Thursday, November 20, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/19/14

  • FINALS UPDATE: The Stalker surge was tempered a bit after it lost a tick in finals (1.6). Nothing else adjusted, which meant the season's first final 0.6 for The 100.
  • This was the first Wednesday in quite some time without some major event inflating one of the networks, plus the end of DST helping early-evening viewing. And it showed, as almost every network had something to crow about. We'll start with ABC, which had a great opening 90 minutes. A largely underwhelming season of The Middle (2.2) finally took a significant turn for the better, rising above all previous results this season. The Goldbergs (2.4) was up 0.3 to tie a season high, while Modern Family (3.7) came up just a tenth shy of its premiere's high point. Black-ish (2.6) and Nashville (1.5) were also up a tenth in prelims.
  • On CBS, Survivor (2.4) had its best rating since early October, and Stalker (1.7) bounced all the way back to the level it had been maintaining before all these events.
  • NBC continued to show nicely in the wake of its big crossover last week, with The Mysteries of Laura (1.4), Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.6) all faring a bit better than their usual pre-event deliveries.
  • Fox and the CW were steady across the board with last week's preliminaries, meaning yet another week of The 100 hoping to hold onto a preliminary 0.6 (a feat it has yet to pull off in three tries this season).


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 2.2 34% +16%+0.3n/a 1/7 -4% +16% -4% 2.2
The Goldbergs 2.4 40% +14%+0.3+0.3 1/7 +50% +14% +50% 2.3
Modern Family 3.7 43% +16%+0.5+0.3 2/8 +9% +16% +9% 3.3
Black-ish 2.6 42% +4%+0.1+0.5 4/8 n/a +4% +44% 2.1
Nashville 1.5 35% +7%+0.1+0.1 1/8 -6% +3% -9% 1.5
Survivor 2.4 31% +4%+0.1n/a 4/9 -4% +4% -2% 2.4
Criminal Minds 2.3 27% +0%+0.0+0.1 4/8 -18% +0% -19% 2.2
Stalker 1.6 25% +14%+0.2+0.0 5/8 n/a +14% -24% 1.6
The Mysteries of Laura 1.4 21% +8%+0.1n/a 4/9 n/a -44% +0% 1.5
Law and Order: SVU 1.8 29% -25%-0.6-1.1 3/8 +13% -25% +16% 1.9
Chicago PD 1.6 28% -27%-0.6-0.6 3/8 n/a -27% +52% 1.7
Hell's Kitchen 1.5 48% +0%+0.0n/a 1/10 n/a +3% -6% 1.6
Red Band Society 0.9 39% +0%+0.0+0.0 5/8 n/a +0% -47% 1.1
Arrow 0.9 43% +0%+0.0n/a 4/7 -10% +0% -10% 0.9
The 100 0.6 46% +20%+0.1+0.0 1/5 n/a +9% +0% 0.6

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Stalker gets some distance from its stalker the Cancellation Bear!

Spot said...

About NBC: the True formula says Blacklist is NBC stronges drama, but could we make a case for SVU or Fire? Those shows True ratings are a two-tenth improvement over their raw numbers, while Blacklist loses more than two tenths (lead-in comparsion is unfair and favors the other two, but I don't know if Blacklist can score a 2.1 out of a 1.3 comedy lead-in (a 1.8 out of a 1.4, just like SVU and Laura seems more likely though).

Spot said...


Spot said...

Great for The Middle and The Goldbergs. I consider them them the best comedies on TV right now. The Goldbergs growth this is season is absolutely CRAZY.
Poor comedy developement (Minus Blacklish) is masking it a bit, but we have FIVE comedies showing RAW GROWTH. Not just in Plus. The Simpsons, Family Guy, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Goldbergs, and Mom! Last year only HIMYM had raw growth and that was all finale related.

Spot said...

Don't worry. Stalker is a mediocre rated drama not owned by CBS in its first season using on of their better drama launching pads up. No chance of renewal except maybe if Criminal Minds somehow got cancelled because of contract negotiations.

Spot said...

Bellow is copy/paste of my comment about Stalker 7 days ago.
With this 1.7 (if it holds in finals) nothing really changed. A18-49 average went up for 0.01, from 1.64 to 1.65, while its A18-49+ remained at 97. It's now 8% behind Unforgettable, not 9% it was week ago. Minimal changes after expected uptick.

As much as I root for Stalker to be yanked from Wednesday ASAP (to bag 2 points in the game), it's fair to say last 4 episodes it went against World Series (twice), then CMA, then this NBC event. So it might bounce back a bit next week. But if it doesn't, then it's definitely dead, and Vegas route (was kicked from weekday timeslot after 15 episodes) is likely. But if ratings would stabilize, then it could go Unforgettable route (remained in its timeslot, cancelled after 22 episodes). Similarity to Vegas is also that CBS has replacement ready (Golden Boy / Battle Creek), but one they don't have much trust in.

Stalker A18-49+ after 7 episodes is around 97. It's tracking almost 10% behind Unforgettable (106 A18-49+ after 7 episodes), but is ahead of Vegas (89 after 7) for practically equal amount. It's really too early too tell, I think.

Spot said...

I'm divided about the current era, is it a comedy one or a drama one.

The poor comedy development over the recent years led me to believe that comedies have peaked in 2011 (CBS mondays being the poster child of that era), while the dramas were slowly fading after the writers strike (huge drops by shows like House, Grey's and DH). Spot posted an article about it (I just can't find it right now).

But, right now, the difference between sitcoms and dramas sits at 18 points (110-92), even though sitcoms have steadily dropped since week one (they started at 134 thanks to one hour of Big Bang and FOX huge sunday numbers and were at 116 in week 2) while the dramas have stayed at either 92 or 93 during the entire season. However, in 2013-13, they were mostly separeted by less than 10 points, finishing with the sitcoms leading by eight at the end of the season (102-94).

Five sitcoms growing is impressive, however, except for Goldbergs, the majority of this growth seems fraudulent (Mom is after TBBT, FOX airing its sunday lineup a lot more after the NFL). Goldbergs itself got a better slot, but it is where it should have been for its first season.

Spot said...

Keep in mind in that comparison that dramas get mostly all of the horrible schedule bargaining. Between the 10pm hour, CBS syndication farms on weekend nights and all the Friday airings (compared to only one hour of comedy), there is already a lot of account for. Then you have the CW which only airs drama (I consider Whose Line to be reality) - if you do big 4 only comparisons, drama is at 1.72 and comedy at 1.87.

Maybe you can argue that comedy is still stronger this year but I think the trend is clearly against it.

Spot said...

January 27
Hollywood Game Night-1.3
The Blacklist-2.5

People always forget that THIS actually happened.

Spot said...

Could Elementary go up this week? It's possible. The ratings for the Sunday-Thursday 10 PM dramas on CBS last week were 1.2, 1.5, 1.3, 1.4, 1.0. Just awful. This week it looks a bit better with 1.3, 1.7, 1.6, 1.7, TBA. CBS 10 PM dramas tracking up 16% week to week.

Spot said...

This might go down as a transitional phase towards a drama era. Comedies are still in better situations as you said.

Spot said...

We'll get our answer in eleven weeks, when NBC bets the farm (SB lead-out and all) on The Blacklist being able to be a strong Thursday player on an island. Already fascinated to see what the Question will be that night...

Spot said...

I expect a big spike for Murder though. And the 10pm dramas last week on Tuesday and Wednesday had some explanation for being down (crossover on NBC); Elementary had a regular week as far as I can tell. I expect it to stay within the 0.9-1.2 range.

Spot said...

I really don't see any scenario in which that show gets renewed. It's a certain cancellation for me, not even a likely one. Even CSI is more likely to be renewed and to fill a mentalist type of role next season than Stalker. Why would they?

Spot said...

The Blacklist: NBC's highest-rated scripted show, but with NBC's highest-rated entertainment series as a lead-in and against second-tier dramas on ABC and CBS. Airs on a pretty high-viewed night.

Chicago Fire: NBC's second-highest rated scripted show with a middling/poor comedy lead-in and against second/third-tier dramas on ABC and CBS. Airs on a decently-viewed night.

SVU: NBC's third-highest rated scripted show with a middling/poor drama lead-in and against top-tier comedies and dramas on ABC and CBS. Airs on a decently-viewed night.

So when The Blacklist moves, it picks up a lot of negatives: weaker lead-in (TBL or comedies?), more/stronger competition (Scandal, American Idol, 2.5 Men & low-priority CBS sitcom) and a lower-viewed night (Thursday). If it hits the mid-1's or higher, I'd still probably consider it stronger than Fire or SVU.

The real value in a show is what it can do for the surrounding pieces, though. Given the drop from The Voice and the low-1's that About a Boy pulls, you can't argue that The Blacklist and ChiFi have any halo effect (though being scheduled at 10:00 makes that difficult to do anyway. Scandal's a real anomaly in how much it helped Grey's Anatomy the past couple of seasons, an argument I make when we saw that Grey's Oh-bounce was merely holding steady after Scandal left in favor of Black Box). SVU, though, can funnel enough audience to ChiPD to make it a viable show to renew and probably helps Laura's average by up to a tenth. So while The Blacklist is NBC's strongest drama, SVU and ChiFi have proven to be more valuable on the whole.

Spot said...

Person of Interest had a lead-in upgrade and Stalker finally had it's first normal Wednesday with less competition. Also, NCIS: LA didn't have to face The Blacklist. I think Elementary will be steady.

Spot said...

Plenty of shows behind it in raw numbers... but that's a product of its lead-in, and those shows behind it aren't there for first-run numbers. Yeah, the bear probably gets to dine on it.

Spot said...

In terms of strength overall, Blacklist is the best, but a look at the whole puzzle overall can be a different story.

In the NBC drama totem pole, the top of the stick is Blacklist, CF, and SVU. In my opinion, Chicago Fire is at the top with Blacklist at a very close second. I put Blacklist down a peg mainly due to me wanting to see how it does on Thursday, though I expect it to hit NCIS or Criminal Minds numbers.

Chicago Fire meanwhile has done rather impressive. It's lowest was a Season 1 1.4, and in those two cases, one was on Thanksgiving Eve and Take it All as a lead-in. Meanwhile, half of Season 2 was behind Growing Up Fisher and even before then was consistently around 1.9-2.3. And this season, with blegh About A Boy lead-in, and has only gone below 1.9 once, and that was due to election preemptions.

SVU is pretty impressive as well. It's been on for 16 seasons and has done incredibly well in maintaining its audience, even with crime competition and only down about 3% from a previous season that overachieved.

Now below the head is the torso of the pole, or the "Good, Not Great". These go to Chicago PD and Grimm. PD had done very well overall and stayed relatively steady, but the show only seems to do well when SVU does well. So, while good, NBC probably didn't want a lead-in dependent series. Grimm has done decent on Fridays, and facing against Shark Tank is no easy hassle, but it hasn't really shined, and hasn't really hold as strongly as any of the other returning dramas. Rather, it has been a great plug for a Friday hole, and will be that way for two or so more seasons.

Then at the waist are the "I Dunno" shows. That being Laura, Parenthood, and State of Affairs. The former since, while decent enough and is relatively compatible, hasn't really done gangbusters, is very old-skewing, and there's still many midseason shows to look out for. If renewed, it seems more likely to be Friday-bound, especially with Shades of Blue being almost the same exact show. State of Affairs has only one episode that only did average at worst, so I can't say much. Parenthood has done the same numbers as Thursday last season, but that's not saying much.

Then the butt of the pole is the "Point and Laugh" show, Constantine. I don't think I have to explain that.

Spot said...

So Fox just dumped their other winter premieres on us:

Glee will be on Fridays starting January 9, accompanied with some show called "World's Funniest Fails"...that show will save Fox. Glee ends March 20 with a two-hour finale.

Backstrom is on Thursdays starting January 22 at 9...weird timeslot with the other drama competition there, but they are airing it before Pope and Red duke it out, so I guess it's kind of okay...sort of, not really.

Last Man on Earth gets a 1-hour premiere March 1 and airs post Family Guy starting March Bordertown isn't of high priority? Odd.

Following returns March 2nd, and will be Monday 9PM following Gotham...I kinda expected that.

Hell's Kitchen returns again in March 3rd replacing Masterchef Jr...another one already?

Bones returns March 26th at 8, so I guess Idol will be on Wednesdays only thru April and May, minus the two-night finale?

And finally Weird Loners goes into Mindy Project's slot March 31.

So Bordertown, Wayward Pines, and 5th Grader are summer shows?

Spot said...

And I was just about to complain about people refusing to watch The 100, too. Now I get to encourage more people to come in and actually start some upward momentum.

Spot said...

Bordertown is probably delayed for next fall to haunt us Bob's Burgers fans with our inevitable cancelation despite outrating everything on FOX from mondays to fridays.

Wayward Pines must be awful to be delayed again, it's from M. Night Shyamalan so this is expected.

Backstrom seems very compatible with Bones, but so was The Finder and it is being thrown to the wolves with a 1.3 lead-in and the hottest dramas from ABC and NBC going against it.

Rushing Hell's Kitchen AGAIN is such a terrible move that I refuse to go further, awful, just awful.

Spot said...

Now, time to break FOX schedule.

8 PM Gotham (with at least six repeats)
9 PM Sleepy Hollow (8 episodes from jan 5th to feb 23rd)/ The Following (15 episodes from march 2nd to june 1st!!) We're probably going to see Ramsay leading to Poe.

8 PM MasterChef Junior (8 episodes from jan 6th to feb 24th - they announced it as a season premiere, wtf?)/ Hell's Kitchen (who knows)
9 PM New Girl (FOX has 12 episodes left, another show they'll need at least 6 repeats)
9:30 PM Mindy (10 episodes left for 12 tuesdays from jan 6th to march 24th, needs 2 repeats)/ Weird Loners (likely 8 episodes from march 31st to mat 19th)
If Empire has 13 episodes, it is going to air until april 1st, but Idol leaves thursdays one week before, they'll probably air one or two Idol episodes on tuesdays considering this.
8 PM Bones (it is going to air 10 episodes in the fall, returning on march 26th means its order is not 24 episodes like in the previous years, there is room for just 8 episodes in regular season)
9PM Backstrom finishes on april 16th if they air it repeat free, I see this show pulling a Rake and getting burned off though.
Obvious dead air, 11 weeks of Glee? That's quick.

Spot said...

Actually, Hell's Kitchen returns March 3rd. This is still a stupid idea, but I'm not an executive, so what do I know?

Spot said...

MasterChef Junior has cycles of 7 episodes (maybe 8 now), that IS 3rd season premiere at January 6th. They're currently airing 2nd cycle. But I don't understand why they didn't make longer break between seasons, this s another saturation in making. They could put remaining episodes of Hell's Kitchen current season there. They're air it anyway there in-season.

All in all, that's dumb schedule, The part they announced today, Idol/Empire combo I like.

Spot said...

Bordertown is animated - so probably production pace is problem, and it's simply pushed to next fall. Or it is simply pre-cancelled, but I doubt because it's from Seth MacFarlane.

While Wayward Pines, that one now looks dead, pushed for zillionth time. But maybe they'll air it in summer.

Spot said...

Actually, I believe Cleveland Show was midseason, then premiered in Fall...huh.

Spot said...

As for schedule itself, I don't like it at all. On the other hand, their midseason shows didn't look promising (ratings wise, The Last Man of Earth looks creatively good) , so if poor scheduling kills that crap few weeks (or months) earlier than those shows would naturally die because of bad quality causes... who cares.

From awfully bad to less bad in Fox "World's Biggest Failures" schedule:
1. Backstrom thrown to the wolves, airing against two strongest broadcast drama. Couldn't those idiots at least put it at 8 PM, then? (Idol at 9 PM). Why just not put it on Saturday, Fox? Backstrom would do better ratings there,

2. Five weeks hiatus for Gotham / Sleepy hollow just when that lineup started heating up. Moronic. Half of people will forget about those two shows. OK, not exactly that much, but ratings will suffer.

3. MasterChef Junior only 3 weeks break between cycled. Dumb.

4. The Following soaking up strong Gotham lead-in.Yes, it is most tonally close to Goham (as they killed Hierolglyph before production, and Wayward Pines after production). But blind man can see 3rd season of The Following won't do any better than cancelled Red Band Society is doing now. Actually, I think in True it will do worse than RBS, because of stronger lead-in.

5. Mindy will air many episodes behind New Girl repeats to make room for some crap called Weirs Loners.

6. Bones burn-off 14 episodes in last 7 weeks of seasons. But, OK, it will come earlier instead one of those numerous flops

Spot said...

The weirdest thing is Bob's Burgers is keeping its slot for an extended perioid of time! They gave it a massive timeslot downgrade. Then erratic scheduling this year. Now they gave it back a nice timeslot and are keeping it there for a good while. I was sure that this year was going to be last, but if looks like Bob's Budgers will get another season!

Spot said...

What no one is talking about regarding this schedule is how much FOX doesn't believe in Backstorm. They practically scheduled it to be pulled by early February. The current schedule leaves no space for Bones to air all of its season order and, more important than that, it leaves no space for American Idol to deal with its performance shows. I don't actually watch the show but people who do were saying how difficult it would be for the show, that was 3 hours per week last season at the beginning of the live shows, to be one hour only all of the sudden. If it's anything like the voice I have no idea either (as much as that show also has filler). This makes me believe that neither of those unlikely things (Idol's very odd episodes, Bones not airing in season) will happen and instead FOX will just pull Backstorm in early Febrary sweeps and bring back Bones earlier than announced, leaving an hour of AI on Thursdays to endure TGIT.

Spot said...

In theory, Idol could expand on Weds to 2 hours when Empire finishes its run (in time for the live shows?), with results in the same show (like Dancing With The Stars' current format). However, I agree with you that Backstrom is set up to fail here and the lack of room for all of Bones is telling.

Spot said...

It will, but only because there are episodes already in production.

Spot said...

Well, it also is actually getting renewable ratings. Last season it was having a hard time breaking a 1.0 and hit a .6!

Spot said...

Last season, for most of its Thursday run, Rake rated lower than The Vampire Diaries, but higher than Reign, I mean, in A18-49, in A18-34 it was bellow TVD right from the start.
I expect same from Backstorm, only thing is both TVD and Reign are much weaker this season. Ouch. Disclaimer: Maybe not for first 2 episode, but when from #3 whenboth Scandal and Blacklist will be on Thursday.

Over/Under: 3.5 episodes before Backstorm is pulled. .
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised Glee does better on Friday, than Backstorm on Thursday.

Spot said...

I agree with that, but a 7 PM timeslot in the spring is way more brutal than 7:30 PM in the fall.

30 minutes is enough to make a difference, see American Dad htting low 1s, terrible numbers bur usually 3-4 tenths better than Bob's, and both were very close ratings-wise, I agree it's FOX weakest animation since Cleveland Show got canceled, but when you look at a network that has struggled to put anything in the air that averages above a 1.5, you see its utlity.

I expect it to hit low 1s when it goes back to 7:30 in the spring, FOX will keep it until they find something at 9:30 that isn't a Mulaney-esque flop

Spot said...

Over, 4.

Enough to place a two-hour idol or repeats on february 19th and bring Bones back on february 26th.

FOX will probably see how it does against Bboth Scandal and Blacklist for two weeks, then, Manhattan Love Story for you all.

Spot said...

Don't forget that American Idol was also stronger at the beginning of last season. I don't think it will have the same kind of lead-in juice this year, even early on.

Spot said...

But even adjusting for timeslot and viewing levels, that .6 is significantly worse than the 1.7 it just got Post Family Guy. It underperformed badly last spring and has been "overperforming" in its 2 7:30 episodes this fall

Spot said...

Thanks. I've forgotten about Rake premiering early in Idol run, I thought it wasn't in January, but alter. I remembered it wrong, it was Survivor Jack that premiered late. I mixed up Fox flops. No wonder, when there's so many of it.

Spot said...

But you know what, I don't mind this schedule as much as you do. Yes, it completely throws Backstorm to the wolves, but I think that is a dead show walking anyway, so it wouldn't have a much better chance Tuesdays at 8 against NCIS anyway. And I think Ramsay at least helps New Girl a bit more, this would do nothing for it and force it to self start again.

This schedule to me reads the following from FOX:
- we are very high on Empire and are even willing to cut Idol's highest rated hours (and probably their highest rated hours of the year in the entertainment crowd excluding the FG-TS crossover event) for it AND we are premiering it right after Idol's very strongest hour of the season
- we are high on Last Man on Earth (or else they could leave Bob's there)
- we have absolutely no trust in Backstorm but hey if it's the surprise mega hit of the season we didn't burn it on a Friday or something right away
- we've kind of given up on the following, but we are trying to make you not notice that (yes, it has gotham lead-in in theory but gotham will be almost out of episodes by then and I suspect that in non sweeps periods (march and april, which is when tf will mostly air), the show will have to self start, not to mention that it will run episodes through the summer unless there are 3 double pumps
- Weird Loners is an afterthought we are not high on (or else they would swap it with New Girl)
- we will continue to use Ramsay and Bones as we need to plug holes because we can't focus on every single slot at the same time and some of them are just downright impossible to deal with right now (hello Tuesdays at 8), no matter the damage to those shows.

I hate what they are doing with the Ramsay shows on Thursday and I also don't understand the need to force Gotham to go up until May Sweeps instead of simply pairing Wayward pines with the following but other than that? This schedule is passable I think, I am not sure I could have done much better (and this assumes Thursdays February onwards will be Bones | American Idol, not Bones | Backstorm)

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