Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/19/14

  • FINALS/CABLE UPDATE: Madam Secretary (1.5) and The Simpsons (3.6) each gained a tenth, while Mulaney (1.0) dropped back to the premiere number. For Madam, this actually put it a tenth higher than the other two episodes without an NFL overrun. Sunday Night Football (8.2) had a strong rating for this time of year but, again, was probably limited by the blowout. (It peaked at 9.1 at 9:30, then dropped to 8.4 and 8.1 from there.) The Walking Dead (7.7) was down 12% in week two, roughly on par with its week two drops historically.
  • In week four, the bleeding mostly stopped for ABC Sunday. Once Upon a Time (2.7) was steady and Revenge (1.3) was up a tenth. Resurrection (1.4) did lose another tenth in its second try against The Walking Dead, though it might adjust up (as it did last week).
  • On Fox, The Simpsons (3.5) Treehouse of Horror episode was up week-to-week even as its football lead-in appears to have declined. Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.5) seemed pretty indistinguishable from what a second-tier animated series would do with that lead-in, which is a good thing. Family Guy (2.5) also benefited from the lead-in heat. Mulaney (1.1) did not, dropping well over half of its lead-in. Considering how well the animated series repeat, this is a clear situation where Fox could easily do much better, so it may not be back here after the lineup takes a week off for the World Series.
  • CBS was basically even week-to-week as every drama hit 1.4. NBC's football grew week-to-week on Peyton Manning's record-setting night, but another blowout probably limited the rating somewhat. More after finals!


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.1 27% -8%-0.1n/a 2/2 +0% -4% +0% 1.6
Once Upon a Time 2.7 42% +0%+0.0-0.1 3/4 +29% +0% +32% 2.9
Resurrection 1.4 35% -7%-0.1+0.0 4/4 n/a -3% -7% 1.5
Revenge 1.3 33% +8%+0.1-0.1 1/4 -13% +8% +44% 1.6
60 Minutes 1.2 13% -8%-0.1n/a 4/5 -57% -8% -84% 1.7
Madam Secretary 1.5 16% +7%+0.1-0.1 3/5 n/a +3% -29% 1.8
The Good Wife 1.4 16% +8%+0.1+0.1 1/5 +0% +8% -13% 1.6
CSI 1.4 20% +0%+0.0+0.1 1/4 -30% +4% +4% 1.8
Football Night in America p2 2.0 42% +43%+0.6n/a 3/7 -35% +43% -35% 2.5
Football Night in America p3 4.1 41% +2%+0.1+0.6 4/7 -25% +0% -27% 4.2
Sunday Night Football 8.2 44% +24%+1.6+0.1 5/8 -18% +22% -19% 8.0
NFL Overrun 8.8 41% -22%-2.5n/a 5/7 +2% -22% +1660% 9.1
The OT 5.1 47% -7%-0.4-2.5 3/4 n/a -7% +467% 3.6
The Simpsons 3.6 59% +9%+0.3-0.4 2/4 n/a +9% +177% 2.7
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 2.5 61% +14%+0.3+0.3 2/4 +67% +14% +92% 2.1
Family Guy 2.5 67% +32%+0.6+0.8 2/3 n/a +47% +108% 2.3
Mulaney 1.0 56% -9%-0.1+0.8 2/3 n/a -9% -9% 1.1

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I think Fox afternoon football game (Giants @ Cowboys) finished unusually early, like before 7:20 PM. If so, it probably hurt a bit ratings of their Sunday shows.

Madam Secretary refuses to die. If it wasn't for unusually deep CBS bench, I'd even start to believe it might get back 9.

Spot said...

I am really digging Madam so I hope it gets a full season somehow, but I am finding it funny your relationship with the show lol.

Spot said...

I was puzzled by myself earlier, too.
But, at some time I realized what I hate is uncertainty. It turns out it doesn't matter if I like or hate particular show, it's just that I want to know its destiny ASAP. It really kills me when I don't know it. Once network announces something, I'm OK with everything they decide, I'm literally feeling relief.

Spot said...

Usually I would say being made by CBS would help, but seeing as CBS is also producing Hawaii 5-0, Blue Bloods, Elementary, NCIS, NCIS: NO, NCIS: LA, The Good Wife, and CSI too, that's not much of an advantage. As a guy who doesn't care for the Good Wife, loves CSI, and is so-so with Madam Sec, I hope it gets no back 9 so CSI can have a better slot

Spot said...

Saving the full Best Case/Worst Case for next Monday, since almost all the shows premiere next week. But I'm getting The Millers numbers on the record since it premieres tonight.

These numbers assume CBS follows its rather silly current plan for The Millers, moving it back to Thursday in January. I could be off on this, but I figured about half the season would air after original Big Bang, about 1/4 after 2 Broke Girls, about 1/4 after Big Bang repeats.

Best 2.35 / Likeliest 1.93 / Worst 1.55.

Spot said...

I am not sure if The Millers airs that long after Big Bang originals. My guess is that Mom never gets back to Monday this year. Thursdays January onwards will be some sort of combination of Big Bang, Millers, Mom and Men, with the Odd Couple eventually joining in. Mike and Molly will take over after 2 Broke Girls on Monday.

So it could be Big Bang + Mom + Men + Millers and then Big Bang + Odd Couple + Mom + Millers or, alternatively, Big Bang + Millers + Men + Mom and then Big Bang + Odd Couple + Mom + Millers.

This is a very silly plan and of course it is very hard to guess something for the show in these circumstances. I think it can even hit a 1.5 on Mondays following 2 Broke Girls, it could look very awful. But if it gets a post Bang slot for a quarter of the season that should boost it enough. Meh, it's literally a shot in the dark I say 1.72

Spot said...


Spot said...

I completely agree. I thought about putting some kind of contingency number but there are simply too many possibilities, and I don't really want to project future moves in my main number. Very strange situation. If the % of post-BBT eps is way off I may just not count it.

Spot said...

I think there are quite a few shows with unknown fates this year, though I expect most of the situations to be cleared as the season progresses. But as of right now, these shows have unknown fates, to some degree:
- Last Man Standing
- Cristela
- Revenge
- Resurrection
- Madam Secretary
- The entire slate of CBS drama veterans (H50, Blue Bloods, CSI, The Good Wife) though here my guess is that all of them come back, even if one gets The Mentalist treatment

- Reign
- Jane the Virgin
- New Girl
- The Mindy Project

Spot said...

It's impossible to guess how CBS will schedule comedies later this season. It's easier to guess the winning lotto numbers. So I gave up.

One thing is 100% sure, though. They're not going back to 4 hours of comedies at any moment of this season. Inventory math is simple:
52 hours of drama/reality on the bench between Mentalist, Cyber, Battle Creek and Undercover Boss.
+ at least 18 hours of back order for dramas (Scorpion, NCIS: NO)


18 hours of comedy at most - on the bench are Mike&Molly with max 22 episodes, and The Odd Couple max 13 episodes.

Spot said...

Fox ordered Ryan Murphy's horror dramedy Scream Queens straight to series, 15 episodes.

So here's mock schedule for 2015-16. First!

Mon: Gotham / Sleepy Hollow
Tue: Scream Queens / new comedy (or B99) / new comedy
Wed: new reality (or Hell's Kitchen) / new drama (or midseason renewal)
Thu: Bones / new drama (or new reality at 8, and Bones at 9)
Fri: Masterchef Junior / repeats
Sun: Simpsons / B99 (or Bordertown) / Family Guy / something animated

Spot said...

I wouldn't completely rule out a return to 4 hours of comedy. CBS has a ton of drama/reality inventory, but everything bar CSI: Cyber feels like it can be pushed into summer.

Spot said...

Then we can agree we completely disagree.
I said 100%, and I'm standing behind it.

BTW, if there would be any remaining episodes of comedies, those can also be pushed into summer (rookies) or rolled over to the season 2105-16 (Mike&Molly). Just as easy, if not even more easy given those are sitcoms with no actual plot lines.

Spot said...

Yes, we'll have to agree to disagree.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's unlikely, if only because I'm not expecting good things from The McCarthys or the relocated Millers, but I don't think it's quite that unlikely.

CBS will want to premiere their new comedies in-season to give them a shot at success. Rolling Mike & Molly into summer would make things messy, given it has 22 episodes, is unlikely to get a fall slot going forward and I can't see Warner wanting to cut its order or CBS double-pumping it for months at a time.

And I've long felt that the off-brand Battle Creek is destined for summer anyway.

Spot said...

Who said anything about rolling of Mike and Molly into summer? I said rolling over remaining episodes to the next fall.

Let's say unlikely case happens: The McCarthys gets 22 episodes, Mom and The Millers both doesn't collapse, and The Odd Couple airs all 13 episodes (after inheriting timeslot from TAAHM short season).
If I understood well, you would move Scorpion to another timeslot, and move one or more dramas (or UB) to summer... and all of that just to allow lowest possible priority Mike & Molly to air all of its 22 episodes during this season? Really? Sorry, but that's impossible to happen.

Spot said...

I agree with you but just a correction: I think Two and a Half Men has full season order. I still expect it to finish early a la Mother last year though

Spot said...

Okay, so here's what you're saying: there is 0% chance that Scorpion struggles without TBBT as its lead-in, leading CBS to put a show that has been scheduled there for four straight seasons back in that timeslot?

And "move one or more dramas"? None of them are scheduled! It doesn't matter if the final season of The Mentalist airs in summer instead of increasingly low-rated repeats, Battle Creek is probably more compatible with Big Brother than anything else on CBS, and they can air Undercover Boss anytime as Fox amply proved with Hotel Hell this summer.

And I'm wondering what you think happens to Mike & Molly in your proposed scenario? CBS gives it a fall slot (despite The Millers, The McCarthy and The Odd Couple all being successful) and then airs 30+ episodes next season? Or do they keep rolling them over until the show ends?

And are CBS even contractually allowed to do that? Remember that CBS aren't the only party involved, as Warner has a syndication agreement with FX. I know odd episodes occasionally get rolled between seasons but nothing in that scale. The only precedent I can think of is the Fox animated comedies, and they're a special situation anyhow due to production schedules.

Spot said...

Wow you are brave, I do not venture into FOX's fall schedule at all this soon. Doing its midseason schedule is already VERY challenging.

Speaking of which, this is what I would do for them:
Monday: Gotham + Sleepy Hollow
Tuesday: American Idol + American Idol (Voice hiatus)
Wednesday: American Idol + Empire
Thursday: Bones + The Following
Friday: Backstorm + repeats

Monday: Gotham + Wayward Pines
Tuesday: Weird Loners + New Girl + Glee (Surrender)
Wednesday: American Idol + American Idol
Thursday: Bones + The Following
Friday: Backstorm + Repeats

However, this is sadly what I think will happen:
Monday: Gotham + Sleepy Hollow | Gotham + The Following
Tuesday: Glee + New Girl + Weird Loners
Wednesday: American Idol + American Idol
Thursday: American Idol + Empire
Friday: Bones + Backstorm

Spot said...

Scorpion shows no signs of collapsing, nad it's 99% sure it won't collapse, and that it would get back 9 in a week or two from now.
In case it somehow collapses, they would put Battle Creek in its timeslot. That's exactly why they have as much as 3 backup dramas - because of the risky scheduling with premiering 4 new fall dramas.

As for Mike&Molly, (if ratings would guarantee renewal), then CBS would simply order less episodes for the next season, around 13. That would make it around 22 episodes with remaining ones from this season.
As for studio, by contract CBS is obligated to pay them airing fee for all ordered episodes. It's on their discretion when to air those. They may even choose not to air it at all. Obviously, it rarely happens for not-rookie shows.

Spot said...

No, Idol not will be 3 hours all weeks. Probably only for auditions (first 3 weeks) and in final week.
That will allow them to keep Bones at Thursday 8 PM on weeks with 1 or 2 hours of Idol.
Glee goes to Thursday 9 PM, they will not put anything even remotely valuable against Scandal/Blacklist combo.
For that reason Empire is Wednesday 9 PM.
Backstrom very probable Tuesday 8 PM - because nothing else is left.

Comedies - inventory:
Bordertown - 13 episodes, I'm pretty sure they said it won't be ready until midseason.
Weird Loners - 6 episodes
The Last Man on Earth - "around 10 episodes":

Comedies - schedule:

Sun 9:30 PM - November to January Bob's Burgers, followed by Bordertown
Sun 7:30 PM - November to January Mulaney, followed by Bob's Burgers
Tue 9:30 PM - 15 episodes of The Mindy Project, in March The Last Man on Earth
Tue 9 PM - 22 episodes of New Girl, in April Weird Loners
Sun 8 PM, 8:30 PM, 9 PM - no in-season changes

Spot said...

Looks like week two of the Walking Dead is a 7.7. Completely reasonable post premiere drop for a serialized drama. In fact it would have been its top Plus ever if it had been the premiere.

Spot said...

I never watched Idol but I watch The Voice so I assume it's similar in format of the episodes. Would split the performance shows on a weekly basis really be a good thing/ feasible thing? In my opinion, FOX should have three big priorities for midseason:
- make sure that the bleeding stops for Idol. It will never be a deathstar again but it would be very valuable to them if it turned into a DWTS type of player that does an unspectacular but solid job when needed, allowing them to focus on other fronts. I am not really sure if jerking around the show and messing up with the format of the episodes is the best way to go there
- continue to support Gotham to make sure it remains a viable option for them to launch something out of next season. This includes promotion, being careful with the type of breaks they subject it to.
- get behind something. They were clearly behind Gotham, and rightfully so, this fall, and it paid off, so it proves that even the horrible FOX of today can still launch something. I have no clue if that's something is Wayward Pines, Backstorm, Empire or a pair of new comedies, but pick something and go all in on it. Promotion, schedule, etc.

I would schedule everything based on these three priorities, and let the rest simply fall where there is room (the same logic you are using to put backstorm in that slot).

Additionally, and this is not a direct goal but more of an opportunity, winters are wide open for the taking. They will be by far the easiest time of the year to attack anything. On Mondays, there will be no voice, though I don't think it's particularly relevant there. On Tuesdays, there will be no the voice (and to a much smaller extent, also no MAOS) which is very relevant for FOX since the voice has similar skew to its shows. Wednesdays won't actually change much. On Thursdays, there will be no TGIT and no Blacklist until late february. They will be crazy if they don't try to take advantage of Tuesday/Thursday somehow, which is why I like the idea of Idol airing on Tuesdays in winter before the voice returns.

Spot said...

With this SNF game, the franchise is pretty much back to even on a y2y basis. Though the first five games this season was down almost half a point. I don't follow college football but hopefully ABC has at least one more big game this year.

Spot said...

I am very curious as to when you will publish the updated on the true formula that you've made. The Sunday issue is finally corrected!

Spot said...

Thanks to Once Upon a Time big spikes ABC is doing pretty well on Sundays. Resurrection doesn't look like a long-term player, but by holding even with Revenge's pace last season and Revenge doing much better than Betrayal the network is holding strong.

I do wonder if 60 Minutes will fall below 10% demo skew during the regular season this year. It amuses me that AFV was just a tick weaker but twice as strong in the demo.

Fox needs to pull Mulaney immediately. I expect Mulaney and Bob's Burgers to flip-flop after the World Series, even though that'll probably mean that the animated show will get bumped back to 7:30 for Bordertown in Winter/Spring.

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