Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 12/3/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The second half of the CW's The Flash / Arrow crossover was the more explosive one, as Arrow (1.4) vaulted to a new series high (and up by a whooping half point vs. its last episode). This is the rating that normal episodes of The Flash have been getting, which is huge.

• NBC was stronger than usual with specials Christmas in Rockefeller Center (1.9) and Saturday Night Live Christmas (1.9). However, both of these specials declined considerably from last year (when they hit 2.3/2.6 respectively).

• These NBC specials may have contributed to a great deal of ugliness elsewhere; after all, ABC also had a very bad night on this same Wednesday last year. But it was at least as poor again this time, with The Middle (1.6), The Goldbergs (1.7), Modern Family (2.8) and Black-ish (2.1) all at least 10% below their previous season lows. CBS was also soft with two hours of Survivor (2.1/2.0) and Stalker (1.5) failing to bounce back from their Thanksgiving Eve ratings. And Fox's Hell's Kitchen (1.2) and Red Band Society (0.9) were also on the low end (though at least above the Thanksgiving Eve deliveries).

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/26/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• Always an interesting lesson in how different shows react to viewing depressions, this Thanksgiving Eve saw CBS' Survivor (2.1) take a three tenth week-to-week drop, while Criminal Minds (2.2) and Stalker (1.6) were very close to even. As usual, younger-skewing Fox was hit much harder; Hell's Kitchen (1.1) and Red Band Society (0.7) each lost over 20% week-to-week.

• Usually a Thanksgiving Day tradition, ABC's A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving (2.1) was much improved year-to-year on the higher-viewed Thanksgiving Eve, and it helped boost repeats of Modern Family (1.5) and Black-ish (1.2) to well above last year's repeats. The CW's movie Planes, Trains and Automobiles (0.6) also grew a tenth year-to-year, but NBC's preview special for Peter Pan Live! (0.6) went well behind a similar special for The Sound of Music Live! last year (1.0).

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/12/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Modern Family (3.2) went up a tenth in finals, though this was still a new season low by two tenths. For the third straight week, The 100 (0.5) failed to hang onto its preliminary.

• NBC took over the Wednesday primetime lead with a very strong finish to its Dick Wolf crossover. It started with a special hour of The Voice (2.5) matching the 2.5 for its special Thursday ep last year. That led into the two-hour drama event, which just about matched The Voice's delivery; there were massive spikes for Law and Order: SVU (2.4) and Chicago PD (2.2). Both shows went multiple tenths above their previous season highs this season, and PD tied its 2.2 series high from last season.

• Against a stronger NBC (but a weaker ABC with the CMA Awards gone), it was a weirdly mixed bag on pretty much every other network:
• ABC saw Modern Family (3.1) take a sizable hit, going well below any previous result this season, while The Goldbergs (2.1) also hit a season low, but the rest of the lineup was fairly normal;
• On CBS, Survivor (2.3) was even against The Voice and Criminal Minds (2.3) bounced back to about normal after last week's stinker against the CMAs, but Stalker (1.4) hit another new low;
• Fox's Hell's Kitchen (1.5) continued a very good week for Gordon Ramsay by rising to tie a season high, which is pretty strong given the added unscripted competition. But this was of no help to Red Band Society (0.9);
• And Arrow (0.9) fell back to earth, ending its run of three straight upticks, but The 100 posted a third straight preliminary 0.6 and will hope this one holds in finals.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 11/5/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: While The 100 couldn't hold its 0.6, there was some very good news for the CDub: Arrow upticked to a new season high 1.1, putting it ahead of the year-ago episode. The blow to Chicago PD (1.4) was also softened somewhat, though it still marked a new season low.

• ABC took its lineup off for the always potent CMA Awards (4.5). It was pretty close to last year's 4.7 final.

• Despite the added ABC competition, most shows were close to even, including the return of Hell's Kitchen (1.3) and Red Band Society (0.9) after a World Series hiatus. The notable exceptions: CBS' crime dramas Criminal Minds (2.1) and Stalker (1.5) each dipped to new lows, and NBC's Chicago PD (1.3) had a real stinker of an outing on an otherwise steady NBC. The 100 posted a second straight preliminary uptick to 0.6 and will hope to hold onto this one in finals.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/8/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: Arrow (1.0) didn't get any help, but ABC had another big night in finals. Modern Family (3.6) was up 0.2 and the other three comedies all gained 0.1, putting Black-ish (2.9) at a stout three tenths above last week. This put the three-hour ABC lineup ever-so-slightly ahead of the same night last year. FX's American Horror Story premiered at a new series high 3.11, six hundredths above last year's 3.05 premiere.

• If week three was the night that doomed Super Fun Night last year, it may go down as the night that validated Black-ish (2.8) this year. The series was up two tenths (maybe more after finals) even as its Modern Family lead-in (3.4) declined slightly. It now seems like a pretty solid bet to be ABC's strongest ModFam lead-out yet. ABC was steady in the 8/7c hour with The Middle (2.0) and The Goldbergs (2.2) and at 10/9c with Nashville (1.5) (which is actually now running close to even year-to-year).

• Elsewhere in newbie land, Stalker (1.7) was down a typical 15%, putting it in the same area as CBS' Monday and Tuesday 10:00 options. Considering its Criminal Minds lead-in (2.3) was also down the same amount, it's not really that terrible, though not particularly promising either. And The Mysteries of Laura (1.3) and Red Band Society (0.9) each slipped noticeably in their fourth episodes after being steady in their third.

• And the CW welcomed back Arrow (1.0) at a tenth above last season's premiere/finale, but a couple tenths behind last season's high point. There doesn't seem to have been a ton of heat here from the CW's enormous The Flash premiere a night earlier, but it may have been worth a tenth or so. Considering how the majority has fared at The Question this year, expect upward adjustments! Speaking of The Flash, it had a decent premiere encore rating at 9/8c (0.6).

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/1/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC got its usual finals help, bringing all the returning comedies' drops into the single digits and Black-ish (2.6) to a slightly more reasonable -21%. Even Nashville (1.6) got a bump, surprisingly inching it ahead of a downward-adjusting Chicago PD (1.5). The Mysteries of Laura (1.5) was up to tie last week's timeslot premiere (as well as PD). This feels more like bad news for PD than good for Laura, but we'll see how things develop.

• Despite a very solid return from Criminal Minds (2.7, down just a tenth year-to-year), CBS' Stalker (2.0) had a modest start at 10/9c against little competition. The worst-reviewed show of the season now must hold up extremely well to be an improvement on last year's occupant CSI. At this point, it seems more likely that we'll soon be wondering what drama replaces it at midseason. And after a big premiere last week, Survivor (2.4) fell but was still on last year's week two pace.

• ABC's comedy lineup (at least preliminarily) dropped across the board in week two. The returnees The Middle (1.9), The Goldbergs (2.2) and Modern Family (3.5) were all down about 10% while Black-ish (2.5) was down close to 25%, keeping it right on par with the Super Fun Night track. But we'll see what bounty awaits the network in finals adjustments! Nashville (1.5) was even.

• NBC's crime dramas Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.6) each took double-digit dips against the return of CBS dramas, while The Mysteries of Laura (1.4) held a bit better.

• Fox leveled off with Hell's Kitchen (1.4) and Red Band Society (1.1).

First Two Weeks, Red Band Society

WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.3
Lead-in: Hell's Kitchen (1.4 overall, 1.5 at 8:30)
Competition: Modern Family (R) (1.3/1.5), Criminal Minds (R) (1.0), America's Got Talent (2.6 at 9:00, 2.7 at 9:30), The 100 (R) (0.2). Total: 5.25.

Spotted Ratings, Premiere Wednesday 9/24/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC saw upward adjustments in the first 90 minutes, making Modern Family (3.9) now look like a pretty solid win at just 7% behind last year's premiere. Red Band Society (1.1) also mercifully got a tenth back.

• Despite uninspiring starts from ABC's longtime Wednesday tentpoles, the new kids on Wednesday looked quite promising. Black-ish (3.3) was down only about 10% from its Modern Family lead-in (3.7) and had virtually full retention in total viewership, making it probably the most impressive post-ModFam premiere yet. And The Goldbergs (2.3) ticked up from a surprisingly modest The Middle (2.1) in first new episode on Wednesday. Add in a 25% year-to-year dip for Nashville (1.5) and ABC was still down 16% from last year's premiere Wednesday. But don't blame it on The Goldbergs and Black-ish.

• NBC's tri-crime drama night got off to a decent start with The Mysteries of Laura (1.5) dropping a predictable 25% from its post-America's Got Talent preview, and Law and Order: SVU (2.1) and Chicago PD (1.9) scoring well. But since SVU had a stunningly high 2.6 two-hour premiere last year, NBC was still down 23% from last year's opening Wednesday. And these shows have tended to spike when CBS is out of the crime drama business, so let's see what happens when Criminal Minds and Stalker join the mix.

• CBS had a very good night with the 90-minute return of Survivor (2.7) and the 90-minute finale of Big Brother (2.6), each up a tenth from when CBS did this arrangement last year (it was on pre-premiere Wednesday, but vs. much more unscripted competition). This combo was 9% above CBS' premiere of its regular Wednesday lineup last season.

• And Fox had another very brutal night as Hell's Kitchen (1.3) inched down again and Red Band Society (1.0) dropped 23% in week two. This was 55% behind two hours of cancelled The X Factor last year...

• The big four preliminarily combined to go 21% behind premiere Wednesday last year.

SpotVault - Red Band Society (Fox) - 2014-15 Ratings

Red Band Society

Wednesdays, 9/8c, Fox

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/17/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was good news/bad news for the first two new drama premieres of the season. Start with the good: The Mysteries of Laura (2.0) actually almost matched the two-hour finale delivery for America's Got Talent (2.3), though Talent was up to 2.7 in the 9:30 half-hour. I wish I had adjusted my morning The Question line after seeing how well Talent did on Tuesday, but this seems like a pretty solid showing even given that context. Most of these post-Got Talent previews have dropped 25%+ the next week, but Laura has given itself a chance to withstand that and still be in the mix.

• Meanwhile, Fox's Red Band Society (1.3) attracted very little interest, down a tenth from its Hell's Kitchen lead-in (1.4). We still don't know quite how much more carnage is to come on Fox's schedule, especially from Tuesday thru Friday, but this is not good as much more competition will come next week.

• Without an irregularity in the 9/8c hour, Extant (1.1) rallied for its likely series finale. This was its biggest rating since July, though almost all of the ratings since July were 1.0.

The Question, Wednesday 9/17/14: Will Viewers Band Together for Laura or Red Band Society?

The first two new dramas of the broadcast fall season premiere tonight. NBC previews procedural The Mysteries of Laura after the finale of America's Got Talent, while Fox will try to recapture the spirit of Glee with teen drama Red Band Society. Neither show exactly feels like a huge out-of-the-box hit in the making, so tonight's pre-premiere Wednesday is key. The Mysteries of Laura gets a far better lead-in than it should ever see from local programming, while Red Band has no original scripted competition in an hour that will soon be overstuffed with it. It's another one of those nights that's not about which network beats the other one; it's about whether either network feels good about itself. Will viewers band together for Laura or Red Band Society? That's The Question for Wednesday, September 17, 2014.

Fall 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Wednesday 9/8c

Best Case/Worst Case moves to the Wednesday 9/8c hour. Five years ago, ABC and Fox each had huge newbie successes here (Modern Family and Glee, respectively) opposite NBC/CBS procedurals. They'll each try it again in 2014 with similar-themed shows.