Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/2/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was a bounce-back Sunday for ABC's drama trio of Once Upon a Time (2.5), Resurrection (1.4) and Revenge (1.2). That may in part be thanks to the 7:00 hour, which surged with the re-installation of America's Funniest Home Videos (1.2) after last week's much weaker special.
  • CBS had what looks like one of its bigger NFL overruns from a Tom Brady/Peyton Manning showdown. The lineup started very close to 8:00 Eastern and appears to have significantly boosted 60 Minutes (3.3) even over recent overrun results. And Madam Secretary (1.8) likely posted its biggest number since the premiere.
  • For the first time in a month, Fox aired its regular lineup without the NFL overrun and saw Bob's Burgers (1.5), The Simpsons (2.0) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.6) roughly match their deliveries from that night. Then came yet another Family Guy repeat (1.2) for some reason. And finally airing in a bad situation, Mulaney (0.7) plummeted well below its premiere rating from a month ago. Maybe this will be enough to get it pulled.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.2 25% +9%+0.1n/a 1/3 -14% +85% -14% 1.5
Once Upon a Time 2.6 44% +8%+0.2+0.6 5/6 +13% +11% +11% 2.6
Resurrection 1.4 36% +17%+0.2+0.2 4/6 n/a +17% -18% 1.3
Revenge 1.2 33% +9%+0.1+0.2 4/6 -29% +9% +20% 1.4
ABC:+21%-1%
NFL Overrun 9.4 41% +42%+2.8n/a 3/9 +22% +31% +9% 8.2
60 Minutes 3.4 24% +48%+1.1+2.8 2/7 +6% +45% +10% 1.8
Madam Secretary 1.8 17% +20%+0.3+1.1 2/7 n/a +20% -16% 1.5
The Good Wife 1.4 17% -7%-0.1+0.3 3/7 -13% -7% -13% 1.5
CBS:+28%+3%
Football Night in America p2 1.1 41% +38%+0.3n/a 7/9 -8% +38% -8% 1.5
Football Night in America p3 3.6 45% +6%+0.2+0.3 8/9 +6% +3% +6% 3.6
Sunday Night Football 6.7 46% -6%-0.4+0.2 9/10 +6% -6% +5% 6.0
NBC:-16%-8%
The Simpsons (R) 1.0 54% +400% +25% 1.3
Bob's Burgers 1.5 66% +0%+0.0+0.4 1/2 -17% +275% +7% 1.5
The Simpsons 2.0 60% -44%-1.6-3.6 4/5 -17% -33% -20% 1.9
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.7 63% -32%-0.8-1.6 4/5 n/a -47% -6% 1.5
Family Guy (R) 1.2 61% -63% -52% 1.1
Mulaney 0.7 55% -30%-0.3-1.3 4/4 n/a -79% -63% 0.8
Fox:-40%-26%
Big4:+1%-6%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

24 comments:

Spot said...

I think NBC is saving original Family Guy's for Bordertown. Not airing on non NFL nights is a good way to boost its average though.

Spot said...

Mulaney - I'd like to say "I told you" now, but everyone except Fox told so. Namely, that Mulaney would be barely over 0.5 with no NFL game anchoring the night + Family Guy in repeat. Perhaps Fox just wanted to see how low Mulaney would go, for the purpose of deciding where to burn it off.

Madam Secretary - Continues to disappoint me. I mean ratings are encouraging, which is disappointing for me as I predicted cancel in the game. Let's just hope it's adjusted multiple ticks down in finals.

Spot said...

That Bob's Burgers nearly matched Brooklyn Nine-Nine in a worse half-hour with a lower-rated lead-in just shows that Fox needs to pull Mulaney immediately and put Bob's there until Bordertown comes in. But given that Fox wants to seemingly phase that toon out, Bob's better hope Adult Swim or TBS comes in to save it.

Speaking of Fox, what is the deal with so few original Family Guy episodes? With preemptions and reruns, it's only aired 3 installments since the start of the season. Saving them as original lead-ins for Bordertown is a possible reason (nice theory, Patrick) but it's going to really hit its season average as more and more episodes are going to be in the March-May timeframe when DST kicks back in.

ABC clearly can't get rid of America's Funniest Home Videos at the end of the season. It's an anachronistic show in the era of YouTube, but it clearly has value to the network's Sundays. Finding a suitable host is pretty important.

Spot said...

Props for Bob's Burgers for doubling Mulaney in a much worse timeslot.
Brooklyn Nine-Nine is apparantly a second tier animated comedy. American Dad!, The Cleveland Show, and Bob's Burgers would basically do the same

Spot said...

FOX would probably be better off ceasing airing Bob's in that burnoff slot and simply doing Bob's+Last Man on Earth on a place like Tuesdays at 8h in the spring. It's higher rated than mostly everything on their lineup in a burnoff 7pmslot, it makes no sense.

Spot said...

It depends if they extend Mindy's 15 episode order. It's not like post New Girl is a great slot, but they might slot Last Man On Earth there

Spot said...

I think Weird Loners will pair with New Girl, makes more sense.

I really don't think there is any chance that they rescue Bob's from 7pm, but if they did, I would do Bob's+Last Man on Earth+Weird Loners+New Girl. I mean, what else can they air Tuesdays at 8? Mega bomb Glee? Backstorm would be eaten alive by NCIS and the voice. Wayward Pines is possible I guess.

Spot said...

Can they really phase Bob's out when it's pulling numbers that beat almost everything else on the network in a horrible timeslot? I mean, The Cleveland Show's ratings weren't good but they were definitely below what Bob's is doing.

Spot said...

If I remember correctly, Family Guy didn't receive an additional episode order last year at the time when the other animated comedies did. Maybe that has something to do with it?

Spot said...

I've thought about Bob's going to Tuesdays too - it wouldn't do great but if it could succeed at 7:30 then it might hold up OK.

Spot said...

This is my midseason idea for FOX. It will probably end up being too long, but here we go.
For January:
SUNDAY:
Simpsons
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Family Guy
Bordertown
MONDAY:
Gotham
Sleepy Hollow
TUESDAY:
Bob's Burgers
Last Man On Earth
New Girl
Mindy Project
WEDNESDAY:
American Idol
American Idol
THURSDAY:
American Idol
Backstorm
February:
SUNDAY:
Same
MONDAY:
Gotham
The Following
TUESDAY:
Same
WEDNESDAY:
American Idol
Empire
THURSDAY:
Bones
Backstorm
Fridays are for Glee. Maybe given Red Band Society a back nine just for something to pair it with.
Anyways, I'm not sure if Idol can logistically be cut down to 1 hour performance show as soon of February, but they need to use any pulse Idol has left to start up Empire. Backstorm also needs to get a boost from the early Thursday Idols, before being paired with compatible Bones. Anyways, any thoughts?

Spot said...

Cleveland's final season premiered to a 2.2 at 7:30. It's second episode (also airing first week of November had a 1.9. I wouldn't say Bob's is doing better, per say, but not worse for sure

Spot said...

Red Band Society does not need (nor really deserve) a back 9 pickup to go with Glee on Fridays. Fox is perfectly fine with going off the map on the weekend nights, and given how poorly the weekday shows are doing it's more appropriate to spend the time/money there. Just use Friday as an extension of Saturday: a night to amortize the cost its shows while giving them a second window for potentially finding new viewers.


If Glee has to be in the regular season, it should be Fridays at this point. There's also a possibility of using it in the summer on Tuesdays.

Spot said...

Can Fox phase out Bob's Burgers? Of course they can! They gave Bones the jerkaround last season and gave up American Dad! to TBS even as their schedule was cratering.


Should Fox phase out Bob Burgers? At this point I'd say no. As an original lead-in, it probably helped The Simpsons crest a 2.x (much like how AFHV appears to help OUAT, Resurrection, and Revenge). Even if a Tuesday move to 8:00 meant it'd drop a couple of ticks, it'd be stronger option than what Utopia averaged or what Dad would have pulled assuming just a league average decline.


But with new network heads and a toon that's not produced by Matt Groening or Seth MacFarlane, Bob's is probably lower on the totem pole.

Spot said...

Weird Loners takes over for The Mindy Project based on numbers alone: MP only has a 15 episode order for season 3, and Weird Loners has 6 (according to Wikipedia). That's 21 episodes to lead out of New Girl which has at least 22 episodes.


I'm intrigued by bumping New Girl to the 9:30 slot and making Weird Loners the tentpole for the hour. There's more upside there for sure.

Spot said...

There will be no additional comedy block on Fox this season, that's impossible to happen because they have no inventory for it.

Weird Loners has 6 episodes, and Last Man on Earth has around 10 episodes, Bordertown has 13. They barely have inventory for one block on Tuesday, so second Tuesday comedy block can exist only in fantasy schedules. Bad fantasy schedules.

On the other hand Fox has 3 unscheduled dramas with only 2 timeslots available for it (Tue 8 PM and Thu 9 PM ) : Wayward Pines, Backstrom, Glee (assuming Empire is Wed 9 PM, and Bones alternates with Idol at Thursday 8 PM).

Spot said...

Reilly once said New Girl will have 22 episodes.
So I think it will be:
9 PM: 22 x NG + 6 x of Weird Loners
9:30 PM: 15 x Mindy + 10 x Last Man on Earth.

That's 28 / 25, but there's many ways to synchronize it.

Spot said...

Seriously, FOX, put Bob's at 9:30, why so many Family Guy repeats?

Spot said...

It's not impossible. If Bob's Burgers has 16-18 episodes left in its order come January, it can pair with Last Man on Earth Tuesdays at 8:00. There's at most 19 Tuesdays to program between January 6th and May 19th (one week will have the State of the Union address so Fox will preempt its lineup for a simulcast of its cable news network). 10 weeks can be Bob's/Last Man while the other weeks can be a combination of Bob's/repeat or all repeats (when the 9:00 hour is also repeats). The repeats alone would be about as strong as original Glee episodes anyway, so Fox should aim a little higher. As for the 9:00 hour, the last week or two can be New Girl x2 if Weird Loners wraps its season up early, assuming Fox isn't going to give the burnoff treatment to a Becki Newton sitcom again.

I just don't like the idea of any of Fox's midseason dramas leading into the sitcoms. The comedy hour could shift up an hour and put the drama at 9:00, but how much help would they get from those incompatible comedies?

Spot said...

When you're in the shit up to your neck (and Fox is), wiggling around just makes things even worse.

And you, Patrick and omabin are suggesting exactly opposite thing. I can't even make myself to read those fantasy schedules (emphasize on fantasy) through the end, those are too imaginative to be considered seriously.

I'll just say there's reason why Fox would never move that female oriented comedy block to 8 PM in midseason. The Voice and Pretty Little Liars. Wait, that's actually two reasons.

Spot said...

So, someone has a whole heap of unearned arrogance because this idea is really dumb. FOX is never, ever going to end New Girl early (it got an additional episode recently); add about three additional evers to account for your suggested replacement being Weird Loners, something they're obviously not behind considering the tiny episode count and lack of information/promotional material at upfronts. Pushing New Girl to 9:30 *might* be feasible if they find a decent lead-in for a new 9:00 comedy, but FOX is not going to end arguably one of their cornerstone comedies pre-sweeps for something that looks, feels, and smells like a burn-off.
Also dumb is the idea that putting two niche-y new comedies is some piece of brilliant scheduling. FOX might as well cancel both if that's what they're going to do - neither show is going to be able to find an audience on its own (Weird Loners due to episode count, Last Man due to unusual subject matter), so it's suicidal to put them together and hope for the best. Networks build by using their assets, not by making things harder for shows that need what help they can get.
IMO, you're making this much harder than it needs to be. Weird Loners will/should take over for Mindy, thereby giving New Girl a double-episode season finale/try-out at 9:30. Last Man on Earth is such a weird show that its future is much less clear cut, but it seems like it'll be behind Bob's Burgers on Tuesdays, thrown onto Sundays if Bordertown is a dud, or used on Thursdays if the Idol results show is 30 minutes.

Spot said...

I really never so saw schedule as dumb as this yours is. 3rd grader knows math better, as this is very simply to calculate.


This travesty of the schedule pushes two dramas + The Last Man on the Earth to summer (to Friday in best case). No less but on a struggling network that needs to try everything ASAP. And for sole reason of justifying extremely stupid idea to create 2nd Tuesday comedy block that they actually don't have inventory for. Not even close, for Jan-May period Fox will have around 100 episodes shot, and they would need to populate 156 timeslots to (175 if they use Sun 7:30 PM).

All in all, by your schedule they would have like 25 to 35 hours of comedy repeats, while same amount of original program would be pushed to summer for no reason. Beyond laughable.

Spot said...

Last Man on Earth has a 13 ep order, unless I missed it getting reduced?

Spot said...

The Last Man on Earth is "around 10 episodes": http://collider.com/last-man-on-earth-phil-lord-chris-miller-interview/

Then I think I figured out Fox plans for comedies schedule:
Sun 9:30 PM - November to January Bob's Burgers, followed by Bordertown
Sun 7:30 PM - November to January Mulaney, followed by Bob's Burgers
Tue 9:30 PM - 15 episodes of The Mindy Project, in March The Last Man on Earth
Tue 9 PM - 22 episodes of New Girl, in April Weird Loners
Sun 8 PM, 8:30 PM, 9 PM - no in-season changes

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