Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/31/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was a pretty scary Halloween ratings-wise in general, but nowhere more than at NBC. Grimm (1.1) took a significant drop from last week's premiere and newbie Constantine (0.9) crashed by a half-point. Next Friday will be the first truly normal Friday situation for these shows, but Constantine has put itself in a deep hole.
  • There were actually a few week-to-week risers on Halloween, but most were shows that severely underachieved vs. the World Series last week, like The Amazing Race (1.1) and Last Man Standing (1.2). The one true bright spot, even moreso than usual, was Shark Tank (2.0), tying its season high on the lowest-viewed Friday of the season to date.
  • Meanwhile, Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) and Cristela (1.0) did not bounce back from drops last week, but we'll see if they can do so when viewing increases next week. Blue Bloods (1.1) hit a season low, and Utopia (0.5) fell in its return after a week off.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.2 23% +9%+0.1n/a 3/5 -14% +9% -14% 1.8
Cristela 1.0 24% +0%+0.0+0.1 3/4 n/a +0% +0% 1.5
Shark Tank 2.0 33% +11%+0.2+0.0 1/6 +0% +14% +3% 2.3
20/20 1.4 29% -7%-0.1+0.2 3/6 -7% -3% -7% 1.6
ABC:+6%-3%
The Amazing Race 1.1 24% +10%+0.1n/a 3/6 -48% +10% -19% 1.6
Hawaii Five-0 1.1 15% +0%+0.0+0.1 5/6 -15% +5% -15% 1.5
Blue Bloods 1.1 12% -15%-0.2+0.0 6/6 -8% -15% -12% 1.5
CBS:-1%-15%
Dateline Fri 1.3 22% +18%+0.2n/a 2/6 n/a +18% +86% 1.8
Grimm 1.1 31% -21%-0.3+0.2 2/2 -27% -24% -27% 1.5
Constantine 0.9 37% -36%-0.5-0.3 2/2 n/a -36% -31% 1.3
NBC:-16%-6%
Utopia Fri 0.5 41% -29%-0.2n/a 6/7 n/a -77% -62% 1.0
Gotham (R) 0.3 32% -90% -33% 0.9
Fox:-85%-54%
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.4 47% +33% +0% 0.6
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.3 34% +0% +0% 0.5
America's Next Top Model 0.3 48% +0%+0.0+0.0 8/11 -25% -14% -25% 0.5
CW:+0%-13%
Big5:-39%-16%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

20 comments:

Spot said...

Utopia only had a week off? Feels like longer...

Hey Spot, are the True Power Rankings coming up next week since November sweeps has started?

Spot said...

Every show that is not called Shark Tank, Dateline or, to a much lower extent, Last Man Standing or 20/20 did horribly. Grimm and Constantine did terribly, and so did the entire CBS slate. Shark Tank really is king.



Meanwhile, this week had some interesting trends. ABC is eying its first week even year ot year, though that may change on Sunday if the dramas don't recover from last week's massacre, while NBC had a -21% week, a truly horrible result with little to no excuse other than SVU being a repeat. Meanwhile, the CW is looking at a +7% year to year week which is amazing for them.

Spot said...

All right Fox, time to throw in the towel and pull the plug on this disaster pit you call "Utopia"

Spot said...

ABC has now won the first two nights of November Sweeps. Of course, Sundays, Mondays and Tuesdays aren't so favorable but I have to say the network is overall outshining the competition which is pretty remarkable without NFL games

Spot said...

My guess is that Utopia's plug will be pulled around Thanksgiving where it will disappear quietly amid all the holiday distractions.

Spot said...

Were they not running the Voice 9-11 for like three weeks on Tuesday during sweeps? I think that has something to do with it.

Spot said...

Damnit Blue Bloods! After finals I thought that Blue Bloods beating or at least trying Elementary (1.2). "Elementary is barely doing better than Blue Bloods" isn't the same as "Blue Bloods is even beating Elementary!"

Spot said...

Awful numbers for both NBC and CBS.

Whats is going to replace Constantine? Odyssey? Hannibal? Aquarius?

Spot said...

PUT A18-49 drop w2w, preliminary:
8 PM: -13% ; 9 PM: -11% ; 10 PM: -7%

Then I'd say Grimm / Constantine lost only 0.1 because of Halloween, maybe a few hundredths more. While I can see Grimm bouncing back to 1.2 or 1.3 next week, from Constantine I expect 1.0, maybe 1.1 or 0.9. Which means there's only one question left: will Constantine air all 13 episodes or less?

Unlike Constantine, I cannot declare Cristela fully dead. But being already at 1.0, I don't see Cristela not even close to 50% chances of survival.

Spot said...

You know my opinion: Hannibal is renewed for summer, in midseason Odyssey at Friday 10 PM, and Aquarius at Sunday 10 PM.

Disclaimer: Provided Aquarius is higher priority to NBC than Odyssey is. Which I think is true. But I could easily be wrong - and in that case Aquarius would be on Friday, and Odyssey on Sunday,

Spot said...

Having week 2 on a viewing depressed holiday always sucks. The only network I think has done it a bunch is NBC. They brought back Whitney season 2 on November 14th, and week 2 was Thanksgiving Eve. Community season 4 came back February 7th and week 2 was Valentine's Day. It sucks because not only are they hit by the viewer depression, they are also hit by regular post premiere drop

Spot said...

Shark Tank must be the most situationally resilient show on TV right now. Astounding. 2.0 out of a 1.1 on the lowest-rated Friday of the season? My word. Suddenly I'm thinking I should have all-out predicted ABC would win the season, rather than merely saying they might!



Constantine already sub-1? When's Hannibal S3 going to be ready?

Spot said...

You've assumed that PUT affects all shows equally, but that doesn't seem like a reasonable assumption. In practice, holidays seem to affect younger-skewing shows disproportionately. Intuitively, this makes sense, as younger folks seem more likely to go out than people in their 40s.


This tends to be particularly striking prior to Thanksgiving, where the diminished PUT levels have little impact on older-skewing shows, presumably as younger folks travel to be with older relatives.

Spot said...

I simply assumed NBC dramas drop in A18-49 can be attributed to:
70% = usual episode 2 drop
30% = Halloween caused lower PUT

That gives me it would be 1.20 / 1.05 on "normal" Friday, but was 1.1 / 0.9 on this low-viewership Friday.

That sounds reasonable to me. Certainly much more reasonable than very convoluted "last night many NBC P18-39 viewers didn't watch TV because of Halloween, but PUT didn't go so much down, because all other networks P40-49 actually watched TV more this Friday than they did previous week".

Spot said...

i reiterate: ABC would be the number #2 or even the top network if they had NFL games like the rest of the networks do.


Their scripted programming is among the strongest of the networks.

Spot said...

You are right, I had forgotten about that. Still, even if Tuesdays were the worst day year to year (-34%), the others didn't fare that well either. It was -15% on Monday, -21% on Wednesday and -24% on Thursday. Fridays are actually the best one so far, practically even (-2%) but that's because they had the awful Vampire Special at 8 last year.

Spot said...

As of now, the race is extremely tight between ABC, CBS and NBC (in the metric that I use which excludes all sports programming, Saturdays, and Sundays 7pm airings). I have NBC at 1.99, CBS at 1.97 and ABC at 1.92. For the week though, and keeping in mind that Sundays haven't aired yet, I have ABC at 1.85, CBS at 1.90 and NBC at 1.67. I don't think NBC will manage to keep the leadership slot without the 4th hour of the voice, but they are going to have that hour (and even a fifth) for some sweeps so I am not sure if the effect will be felt. As for CBS I am not sure what will happen there.ABC would be beating them comfortably if it wasn't for Tuesdays in which CBS has almost a full point advantage over them, even if ABC wins them over on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays and isn't that far off in regular Mondays (post BBT I mean).

In scripted programming only, ABC does win it by an hair. It is at 2.03 right now whereas CBS is at 2.00 and NBC at 1.56 (FOX is at 1.53 here, almost tied with NBC). But I don't really like this metric because it isn't really fair to take away all of NBC's strongest hours like that when, most likely, they would be airing something in those hours that would score above average ratings for them, even if not as high as the voice. It's the same problem I have with excluding sports, but in that case I feel like the benefits outweigh the cons.

Spot said...

Seeing NBC winning in the "league average" and at FOX levels in scripted just shows how reliant they are on The Voice. ABC's got a lot more depth - there's hardly a weak hour in the entire second half of the week! - and if The Voice is headed for an Idol-esque collapse, NBC is in deep trouble barring a stunning Blacklist-led Thursday revival. (And in fairness, they seem to know it, and are throwing everything at that they possibly could to set it up - except for throwing away the comedy block and priming the slot with Blacklist repeats in January, which I think they should be doing because they're blatantly all-in on this plan anyway and those comedies are already cancelled.)

I suspect we'll see an ABC vs CBS battle for #1 the next few years (though NBC have both the SB and Olympics in 2018, so that will really have an impact on sports-inclusive numbers). I'd fancy CBS to win that simply because Scandal might be headed for the standard mid-life crisis of a serialised smash (and that word hilariously autocapitalised, very funny in context), and may be in its peak season in Plus. That said, if it can pull off a Grey's-esque managed decline, it'll still be a hit, HTGAWM might be a big hit for longer, and if the Shark Tank brand can continue to thrive with its spinoff on the schedule...

Spot said...

FOX has officially cancelled Utopia

Spot said...

Whoa. I completely forgot that show was a thing. Maybe there's a reason. ;)

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