Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/25/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Dancing with the Stars (3.0) gained a tenth, putting it up 25% year-to-year. NCIS (2.5) gained a tenth, putting it down just a tenth from last week.
  • ABC took over Tuesday primetime with the two-hour season finale of Dancing with the Stars (2.9) leading out of a recap special at 8/7c (1.9). This finale was up a whooping 21% year-to-year. What had been a pretty quiet season of DWTS for the most part really took an amazing turn for the better in the last couple weeks.
  • NBC, probably the lineup most vulnerable to ABC's strengthening, had another very soft night. The Voice (2.3) took another noticeable drop at 8/7c, tying a rating for a recap special just three weeks ago. Comedies Marry Me (1.1) and About a Boy (1.0) got particularly ugly, dropping 0.4 and 0.3 respectively, and Chicago Fire (1.6) gave back a half point after its big rating last week.
  • The other three networks were very close to even with last week; only NCIS (2.4) changed by more than a tenth (it was down 0.2), and only Person of Interest (1.7) was up (by 0.1). The Flash hit its fourth straight 1.4, while Supernatural (0.9) and New Girl (1.3) each lost a tenth.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars (R) 1.9 21% +73% -25% 2.0
Dancing with the Stars 3.0 24% +20%+0.5n/a 1/14 +25% +131% +25% 2.9
ABC:+114%+7%
NCIS 2.5 20% -4%-0.1n/a 6/9 n/a -4% -18% 2.5
NCIS: New Orleans 2.3 20% +0%+0.0-0.1 3/9 n/a +0% -4% 2.1
Person of Interest 1.7 24% +6%+0.1+0.0 3/9 -23% +3% -21% 1.7
CBS:-1%-14%
The Voice Tue 2.3 31% -15%-0.4n/a 10/11 -23% -16% +18% 2.3
Marry Me 1.1 40% -27%-0.4-0.4 6/6 n/a -27% -62% 1.2
About a Boy 1.0 42% -23%-0.3-0.4 5/6 n/a -23% -67% 1.3
Chicago Fire 1.6 34% -24%-0.5-0.3 9/9 -24% -24% -24% 1.8
NBC:-21%-29%
MasterChef Junior 1.5 47% -6%-0.1n/a 4/4 n/a -3% +11% 1.6
New Girl 1.3 60% -7%-0.1-0.1 5/9 -32% -7% -32% 1.5
The Mindy Project 1.1 60% +0%+0.0-0.1 3/9 -21% +0% -21% 1.3
Fox:-4%-10%
The Flash 1.4 51% +0%+0.0n/a 4/7 n/a -3% +27% 1.4
Supernatural 0.9 50% -10%-0.1+0.0 4/7 -18% -10% -14% 0.8
CW:-6%+7%
Big5:+11%-10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

50 comments:

Spot said...

I bet the affiliates LOVED getting a 2.9 at 10 as a lead in from Dancing (considering Forever was a 1.0 last week) during sweeps, but I have to say I think it would have been more prudent to have it air starting at 8 and give Forever a boost. They literally could have doubled its lead in week to week

Spot said...

This is second time in 3 last airings Marry Me / About a Boy block had a bad break (at 11/04 there was The Voice clip show lead-in + elections). On the other hand, this just shows what's *the best* NBC can expect from this not at all dynamic duo when they (hopefully) move it elsewhere. I would move this block to Tue 8 PM or Thu 8 PM, depending on which day they'll have additional drama in midseason. Greenblatt said they've chosen to go for "drama-heavy schedule" (rolleyes, like they had a choice).

Spot said...

Actually, at 10:30, DWTS was at a 3.1

Spot said...

ABC had a fantastic two nights and a fantastic overall performance for Novembers sweeps.
Congrats are in order, I suppose.

Spot said...

It just goes to show ABC is aware Forever is dead show walking. I mean, if Forever ratings would be higher (in Castle / SHIELD tier), I bet ABC would do exactly what you're proposing.

Spot said...

ABC officially won November Sweeps and they didn't even that many gimmicks to get them there. Just a double OUAT one week, that was it. Amazing results, truly.

They are also winning the season overall right now, having finally beaten NBC and CBS, and are even year to year right now (as is the CW by the way). I am not entirely certain that Spring can go as well for them because I think some particular areas are bound to give in a little (American Crime will be no Murder and OUAT is bound to give back some ground) but if there is enough improvement on Tuesdays to counterbalance that, maybe they can do away with the season.

Spot said...

If only ABC had football to boost its ratings...

Spot said...

ABC was the most stunt-y of the networks: the double-dose of Once Upon a Time, the Country Music Awards, and the American Music Awards were certainly worth more than NBC's ChiFi/SVU/ChiPD triple crossover. And the CMAs and AMAs removed lower-rated original entertainment hours from the averages.


But their results are still impressive nonetheless.

Spot said...

I have removed CMAs and AMAs from the averages I was talking above. Sure you can make a case that's removing hours of low rated programming but you could make the same case (in a much bigger proportion) about TNF and overuns on CBS and about SNF on NBC. Besides, while the AMAs did indeed preempt two hours of below average programming (Revenge and Resurrection), the CMAs only removed one hour below average (Nashville). Hardly that material IMO.

Spot said...

By winning the season, do you mean in scripted or overall? In scripted I totally see. Funny how just last year we called Paul Lee an inept, clueless son of a gun. But overall, I'd expect SNF to shield the ugliness of most of NBC.

Spot said...

Yeah, I agree with you. I thought they would have given it the slot if they still saw something in the show.

Spot said...

All my numbers exclude sports, award shows, Saturday airings and Sunday 7pm airings. So it's not just scripted, it's overall, just excluding these events that inflate the average without being representative of a network's strength. But reality like the voice is absolutely included.

Spot said...

Props have to go to NCIS: NoLa and Person of Interest for holding/growing w2w against their toughest demo competition in Dancing with the Stars. I figured CBS would be more susceptible than NBC to a drop but that clearly wasn't the case. The Voice at least gets a easier road for the end its season on Mondays; NBC really needs this week to be a Ferguson/Thanksgiving-related blip.

And DWTS really broke well for the tail end of its season, helping to narrow the y2y deficit. Do you think the league average may drop enough to get Fall 2014's Plus score up to Spring 2014's score?

Spot said...

The CW is stalling with releasing their midseason schedule. It's making me anxious, so I created my mock schedule, just to calm myself down.

They need to make at least 3 moves, and knowing Pedowitz, they'll make exactly 3 changes, max 4. My mock schedule has only 3 moves, then:
iZombie to Mon 9 PM in late January,
Jane to Fri 9 PM in early February
The Messengers to Wed 9 PM in late February.

01/05/2015 Mon: Originals / Jane the Virgin
01/06/2015 Tue: The Flash / Supernatural
01/07/2015 Wed: Arrow / The 100
01/09/2015 Fri: Masters of Illusion / WL (repeat) / Hart of Dixie
01/15/2015 Thu: The Vampire Diaries / Reign
01/26/2015 Mon: 9 PM iZombie series premiere
02/06/2015 Fri: 9 PM Jane the Virgin
02/18/2015 Wed: 2-hours season finale The 100
02/25/2015 Wed: 9 PM The Messengers series premiere
03/06/2015 Fri: series finale Hart of Dixie
03/13/2015 Fri: 8 PM season premiere Beuaty and the Beast
05/12/2015 Wed: 2-hours season finale The Messengers

There's really not many options for them. There are only two things The CW could do different than me:
1. They could move Reign to Fri 9 PM in early February instead of Jane, and launch iZombie at Thu 9 PM (yes, against Scandal / Blacklist, but against Bachelor / Voice isn't much better, if at all).
2. They could launch The Messengers behind The Flash in late February (which would bump Supernatural to Wednesday 9 PM, obviously).

Spot said...

2 weeks ago I thought Person of Interest could be cancelled outright with a 1.3. These last two week's upticks makes me think it may actually not be cancelled, but keeps its slot. That's how crowded the CBS veteran bubble is. 4 tenths makes the difference!

Spot said...

And CBS' only "stunt" backfired like crazy with the Hollywood Film Awards

Spot said...

Too bad my CW schedule involves way too many changes, but my moves would be:
Reign to fridays at 9 pm
Supernatural to thursdays at 9 pm (no new show here, that would be suicide)
The Messengers after The Flash
iZombie after Arrow (I'm going to get some backlash here pairing male and female skeeing show, but I would rather give CW's best lead-ins to rookie, although I believe they don't trust them)

Spot said...

We're all suspicious to jumping the gun. When last month New Girl dropped to ugly 1.2 W18-34 against Marry Me, I was like: "OMG, if it's already so low, it will be bellow 1.0 in spring. It's likely cancelled!" And now that NG bounced back to usual 1.5-1.6, I'm not only sure it will be renewed for 5th season, I'm already thinking about if 6th season in 2016-17 will be short, final season, or full season.

Spot said...

I agree, but it is also not counted on my averages. I have removed all award shows (good or bad ones). Like ABC though, they also gain a bit from these since their friday lineup is below average and didn't air.

Spot said...

But if CBS cancels two weekday dramas (let's say H-50 and CSI), who's going to replace them?

Elementary is an obvious choice but I believe NCIS:LA is ahead of POI, it won't move twice (very un-CBS-ish) unless they are completely giving up on it for New Orleans

Spot said...

Note that the CW is bringing back their show later this year. Here are their winter return dates:
- 9 January - Hart of Dixie
-19 January - The Originals & Jane the Virgin
- 20 January - The Flash & Supernatural
- 21 January - Arrow & The 100
- 22 January The Vampire Diaries & Reign

The most obvious consequence of this is that The 100 cannot finish as early as you were planning and that Jane won't be able to premiere as early as you are saying.

I am not sure of which mock schedule I should go for now that you've explained me that iZombie is not compatible with the Flash. I still feel like Supernatural should go to Mondays to help The Originals and that the flash should launch something else but there's just no proper fits left for these to happen.Because I still feel like The Flash should be put to use, I would probably try to schedule The Messengers after it, but I am confused now. Too bad the 100 couldn't be kept on the schedule for the whole year.

And by the way, I would be surprised if BATB is brought back earlier than very late spring/summer. On Fridays, I expect to be MOI/HOD for January, then probably Jane/HOD or Whose Line Season 3/Hod for February and then Whose Line Season 3/Jane.

Spot said...

Did you included State of Affairs losing 1 more tenth? Showbuzzdaily is saying Nielsen adjusted yesterday's State of Affairs to 1.4 after recalculation. That should make NBC November Sweeps average down by 0.002 or so.

Spot said...

I thought the exact same thing!! When I saw the 1.7 today I thought "damn two weeks ago I was legitimately afraid CBS would outright cancel it but now it may even keep its slot".

Spot said...

Spot, Nielsen just revised the final rating for State of Affairs down an additional one tenth to 1.4, after reviewing the screwy Monday night pre-emptions.

Spot said...

Are you sure they're bringing back their shows later this year?

In my schedule I specifically wanted Monday lineup to start early, so iZombie premiere would avoid Bachelor / Voice combo. If it already cannot avoid The Bachelor anyway. Then I just set other weekdays returning dates accordingly.

Spot said...

I do. Spot says its league average estimate (which is different than mine due to the different stuff we include) is down 10%. That makes leagues average projection 1.70.

DWTS has averaged a 2,11, making PLUS number 124, perfectly tied with Spring edition. It's even 125 if you remove the two early tuesday results show that didn't happen last season and that hurt the average. And of course it could adjust up today. By the way, there is no year to year deficit, it actually tied its fall numbers from last year. Yet another big win for ABC!

Spot said...

Wow even more down. We really shouldn't read much into Monday's numbers this week but that show would have to pull a miracle to come back from dead. Laura is probably happy since she significantly improved her renewal chances (for save facing, but still)

Spot said...

Various sources have reported these dates (https://www.google.com/search?q=CW+2015+RETURN+DATES&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb), so I assume they are true.


I think it's a big mistake to not take advantage of TGIT hiatus to try to gain momentum for the Thursday pairing. They should air as many episodes as possible in January to avoid later crashes and to maximize momentum for February sweeps. They can save up episodes on March and April, especially since Spring always hurts the CW worse anyway.

Spot said...

The fact that George Eads is leaving CSI makes me think CBS wants to renew it for a final season, but need to cut costs. Maybe I'm reading way too much into it.
Anyways, I see The Good Wife, CSI, NCIS: LA, Person of Interest, Hawaii 5-0, Blue Bloods, and Elementary are in contention. I think at least Sunday/Friday shows are getting cancelled with 2 midweeks heading out the the syndication factories. I'm think Blue Bloods and Good Wife are safe with CSI and 5-0 in danger, but I could see it all coming down to behind the scenes syndication deals and contract negotiations. Even stuff like tax credits to film in Hawaii. It's going to be hard to see a ratings reason to keep/cancel the shows.

Spot said...

Mondays deserve something better than Jane though. The Originals could use some help and I believe that by season's end Jane's numbers will be no better than BATB's, so I would exile the show to Fridays.


I understand the izombie after arrow thing but it's really out of desperation since nothing else pairs well lol. Supernatural probably wouldn't be a terrible pair with iZombie but then you leave the flash or arrow without a pair since TO is not compatible.

Spot said...

I was not aware. Even more so then. Jeez. I am really confident that SOFA will air with the apprentice now. Even if last night was extraordinary circumstances, so much damage can hardly be reverted to decent levels.

Spot said...

NBC really needs Peter Pan to soar next Thursday to overshadow the recent ugly ratings. ABC's competing Taste should barely register a pulse but CBS' Cowboys/Bears game might do some damage.

Spot said...

I am not sure they will want to cancel H50. There is a lot of unknowns around CBS schedule to guess and apparently a lot of incomprehensible decisions such as keeping TAR on the schedule when it is clearly flopping, but they simply replace CSI with Elementary, cancel Stalker, end Two and a Half Men and cancel McCarthys without renewing any midseason stuff and they can launch 3 hours of new programming. That's down from the 4.5 they did this fall but in line with the 3 from the year before or the 3.5 the year before that one.

It is also possible that Madam gets cancelled (though I don't think so) or that they wise up and banish TAR to summer, both of which would give them an additional hour to launch new programming.

Spot said...

If there's a race between Hawaii Five-0 and Blue Bloods for a renewal, I throw my lot in with Five-0. I could see them cancelling Blue Bloods and putting Elementary in there since those two shows would be interchangeable from a skew perspective.

If/When CSI is canceled, the most obvious choice is Person of Interest. Force the non-CBS-owned show to take the most negative side of the sports overruns and milk more episodes out of a franchise the sister studio owns. But I also think that NCIS: LA could be moved anyway. Leverage Scorpion's strength if it's still there by May for a new drama and shift LA to Thursdays at 10:00.

Spot said...

Yes, I get it now. Thanks. It looked odd to me, because at first I thought it's 8 weeks hiatus - practically split seasons. I calculated something wrong, It's actually 6 weeks hiatus, just one week more than they usually had. And down the drain goes my schedule.

So they're going for a repeat less later in the season. But I agree here with you - earlier start would actually be a better idea.

Spot said...

Let's put it this was: George Eads leaving CSI certianly doesn't hurt CSI renewal chances, and maybe it helps it.

Spot said...

I cannot see them cancelling Blue Bloods, even less The Good Wife.

Elementary is Sunday 10 PM next year, that's 100% sure. That's only timeslot where it doesn't hurt network. Even if they would renew CSI, it can share slot with The Good Wife (both renewed for shortened final season in that scenario), and Elementary would still be at 10 PM.
If they cancel H50, Person of Interest goes there. NCIS: LA is both stronger, and CBS owned.
If Madam Secretary collapses in spring, I can see giving them that hour back to reality show.

Spot said...

Mondays ratings will show a better picture..Ouch.. They can't blame pre-emptions on that big of a dip. "Its not like it wasn't on at all. It would have had a better cushion had it premiered higher. Would the re-airing on saturday night help at all? even last weeks saturday episode didn't do well. They got a bigger whole to get out of.

Spot said...

I read the first holiday special after the voice ends is a 2 hr special of saturday night live holiday skits.

Spot said...

Maybe you should add the HFA just to punish them for such a bad scheduling decision

Spot said...

I did forget to mention there is no reairing of SOA on saturday night, a SNL special is on at 9pm.

Spot said...

In other news, Red Band Society is pulled after Dec. 3, leaving the last 3 episodes unaired...surprise?

Spot said...

Deadline article strongly suggests the reason they're not burning off remaining 4 episodes in December is last 3 episodes not being produced yet:
"...which will wrap production in mid-December".

It ain't clear if they mean end of shooting, or end of post-production. Anyway, then they're well behind production scheduled, kinda unprofessional. Deadline also says:
"In addition to the low ratings, the drama has had some production issues."

Spot said...

Eh. I feel like Mondays could be so much worse given the competitiveness of the night. I'd probably just leave it intact. The only thing I could see moving there would be Supernatural, which I suppose would help The Originals if you put SPN on at 8 and TO at 9. Although I'd consider moving SPN to 9 p.m. Thursdays because I feel like it wouldn't take as much of a hit against ABC. Plus, I think JtV isn't really compatible with anything and its not doing any harm on Mondays at 9. I think I'd do:

Mondays: TO/JtV
Tuesdays: Flash/IZombie (only bc I feel like it may be female skewing but will have a similar sensibility to Flash for some reason.)
Wednesdays: Arrow/The 100 (The Messengers) (to be honest, I think Arrow may see some ugly numbers come spring, so not sure how much help it will be to The Messengers, but we'll see)
Thursdays: TVD/Supernatural
Fridays: some combo of HOD/B&TB/WL/Masters

Spot said...

That's really strange I agree. But it explains why they are pulling the show just now almost in holiday season after putting up with it for the entire fall.

Spot said...

I agree but I think H50 is slowly been decreasing its cancellation chances with better ratings. I just find incomprehensible that CBS would consider cancelling H50 when TAR pulls lower numbers and has no syndication deal to offset it. And especially when there is an obvious piece of scheduling to be made in the summer with it that would still allow them to keep it alive. TAR should be the show replaced with POI, not H50 IMO.

I think CSI, if renewed, will do what the mentalist is doing this season and just plug holes in the winter schedule, filling in for survivor hiatus and others timeslots like that. Which honestly isn't a horrible idea in theory, depends on how the mentalist does in that role this year.

Sundays at 10 is not even up for question anymore, it must be Elementary (unless they pull something crazy like scheduling it for Saturdays)

Spot said...

@Spot,

The following shows will be premiering during the next two weeks. Will we get a best case/ worst case post?
- Mike and Molly
- The Mentalist
- Undercover Boss
- The Taste
- Hart of Dixie
- The Sing-Off (though this one it's just one night this year, so not sure it qualifies)

Spot said...

I don't think Mondays 9pm are any harder than Thursdays 9pm to launch a new drama. Scandal (and soon the blacklist) are formidable competition on par with The Voice and DWTS, and TVD and TO are same-sized lead-ins, give or take a tenth.
I would rather them keep Reign in the slot and move the Virgin to Fridays with Supenratural on Mondays. The problem is that I've been explained that iZombie won't really fit well with the flash so it would be a strange pairing. They really should have kept the 100 on for the entire season. Then they could have done TO/Supernatural, Flash/Messengers, Arrow/100, TVD/IZombie and HOD/Virgin | Whose Line/ Reign

Spot said...

Well I get what you are saying but I don't want to have to make judgments with these things, I want them as objective as possible. So the criterion I use is that awards shows (and related shows such as countdowns and such) are excluded, regardless of how great or poorly rated they are.

Spot said...

I think we should get a Mentalist question!

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