Thursday, November 13, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/12/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Modern Family (3.2) went up a tenth in finals, though this was still a new season low by two tenths. For the third straight week, The 100 (0.5) failed to hang onto its preliminary.
  • NBC took over the Wednesday primetime lead with a very strong finish to its Dick Wolf crossover. It started with a special hour of The Voice (2.5) matching the 2.5 for its special Thursday ep last year. That led into the two-hour drama event, which just about matched The Voice's delivery; there were massive spikes for Law and Order: SVU (2.4) and Chicago PD (2.2). Both shows went multiple tenths above their previous season highs this season, and PD tied its 2.2 series high from last season.
  • Against a stronger NBC (but a weaker ABC with the CMA Awards gone), it was a weirdly mixed bag on pretty much every other network:
    • ABC saw Modern Family (3.1) take a sizable hit, going well below any previous result this season, while The Goldbergs (2.1) also hit a season low, but the rest of the lineup was fairly normal;
    • On CBS, Survivor (2.3) was even against The Voice and Criminal Minds (2.3) bounced back to about normal after last week's stinker against the CMAs, but Stalker (1.4) hit another new low;
    • Fox's Hell's Kitchen (1.5) continued a very good week for Gordon Ramsay by rising to tie a season high, which is pretty strong given the added unscripted competition. But this was of no help to Red Band Society (0.9);
    • And Arrow (0.9) fell back to earth, ending its run of three straight upticks, but The 100 posted a third straight preliminary 0.6 and will hope this one holds in finals.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 1.9 30% +6%+0.1n/a 4/6 -21% -59% -21% 2.0
The Goldbergs 2.1 35% -5%-0.1+0.1 6/6 +24% -55% +17% 2.1
Modern Family 3.2 41% -9%-0.3-0.1 7/7 -16% -35% -16% 3.0
Black-ish 2.5 41% -7%-0.2-0.3 4/7 n/a -47% +25% 2.1
Nashville 1.4 31% +0%+0.0-0.2 2/7 -7% -66% -7% 1.5
ABC:-54%-4%
Survivor 2.3 31% +0%+0.0n/a 4/8 -8% +0% -8% 2.3
Criminal Minds 2.3 28% +10%+0.2+0.0 4/7 -15% +7% -16% 2.2
Stalker 1.4 25% -7%-0.1+0.2 7/7 n/a -7% -28% 1.4
CBS:+1%-17%
The Voice Tue 2.5 30% -17%-0.5n/a 7/9 -26% +92% +67% 2.5
Law and Order: SVU 2.4 30% +50%+0.8+1.2 1/7 +50% +45% +55% 2.2
Chicago PD 2.2 29% +57%+0.8+0.8 1/7 n/a +63% +100% 2.1
NBC:+65%+71%
Hell's Kitchen 1.5 51% +15%+0.2n/a 1/9 n/a +11% -12% 1.6
Red Band Society 0.9 40% +0%+0.0+0.2 5/7 n/a +6% -49% 1.1
Fox:+9%-30%
Arrow 0.9 44% -18%-0.2n/a 4/6 -25% -18% -25% 0.9
The 100 0.5 36% +0%+0.0-0.2 1/4 n/a -9% -17% 0.5
CW:-15%-22%
Big5:-15%-3%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

38 comments:

Spot said...

- NBC was obviously the biggest winner last night. SVU within 1 tenth of the voice is very very impressive and PD also held up pretty well.
- ABC had a generally poor night, though The Middle inching up in spite of the voice and Blackish posting what is probably the best retention from MF yet is also amazing. But TG and especially MF had kind of bad nights. Nashville hanging in there at 10.
- CBS did better than I expected with Survivor holding its own against the voice and Criminal Minds enduring the SVU spike pretty well. Stalker though looks awful at 10pm tying Nashville and losing almost a full point from CM. It should have never gotten a back 9, it was a clear 13 and out case.
- Hell's Kitchen is showing some life finally, and it has even more value since it came against the most unscripted competition it has had the whole season. Maybe Masterchef Jr. is helping a bit?
- The CW did okay. I wish both shows were higher but Arrow is still stolid and if the 100 doesn't adjust down (finally) it would be a season high, so it could be worse.

Spot said...

You look at those crossover numbers and tell me sweeps don't matter. That's not happening in March!

Spot said...

By the way, NBC is officially on the upswing in all three Wednesday hours now. They are at 0% at 8pm, +3% at 9pm and +17% at 10pm, making up for a +6% night year to year overall. Though most of the improvement obviously comes from the Ironside fiasco and from the special voice edition last night, I think it's very noteworthy how the 9pm hour is up despite the save benson saga last fall and how the other hours are close enough for these factors to make a difference.

Spot said...

Look at these crazy stats for this week. CBS' 4 top dramas NCIS, Criminal Minds, NCIS: NO, and Scorpion had 2.3, 2.3, 2.0, 2.0 respectively this week. NBC's 4 top dramas The Blacklist, SVU, Chicago Fire, and Chicago PD had 2.5, 2.4, 2.2, 2.2 this week. NBC's top 4 dramas averaged higher than CBS' top 4 dramas with no show being big enough to be called an outlier. Even crazier stats are last week ABC's 4 top dramas Scandal, Murder, Once, and Grey's had 2.9, 2.8, 2.5, 2.4.

Spot said...

As much as I root for Stalker to be yanked from Wednesday ASAP (to bag 2 points in the game), it's fair to say last 4 episodes it went against World Series (twice), then CMA, then this NBC event. So it might bounce back a bit next week. But if it doesn't, then it's definitely dead, and Vegas route (was kicked from weekday timeslot after 15 episodes) is likely. But if ratings would stabilize, then it could go Unforgettable route (remained in its timeslot, cancelled after 22 episodes). Similarity to Vegas is also that CBS has replacement ready (Golden Boy / Battle Creek), but one tehy don't trust much in.

Stalker A18-49+ after 7 episodes is around 97. It's tracking almost 10% behind Unforgettable (106 A18-49+ after 7 episodes), but is ahead of Vegas (89 after 5) for practically same amount. It's really too early too tell, I think.

Spot said...

I think its possible CBS could put Stalker on hiatus, replace it with CSI: Cyber, and have it take over for CSI on Sunday after 18 episodes. They already know Stalker is never going to hit syndication and are planning cutting CSI prime loose, so I think launching CSI: Cyber in a viable timeslot is necessary.

Spot said...

The CBS dramas are really starting to lose their 18-49 audience.

Spot said...

I think for the Goldbergs, the Voice prevented some of its growing at the 8:30 half hour because the Voice was also swinging up at the half hour. The Middle benefited from its first non DST episode nice February.

Spot said...

Good idea. Not very CBS-ish, but this year CBS schedule is anything but CBS-ish, Your idea certainy gives them tmost flexibility.

Spot said...

I agree in both accounts.

Spot said...

The crazy thing though is NBC could for from 4 dramas over a 2.0 to NONE in single week. The Blacklist is going on hiatus. Chicago Fire gets About a Boy lead in (which had a .9 last time!). SVU goes from a Voice lead in to Mysteries of Laura and Chicago PD loses its crossover advantage.

Spot said...

Only, ABC dramas are killing each week, and CBS dramas are doing OK each week. While NBC dramas did good only this time, and the next time it will happen in 6 or 12 months from now.

In other words, one good NBC week fueled by 5 hours of The Voice doesn't change the fact ABC is having great season, CBS is having good season (more like merely OK, but good compared to previous few years), and NBC is having really bad season.

Spot said...

Now the Law & Order Universe consist of these shows:
Law & Order
Law & Order: SVU
Law & Order: Criminal Intent
Law & Order: Trial by Jury
Law & Order: LA
Homicide: Life on the Streets
New York Undercover
Deadline
Conviction
In Plain Sight
Chicago Fire
Chicago PD
That's just insane!

Spot said...

The JAG franchise isn't as bad, but still:
JAG
NCIS
NCIS: LA
Hawaii 5-0
NCIS: NO
Scorpion
Plus failed backdoor pilots:
JAG: San Diego
NCIS: Red

Spot said...

Eh, I think SOA could premiere with low 2s, but after that no more until February.

Spot said...

Depending if they give it the lead in from the Voice final or not, potentially Chicago Fire, but yeah. That's pretty much it.

Spot said...

I agree about NBC. All of its comedies are done by the end of the year and the only two dramas they premiered don't look to make it to season 2. Development wise it is pretty bad. They are basically having to redo both Sunday and Thursday nights by midseason as well as a complete overhaul of comedy. They must be praying at least one of State of Affairs, Allegiant, Aquarius, Odyssey, AD, Kimmie, One Big Happy, or Mr. Robinson are worth the renewal, because there is a chance they could go this year with zero development. AD is the only thing I have confidence that can remotely self start, but that isn't premiering until Easter and is kinda limited in how long it could even run

Spot said...

Agree about NBC, although I think CBS is having, at best, a merely acceptable season, for them. A lot of problems were masked by TNF and I think post-holidays is going to be problematic. That and all of its comedies are tanking hard, except TBBT - and even that is starting to show early signs of weakness after being yanked around the schedule.

Spot said...

I would not classify CBS as having good season at all. Like the commenter below me said, TNF masked a lot of problems, particularly the entire Thursday lineup and also the weakness of the Monday lineup without TBBT. They are having what I think is sort of an opposite of ABC season last year: great season with newbies but very bad season in the veterans for the most part (as opposed to ABC's last year of great season with veterans but very bad season in the newbies for the most part).

Spot said...

I love that idea, nice one.

But CBS Sunday schedule is intriguing to me in a number of aspects. Why are they airing originals of Undercover Boss and Mentalist during Christmas break instead of usual filler that everyone does (it's the dead-est time of the year tv-wise) and then not have enough originals of the usual occupants to get them through may? And why is Madam Secretary airing in two weeks in which the good wife doesn't - does that show has 24 episodes? And why are both of these dramas returning at early January and facing the entire event season when they could return later and avoid it entirely? Their plan seems very odd!

Spot said...

Well, maybe you (and others) need to read entire comment. It says:
"merely OK, but good compared to previous few years".

I also said "CBS dramas are doing OK" - dramas, not scripted.

Spot said...

Well, now NBC has the answer about which show would get the best retention out of The Voice: their 16 year-old raprocedural.

This was the week where Stalker was put out of its misery, rejected by Criminal Minds' viewers. Battle Creek must be awful for not getting a shot there.

Spot said...

When last did NBC win a Wednesday in-season?

Spot said...

If they had just bumped the second Amazing Race Cycle to summer they could have avoided this basically burning off of a whole season of Undercover Boss. They had to fit so many episodes in between Race cycles, which involved switching around Sunday

Spot said...

I've never actually heard of JAG: San Diego until your post. Interesting!

Spot said...

And NBC can't find a way to get a sitcom roped into this crossover thing (a la CSI/TAAHM)? If anyone could save sitcoms for NBC, it'd be Dick Wolf.

Spot said...

Plus, Detective Munsch has been on The X Files and some other shows.

Spot said...

Don't forget St. Elsewhere. So the entire universe is all in the mind of an autistic child.

Spot said...

Of the crossover, SVU rated the highest...another show that refuses to die.

Spot said...

Selfie meanwhile has been pulled for Shark Tank repeats and specials.

Spot said...

So there are 375 shows in this universe...it's like the ending of the Horton Hears a Who movie where there's a different universe on every speck. For all we know, we might be in a TV show right now.

Spot said...

No. But Low & Order: Cyber spinoff will.

Spot said...

Well, so much about "The Let it Ride Era" and "some-other-era is dead" dumb theories. Selfie, and Mulaney few days ago, clearly showed futility of looking for patterns where there aren't any. There's always some threshold bellow which network can't put up with low ratings anymore.

At a risk of falling in the same trap of a search for phantom patterns... I think threshold is somehow connected with make-goods. Like, when ratings are dangerously close to 50% of upfront rating guarantees - then network decides make-goods (generated by low ratings of a flop show) are too much eating into their inventory reserved for scatter market, for it to be tolerated.

Spot said...

We are. It's called Cult, and it airs on The CW, and it's pretty bad. Who am I kidding, that Cult show we are in, is god awful.

Spot said...

SVU grew from the Voice with Adults 18-34 too!

Spot said...

TAR really should have been held for summer post Big Brother, I think it would do very high 1s

Spot said...

ABC still did okay. Modern Family hit a 3.2 which I don't think it ever hit this early in a season since Season 1, so it's worrying but it premiered at a 3.8, so it wasn't that bad. Many shows had taken bigger falls from premieres including Scandal, How To Get Away With Murder, and The Big Bang Theory, Once Upon A Time among others. But the rest of the line-up did well. The Middle and The Goldbergs did about as well as you can expect after being on for 6 out of 8 weeks, and going against The Voice. Given that crossovers did so well for NBC, I wonder if ABC would have a Wednesday night crossover event particularly for The Middle, Modern Family and Black-ish (for obvious reasons you can't fit The Goldbergs in). I think that has the potential to tremendously boost the entire Wednesday line-up.

Spot said...

I think CBS after being so stable for quite a lot of years, in the past 2 to 3 years, faced the problem of many of their viewers in the late 40s have turned 50 and thus went out of the 18-49 demographic. I think in total viewers they are still quite dominant, so that's what I think was happening, that their audience simply grew older and out of the demo.

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