Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 11/11/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (3.0) and The Mindy Project (1.1) each upticked.
  • NBC's big cross-over week began with a two-hour The Voice (2.9) leading into Chicago Fire (2.2), which did about what would be expected from that kind of lead-in injection and not much more. As usual with these multi-night cross-overs, the bigger bounce tends to come on the second night when the first show's audience follows along, so let's see what happens with Law and Order: SVU and Chicago PD tonight.
  • On Fox, MasterChef Junior (1.8) actually held its entire premiere rating, a truly massive win for the network given the considerable influx of competition at 8/7c. But New Girl (1.3) and The Mindy Project (1.0) fell back to their normal post-Utopia levels, likely taking a hit from The Voice's presence at 9/8c.
  • The Voice at 9/8c also didn't help CBS, where NCIS: New Orleans (2.0) and Person of Interest (1.3) took distressingly large steps down. 
  • ABC's Agents of SHIELD (1.5) will once again hope for a finals uptick to avoid a new low. Forever (1.0) also inched down again, while the installation of a repeat Modern Family (0.9) at 8:30 matched last week's Selfie result (but at least was better than Manhattan Love Story).
  • A solid week for the CW continued as The Flash (1.4) had its first non-drop in week five, while the 200th Supernatural (0.9) was up a tenth.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Selfie 0.9 35% +0%+0.0n/a 5/7 n/a +0% -59% 1.0
Modern Family (R) 0.9 40% +0% -59% 1.2
Agents of SHIELD 1.5 45% -12%-0.2-0.2 7/7 -32% +25% +3% 1.7
Forever 1.0 30% -9%-0.1-0.2 8/8 n/a +43% +25% 1.3
ABC:+21%-24%
NCIS 2.3 17% -12%-0.3n/a 7/7 -23% +64% -22% 2.3
NCIS: New Orleans 2.0 17% -13%-0.3-0.3 7/7 n/a +33% -17% 1.8
Person of Interest 1.3 18% -24%-0.4-0.3 7/7 -35% +53% -35% 1.3
CBS:+49%-24%
The Voice Tue 3.0 33% +30%+0.7n/a 5/8 -12% +79% +14% 2.9
Chicago Fire 2.2 31% +29%+0.5+1.8 3/7 +0% +132% +0% 2.0
NBC:+91%+10%
MasterChef Junior 1.8 47% +0%+0.0n/a 1/2 n/a -3% +38% 1.8
New Girl 1.3 55% -19%-0.3+0.0 4/7 -24% -19% -24% 1.4
The Mindy Project 1.1 57% -15%-0.2-0.3 3/7 -21% -15% -21% 1.2
Fox:-9%+5%
The Flash 1.4 51% +0%+0.0n/a 4/5 n/a +155% +27% 1.4
Supernatural 0.9 53% +13%+0.1+0.0 3/5 -18% +125% -14% 0.7
CW:+142%+7%
Big5:+45%-6%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

20 comments:

Spot said...

CBS doesn't own Person of Interest, so I don't see a point in keeping it around for another season. Give something new a shot, or at least move CSI into the timeslot.

Spot said...

The CW is having a spectacular week, I hope the 100 follow suit tonight and finally inches up!

Elsewhere, POI may have just put itself legitimately in danger. I still have a hard time believing it they would outright cancelling it after just 4 seasons and without airing it for at least one year on a weekend night but I don't think it's impossible anymore. The NCIS twins also didn't do particularly well.

The Voice was solid but not particularly impressive and I actually think Chicago Fire did better than usual when following the voice since said voice lead-in was down, and considering CF has shown not to change much its audience with the lead-in, for the better and for the worse.

On ABC, I hope Shield adjusts up and this whole thing has to be fixed very soon.

Finally, FOX had probably the best (or tied with Flash, I dunno) result of the night from Masterchef Jr and I seriously doubt that Season 3 airs any later than this Spring at this pace. New Girl and Mindy didn't really do that badly considering that the voice skews pretty similar to their audience and that show was against them. I think they will rebound next week.

Spot said...

Unless it's impossible due to child labor laws or production issues, Fox should really look at making season 3 of MasterChef Junior more than six episodes. It's doing much better business than Hell's Kitchen even though it's facing stronger reality show competition specifically (The Voice vs. Survivor) and entertainment programming in general (NCIS/The Flash/Selfie vs. The Middle & The Goldbergs/The Mysteries of Laura/Arrow).

Given how much stronger NBC was at 9:00, I wouldn't read too much into SHIELD's drop. NCIS: NoLa and PoI are more worrisome, though.

Spot said...

I still think they should have put Hell's on the bench instead of Masterchef Junior and aired Masterchef Jr. with Red Band on Wednesdays. Hell's would have likely benefited from a break after having finished so late in the summer and I don't think Masterchef Jr. would have worse than it is doing now. The only problem would have been the season order for Masterchef Jr. They really have to solve that issue.

Spot said...

Here is the ranking for the top ten highest rated programs last night in the demo that no one talks about, 25-54:
1. 3.9 The Voice 9-10pm
2. 3.8 The Voice 8-9pm
3. 3.6 NCIS
4. 3.0 NCIS NO
5. 2.9 Chicago Fire
6. 2.2 Person of Interest
7. 2.0 Master Chef Jr:
8. 1.9 Marvels Agents of SHIELD
9. 1.5 The Flash
10. 1.4 New Girl

Spot said...

I agree. A reality show's audience tends to need a break between seasons. Otherwise, they tire of it quicker. (see: Wipeout, So You Think You Can Dance).

Spot said...

Which is why I think the voice shouldn't come back right after the super bowl but rather in very late february/ early march.

Spot said...

They have problem with baseball. This fall Fox schedule is: 5 "normal" weeks / 2 weeks of World Series / 8 more "normal" weeks. Masterchef Junior has 7 episodes format, so it's more convenient to them to air MCJ during those last 8 weeks. Similar will happen each season.

Spot said...

Whilst 25-54 numbers will tend to be bigger than 18-49, it's still startling how much bigger it is in the case of the NCIS franchise (even if it's not exactly surprising). Maybe CBS really does sell ad spots for those shows in 25-54 (though we'll never really know).

Conversely, as if MasterChef Junior wasn't already successful enough, those numbers seem to suggest it skews impressively young too. At this point, it might legitimately be FOX's #1 returning show of the season so far...

Spot said...

I suspect they are limited to a certain length of cycle, but they'll definitely go two cycles a year now for as long as it's anywhere near this hot (no cooking pun intended). Could they even go three cycles a year, running late fall/spring/summer? It'd still add up to only 21 episodes a year.

Spot said...

New Girl is back on the track, and now it's 99.99% sure renewal. I needlessly panicked after that 1.2 W18-34 against Marry Me premiere. Ratings are back to usual around 1.6 W18-34 (it was as high as 1.8 last week, but versus unusually weak competition). To put it in perspective, that 1.6 means something like $3 million ads money for Fox, while airing fee is less than $2 million per episode. I know $3 million looks exaggerated, but is not - between Fox's high CPM, New Girl favorable skew and whatnot, this show commands insane high ad rates.

Yes, New Girl most probably will go down in spring again, but ratings should drop to half of the fall ratings to put it in danger. Which isn't going to happen.

Spot said...

Game 6 & 7?

Spot said...

Yeah good point about the baseball schedule. I just think Hell's shouldn't have been brought back so soon, but you are right that the orders wouldn't really fit.

Spot said...

Where do you get the data for the cost of each episode (or airing fee)? I would like to see it for a bunch of other shows!

About your point, I agree that New Girl will be renewed. What is your take on Mindy by the way?

Spot said...

MLS had a 1.30 for its first episode (post Nielsen revision)

Spot said...

thx

Spot said...

Thanks.

Spot said...

No problem ;)

Spot said...

There is no data, of course. Those are rough guesstimates, I can be 10% or even 20% off, But it can be guessed using common known data.

Cost (unless it's old show with very expensive cast):
comedies $2.5-3.5 mill. per hour, dramas 3-4 mill. (CW dramas 2).

Airing fee: 50% to 70% of production cost. Weekend shows usually towards lower end. Never above 70%. Sometime lower than 50%, but only when studio desperately needs episodes for syndication.

CPM: Fox higher than ABC/NBC, CBS lower than ABC/NBC, CW much lower.

Ad cost: Adage survey. But those are just guarantees, actual C3 ratings must be looked (in fact, Live+SD approximation as we don't know C3).

Exceptions: Spot's annual analyse of Adage and other survey. Basically, it shows ad cost is correlated to A18-49 ratings, but shows with good 18-34 ratings get even better price.

Ad income: There is 36 slots for ads in hour. But ad agency takes provision, affiliates have some slots for them, and network uses some slots for promoting other own shows - so it's more like 24 per hour.

Spot said...

Everything makes sense to me, thanks for the explanation!

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