox:-12%-40%
The Flash 1.7 51% -11%-0.2n/a 2/2 n/a -8% +55% 1.7
Supernatural 1.0 60% -9%-0.1-0.2 2/2 +0% -9% -5% 0.8
CW:-8%+26%
Big5:-5%-18%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

38 comments:

Spot said...

Well, Marry Me did okay, around every other comedy premiere NBC had post-Voice, but it surely could have done better. Maybe full-season pickup just for face-saving, but again not the comedy savior.

Spot said...

Whoa. "Forever" down to a 1.1. I still haven't watched the first episode yet. I'm beginning to wonder if I should even bother at this point and just stay caught up on the stuff I'm already watching. Hmm.

Spot said...

NCIS shows - Positive, NCIS held well against entire point stronger The Voice (last week's 1st hour scored 2.3, if I'm not wrong), while New Orleans is stable thanks to The Voice shrinking to 1 hour.

ABC Tuesday rookies - most easy 6 points in First Two Weeks game ever. Next Tuesday ABC airs some Halloween special at 8 PM. Surely they'll reshuffle Tuesday schedule week after that? Or we have rabbit caught in the headlights here?

NBC comedies - Not good, but even less one can say they flopped. I smell "defer", for this block, I definitely need some more data points before I'm able to properly evaluate it.

The Flash - Great. Lower Episode 2 drop than I expected, and overall much higher ratings than (very good ratings) I anticipated before season start. Half-hours are 1.6/1.7, so Spot is right - might adjust up again.

Spot said...

As requested, rating trends in order of newest to oldest rating, starting with last night- 10/14/14. If anyone has any other request, just reply and i'll try and do it.

NEW GIRL: dropped -29% with W18-34 and hit a series low not
only with W18-34, but W18-49 (1.3) & W25-54 (1.3) as well.
W18-34: 1.2, 1.7, 1.6, 1.6

MINDY: Flat week to week w/ all women demos.
W18-34: 1.4, 1.4, 1.5, 1.2

MARVEL: Tied last week’s series low with M18-34. Hit fresh lows with A18-49 (1.6) & M18-49 (1.8).
M18-34: 1.2, 1.2, 1.5, 1.6


FLASH Trend for 2 telecasts: Week-to-week, down -21% with M18-34 and -13% with M18-49.

A18-34: 1.3, 1.6
M18-34: 1.5, 1.9
W18-34: 1.0, 1.3

A18-49: 1.6, 1.9
M18-49: 2.0, 2.3
W18-49: 1.2, 1.5

Spot said...

Hi Spot,
I do not know if you have a source and have yet to update the tv show pages yet, but Deadline has the updated Live+SD Nielsen numbers for Premiere Week for all originals as part of the Live+7 numbers. http://deadline.com/2014/10/how-to-get-away-with-murder-gotham-ratings-premiere-week-seven-day-850005/ (when I looked I see that the big bang 8:00 episode is a 5.5 and gotham is a 3.3 for their season/series premeires, along with other adjustments). I realize that this is a really busy time on your site; Thank you for doing it, it is a great resource. Just thought I would try to help.
Also, based on using the numbers from Deadline I calculated plus scores for Premiere Week of ABC 102, CBS 94, NBC 112, FOX 90 (in other words, ABC lost 5 points while everyone else gained 2 points)

Spot said...

This is amazing, thank you so much!

Spot said...

I wouldn't say NCIS being down 20% is a positive. I realize it wasn't facing the voice last year but still... I am not sure if TBL+Still strong MAOS wasn't as strong as ABC comedies+The Voice this year so competition is not a full excuse there.

Spot said...

Nope, those are correct. Just double checked. New Girl is really tanking.

Spot said...

I really think we will finish the year commenting on how badly the season went for CBS. They are hiding some of their weakest hours with the whole Monday-Thursday Big Bang swap and their remaining nights simply aren't doing well, even with the addition of all the new shows. Tuesdays is down 18% year to year (and was down 22% last night) despite the addition of the new spin-off. Wednesdays is even so far but that's only due to Big Brother on premiere Wednesday (Didn't happen last year), since the last two Wednesdays have gone -5% and -7% and that's without Stalker having leveled off, as far as we know. Fridays are down 18% and Sundays are down 19%. Yes Mondays are up but like I said, I don't think those numbers are "real" in terms of offering prospects about the network's health. It's simply not good. The media won't catch on to this of course because Thursday Night Football and the big bang cover up will likely be enough to hide this but I think they are in trouble.

Spot said...

Ah sorry! I had misread what you had written before. Damn, that's a big fall indeed!

Is Marvel still the highest rated M18-39 or M18-49 ABC's show though?

Spot said...

I can't see Modern Family not doing better than Shield

Spot said...

I'm not sure if I understand your question correctly, so I'll just throw out some ratings.


Last night, the #1 M18-34 show was FLASH (tied with voice). Marvel was #3. Among M18-49: #1 was VOICE (2.4), #2 NCIS (2.1), & #3 FLASH (2.0). MARVEL ranked #4.


Overall though, on any night, season to date ratings place MARVEL #4 on ABC with M18-34 (1.3) & M18-49 (1.9), behind MODERN FAMILY (M18-34: 2.2 M18-49: 3.0), ONCE (1.6/2.1), & BLACKISH (1.4/2.1).

Spot said...

I was asking what you gave me on the last paragraph! Thanks ;)

Spot said...

Thanks a lot.

Wow, New Girl was really hard hit by Marry Me, 29% is huge. This is probably a deathblow. It needs to return back to those 1.6/1.7 W18-34 to be in contention, and usually during spring it falls at even faster rate than other shows. At 1.6 it maybe breaks even, but at 1.2 it surely brings net loss to Fox. Unless it miraculously rebounds later, I cannot see it surviving under new Fox regime, not even if all new Fox comedies would bomb like Mulaney.

Mindy is at least stable, but 1.4/1.5 W18-34 I see as already a bit sub-bubble. And there's 10 more episodes to air. I cannot see it surviving either, especially as it will be big 30 episodes from syndication after this season.

And, all of these are good news for Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Fox midseason comedies.

Spot said...

What's positive for me here, pending possible adjustments in finals, is:
NCIS: New Orleans is down only 3 tenths from season premiere, with Episode 4 ratings only .1 bellow Episode 2 ratings. No other new drama is as stable.
Similar, mothership is down only 4 tenths from season premiere, with Episode 4 being only .1 bellow Episode 2 ratings.

Spot said...

I still have a hard time imagining FOX doing away with New Girl for some reason but I admit I don't have much to back me up on this. Maybe they will push it to 100 episodes for syndication? I could see it at the bottom of a comedy hour headlined by a new comedy next year.

As for B99, I really don't see how it doesn't get renewed (fortunately!)

Spot said...

That's good indeed but one might argue that the premiere ratings were already a bit underwhelming for both so they are doing nothing more than "making up" for the soft premiere. But anyway, I agree with you that this much stability is good, even if the year to year comparisons are ugly.

Spot said...

It sure is going to be strange seeing CBS go sub-2.0 during November sweeps

Spot said...

Thank you! I'll add them soon.

Spot said...

Yes, you're right about underwhelming premiere numbers.
I simply counted it in as unrecoverable losses, and my "positive" is about w2w. Perhaps I should underline it in original comment.

Spot said...

True, if studio has some syndication interest, they always can offer Fox another batch of episodes for next to nothing. And if Fox would have place for New Girl in their schedule, there you are... renewed, like you said.
That certainly wouldn't be unprecedented for Fox - there's very recent example of Raising Hope last season, and not so long ago Fringe.

I stand corrected, New Girl is not 100% dead already. However, I doubt renewal happens. First, I believe new regime wants to cancel as much Reilly's shows as viable, and New Girl will be at 88+ episodes after this season. Second, Fox probably wouldn't have other timeslot for New Girl than Friday, and it's W18-34 oriented show... do producers and/or Fox want to risk real disaster just for handful of more episodes?

Spot said...

What an extraordinary start for The Flash. With those numbers, especially given the sub-demos Lynn reported, that has got to be the most valuable scripted show to advertisers on the entire Tuesday schedule. On the freaking CDub!

Astonishing damage to New Girl too. Mindy is now legitimately the stronger show.

CBS Tuesday once again the epitome of consistency, it's just consistently muted now.

Spot said...

I get where you are coming from but I am not really sure if I feel confident saying that "FOX wouldn't have timeslot for" when right now they have so many gaps in their schedule, it's such a mess. Which shows currently on air do you see back on FOX's fall schedule next season? I would say Gotham, Sleepy Hollow, Bones (if they luck out on contracts negotiatons), B99, The Simpsons and Family Guy. Maybe something at midseason does good enough to get a fall placement but I am not feeling it. So they would have at least 3.5 gap hours on the schedule and what's without programming Fridays, again. Sure, that's exactly the amount they've premiered this fall so they could do it again but it's not hard to imagine them finding 0.5 hours for New Girl in there somewhere... I still think it's a tad more likely to be renewed than cancelled, even if it is just as placeholder for Idol.

Spot said...

NBC just cancelled Mission Control before it premiered. It's getting really common these days.

NBC's midseason schedule is still quite messy, but I am getting a better vision of what it could potentially look like.

I still say that their biggest mistake is premiering State of Affairs in November though. They should simply wait for the spring cycle of the voice and go with the sing-off for the last portion of this cycle as lead-out on Mondays. If they did that I would like to see something like this for winter and Spring:

Mondays: The Apprentice + Blacklist Reruns | The Voice + State of Affairs
Tuesday: Hollywood Game Night + Unbreakable Kimmy Smith + One Big Happy + Chicago Fire | The Voice + Marry Me + About a Boy + Chicago Fire (if marry me or boy fall to horrible levels, swap them with the midseason comedies and let them air straight through... I am still not sure which option is better)
Wednesday: Aquarius + SVU + Chicago PD
Thursday: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Mr. Robinson + Bad Judge + Parenthood | Heroes Reborn + The Blacklist + Allegiance
Friday: Dateline + Grimm + Constantine (Hannibal if it flops, if not, it airs in the summer)
Sunday: AD + Odyssey + The Slap (in some order)

Spot said...

I think AD is confirmed Sunday April 5th (Easter) premiere

Spot said...

Shame about Forever. I'll seen the last two episodes and have really enjoyed it. I guess I'll just watch it while it lasts. Makes me wish Resurrection had plateaued around a 2.5 last year. Would have been cool to go Shield/Resurrection/Forever. Would have been a nice cohesive night.

Spot said...

I'm really curious on how Toy Story of Terror and Charlie Brown Halloween combo will do tonight. It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown! Was 2.3, 2.7, and 2.2 the last three years. All of those were self starters and last year was Pumpkin plus filler. Toy Story of Terror! self started with a 3.1 last year. That is our only data point. ABC also aired it on Disney Channel and ABCFamily. I'm hoping it becomes a tradition too. It was great

Spot said...

The Flash adjusting up to 1.7 in A18-49 puts it ahead of week 2 of TVD (1.6) and matches 90210's second week from 2008. I don't have the data to confirm, but I imagine that means The Flash's second episode is on par with the highest second week in the history of the network.

Spot said...

While meaningless, Forever saw a nice little bump in total viewers in the adjusted finals while both Chicago Fire and POI shed a few It seems fairly certain ABC will air all original episodes ordered in this time slot which is an improvement over last year. It seems like a nice, inoffensive show with a likeable cast, that as others had initially joked before it even debuted, won't be with us "forever."

Spot said...

Yeah, Marry Me took a bite. But when New Girl returns in Nov, Marry Me will have shed some of its audience, and MC Jr. Will be handing it a much better lead in than 0.6. It'll be back up to its normal, merely unspectacular ratings.

Spot said...

Sadly, I think the most likely scenario is one that could easily result in the cancellation of Brooklyn Nine-Nine.


Once Bordertown is ready, Fox corrects its mistake in ending Animation Domination and reverts back to all-animation Sunday lineup (The Simpsons/Bob's Burgers/Family Guy/Bordertown) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine gets moved elsewhere (Tuesday at 8 with The Last Man on Earth?) where it sinks in the ratings.


I think New Girl is safe. If everything is bombing then the network should keep around the show where they make money on the back-end, even if that means giving it the 'Til Death treatment and shuffling it out the way to 7pm Sunday.

Spot said...

Is it possible New Girl ratings would rebound? Yes, and I hope so.
Is it likely? No. Indeed, very unlikely given show's ratings history.

Spot said...

FOX has given preferential treatment to B99 over Bob's Burgers this fall so I don't see that changing. While I think Bordertown will claim the pots FG slot, I don't really see them moving B99. They have no interest in Bob, I don't see that changing.

Spot said...

Exactly. There's no theory they would move B99 in the midseason. Hell, that's one of few things turning out good for Fox this fall. Not great, though - but "good" is great for present day Fox.
Next fall? If need be (= all newbies flop + New Girl doesn't recover), and Fox is able to restore all animation Sunday (Bordertown does good + they develop one more animation comedy for 2015-16) ... then B99 could return to Tuesday next fall, yes.

Spot said...

I agree. But assuming its third season order would be for full season it wouldn't really matter that much by then since it would be renewed for a forth season for syndication anyway!

Spot said...

Tuesday - Sunday - Tuesday - Friday.
4 seasons, 88 episodes, and a movie. I'm joking about the movie, but that would be spectacular journey. Especially for a show that got 2nd season only because Dads ratings were even lower, and other rookie comedies flopped. And with collapse of Tuesday block, and Mulaney bombing, things are starting to shape very similar this season again.

Spot said...

Yeah, it would be cool to know why he can't die, but it really isn't something that needs closure or whatnot. ABC ordered addition scripts. I'd say it is a sign of confidence, but Selfie and MLS got them too, so it means nothing

Spot said...

Well, it'll never be 2s again, or even high 1s. But it got a 1.4 just last week out of a 0.9 hole. Being asked to double a lead in of 0.6 vs. a comedy grabbing a 2.3 isn't likely to be the norm. When it comes back, MM will likely be in the high 1s, and MCj should be giving it in the area of a 1. I see 1.3-1.4 being a possibility.

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