Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/23/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: CBS' 60 Minutes (3.2) and Madam Secretary (1.6) went down after the overrun was properly accounted for, leaving them at pretty unsurprising levels. The Simpsons (1.5) dropped another tenth, putting it down an even 50% week-to-week. And Sunday Night Football (8.1) was up a point vs. last week.
  • ABC was well above average thanks to the three-hour American Music Awards (3.8), though the show was down 16% vs. last year's final.
  • The NFL overrun shifted back over to CBS; we'll have to wait for finals since the overrun ended in the middle of the 7:30 half-hour, but none of the dramas appear too out of the ordinary based on prelims. And NBC's Cowboys/Giants Sunday Night Football likely posted the biggest SNF rating in at least a month.
  • Fox had a very bad night without the overrun and with the extra competition. Mulaney (0.7) had a quiet first episode at 7:30, helping to derail The Simpsons (1.6) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5) (though Brooklyn can at least point to its continued positive retention). And after yet another repeat of Family Guy (1.2), Bob's Burgers (0.9) crashed by nearly half week-to-week in an alarmingly Mulaney-esque performance.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.3 24% -19%-0.3n/a 3/6 -7% -16% -7% 1.6
American Music Awards 3.8 42% -16% +84% -16% 3.8
ABC:+64%-16%
NFL Overrun 8.2 40% -2%-0.2n/a 9/12 -9% +447% +447% 7.9
60 Minutes 3.2 24% +88%+1.5n/a 3/10 +100% +88% +94% 1.8
Madam Secretary 1.6 16% +7%+0.1+1.5 3/10 n/a +14% +10% 1.6
The Good Wife 1.4 17% +8%+0.1+0.1 3/10 +8% +12% +0% 1.6
CSI 1.3 21% +0%+0.0+0.1 4/7 -38% +0% -19% 1.7
CBS:+90%+60%
Football Night in America p2 2.4 46% +26%+0.5n/a 3/12 +33% +26% +33% 2.6
Football Night in America p3 4.0 44% +8%+0.3+0.5 6/12 -9% +5% -9% 3.9
Sunday Night Football 8.1 46% +14%+1.0+0.3 6/13 -17% +13% -14% 7.7
NBC:-1%-23%
The Simpsons (R) 0.9 50% -90% -90% 1.3
Mulaney 0.7 54% -22%-0.2-0.9 5/6 n/a -82% -88% 0.8
The Simpsons 1.5 55% -50%-1.5-3.2 8/8 -50% -50% -50% 1.7
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.5 63% -32%-0.7-1.5 8/8 +0% -32% -21% 1.6
Famiy Guy (R) 1.2 62% -45% -45% 1.3
Bob's Burgers 0.9 60% -47%-0.8-1.0 4/4 -53% -47% -53% 1.1
Fox:-70%-72%
Big4:+6%-25%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

139 comments:

Spot said...

My theory that Bob's Burgers could actually do worse in its new timeslot proved correct. I actually thought they

Spot said...

With no ABC around for me to watch (AFV, Once, Ressurection), I had an interesting Sunday. Saw Simpsons and Brooklyn Nine-Nine for the first time this season and watched all of The Good Wife just to actually be able to watch overruned CSI. Still not seeing the Good Wife love, and apparantly that episode was A material.

Spot said...

That's not a wholly fair comparison. Bob's had way more competition (SNF, AMA's, The Walking Dead) than usual. But I think Bob's at least did better than Mulaney would have done.

Spot said...

Ok, seriously, are there production issues with Family Guy this season? Is there a labor/contract dispute? Are the writers all focused on Bordertown? Is Fox stockpiling new episodes for the Winter/Spring? Does Seth MacFarlene have laryngitis? At this point I don't think we are going to see three weeks of new episodes in a row until either January or March (February's feels unlikely because of the Super Bowl and either the Grammys or the Oscars).

I think the AMA's may have been dinged by SNF since it was two NFC East teams facing off and they happen to either represent the largest media market (NYC) or are "America's Team."

Spot said...

WHY is FOX STILL AIRING MULANEY? Just pull it completely FOX!

Spot said...

I might have an answer. Family Guy wasn't picked up for another season. I mean think about it. Even before this season's schedule was announced, while Simpsons and Bob's Burgers got new season orders, Family Guy never earned one, even after the Simpsons Guy announcement. In fact, I don't think any of the animated shows got a new season order so far in this season. I mean, there is zero chance Family Guy, and especially Simpsons will end any time soon. The apocalypse would happen, and Simpsons will still keep going.

Spot said...

Madam Secretary is the one show I regret picking Cancel (confident). If I could back in time, I would change it to Cancel (not confident), or even Renew (not confident). It's truly bubble show now, in a sense I think it now depends solely on how much CBS will like their pilots in May. But it was too tempting not to go for 2 points after huge 0.6 drop in 2nd episode. Who'd thunk it will hold so well later?

I had only 6 Renew picks. Those were obvious 6 renewals, out of which 5 I had as "confident", and only Scorpion as "not confident" (don't ask), and obviously I wouldn't change those to "Cancel".

I had many Cancel picks, mainly "confident". In hindsight, I'd like if I had it "not confident" for Laura, and Jane the Virgin. But, unlike in Madam Secretary case, not on show's own merit, but rather on those two shows' direct competition doing lousy.


I wonder if others would like to change some of First Two Weeks picks they made?

Spot said...

Most proud of (some of these can still burn me at the end of the season lol, but for the time being it appears I was right):
- going cancel confident on Marry Me
- going renew confident on Scorpion
- going cancel confident on Stalker, though to be fair most of us called that one (by the time, I was re-reading my comment, I was already saying that I made the wrong call with Madam)

Least proud of:
- going cancel confident on Madam Secretary. It's especially frustrating because I had a gut feeling about it. When going cancel confident I wrote : "I still believe this might not be as obvious as we think if only because
I don't honestly believe CBS had different expectations for this than
we all had and what it turned out to be.". But at the end of the day I was wrong about it. Should have deferred.
- going cancel, but not confident with forever. I really had chicago fire deja vus in there
(-this one I even feel bad for mentioning because it seems so easy now, but going with cancel, but not confident with bad judge)

Cristela will probably be axed but I can live with my cancel (not confident); same goes for Jane the Virgin. Laura is probably a legitimate bubble show I am also happy with my cancel non confident.

Spot said...

Fox should put Mulaney out of its misery. It hurt the entire lineup, the production issues with Family Guy (no new season didn't help either). B99 did well, since, unlike Simpsons, faces Giants-Cowboys.

MS ratings are NFL-driven but it is seriously a toss-up, spring will tell us the truth.

Spot said...

I figured Family Guy was so far into its production schedule (as most animated shows are) that they had many episodes in the can, or about to be completed, and that Fox therefore didn't have to "renew" the show for this season. But this is a possibility, too.

Or maybe Fox is going to try having as many episodes as possible to support Last Man on Earth later in the season.

Spot said...

Spot, maybe to bring back "Episodes counted" column?
That way it's more intuitive this is for "last-one-third", and not entire season. At least, to me.

Spot said...

Their #1 comedy is in True ratings bellow their lowest rated drama (and unscripted too), That's not something one sees often.

Spot said...

Done. Thanks.

Spot said...

Yeah I have no doubt that Mulaney would've been at a 0.6 or something.

Spot said...

Spot, I think episode from 11/18/2014 adjusted up to 1.6 in finals.

Spot said...

Looks like only 1 person chose renew.
I was the 1 to choose cancel without confident, but that's still likely a loss for me.

Spot said...

Elementary is a disaster!!!

Spot said...

Two things to close off the night:
1. Cristela has been picked up for a back nine. Insert fantasy schedule below.
2. Because of Ferguson, many shows are preempted tonight. At least, my CBS affiliate has. I don't know about other channels in my area, but expect some inflation at 9 and especially 10.

Spot said...

Yeah, I saw it.
That's bad news for Shark Tank. Lousy, incompatible lead-in.for the entire season.
And bad news for my idea of Beyond the Tank at Fri 8 PM. Now it's obvious ABC plans it either for Tue 8 PM in March, wither Fri 9 PM in summer.

However, back 9 for Cristela isn't WTF moment like those 9 were for flop that Forever is. Because it'is rather inexpensive for ABC. Cristela gotta be among the most cheap big 4 scripted shows (multicam with noname cast), and airing fee gotta be very low too (it airs on lower standards Friday). Then, perhaps it breaks even for ABC network even with as low as 0.8 A18-49 ratings.
But now it will air in low HUT spring, very likely will drop bellow that 0.8 at some point (not the average, some episodes only), so I'm not pessimistic about its renewal chances.

Spot said...

Shark Tank has had lousy, incompatible lead-ins before. And while the show would probably gain two or three ticks having a version of itself as a lead-in, there's more upside to the improvement it could post on Tuesdays at 8:00 or somewhere on ABC's summer schedule like Thursdays at 8:00 (Beyond the Tank/Rookie Blue/How to Get Away with Murder (r)*)or Sundays at 9:00 (America's Funniest Home Videos/Wipeout/Beyond the Tank/Castle (r)). If Beyond becomes a summer show I would not burn it on Fridays.

*: I'd bring back HTGAWM for a summer run somewhere on the schedule to bring back some awareness since it'll end in February

Spot said...

Plus 2 Monday Night Football games inflating more affiliates than usual. It's kind crazy. No often you have Presidential addresses messing up TV 4 days apart. Shame about the timing of Ferguson. At least Zimmeran's case had the decency to have the verdict on a Saturday not during sweeps

Spot said...

I always have this theory that when a show's audience has dwindled down to a small one (like The Good Wife relative to early seasons), or The Mindy Project, that the people left watching are those hardcore fans, which makes these shows easier to become "critically acclaimed". For example, The Mindy Project premiered to mixed reviews, and lost viewers after two seasons, so naturally, the ones left behind are the huge fans that absolutely love the show, giving great reviews, and making it "critically acclaimed", when in fact it's because people who disliked the show have already stopped watching and couldn't even be bothered to write a negative review, leading to the "universal acclaim" amongst those that still watch. You can also see that in Revenge, where most of the people who hated the plots and soap drama left, and those still watching are most praising season 4 as the best ever.

Spot said...

I agree with what Chris L had. While it would be nice to see Shark Tank gain 2 or 3 tents having a version of itself as lead-in, there are multiple timeslots in which Beyond the Tank can make much more of a difference, particularly Tuesdays at 8, yes.

ABC is having a great season, yes, but they aren't having a season great enough to afford replacing hours that are still doing fairly ok (TGIF) when they have hours completely dead elsewhere (Tuesdays at 8, Tuesdays at 10). I know you disagree, but I am happy about this development.

I am also happy that they avoided the temptation of plugging Fresh off the boat here. I suspect there would be only marginal improvement on Cristela (if anything) and the most likely outcome would be even worse ratings; moreover, the promotional resources are better focused elsewhere. I am however curious about where the show will be scheduled. I thought it was going to be a burn-off, so not important, but ABC continues to release all these promos for it, I am getting intrigued. I have to think that if it were to premiere the 1st of January and air along with the taste we would have had an announcement by now. If ABC really likes it, then I think they should try it after DWTS on Monday. It's the easiest thing in the world to replace anyway, so no big deal if it flops.

Spot said...

I agree about Murder being brought back for repeats in the summer, though it appears that ABC will already be repeating it after the taste during the winter, but still.

Regardless, something needs to be made about ABC's summer schedule as a whole. Last year, their Thursays, Sundays and even Tuesdays were downright embarrassing. They need to make some effort there. The Canadian imports are fine for lower priority 10pm slots and such like they did with Motive IMO but they can't have stuff like Black Box, The Quest and Rookie Blue airing for most of the first two Thursday hours. Wives Club will probably end up in the summer which should help but it would only be a start.

Spot said...

Last Man on Earth won't even get a FG lead-in for its premiere.It will lead out of B99 with a one hour premiere, so I don't know. I think they have very very few family guy episodes this year.

Spot said...

Shark Tank gaining two or three ticks should be their top priority. Because at some $60 million of profit per year, Shark Tank is ABC network's top earner (total, not per hour). Shark Tank is megahit thanks to very low production cost in combination with rather high ratings. So 2 ticks = $10 million more, 3 ticks = $15 million more. And because it's risk free - every time they tried something compatible at 8 PM (like itself), Shark Tank spiked in ratings. While your proposed moves include risk, and are leaving on table free money from increased ST ratings.

As for that TGIF block, its existence is absurd, they need to scratch it. If ratings were any good, they would already use that block to fix hole somewhere, maybe Tuesday 8 PM. But of course they're not doing that, as ratings are low, two more ticks down and would be unacceptable even for Friday. Even at current acceptable level of ratings, that block earns something like 15% of money Shark Tank earns, while those comedies are in a process hurting their golden goose. That multicam block needs to go. Elsewhere, or forever? I don't care.

Spot said...

Putting compatible reality show at Friday 8 PM would surely improve timeslot, and help Shark Tank earn even more. We know it from tests when Shark Tank was lead-in for itself.
Putting such reality show elsewhere would improve troubled timeslot, but only maybe would help lead-out.

All of that is, if that new reality show would be a success, or at least does OK. If it would flop, it's irrelevant where it flops.

Spot said...

While that's possible, and very likely true re: Family Guy episodes, a one-hour premiere is needed if there's a 13 episode order for Last Man. Debuting on March 1 only gives the show 12 weeks between that date and the final Sunday of May sweeps (May 17).

Spot said...

Ah true you are right. I was lazy and didn't make the calculations.

Spot said...

Part of what I think has hurt the limited-run shows like The Following, Sleepy Hollow, Under the Dome, etc. is that one they finish their initial run they disappear from the schedule. Older serialized dramas like Grey's Anatomy and Scandal already have a fan base, while sitcoms and procedural dramas both repeat better and are probably in syndication so there's still awareness of the shows. And while it started as a midseason show that has been confirmed as a limited-run series, I like that The CW had The 100 run new episodes deep into June against mostly repeats to try gaining some fans and kept it on to keep the show in the audience's mind.


That's my long-winded way of saying that ABC should put HTGAWM reruns on the summer sked, preferably in its original timeslot. And since Rookie Blue hasn't changed nights throughout its run, go ahead and keep it at 9:00 since it's a marginal player that would not be of much help to an original series at 10:00.


As for Sunday, perhaps that's where Astronaut Wives Club goes.

Spot said...

We will never agree on this I think, so we have to agree to disagree.

By the way, how do you bold up stuff when writing here? Or put italics, etc? Sorry to ask, I just have no clue!

Spot said...

I also look at it this way: Sony owns Shark Tank, while Disney/ABC owns SHIELD. ABC has more incentive to do anything to help a property it owns make more money and generate revenue even after it leaves the sked in first-run. Therefore, ABC could either take the immediate money grab by marginally boosting Shark Tank with the spin-off or take the long game by trying to stabilize SHIELD with Beyond the Tank as a lead-in.


Is it a gamble? Yes. But it's less of a gamble than programming a complete unknown drama that's more expensive, and it can pay dividends by helping SHIELD and reducing the possibility of having to dole out makegoods to advertisers.

Spot said...

You can use html in posts to make things bold (< b >text< /b >), italized ( < i >text< /i >), or underlined (< u >text < /u >). It's also how your hyperlink things ( < a href="linktopreviouswebsite" >text< /a >).



Just remove the spacing in my text examples for it to work.

Spot said...

HTML tags.
I cannot write here how exactly, because it only would make text appear bold. So I googled one example:
http://tutorialehtml.com/en/htmlt/bold.php

Spot said...

Thanks!

Spot said...

Thanks a lot!

Spot said...

I'll be brief-er, which compared to your last comment isn't that difficult. :-P

Ok, sure, Fox reran The Following. But it was over the summer. Then it disappeared entirely for 4 months. There's no argument that that's helpful.

And it was almost the same for Sleepy Hollow; it reemerged on Fox's schedule at the tail end of the summer, but it was out of its timeslot. This one also had external circumstances going against it as you mentioned with Scorpion coming on the scene and Fox's malaise in general. However, as you mention, a much stronger lead-in from Gotham should have helped the show at least stay even compared to the tail end of Hollow's first season run.

As for The 100, while it should have had some advantages (higher fall HUT, more original Arrow's as a lead-in) it also had more negatives (more original competition as well as events like the World Series and the CMAs).

Spot said...

I don't think the Gotham lead-in should have been expected to make that much of a difference for a serialized show like Sleepy Hollow, limited run or not. Also, the Gotham audience appears to be the type of audience that shows up for the show and the show alone and watches little TV other than that (read also M18-34).

You are right about the 100, but my point still stands that I am unsure of how much added value those repeats actually had.

At the end of the day, I don't disagree with the notion that the limited runs make it harder for shows to come back stronger. I just think it's not nearly to the degree that Under the Dome, The Following and Sleepy Hollow made it out to be since these shows had other bad circumstances going for them.

Spot said...

Since there isn't a ton of news 'til finals, how did you all find spottedratings.com? I'm curious to see

Spot said...

State of Affairs didn't do so bad, all things considered: pre-emptions, The Voice probably being hurt a bit because DWTS was in season finale mode, news channels much more watched than on ordinary Monday, and whatnot.
I mean, relatively speaking, considering already low premiere ratings, and direct competition - this should be Truely only a bit worse than Laura did early in the run, and is still better than Constantine results. Absolutely speaking - it's very near to be declared flop, and way bellow NBC expectations.

Spot said...

I think it was a TVBTN comment. Pre-Disqus though. I don't know who it was from, though I think it might have been omabin

Spot said...

Thank you for your clarity. :-) Many of the other ratings sites could take a lesson or two from you.

Spot said...

A couple of years back I used to do a weekly power rankings in the comments of AV Club based on number of community grades and comments on reviews, someone told me I'd probably like Spotted Ratings based on that, and they were right! Oddly I've never seen them post here, unless they use a different account.

Spot said...

It'll be interesting to see what happens to CBS tonight since Dancing with the Stars will face NCIS: New Orleans and Person of Interest. If Stars can stay even after finals come in, there could be a mini-spike for ABC. Either way, the later CBS hours are going to have more competition in general and more 25-54 demo competition specifically in DWTS.

Spot said...

I was on the internet looking for actual ratings for Friends on the internet and found Spot's Friends War of 18-49 Post and was hooked

Spot said...

State of affairs did have the whole episode on though, it just picked up where it left off.

Spot said...

Just like you, but looking for Arrested Development (awful) ratings.

I spent the next two hours looking at the other shows.

Spot said...

I will say in the case of Revenge that:

*The first 13 episodes of season 1 were great.
*The back nine to season 1 were a little wobbly.
*Season 2 was off the rails thanks to The Initiative (which only made me think of Buffy's season 4 plotline every time I heard the expression).
*Season 3 started to get back on the rails but didn't pay off until the finale.
*Season 4, so far, has been pretty good for the type of show Revenge is.

I can see the argument about this season being the best ever since the writers have stopped spinning their wheels about when Emily's secret would be exposed, finally playing the inevitable return-from-the-dead card with Dad, and introducing a legitimately crazy character that's almost meta for how wacky everyone else is on the show. But I'm reserving judgement since season 1 didn't hold up all the way through so this one may not either.

Spot said...

Obamin's comment.

Spot said...

I don't actually remember. But I tend to advertise it to people who I believe seem rational enough about ratings to enjoy it here. I love this site.

Spot said...

Eheh my pleasure

Spot said...

Genuinely can't remember, but I'm very glad I did!

Spot said...

I follow Todd VanDerWerff (formerly of the AV Club) on Twitter, and he's recommended and linked to the site several times.

Spot said...

EDIT: Now I see NBC was preempted for NFL in New Orleans and Baltimore. I missed that at first, so I assumed SofA would be adjusted down only 1 tick to 1.6 when late start (and even more late end) on East Coast is filtered out. With NFL in play, it could be tick or two more down in finals. At 1.4-1.5 it would be closer to Constantine level (ouch), and further bellow Laura. However, it also would mean it's more likely to bounce back to 1.6-1.7 next week, instead of being flat or down in 3rd episode (which would be the best case scenario if today it was at 1.6-1.7 w/o NFL pre-emption, as I wrongly assumed at first).

Spot said...

Another discussion while we wait for any sort of viable numbers out of last night, tangentially related as I noticed it while watching the Jets-Bills game (in which my fantasy season went up in smoke because my opponent had the Bills D, oh well);

I noticed CBS promoting a new Elementary, pretty hard, for this Thursday. I hadn't noticed this promotion yesterday - my Chargers had one of their two FOX games of the season - but I was absolutely shocked. And then I think I saw promotions for the comedy block being all-original, too! I could not believe it, and was like "eh, if they have the Cowboys game then that's actually a really nice lead-in even if PUT is depressed, and they've not got that much room for reruns so..."

...when I then found they have the early (Lions) Thanksgiving game this year, rather than the late afternoon Cowboys game (which is on FOX), my jaw hit the floor.

This is the most un-CBS scheduling I've ever seen. Has TNF really done this much damage to how they schedule? Because if it has, then they'd better hope the NFL doesn't pick up the second-year option...

Spot said...

This week two number is not exactly one we'll be able to judge very well, but I suspect we're going to get a week three number that is going to reward everyone who gambles on Cancel (Confident) when they get the chance. Which I'm presuming will include you.

Spot said...

Googled for some site with ratings for each episode of some show (I don't remember which show, nor which season it was).
Found only two. This one, and tvseriesfinale.

Spot said...

Comment on TVTBN. It's a nice refuge from that chaos.

Spot said...

I knew for that. I read it somewhere. You're right it is strange:
Season is 35 weeks long. Thursday lineup started 5 weeks later because of TNF, there will be 2-3 weeks hiatus for holdiays, and there's 1 or 2 more weeks of sports pre-emption again, March madness. If I'm not missing anything, that still leaves 25+ weeks for originals, and 24+ weeks with repeats on Thanksgiving.

Spot said...

I believe I was looking for some Scrubs early ratings and found the War of 18-49. How impressed I was by all the data for various shows in one place!

Spot said...

You're right – it looks like they're showing new eps of everything except TBBT, which means they're not even bolstering the line-up with the strongest lead-in possible (even though TBBT repeats well). Even with TNF, did they really need to air new programming on Thanksgiving? Seems like they should still have a little wiggle-room in the schedule, or at least one week's worth. No Olympics this year, just March Madness...

Spot said...

I except them to renew 1 or 2 renewals among this 5 dramas:
Laura / State of Affairs / Allegiance / Aquarius / Odyssey.

1 renewal = If SVU is renewed, they just need one renewal. Whether it's by merits, or it's face saving renewal.
2 renewals = if SVU is cancelled, probably. Surely, if two midseason shows would rate good (notice, it would mean both Laura and SofA are dead).

I'm not so sure as you are... but, yes, odds seems to be against SofA. It would need to hold very well from now on + all midseason dramas to fail / rate mediocre.

Spot said...

I was just predicting you'd go Cancel (Confident) because you usually do. :)

Spot said...

Yes, but because it brings 2 points, not because I'm really confident.

Full disclosure: here might be smart to "defer" just to see if NBC will go out with midseason schedule exactly during 7 days period "defer" buys to one. Because they have 3 options here:

A. The Voice 2nd cycle premieres 02/02 (Apprentice moves to Sunday from there on), SoaF episodes are aired uninterrupted (even during holidays season), Odyssey or Aquarius launches out of The Voice premiere.

B. The Voice 2nd cycle premieres 02/23, all of Apprentice airs on Monday, with The Slap at 10 PM. SoaF on hiatus, returns together with The Voice. Note: This would strongly suggest they have zero trust in Odyssey and Aquarius.

C. The Voice 2nd cycle premieres 02/23, all of Apprentice airs on Monday, but with SoaF at 10 PM. The Slap launches out of The Voice premiere - because it's "too late" for those 13-episodes drama.

Now, schedule A would strongly suggest "cancel".
While schedule B would strongly suggest "renew".
Schedule C is unlikely to happen, but it also would suggest "cancel".

Spot said...

I also don't understand why they are scheduling the comedies for this Thursday. What's the rush? They will be forced to air repeats sooner or later, why not during this low viewed night? Poor Mom.

As for the TNF, I believe they should commit to it the entire fall or let it go entirely. The problem of letting it go is that they are problem dead scared of what a network like FOX would do against TBBT et all with it. I am not sure how valid that concern is but it's certainly one of the biggest reasons for CBS to have gotten into this game to begin with. Regardless, TBBT probably has to stay on Mondays indefinitely if they keep having TNF in small or big doses. I don't think moving it back and forth on a regular basis is advisable. Maybe Survivor could take back Thursdays, I don't see what else they could use to restore the night. Maybe second tier comedies like 2 BG and Mom + Survivor + New Drama would be smart counter programming against ABC and NBC heavy drama lineups. Scorpion could take Wednesdays at 8 which is probably the best slot on broadcast for drama counter programming and they could do two hours of comedy supported by Big Bang on Monday. They would probably destroy the voice in the process but that would be a plus for them of course.

Spot said...

CBS can't decide to have all 16 Thursday games, that entirely in hands of NFL and NFL Network.
CBS can decide to have no games on Thursday. NFL couldn't care less, as they had multiple offers for TNF package this season. Particularly, NBC and Fox would be more than happy to get TNF - just look at the sad state of their current Thursday lineups.

Spot said...

No, there is also option D.

D. The Voice launches 16/02 and a new drama launches after it (Odissey or Aquarius). There are exactly 13 weeks between then and the end of the season, so it perfectly fits. As for State of Affairs, it would have to air even during holidays, but it wouldn't matter. NBC would find a way to burn it off even if it was on Saturday like they did with Crisis. I am sure they wouldn't decide on the voice premiere date and the drama to follow it just to accommodate state of affairs if it became clear it was a dead show walking.

Spot said...

I think FOX should have gone out of its way to get them and I think the same too now. It would perfectly solve their problems and Idol could just take over in January. They could then let go of Bones and do Gotham | New Drama, Reality | Comedy, New Drama | Sleepy Hollow on Monday-Wednesday respectively. It's the 4th night that they are forced to program that it's really complicated for them right now.

As for CBS, I think they probably can negotiate things. Not demand it, but negotiate it to achieve so.

Spot said...

I'd renew Bones for Fridays just because having Thursday Night Football would allow them to actually try on Fridays.

Spot said...

But NFL proclaimed goal is to increase people's awareness of NFL Network channel by moving 8 games to CBS. Surely you agree moving 16 games to CBS would effectively kill NFLN, which is quite opposite of increasing awareness. Thus I think NFL would kindly decline to even start any negotiations about it with CBS.

Spot said...

Maybe if it's still economically viable. I seriously don't know if very low 1s are affordable for a show which I assume to be very expensive. If by chance they find a renewable drama midseason, they could also try Sleepy Hollow on Fridays, it would be a natural fit there (but at 8, it shouldn't go up against Grimm)

Spot said...

Ok then you are right. I admit I am not nearly as well informed about these sports things as most of you are.

Then I think CBS is better off letting go of it unless they are making a very significant profit with it that compensates losses with their usual content later on (which I doubt, since it's probably costly)

Spot said...

This just in: the CW will premiere the 4th Season of Hart of Dixie on Mondays in December as a lead-in for Jane the Virgin in what is one of the most natural pairings on the network.

Maybe they are testing the waters for a potential pairing of the two on Fridays?

Spot said...

But I assumed Celebrity Apprentice is 16 hours. Which would be 7 weeks, because there is 2-hours premiere on Sunday (Jan 4, 9-11 PM), and from Jan 5 it's airing 8-10 PM on Mondays. Then The Voice would premiere Feb 23 (unless they plan to move Apprentice back to Sunday after Super Bowl, and premiere The Voice early).
I just assumed it, because David (or someone else) commented here it's something like that. True is, I didn't saw any official announcement. Is there one saying whether it is 14, 16 or whatever number of hours?

Spot said...

I don't think there is any official announcement regarding the apprentice number of hours, I've also googled it and looked in the usual places and couldn't find it.

But like with State of Affairs, I think it's not important. They will move The Apprentice to Sundays if they have to and they will air filler on Mondays in late January to save enough hours of it if they have to. If I am NBC, I will premiere the voice and a new drama when I want and the apprentice and state of affairs will have to adjust accordingly since they don't matter much anyway.

Spot said...

It is known from before Jane the Virgin and The 100 would have fall finale a week later than rest of The CW lineup. Logically, as those two premiered later than other shows. With this they're giving original episode lead-in to Jane, instead of The Originals repeat.

But I don't know what to think about this test. Because it's for 1 week only, press release clearly states Hart of Dixie still will air on Fridays, starting January 9.

Spot said...

If I'm NBC, I would premiere The Voice either day after Super Bowl, either at normal time (last week of February or first week of March)fter The Apprentice ends its run.
But you're right, they can always put some episodes of Apprentice to Sunday, if they want some exact date for The Voice premiere, that is neither of my above preferred options.

Spot said...

Divine intervention. It was all very surreal. The ratings god spoke to me when I died for a few seconds, giving me the option of moving toward the life giving light of scholarly and civil Spottedratings.com or completely trading my soul for the life sucking, brain cell killing darkness and pettiness of TVBTN. Oh yeah, Google was a big help, too.

Spot said...

The mighty and arrogant CBS is not having the best new season. Maybe a little ratings anxiety, heretofore nonexistent, is leading to some rash decisions.

Spot said...

There are 16 contestants this season, so with one elimination an episode, let's say there are 15 hours. Now, if we go by the Sunday premiere and the Monday airings (provided it airs Monday for the rest of its season), 14 hours will have aired by 2/9, with potentially a 2-hour finale on 2/16. Week after will be Voice with either SofA being held back to air with Voice, or Aquarius/Oddysey premiere.

Spot said...

Thanks a lot.
So it was you (and not David) that knows format of the show and can give good guesstimate of hours.


They kick contestant out already in first episode? Didn't knew it. Kinda rough.

Spot said...

I have a hard time seeing SOA getting the renewal. They could keep it on depending on ratings to get a full season. Then when the voice ends, its with holiday programming, then the apprentice. I want to think the show is going to succeed but I just don't think it will.

Spot said...

I agree on that, they won't use the voice again to bring back SOA, if it didn't work the first time why would they do it again?

Spot said...

I'm just doing an assumption out of previous years according to Wikipedia. But a lot of reality competition shows eliminate first week. Biggest Loser for instance.

Spot said...

Yes, I pretty much agree.
I'm thinking more in the line: If midseason NBC dramas would do no better than their 3 new 3 dramas (rated not good, to say it mildly), then NBC still probably would renew the least bad rated one. Like, face saving renewal. And that one might happen to be SofA. Just might, who knows. Not a big chance, but I think it's non-zero chance.

Spot said...

I'm not trying to be negative on this at all, I do hope it does well. Reviews on it aren't good(granted they have had a couple) and it's still up in the air and it only has 13 episodes. I do hope it does well though.

Spot said...

Well, Hart of Dixie and Jane the Virgin are the only shows on the CW that fit together. You can mix and match Vampire Diaries, Originals, and Reign. You can mix and match The Flash, Arrow, and The 100. Supernatural can go with basically anything. Jane and Hart only fit with eachother

Spot said...

Finals
2 Broke Girls-1.6
Scorpion-1.9
Castle-1.7
State of Affairs-1.5

Spot said...

Those adjustments were brutal.


SOA tied Laura but the later one self-started to a 1.5, 2 Broke Girls that low early in the season, and it could've been the next big thing on CBS. Scorpion already below 2.0, NCIS:NO despite underwhelming premiere, is their biggest winner among new shows.

Spot said...

I disagree. NCIS NO has a much better timeslot. The TBBT rerun adjusted down to 1.5, so Scorpion still grew 0.4 against the voice and dwts And Sleepy hollow is as much of a competition as Shield, drama wise . Scorpion is their strongest new show IMO.

Spot said...

The Voice and DWTS also adjusted down 0.1

Spot said...

Those numbers for Scorpion don't look bad, it was dragged for hour and a half, preempted in #1 market (right?) and had another weak lead-in, so dropping only one tenth vs last week isn't too bad. Of course it's not good, neither.

Spot said...

ABC almost beat NBC last night. That's crazy

Spot said...

I'm finally okay with CSI ending. Looks like George Eads is leaving. Sad day

Spot said...

ABC's november sweep performance has been crazy overall.


The former almighty CBS has won two nights and NBC is getting close to be shut out too, thankfully for them DWTS is ending, because they would only be able to win sundays.

Spot said...

Wait, TVbythenumbers is reporting that DWTS adjusted UP! That means that NBC and ABC actually tied pending unrounded numbers and half hour breakdowns. This is insane

Spot said...

To be fair, there was so many preemptions all over the country that negativley impacted each and every series airing last night. I'm not going to say they couldn't do better, but you seem to be relying on a night that had football, trials, and the president shoving themselves in the middle of programs as a basis of overall strength for each show. Next week, SofA could bounce back, Scorpion's fall finale in two weeks could go back in the 2's, etc.

Spot said...

Wait, TVbythenumbers is reporting that DWTS adjusted UP! That means that NBC and ABC actually tied pending unrounded numbers and half hour breakdowns. This is insane

Spot said...

This was very atypical Monday, it's hard to read a lot from this ratings. But next Monday... it would be no better. I just looked TV guide, and only NBC will be in originals.
CBS is in repeats - of course, it's Thanksgiving time... only they'll actually air originals on very Thanksgiving day.
Fox is Gotham repeat into Sleepy Hollow repeat.
And CW airs special "Heigl Got Run Over By A Castle".

Spot said...

It's official! There are no non-sports programs that have never gone below a 3.0! The Voice peformance was the last one!

Spot said...

CBS airing a Mike and Molly marathon is very smart. Not only is their show their best comedy (and non comedy maybe ?) repeater after TBBT but it also creates awareness that it's coming back.

Spot said...

No, Sleepy Hollow has a new episode next week. So does Castle.

Spot said...

OK, corrected for ABC now, and for Fox earleir.

Spot said...

Are you sure about SH? FOX announced it as fall finales last night I think. Am I mistaken?

Spot said...

http://www.fox.com/schedule#day-14-12-01

Sleepy Hollow
NEW

“The Akeda"
Loyalties are put to the ultimate test

Spot said...

I was checking there, just confirm, if we set the new line to 2.5, are Voice performances (2.6), TBBT (2.8), Modern Family (2.5) and Murder (2.7) the only ones who have never gone below the line?


Crazy that TBBT and MF series lows are still on season one.


Another stat, this might be the first year where the entire big 4 is going to finish below 2.0 when it comes to scripted average, we're in november and right now the results are:
ABC: 2.00
CBS: 1.99
FOX: 1.66
NBC: 1.54

Spot said...

Yeah, time to hang up those dancing shoes, Dancing With The Stars, for sure :)

Spot said...

Settled then.

Thanks

Spot said...

If we allow the removal of first season ratings, Big Bang and Walking Dead get it back. That 2 stat is kinda crazy

Spot said...

Insane indeed...and worthy of Disqus repeating twice for emphasis :)

Spot said...

ABC has been crazy successful. What does that say about the only network that doesn't air NFL games (...and that apparently knows what many women want to watch, too)?

Spot said...

Whoa, SOA went from 2.2 to 1.5, that is a big drop..

Spot said...

I'm inclined to think that people aren't returning to State of Affairs. I imagine its own state of affairs is creatively moribund.

Spot said...

Fox clearly wants to do whatever it takes to derail Brooklyn Nine Nine, just to further fuck over Kevin Reilly's legacy.

Spot said...

I think so also, time will tell. Its only going to get rougher with the voice ending, and adding holiday programming.

Spot said...

Ahah sorry about that ;)

Spot said...

The CW has also quietly been putting a hell of a performance. Last week they were up some crazy 18% year to year! I repeat 18% (in raw numbers, not in PLUS). This is the second time this season they manage something like this. They were previously up 17% week 3 (aka their premiere week). The only network to even come close to having such a good week was ABC which had a +10% week 8, when they aired a double OUAT on Sunday.

What is more, last week the CW lost to FOX by only 42% (0.71 vs. 1.23). How sad is that for FOX?

Meanwhile, CBS continues its fall from glory. I kept saying during the first 5 weeks that we had yet to see CBS' true results since TNF was really masking a lot. In fact, while during the first weeks they were down only 3% year to year, when we look at the results from week 6 onwards, they are down a much more horrific 16%. Sure this is still amounting to a league average decline of 9% right about now, but as the effect of those first 5 weeks dissipates, I expect this number to continue to decline (even if it it halted in the winter, which I expect to be their best season of the year, relatively speaking, mainly due to the hiatus of big forces elsewhere such as the voice, TGIT, The Blacklist and OUAT).

Spot said...

I agree but unless the CW wants a pairing of the two of them on Fridays I am not sure where does that leave them.

Spot said...

I think it's possible they will move Jane to Fridays in February (MOI will be finished by then since it's only 4 episodes anyway) and are somehow testing to see how compatible both shows are?

Spot said...

They need to move Jane or Reign to Friday to make room for iZombie, yes. But, like Patrick said, they already know Jane is more compatible with HoD. And they won't learn anything form one test. And that test will be in mid December = after their midseason schedule will already be announced.
In fact, I expected them to publish their midseason by now, and I suspect delay is exactly because they're not sure which one to move.

Spot said...

Yes you are right, it's indeed random and won't tell us much. Maybe it's simply about maximizing the ratings for that specific night since the HoD premiere should at least do better than a TO repeat.

As for the schedule, I too think they should have announced it by now. I still think that Mondays at 9 or Tuesdays at 9 should be where they launch iZombie, not Thursdays at 9 against Scandal and Blacklist which is no place for a new drama, but well, if iZombie is really very compatible with TVD maybe I could get behind the idea, we'll see. Speaking of which, I also don't get what is ABC waiting for to announce the rest of their midseason schedule. They are doing it piece by piece this year for some reason (The Taste, then Agent Carter+Galavant, then Forever backorder, then American Crime+Secrets and Lies, then Cristela backorder). NBC I get it, it's because of State of Affairs.

Spot said...

iZombie is much more compatible with both TVD and The Originals, than it is with The Flash or Arrow. iZombie isn't show about zombies or any kind of comic book show. They just borrowed premise from comic book, then made it female oriented crime procedural with a twist (she eats people's brains).
Midseason Tuesday 9 PM will be Supernatural or genre show The Messengers. If Supernatural remains there, then it's clear they don't value Messengers much. Which I think is true.

Spot said...

And now 48 Hours has outright tied Elementary in a given week. And not just in raw numbers, but in skew and in True (at least out to the tenth, maybe not to the hundredth). I'm now not even a big fan of putting Elementary on Sundays at 10:00 next season. Since CBS has to ride the show out just shove it on Saturdays.

It has to be part of the logic of why CBS cancelled The Millers; they saw what happened with Elementary and didn't want to deal with a similar mess. That coupled with the lack of an announcement for the sitcom being sold in a syndication deal made it easier to cut the losses now and the need to schedule a black hole for two years. If only Fox recognized the same thing with Glee...

Spot said...

At this moment (through Sunday, November 23), Friday repeats of MasterChef Junior are beating Gracepoint, and are not so far behind Red Band Society.

Spot said...

Yeah, fucking it over by giving it its strongest lead-in in a relatively compatible lineup...k.

Spot said...

The CW's improved the front half of their schedule with The Flash and The Originals posting huge y2y timeslot improvements and most other shows treading around even, plus or minus a tick (Jane the Virgin, Supernatural, Arrow, The 100). Thursday is now the biggest drag on their numbers since The Vampire Diaries & Reign are sagging. TVD comparisons may get better as the year goes on if it can stabilize, which is a big ask, but Reign's a bigger wildcard. I didn't expect Reign to compete against Jane the Virgin for a Friday move, but that has to be on the table now after Reign's 0.3 last week. It may come down to which is the easier road for iZombie: facing Scandal on lower-HUT Thursday or facing The Voice & ABC Family's shows on higher-HUT Monday.

I knew CBS was really going to be hurting this season, especially with the loss of How I Met Your Mother. Perhaps they should have ordered How I Met Your Dad due to the brand recognition even if they didn't feel it was up to their snuff; given that CBS has developed & aired The Millers and The McCarthys, maybe they shouldn't be passing judgement on the quality of sitcoms...

Spot said...

Glad to see CSI be the top drama in True for CBS. When you are starting 40 minutes late with The Good Wife (1.4) as a lead in, a 1.3 looks pretty okay

Spot said...

I keep coming back to "$3 million an episode" of syndie money. If WGN had waited a year instead of massively overpaying for a sophomore that rarely cracked 2.0, does Elementary make it to season 3?

Spot said...

It would give WGN America a splashier way to break into the first-run/original cable content field. But I have no idea how much the show costs per episode and if it could be paired down enough to make it viable. Would the cast take a pay cut? Can production move from NYC to Toronto?

Spot said...

Maybe, yes. But Pedowitz seems aware that they need some diversity on the schedule and he has been trying, first with carrie, now with jane, so it's not just words. For the record, I think Jane will be cancelled and Reign probably renewed (the 100 is a tossup), but I don't think diversity needs to work against it.

Spot said...

I am not sure it is all about counting good timeslos, as much as it is about the overall average. The CW has grown in PLUS in every day but Thursday this season and it has grown in raw numbers in every day but Wednesday and Thursday (though it's possible that Wednesdays will get there eventually). That's pretty good if you ask me, I doubt you could ask much more from it.

Spot said...

I would lean towards yes, though it would have been on the bubble for sure. CBS knew they had a big Monday problem with HIMYM leaving and Hostages/Intelligence bombing out. Plus they were clearly displeased with their comedy situation for both shows on the air (We Are Men, The Crazy Ones, Friends with Better Lives, Bad Teacher) and in development. So CBS decided to focus on Mondays with old shows (NCIS: LA) and new (Scorpion) and leave most of its schedule alone with newbies that tonally match with their surrounding pieces.

Spot said...

Like I was saying to Silvio, the CW didn't just improve half of their schedule. In fact, PLUS wise, they are up in EVERY single night other than Thursday. Fridays are also a big plus for them that goes quietly non mentioned but last friday for instance they were up 98%. And even Thursdays, it's not like the 8pm hour is a big disaster. The year to year comparisons are terrible but that's because TVD was a big beast last year in the fall, it's not like it's doing horribly for them right now. Reign yes I agree, but well, every network has bad hours, it's not the end of the world. Things should also brighten up for the hour now that TGIT is temporarily out of the crossfire. I happen to think they are making a mistake not taking advantage to air them in January, but well.

As for CBS, yes, the loss of Mother is hurting a lot, but that was always to be expected. What is more surprising to me is how much other frontiers have suddenly fallen apart. I didn't expect Tuesdays to be down 20% (particularly a -21% for 8pm and a -26% for 10pm), Stalker failing to improve on CSI, Elementary to be down 36% year to year, Fridays at 8 to be down 24% with TAR's move or the Friday dramas to take drops higher than the league average. That's a lot of things going wrong. You cannot specifically pinpoint to Mondays and say they are a big problem (which in fact it isn't that much true, especially once you remove the millers).

Spot said...

They would probably be better off simply keeping the 100 on the schedule and doing: TO/iZombie, Flash/Messengers, Arrow/100 and TVD/Supernatural.

But because this is not possible, I think they will have to put the messengers after arrow; that doesn't mean they don't value it. What else would they pair arrow with? They could put supernatural there but feels like a strange move when the show is more needed both mondays and thursdays.

I wasn't aware of the premise of iZombie, I thought it had to do with zombies. Then it really doesn't fit after flash.

Spot said...

Pedowitz never stopped to order female oriented (W18-34 targeting shows). He orders about 50% such new shows (scripts/pilots/series). The difference is Dawn ordered 100% such shows, and waited for shows targeting other demos to naturally die (and those who refused to die, she tried to kill, like when she moved Supernatural to Friday).
It looks like he's ordering more male oriented shows, but that's because it just happened they're better rated, and more often renewed during his era.

Spot said...

I would prefer it on Saturdays as well. But I really don't think CBS will go for it. It would be such a public admissions of their failure in carrying it to syndication, I dunno if they are willing to do it.

Spot said...

They aren't against putting new shows on Saturday at least on paper: Rules of Engagement's sixth season was originally scheduled on Saturdays until How to be a Gentleman bombed hard. But in the case of Elementary, it's not like it was designed to be filler and would be a stronger option than a failed drama. CBS wouldn't care if it was an admission of failure in carrying it to syndication if they are still getting that $3 million/episode. If anything, they'd just spin it to say they are such a strong network that they can program on Saturdays. < /sarcasm >

Spot said...

Yes, you have a point in there. To be honest, CBS's very innovative "plug-holes" approach that they are taking this year with mentalist and Boss has left me more open to believe they would do things like that. But still.

It would certainly work very well for all the CBS bubble shows. They could keep Fridays the same and relocate POI to Sundays after the Madam+Wife block and simply premiere new stuff Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. CSI could get a spackle renewal a la mentalist to bridge something or to replace a failed drama.

Spot said...

Spotted, the season finale episode is missing. It got a 1.7 and a 5.61 million viewers.

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