Spotted Ratings, Sunday 1/18/15

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The AFC Championship Game ended up at a 13.9 demo rating, down a stark 27% from the 19.0 Fox got for the NFC game in primetime last year. But a comparison of the closing portions of the games is even more drastic. Last year's game got as high as a 20.7 at 9:00. This year peaked at 15.3 in the 8:00 half-hour and dropped from there: to 14.3 at 8:30, 14.0 at 9:00 and 11.8 at 9:30.
• Also, Mulaney (1.2) adjusted down but still had a series high, joined in progress on the East Coast at 7:06. The final rating for its lead-in, the NFC Championship post-game, was a 5.5. Adding that to the True formula takes Mulaney to its lowest True ever. So in reality, the actual lead-in for the formula should probably be something lower (like a 4.0ish). But I'm sticking with the 5.5 since it's the only thing I have.

• CBS' AFC Championship Game ruled Sunday primetime, but a big blowout figures to put the game's rating well behind last year's NFC game on Fox, and it also hurt the special sampling for Scorpion (3.0). The preliminary 3.0 covers only the 10:30 half-hour; it does not include the first few minutes in the 10:00 half-hour (5.6) or the last 20ish minutes after primetime. More once time zone-adjusted numbers are available, but it should go way behind last year's The Following premiere (4.4).
• UPDATE: Scorpion got 12.29 million viewers and a 3.2 demo rating in time zone-adjusted numbers, only managing to tie the series premiere in the demo. (And pending further adjustments, it had fewer total viewers than its previous original episode!) This was over 25% behind last year's NFC lead-out The Following (4.4), but we'll have to see after finals how the last 30 minutes of the game compared from year-to-year.

• ABC's Galavant (0.9) took another massive blow in week three, losing any meaningful separation with the ABC Sunday dramas (though admittedly it faced a stronger portion of the game). Tack on Resurrection (0.7) and Revenge (0.9, slightly up week-to-week) and ABC's three original scripted hours actually lost head-to-head against Fox repeats and NBC's movie Bridesmaids (0.9).

• Fox's Mulaney (1.5) is currently on track for a series high due to a lead-in from the late-afternoon NFC Championship. But it could adjust down heavily depending on when the post-game ended.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/23/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: CBS' 60 Minutes (3.2) and Madam Secretary (1.6) went down after the overrun was properly accounted for, leaving them at pretty unsurprising levels. The Simpsons (1.5) dropped another tenth, putting it down an even 50% week-to-week. And Sunday Night Football (8.1) was up a point vs. last week.

• ABC was well above average thanks to the three-hour American Music Awards (3.8), though the show was down 16% vs. last year's final.

• The NFL overrun shifted back over to CBS; we'll have to wait for finals since the overrun ended in the middle of the 7:30 half-hour, but none of the dramas appear too out of the ordinary based on prelims. And NBC's Cowboys/Giants Sunday Night Football likely posted the biggest SNF rating in at least a month.

• Fox had a very bad night without the overrun and with the extra competition. Mulaney (0.7) had a quiet first episode at 7:30, helping to derail The Simpsons (1.6) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5) (though Brooklyn can at least point to its continued positive retention). And after yet another repeat of Family Guy (1.2), Bob's Burgers (0.9) crashed by nearly half week-to-week in an alarmingly Mulaney-esque performance.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/9/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (3.0) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.9) each picked up a tenth. Sunday Night Football (6.5) indeed hit a season low, but it was only a couple tenths behind last week.

• The NFL overrun swung back to Fox, but it ended relatively early. So The Simpsons (2.9), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.8) and Family Guy (1.8) benefited a good bit less than normal; Nine-Nine was only a tenth above last week's no-overrun result and Family Guy hit a new low. Since Fox insists on continuing to air Mulaney (0.9), it went back up with the return of an original lead-in.

• CBS dramas Madam Secretary (1.4) and The Good Wife (1.4) were back at normal non-overrun levels, while CSI (1.2) crashed to a new low.

• On ABC, it's been getting closer for awhile, and it finally happened: Revenge (1.3) beat its much-better supported lead-in Resurrection (1.2) (at least in prelims). Once Upon a Time (2.5) was down a tenth.

• NBC's huge blowout on Sunday Night Football could be headed for a season low. More after finals.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/2/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was a bounce-back Sunday for ABC's drama trio of Once Upon a Time (2.5), Resurrection (1.4) and Revenge (1.2). That may in part be thanks to the 7:00 hour, which surged with the re-installation of America's Funniest Home Videos (1.2) after last week's much weaker special.

• CBS had what looks like one of its bigger NFL overruns from a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning showdown. The lineup started very close to 8:00 Eastern and appears to have significantly boosted 60 Minutes (3.3) even over recent overrun results. And Madam Secretary (1.8) likely posted its biggest number since the premiere.

• For the first time in a month, Fox aired its regular lineup without the NFL overrun and saw Bob's Burgers (1.5), The Simpsons (2.0) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.6) roughly match their deliveries from that night. Then came yet another Family Guy repeat (1.2) for some reason. And finally airing in a bad situation, Mulaney (0.7) plummeted well below its premiere rating from a month ago. Maybe this will be enough to get it pulled.

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/19/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS/CABLE UPDATE: Madam Secretary (1.5) and The Simpsons (3.6) each gained a tenth, while Mulaney (1.0) dropped back to the premiere number. For Madam, this actually put it a tenth higher than the other two episodes without an NFL overrun. Sunday Night Football (8.2) had a strong rating for this time of year but, again, was probably limited by the blowout. (It peaked at 9.1 at 9:30, then dropped to 8.4 and 8.1 from there.) The Walking Dead (7.7) was down 12% in week two, roughly on par with its week two drops historically.

• In week four, the bleeding mostly stopped for ABC Sunday. Once Upon a Time (2.7) was steady and Revenge (1.3) was up a tenth. Resurrection (1.4) did lose another tenth in its second try against The Walking Dead, though it might adjust up (as it did last week).

• On Fox, The Simpsons (3.5) Treehouse of Horror episode was up week-to-week even as its football lead-in appears to have declined. Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.5) seemed pretty indistinguishable from what a second-tier animated series would do with that lead-in, which is a good thing. Family Guy (2.5) also benefited from the lead-in heat. Mulaney (1.1) did not, dropping well over half of its lead-in. Considering how well the animated series repeat, this is a clear situation where Fox could easily do much better, so it may not be back here after the lineup takes a week off for the World Series.

• CBS was basically even week-to-week as every drama hit 1.4. NBC's football grew week-to-week on Peyton Manning's record-setting night, but another blowout probably limited the rating somewhat. More after finals!

First Two Weeks, Mulaney

WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.0
Lead-in: Family Guy (1.9)
Competition: Resurrection (2.0 before Nielsen revision, 1.9 at 9:30), The Good Wife (1.4 overall, 1.5 at 9:30) Sunday Night Football (7.4 overall, 8.2 at 9:30).

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/12/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Nielsen's ABC inflation is over, but Once Upon a Time (2.7) and Resurrection (1.5) still got some help from finals. Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.2) also picked up a tenth, while Madam Secretary (1.4) declined to the same number it got without the NFL two weeks ago.

• CABLE UPDATE: The Walking Dead had at least one more series high in it, posting a stratospheric 17.3 million viewers and 8.7 A18-49 rating. It wasn't exactly another of those massive TWD explosions; the A18-49 rating was only 6% above the 8.2 that kicked off last season. But when we're talking about comparisons with a series that had already pulled off some of the most impressive ratings in TV history, every step farther up the ladder should not be taken for granted. Amazing.

• Once Upon a Time (2.6) dropped another 16% from last week's 3.1 preliminary (seemingly the more reliable number for comparison given the Nielsen issues). The Frozen thing remains a big win, as this was still on the year-to-year upside, but the margin is shrinking. ABC then saw Resurrection (1.4) take another large drop at 9/8c, likely at least in part due to the premiere of The Walking Dead in the hour. This was 22% behind even last week's prelim and also trailed the year-ago episode of Revenge in the hour. And Revenge (1.2) inched down again to a preliminary new low (but remains a huge improvement vs. last year's Betrayal).

• Fox got a big boost from an even more massive late-afternoon NFL lead-in than usual. The Simpsons (3.3) zoomed back up by over 60% week-to-week, and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.1) continued to do pretty close to what could be expected of a second-tier animated series. Even lowly Mulaney (1.1) picked up a tenth week-to-week, though its Family Guy lead-in (1.7) was in repeat mode.

• On CBS, Madam Secretary (1.5) and CSI (1.4) each improved by a tenth on when CBS last lacked the national NFL lead-in two weeks ago.

• Football and The Walking Dead updates to come!

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 10/5/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC had another huge adjustment Sunday, with Once Upon a Time up two tenths to 3.3 (now 27% above week two of last season) and Resurrection (2.0) also gaining two tenths to stay ahead of last season's low point. Revenge (1.4) also picked up a tenth. Madam Secretary ended up at 1.6, up two tenths week-to-week. It's not a huge shocker given the lead-in spike, but it suggests the show has at the very least stabilized.

• After a huge opening Sunday, it was the worst of all worlds for Fox's second Sunday. First, the animated anchors showed absolutely no residual heat from their massive openers last week. In fact, it was the opposite. The Simpsons (2.0) was down nearly 50% week-to-week and Family Guy (1.9) nearly sixty percent. For Family Guy, this marked a new series low just a week after its highest result in over three years. And second, the 9:30 newbie Mulaney (1.0) had a truly ghastly showing even given its lead-in's softness, dropping nearly 50%. (Silver lining: at least Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.6) still looks semi-respectable at 8:30.) Bob's Burgers (1.4) did OK at 7:30 (though it had some local NFL help) and seems like a good bet to replace Mulaney at 9:30 very soon. Fox is actually airing a Family Guy repeat at 9:00 next week, so it was almost like they were counting on this Mulaney result.

• On ABC, the show that seemingly should've been most inflated last week may actually end up holding up the best in week two. Once Upon a Time had a still very stout 3.1 at 8/7c, still up double-digits year-to-year and just 16% behind last week's premiere even before finals adjustments. Resurrection (1.8) was the show that really got mowed down, preliminarily 28% below last week's big opener, while Revenge (1.3) dropped two tenths. But we'll have to see what happens in finals!

• More on CBS after finals, though CBS actually allowed the lineup to start on time for viewers of 49ers/Chiefs rather than shift them to the blowout in San Diego. It looks like Madam Secretary may have gone up a bit, but we'll see.

SpotVault - Mulaney (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

Mulaney

Sundays, 9:30/8:30c, Fox

The Question, Sunday 10/5/14: Will Mulaney Be a Ratings Laugher?

Tonight, Fox fills out its Sunday mixture of animated anchors and live-action comedies with the premiere of Mulaney. SNL writer John Mulaney's project ended up on Fox after failing to get a pickup at NBC. But the positive buzz seems to have died in the transition, with the show reportedly watered down from what made it promising in its early development. To boot, it doesn't seem like a great match with the raunchier Fox animated comedies. Will Mulaney be a ratings laugher? That's The Question for Sunday, October 5, 2014.

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 9/8c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Sunday 9/8c hour, where ABC will try to salvage a long-term success out of the huge-starting and quick-dropping Resurrection. Meanwhile, Fox's live-action Sunday comedy experiment continues with a newbie at 9:30.