Thursday, December 4, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 12/3/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The second half of the CW's The Flash / Arrow crossover was the more explosive one, as Arrow (1.4) vaulted to a new series high (and up by a whooping half point vs. its last episode). This is the rating that normal episodes of The Flash have been getting, which is huge.
  • NBC was stronger than usual with specials Christmas in Rockefeller Center (1.9) and Saturday Night Live Christmas (1.9). However, both of these specials declined considerably from last year (when they hit 2.3/2.6 respectively).
  • These NBC specials may have contributed to a great deal of ugliness elsewhere; after all, ABC also had a very bad night on this same Wednesday last year. But it was at least as poor again this time, with The Middle (1.6), The Goldbergs (1.7), Modern Family (2.8) and Black-ish (2.1) all at least 10% below their previous season lows. CBS was also soft with two hours of Survivor (2.1/2.0) and Stalker (1.5) failing to bounce back from their Thanksgiving Eve ratings. And Fox's Hell's Kitchen (1.2) and Red Band Society (0.9) were also on the low end (though at least above the Thanksgiving Eve deliveries).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 1.6 29% -27%-0.6n/a 8/8 -16% -27% -16% 1.7
The Goldbergs 1.7 33% -29%-0.7-0.6 8/8 +21% -19% +21% 1.8
Modern Family 2.8 39% -24%-0.9-0.7 9/9 -13% +87% -13% 2.8
Black-ish 2.1 39% -19%-0.5-0.9 9/9 n/a +75% +31% 1.8
Nashville 1.3 31% -13%-0.2-0.5 8/9 -19% +100% -16% 1.4
ABC:+30%-4%
Survivor 2.1 31% +0%+0.0n/a 10/11 -19% -3% -2% 2.1
Stalker 1.5 25% -6%-0.1-0.1 8/10 n/a -6% +0% 1.6
CBS:-4%-2%
Christmas in Rockefeller Center 1.9 25% -17% +245% -16% 1.9
Saturday Night Live Christmas 1.9 39% -27% +62% -28% 2.0
NBC:+97%-24%
Hell's Kitchen 1.2 42% +9%+0.1n/a 10/12 n/a +9% -11% 1.3
Red Band Society 0.9 38% +29%+0.2+0.1 5/10 n/a +29% -40% 1.1
Fox:+17%-26%
Arrow 1.4 45% +56%+0.5n/a 1/8 +17% +133% +17% 1.4
The 100 0.6 41% +0%+0.0+0.5 1/6 n/a +9% +0% 0.5
CW:+74%+11%
Big5:+32%-11%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

39 comments:

Spot said...

So a lot of Middle's audience are Flash fans? Who knew? ;)

But that's still pretty bad for ABC. Hope for a rebound next week.

Spot said...

I'm inclined to think ABC lost audience to NBC specials yesterday.

Spot said...

Notice the wink face after that sentence. I definitely think it was the NBC specials, since this happened last year. I was just trying to have fun.

Spot said...

Sorry, didn't notice it.

Spot said...

I know I roll my eyes when I read this same comment all the time on that "other" ratings website but I recklessly assumed ABC's Wednesday lineup was all repeats so I didn't watch. Not a Flash or Arrow fan but did watch The 100 live (vs my usual streaming of it later). Just haven't been watching too much boob tube for the past week or so. The major holidays throw a wrench into my regular viewing habits.

Spot said...

Incredible for arrow, so happy for it!

Spot said...

I didn't remember last year also being an ugly night for ABC but Spot says it was. So I think ABC should probably consider not bringing back the block in December at all and just save originals for March and April.

Spot said...

The 100 wasn't helped much by Arrow surge, and that's not a new thing. Already last spring I noticed The 100 ratings trend is rather independent of Arrow. Meaning, sometimes Arrow went up, and The 100 actually went down. While when Arrow was down, or in repeats, it almost never hurt The 100. That's strange, because in theory this two shows should be rather compatible.

The CW was able to successfully launch 2 male oriented superhero shows, but Pedowitz wasn't able to find companions for those. So far, at least. The 100 is benefiting from the fact it's the least bad rated out of underwhelming group of their non-superhero male oriented shows: The Tomorrow People was low rated, Cult was awful rated, and The Messengers... judging by the fact they pushed it to midseason (as opposed to paired with The Flash or Arrow in fall), The CW will be completely satisfied if it surpasses Cult ratings.

However, I think The 100 run out of luck. There's no doubt The CW will try to launch promising rookie out of The Flash next fall. But that means they have to find room for Supernatural somewhere (and it just might be Wed 9 PM, but it also could be Mon 9 PM), plus for at least one more rookie - which also could be Wed 9 PM (if male oriented) or Mon 9 PM (if female oriented, which is at first sight good for The 100, but no, it likely pushes Supernatural to Wed 9 PM). So I can see only two possibilites for The 100: either cancelled, either 13 episodes midseason spackle order.

Spot said...

The NBC specials were nothing special in the ratings department, only cracking 2 from 8:30 to 10 but obviously more potent than Mysterious Laura and Badly Rated Judge.

Spot said...

I think ABC should consider optioning a variation of the split-scheduling for its Wednesday comedy block. Have 3 straight-through runs of September-November (9 episodes), January-February (8 episodes), and April-May (7 episodes). It avoids the Christmas specials that are more family-oriented and thus are more likely to ding, them and minimizes dealing with DST in the Spring.

Survivor/Stalker is a much less compatible pairing than Criminal Minds/Stalker, so only dropping a tenth w2w isn't that bad. And I realize that the Survivor double-pump comes from needing to wrap up the season before the end of the year, but they should have pushed it one week to give Criminal Minds an airing away from SVU.

Spot said...

Fridays next season could be interesting. Assuming that this is the final season of Hart of Dixie, The CW has a choice to make for the night's direction: does it lean neutral/male with Whose Line is it Anyway and The 100 (going the midseason spackle route as you are suggesting) or female with Jane the Virgin and/or Reign? The latter has a built in advantage as America's Next Top Model will still be on the night and thus keep the night's flow essentially the same. Plus there's the CBS Studios connection. But The CW could aim a little higher with The 100.

There's also the summer-only route option for The 100. It did pretty well going into June and accomplishes Pedowitz's talk of figuring out a way to program year-round.

Spot said...

They have the CMA Awards already messing that idea up for November. Their comedies repeat well and continually bounce back after bad days like this (or The Middle's blip against Game 7 of World Series). I mean in season 4 Modern Family actually jumped from a 3.2 to a 4.2 between March 28th and April 4th of 2013. Unlike serial dramas where missing a week will mess eveything up, also 4 of these comedies are all self contained in their episodes (The Goldbergs isn't even consistant on which year it is between episodes). So basically, not a bad idea, but I think unneccesarry at least right now. I think next week with no Rockerfeller, Flash infused Arrow, second hour of Survivor, and SNL, they will all bounce back and it will be like this week never happened

Spot said...

I think chances for The 100 getting 22 episodes are zero. And chances for it to be on next fall CW schedule close to zero.

But I agree with you about its chances for getting 13 to 16 episodes order (in some other capacity) being not so bleak. In fact, probably are at least 51% at this moment. They might even not say why are they ordering one more season, and just play by the ear: Plan A to be it airs on Friday in midseason. But if they would have extremely bad fall, then it goes to a weekday in midseason. And if they would would have extremely bad fall, then it's pushed to late spring/summer.

Spot said...

Last year the comedy lineup saw a 1.9, 1.4, 3.2, and 1.6 on this night. This was compared to a 2.3, 1.6, 3.4, 1.8 of the week before. So no, they weren't hit as badly, but they were dinged

Spot said...

Damn it ABC! This is not okay! Those drops are absolutely crazy. The Goldbergs almost lost 30% of its audience! The Plus difference between these episodes and the last is crazy. For instance, the last episode of The Middle would classify it as a HIT and this episode is a Marginal! Last episode of Blackish would be a BIG HIT and this episode merely a solid.

Spot said...

I'm not a Survivor fan, so I'm not in the loop. Why did Survivor need a 2 hour episode? It started on time in premiere week and aired a new episode on Thanksgiving Eve (as opposed to a clips episode). So why does it need a 2 hour (which apparantly was just 2 1 hours back to back) randomly in December?

Spot said...

In 2008, Christmas in Rockefeller Center got a 2.0 (leading into a 2.2 Bionic Woman!). In 2014, Christmas in Rockefeller Center for a 1.9 (leading into a 1.9 SNL special). This special was become more valuable over time!

Spot said...

Spot, can we have a Peter Pan Live! question?

Spot said...

Spot, can we not?
Those specials are so volatile, and guessing O/U correctly is pure luck.

Spot said...

I agree, if anything I would prefer a Taste question than a Peter Pan question

Spot said...

Last season, Survivor started in pre-season week (also leading into the BB finale, as this year, just a week earlier). Therefore, since it will end on the same week this time around, it stands to reason it would need to fit in an extra hour somewhere. But I am not watching this season so I am also not in the loop, just my guess.

Spot said...

100% agree with the split scheduling thing. It would also likely benefit whatever drama they put at 10pm, especially if it is a serialized one.

Spot said...

A fun fact is that Whose Line and the 100 actually have the exact same % of male skew, 52%.

Spot said...

Given these last two years, it might be a good week if ABC *was* in reruns against the NBC specials...

Spot said...

Good point, I forgot about that. Then simply move one of the Fall episodes into the Spring. It actually makes it into neater thirds.


Or start whispering that the CMA Awards should be on Tuesdays to the producers. :-)

Spot said...

The post-Game Questions are about programs that have the possibility of continuing upside to the network (see: Grey's Anatomy, Undercover Boss). These type of events are one-offs that aren't as meaningful in ratings as much as they are in other macro terms, specifically how the broadcast networks can continue to fight the ongoing audience erosion.


I say that even though I'm going to post an Unofficial Question for you in your original comment.

Spot said...

We clearly aren't getting a Peter Pan Live Question (thank goodness), but here's one for ya and anyone else.

After the unqualified ratings success of The Sound of Music Live! last year, NBC is going to try making an annual event out of live stage shows. This year, it's Peter Pan turn. Will Peter Pan Fly High for NBC? That's the Unofficial Question for December 4, 2014.

Information
The Making of The Sound of Music Live! (11/27/13): 1.0
The Making of Peter Pan Live! (11/26/14): 0.6 (-40%)
The Sound of Music Live! (12/5/13): 4.6

Pan has a marginal benefit this time around than Music: while CBS will be full-force with its comedy block and Elementary, ABC and Fox will essentially be off the map (sort of how NBC has been this whole season on Thursdays) since the former's TGIT is on hiatus while Gracepoint can't even whiff at Glee's low-1's level.

But Music had more pluses for it. First, the cast; you had a big name in Carrie Underwood that brought a significant part of her country music fan base to the night. And the concept was so out-of-the-box considering how long it'd been since a live performance on this scale was attempted. You'd have to go back to Fail Safe's CBS performance in April 2000 to find the best comparable example (correct me if I'm overlooking another show). Pan could face a been-there, done-that vibe. And Alison Williams (Girls) isn't a Name like Underwood. Sure there's Christopher Walken, but he's not the star of the production. Plus my gut just feels Peter Pan isn't as popular as The Sound of Music in pop culture..

So. You could just look at the 40% decline between The Making Of... specials and use that as the line to get 2.76, which is almost round enough to use itself. But you have to factor that Pan will have an easier time of it since all the nets are weaker and the possibility that people will hate-watch or tune-in for the hopes of a Spiderman: Turn Off the Dark scenario where the flying stunts go bananas. Pan is less likely to reach Music's level, but NBC's got to hope that it'll at least triple their original series' average (currently a 1.2). I think it'll fall short, but not by a whole lot based on the number I'm semi pulling out of my ass for this.

Peter Pan Live! Unofficial Over/Under: 3.35

Spot said...

Will ABC Have a Bad Taste In Its Mouth? That's the (Second) Unofficial Question for December 4, 2014.

The Taste
Season 1 premiere (1/22/13): 2.1
Season 1 average: 1.6
Season 2 premiere (1.2/14): 1.3 (-47.1%)
Season 2 average: 1.06 (-40.6%)


The difference between seasons 1 and 2 are very pronounced but also deceiving: season 2 had all 2-hour episodes while only the series premiere did in season 1. And the show shifted from Tuesdays to Thursdays. Finally, The Taste trended better on an episode basis as the season went on. How much of that was due to the extended length (reality shows gain more ground in the second hour as The Voice, Dancing with the Stars, and Celebrity Apprentice can attest to), though, is an unknown to me.


The Taste will face CBS' sitcoms as usual, but they aren't as potent this time around. But, of course, there's Peter Pan Live!. Having to face a show that basically demands no DVR-watching is a huge negative and means that overall Taste will have a bigger uphill climb. ABC's going to see Once Upon a Time in Wonderland-esque numbers again, but as far as the network's filler programming goes, it'll fit right in.



The Taste Unofficial Over/Under: 1.05

Spot said...

Slightly over at 1.2 or 1.3

Spot said...

Over at around 3.5, give or take a tenth.

Spot said...

Slightly Over. CBS isn't full force, as Big Bang Theory is in repeats. This can create a ripple effect as some people who would have watched an original will watch the performance and might not switch over for say Mom

Spot said...

ABC has been promoting this life crazy. So far I have seen commercials for it with AFV, Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Toy Story That Time Forgot, Charlie Brown, Agents of Shield, Forever, The Middle, The Goldbergs, Modern Family, and Blackish (I watch a lot of ABC). That being said, I saw a ton of promotion for the ABC comedy block and it was down like crazy. Anyways, slightly over again.

Spot said...

Now, a Peter Pan/Taste crossover smackdown event I would pay to watch as the Taste judges throw food projectiles at a flying Peter Pan trying to knock her face down onto the buffet table. I think I'll just get caught up in a good book tonight.

Spot said...

Over. Peter Pan will be no Sound of Music if the Nielsens of the respective preview shows are any guide.

Spot said...

Under. The hate-watching is definitely a possibility, but I think that ultimately The Sound of Music was huge because it was Event Television, something NBC had whiffed at spectacularly before (Million Second Quiz needed a complete rules overhaul and/or a preview bout in SNF halftime, preferably both). Can you pull that off twice? I don't think you can.

Spot said...

How many shows ever have fallen two categories between episodes? Just to give you an idea of how high the bar is for that, Agents of SHIELD didn't do this in its first two episodes! (Episode 1 was obviously in megahit territory, the 3.3 the next week was comfortably in big hit land.)

Spot said...

Family Guy went from Mega Hit (263) for the premiere to a Solid (112) in episode 2. That was a football/crossover related event, but still a big drop. The Simpsons two seasons ago went from a Marginal (81) from a Presidential address messed up episode to a Mega Hit (200) after the Wildcard Game its next original. Again, Football

Spot said...

Under. I forgot about my Bad News Bears playing Dallas tonight. The game is preempting CBS programming in both Chicago and Dallas so CBS could see some particularly heinous final adjustments tomorrow. The game could also siphon viewers away from Peter Pan and The Taste (and whatever frivolity is playing on FOX) in both of these big central time zone markets. I imagine.

Spot said...

Thanks for the unofficial question, you're getting quite good at these! Over, at 1.1!

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