Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/21/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) got another tenth in finals, putting it at an outright season high.
  • After some strange things happened last week vs. the CBS awards show, most things got back to about two-weeks-ago levels this week. The closest thing to a surprise was on NBC, where Constantine (1.1) had a particularly big rebound to above all of its results from weeks two through four. Hard to know what to make of that for now, but the truth is probably somewhere between last week's 0.8 and this week's 1.1. Grimm (1.3) also had a minor rebound.
  • On ABC, Last Man Standing (1.3) and Cristela (1.0) declined back to usual levels and Shark Tank (2.0) and 20/20 (1.6) bounced back significantly.
  • And CBS was back in the entertainment series game after a week off, flat vs. two weeks ago except for a minor Hawaii Five-0 (1.3) uptick.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.3 23% -13%-0.2n/a 2/8 +8% -13% +8% 1.5
Cristela 1.0 24% -9%-0.1-0.2 4/7 n/a -9% +11% 1.3
Shark Tank 2.0 32% +11%+0.2-0.1 1/9 +11% +14% +14% 2.2
20/20 1.6 29% +33%+0.4+0.2 2/9 +0% +39% -3% 1.7
ABC:+13%+7%
The Amazing Race 1.2 26% +0%+0.0n/a 2/8 -25% +140% -17% 1.4
Hawaii Five-0 1.4 18% +17%+0.2+0.0 1/8 -7% +180% -10% 1.6
Blue Bloods 1.3 14% +0%+0.0+0.2 1/8 -13% +225% -13% 1.6
CBS:+179%-13%
Dateline Fri 1.5 25% +0%+0.0n/a 1/9 +36% +0% +36% 1.7
Grimm 1.3 30% +8%+0.1+0.0 2/5 n/a +13% +13% 1.5
Constantine 1.1 39% +38%+0.3+0.1 2/5 n/a +29% +16% 1.4
NBC:+11%+22%
MasterChef Junior (R) 0.8 43% +14% -47% 1.0
Gotham (R) 0.4 41% -27% -50% 0.7
Fox:-4%-48%
Whose Line Is It Anyway? 0.6 45% +20%+0.1n/a 1/5 n/a +20% +100% 0.7
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.6 49% +50% +100% 0.6
America's Next Top Model 0.4 46% +0%+0.0+0.2 1/14 n/a +0% +60% 0.5
CW:+18%+82%
Big5:+28%-4%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

40 comments:

Spot said...

http://tvline.com/2014/11/22/the-x-factor-season-4-fox-simon-cowell/

Lol at fox!

Spot said...

...I quit.

Spot said...

Oh dear

Spot said...

RIP FOX 1987-2014

Spot said...

2013 is probably more likely, FOX has been dead this entire year IMO

Spot said...

Are they sure FOX didn't mean the X "Files" and not Factor lol.

But yeah, if FOX does this, then they are really dead. The X Factor's return would be the final nail in the coffin for Idol.

Spot said...

The second time I've been duped by a tabloid and/or satirist this week...curse my naivete!

Spot said...

Just in: Members Only canceled by ABC, accoring to the Hollywood Reporter

Spot said...

Hah. Me and Silvio were just talking about this show yesterday. So with that, we have...4 (maybe 3 if FOTB will be on Thursday for some reason) remaining shows not scheduled. But unlike a certain bird, this is way easier to schedule.

Spot said...

Yeah, like Eric said, day or two ago I noticed Members Only disappeared from list of ABC shows on their site. Accidentally, I rarely went to their site, but that day I wanted to see if there's anything about FotB airing on Thursday.

I think now there's only two not scheduled: The Whispers and The Astronaut Wives Club. I'd put Whispers on Tuesday 8 PM or 10 PM, and Wives to summer/late spring. But I have no idea what ABC will do.

Spot said...

And also the Shark Tank spin-off. I'd say Tuesday 8PM, but that all depends on Cristela's episode order, mainly due to the Shark Tank repeats and ST being more male-skewing than other shows.

Spot said...

Yes, there is. I remembered just after I posted commented, and then I edited comment few minutes later.

Spot said...

Constantine cancelled by NBC (I mean, not more episodes ordered, but it's the same)

Spot said...

I would still prefer to run Forever and Nashville straight through and premiere The Whispers and Wives Club Tuesdays and Wednesdays at 10, respectively, with Beyond the Tank serving as lead-in for Shield's second half. Fresh Off the Boat is not important, can either be paired with the taste as rumored or replace Cristela or be burned off in the summer.

Spot said...

I am really curious to see what NBC will do with its schedule, especially the 8pm Thursday and the 9pm Tuesday. They went from having tones of comedy backups (back when we thought Kimmy and Mission Control were promising) to having two comedies that have no buzz and seem afterthoughts.

Spot said...

Maybe you're right, I have no idea, I just posted it when I read it. I think it would be crazy.

Spot said...

Well, they did say they may pick it up again depending on its midseason...y'know, like Pan Am, Almost Human, and [insert favorite one-season wonder here]

Spot said...

Yeah it's every year the same story. However, I do think we are coming very close to this "rule" finally being broken". Almost Human was close last year and sooner or later it will happen I think. I even think Dads had a shot at the end of being brought back to air in the slot Mulaney did.

Spot said...

That's logical. This spike to 1.1? Season average went up from 1.03 to 1.04. For 1 hundredth, there's really no reason to get excited. Even if Constantine would keep getting 1.1s, average after 13 episodes would be at mere 1.08. NBC knows even Friday show is deader than disco with such ratings.
I know delusional fans will compare ratings with Dracula / Hannibal (dirty cheap co-productions) or H50 / Elementary (pile of syndication money for studio), but Constantine is in race against Laura and State of Affairs. And it's clearly losing it, even if we give it some leeway for Friday airing (like 2 tenths). The biggest winner here is Chicago PD. It's stronger than all 3 rookies, and I dare to say CPD is completely safe.

Spot said...

I agree that CPD is totally safe but I would have said the same even if the rookies were doing better.

I am extremely confused as to what NBC will do with its midseason schedule. Every day other than Wednesday is a big mess. I wish they would just come out and do one of those horrible press releases and announce it, don't you?

My current guesses are the following:

Monday:
- State of Affairs declines to an even more modest level tonight and NBC decides to burn off the show after the apprentice during the voice hiatus
- The Voice comes back February 16th and Odyssey premieres after it (or Aquarius, I don't know which they like better). That would allow The Voice to run for its standard 13 weeks within the regular season and for odyssey to air 13 episodes as well.

Tuesday:
- Game Night takes over the 8pm hour during the voice hiatus
- The comedies continue to air during the voice hiatus.
- When the voice returns, I legitimately have no clue what happens. Mr. Robinson and One Big Happy seem incompatible with one another, have no buzz and don't have a high enough episode order (though voice double ups would solve it). So maybe they put another drama here? But they are running out of dramas to do so...
- Chicago Fire of course remains at 10

Thursday:
- What in the world will air as lead-in for the blacklist. This is getting harder and harder to guess. I refuse to believe NBC will force it to pull a GA and self start out of a parks led comedy hour. There have been no news about TBL's second cycle yet and that show is pulling very low 1s anyway. Heroes Reborn hasn't cast yet. Maybe they could air Aquarius or Odyssey here (whichever doesn't get the post voice slot) but I don't exactly like that plan.. I am out of ideas.

Friday:
- I don't think they have the inventory to afford to put another drama here. So I think it will have to be Hannibal. I know showrunner said only in April it would be ready but since we are still in November, I don't understand how they couldn't produce the episodes in 3 months and have them ready by March. I think they will find a way to have it on the schedule by then. If not, then I expect Grimm to be put on hiatus for a month or so and for them to revert to the Repeats | Dateline | Dateline combo we had for the first weeks of the season. Another possibility is Parks being burned off here.

Sunday:
- This day is the worst.
- 04/01: Globes
- 11/01: it's the NFC on CBS so my guess is that NBC airs a movie as filler like they did last year
- 18/01: it's unknown, but I would guess filler. Last year they aired the best of late night with Jimmy Fallon on the first sunday of january (globes were a week later) so maybe they use it here now.
- 25/01: pro bowl
- 01/02: super bowl
- 08/02: no idea but probably has to be filler again since the next week is the oscars and it would be a bad idea to force week two of anything to go up against the oscars
- 15/02: should be filler since the oscars are on at ABC
- 22/02- 29/03: ????? for the whole three hours (6 weeks)
- 05/04 - 17/05: AD will be on this night, presumably for two hours a night as it is widely speculated, which would at last them 6 weeks. They would need something for 17/05 but they can air a special like they did last year (the women of SNL, though that one was low rated, so maybe a different one this time). 7pm I assume is Dateline as usual but there is still an hour missing. Since this period covers 7 weeks, it's probably The Slap here. Maybe that one airs its finale on 17/05 after said special.
So April and May are relatively clear to me as is January and February. But the end of February and the entire month of March is a big unknown to me. 3 hours is a big vacuum to have on the schedule like that and there is only so much Dateline they can air.

Spot said...

Monday: I think The Voice returns 2/23, given Apprentice order is probably around 15 hours. I think their Plan A was Apprentice/The Slap during Jan /Feb, SofA on hiatus, returns with Voice 2nd cycle. Plan B, if SoFa ratings are not good (which is now likely), burn all SoFa episodes behind Apprentice (still can be good enough for face saving renewal), and try another drama behind 2nd cycle of The Voice,

Spot said...

Tuesday: I think they'll have 2 hours of comedies for first 7 weeks of 2015. Like, Parks doubled up on 8 PM, and Mr. Robinson / One Big Happy at 9 PM.
The Voice to return on 2/24, but on 9 PM, why waste it on poor rated comedies? So, fro 2/24/2015:
Marry Me / About A Boy / The Voice / Chicago Fire.

Spot said...

Thursday: Odyssey / Blacklist / Allegiance.
Greenblatt said "drama-heavy schedule". It means drama either at Tuesday 9 PM, either at Thursday 8 PM.
I know this means 3 dramas airing against TGIT... But, does anybody really expect NBC schedule to make any sense?

Spot said...

Friday: I agree there will be no new drama at Friday, they need remaining few elsewhere. Hannibal, yes, of course. If episodes will be produced, then maybe even earlier than they original plan of April/May.
They can put up with Constantine at 0.8 to 1.0 level. If it falls to 0.6-0,7, then one more hour of Dateline and/or repeats.
I cannot see Grimm going on any kind of hiatus given late premiere date.

Spot said...

Sunday seems pretty simple to me. Unless they would need The Slap and/or Aquarius elsewhere:
02/08 to 03/29 (8 weeks) - Dateline / HGN / Slap / Aquarius
From April 5th - Dateline / 2- hours A.D. / Aquarius

Spot said...

By itself, I don't dislike the idea, but I have problems with your schedule because they create holes elsewhere:
1. What would air Tuesdays at 8 during the voice hiatus? - I would need Game Night for there, which you use here
2. What would air Thursdays at 8 (assuming it's not P&R) - I also have no clue I have to say
3. What would air Tuesdays at 9 in the spring (assuming the comedies left are not good enough to get the slot and a drama goes there) - I would need a drama like Aquarius which you use here

Spot said...

Grimm will have aired 8 episodes at the end of the fall. The new year has 19 weeks to fill. That's 27 weeks. Since Grimm only has 22 episodes, you can have an hiatus of 5 weeks. During those 5 weeks, they can double pump P&R at 8 and do double Dateline 9-11.

I still think this won't be needed as they will probably be able to bring Hannibal back early enough to avoid a gap but if they don't, I think this is their best plan.

Spot said...

I think that's possible. But I think Odyssey will follow The Voice on Mondays, I don't see NBC sticking with Affairs the whole year.

Spot said...

That's not a bad plan, you would maximize the ratings for 9pm and 10pm hour. But major yikes yikes at the 8pm ratings in that situation. I don't think that's likely, especially because Marry Me didn't even get a full season order to match About a Boy.

(Sorry, I realize I am saying no to pretty much everything without having a proper solution, but they really dug themselves a hole with this schedule, there are gaps everywhere)

Spot said...

I agree entirely with the plan A/ plan B thing.

Spot said...

Then, let's say it this way:
Sun 8 PM (until A. D. premiere), and (Tue 8 PM) during The Voice hiatus is:
HGN and Parks burn-off. That we agree. Only, I would put P&R on Tuesday and reality show on Sunday, because that's natural. You would do it other way around, and maybe you're right. But doesn't make much difference, really.

Spot said...

Hm you're right. That much we can agree on. Then all it's missing is something for 9-11 on Sundays until AD premieres.


Ideally, the best solution would be for the apprentice to last until then and simply reallocate to Sundays once The Voice re-starts. Then you would have Game Night | The Apprentice | The Apprentice as filler on Sundays until the premiere of AD, perfect filler night. On Tuesdays, comedies burn-offs (poor Chicago Fire thrown into that horrible night, but at least the show is rock steady)

Spot said...

Yes, they're 1 drama short. Yes, it would be excellent if Heroes: Reborn could be pushed few months earlier to fix that hole.
They have Odyssey / Aquarius / The Slap, and they need 4 slots:
Sunday 10 PM
Tuesday 9 PM or Thursday 8 PM - for additional hour of drama they plan with 1 comedy hour less.
Monday 10 PM - because SoaF won't be able to fill slot entirely.
probably Sunday 9 PM - but 8- weeks only, until A.D: premiere.

they not need Friday 10 PM drama - they can patch it without drama until Hannibal is ready,

Spot said...

Yes, I agree. They need for Mondays at 10, Thursdays at 9, Thursdays at 8 and Sundays at 10.

Sundays at 9pm until AD I doubt it will be a drama, I don't see what could go there or what could surround it. Then again, other than a very long season of the apprentice, I don't know how to fill those slots.

One possible solution would be to extend State of Affairs order but give it a lower priority slot. Not sure how I feel about that but probably shouldn't be off the table entirely.

Spot said...

Yes, that could be solution.
1. The Voice returns early February 2nd, Too short hiatus, but compensated with Superbowl promotion.
2. Apprentice moves to Sunday 8-10 PM, airs repeats against big events, and originals on "normal" Sundays", so they stretch it until late March.
3. For Sunday 10 PM they have Aquarius.
4. Monday 10 PM is SofA 13 to 15 episodes, followed by Heroes: Reborn in April. If Heroes are not ready by then, maybe The Slap? I mean, if The Slap is indeed limited mini-series, why waste The Voice on something that can't be renewed?

Spot said...

Assuming Heroes Reborn is on the table, I would instead do something like this:

Mondays :
Winter: Apprentice + State of Affairs
Spring (16/02 onwards): The Voice + Odyssey (13 weeks, so it perfectly fits)

Tuesdays:
Winter: Parks and Recreation double pump + Marry Me + About a Boy + Chicago Fire
Spring: The Voice + Aquarius + Chicago Fire

Thursdays:
Heroes Reborn | The Blacklist | Allegiance

Fridays
Winter: Dateline | Grimm | Constantine (should have enough episode to last for a while due to late premiere)
For a 3 or 4 weeks: Repeats | Dateline | Dateline
Spring: Dateline | Grimm | Hannibal

Sundays:
The week after the Oscars, which is the week the voice premieres (it perfectly fits), the apprentice moves to the night, so it would be:
Winter (22/02-29/03): Game Night | Game Night | The Apprentice (or some other order, doesn't matter)
Spring (05/04 onwards): AD + AD + The Slap

Did we finally manage to make it work? Of course the problem is that this is highly contingent on 1) Heroes Reborn being able to air and 2) The Apprentice being able to air for that long

Spot said...

But there is no theory for Heroes: Reborn to be ready in February. If it is planned for June, they surely can hurry up it to be ready in May, and maybe in April. But not so much that it would be ready for February. So, no, your schedule doesn't work, sorry.

Also, I like Odyssey on Monday, because it's "not-limited". But they can't fit Odyssey 13 episodes on Monday, if SoaF is 13+ episodes. Though, not by much, and probably they can squeeze it in with some creative scheduling.

Overall feeling is lot of thins are depending on SoaF rating, kinda domino effect, and that being the reason why NBC announced only parts of its midseason schedule.

Spot said...

I know Hannibal fans would prefer it air straight through, but I can't see a good reason to not bring back Hannibal in February with like a 3 week break at some point. They have dozens of Datelines at any given time to expand to 2 hours and they haven't aired their annual Ann Curry news special this year. I'm sure Hannibal can come before April

Spot said...

Maybe they can throw Sundays at 10 to the wolves then and put the slap thursdays at 8 and call it a day.

And yes, I realized that there were was no room for Odyssey on Mondays with State being 13 (or more?) episodes but they can be burned off somewhere. Sundays at 10 for instance. Or double pumped at 9 and 10pm in January (which would help to save enough hours of the apprentice to air on sundays later on).

Spot said...

I can see why NBC would be reluctant to announce at outright cancellation on its highest number, but, yes, it's almost certainly dead unless it keeps ticking upwards.

I know it's incredibly unlikely to happen but the show would be a really nice fit for The CW.

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