Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 12/16/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: NCIS (2.4) avoided its season low with a finals uptick, while The Voice (3.3) was also up, taking its y2y decline to just 18%.
  • NBC's two-hour finale of The Voice (3.2) was the series' best rating since early November, but it was down 20% vs. last year's fall finale. Considering how poorly the series fared in the closing weeks of the season, going -15%/-20% on the last two nights isn't really that terrible/unexpected. But this season seems to have confirmed the notion that the series is on the downturn.
  • CBS tried throwing originals at NBC's finale, and it went about as badly as the last time the shows had major NBC competition (when The Voice was two hours on November 11). NCIS (2.3) and Person of Interest (1.3) each tied their season lows from that night, and they sandwiched a new one for NCIS: New Orleans (1.9).
  • In the 8:00 hour, ABC's A Charlie Brown Christmas (1.7) tied the finale of MasterChef Junior (1.7) for second. NBC brought up the rear, not getting much out of a new Elf special (1.3).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
A Charlie Brown Christmas (R) 1.8 36% +6% +71% +125% 1.9
Prep and Landing 1.3 39% +44% -28% +44% 1.2
Prep and Landing: Naughty vs. Nice 1.2 42% +33% -29% +71% 1.3
Forever (R) 0.7 29% -33% +0% 1.0
ABC:-3%+63%
NCIS 2.4 17% -4%-0.1n/a 8/10 -17% -14% -17% 2.4
NCIS: New Orleans 1.9 17% -17%-0.4-0.1 10/10 n/a +12% -21% 1.7
Person of Interest 1.3 18% -24%-0.4-0.4 9/10 -35% -62% -35% 1.4
CBS:-29%-23%
Elf: Buddy's Musical Christmas 1.3 34% n/a -43% -35% 1.4
The Voice Tue 3.3 33% +43%+1.0n/a 4/14 -18% +222% -18% 3.1
NBC:+82%-21%
MasterChef Junior 1.7 38% +6%+0.1n/a 3/7 +13% +6% +100% 1.8
New Girl (R) 0.8 46% -47% +14% 0.8
The Mindy Project (R) 0.6 46% -45% +0% 0.8
Fox:-17%+60%
The Flash (R) 0.5 36% -68% +67% 0.6
Victoria's Secret Fashion Show (R) 0.4 41% -60% +0% 0.4
CW:-65%+29%
Big5:-8%-3%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

49 comments:

Spot said...

NCIS: NO and Person of Interest don't normally compete against the Voice, so they have an excuse, but what's with NCIS? That 1.3 for Elf is half of the lower end Voice results have been doing. Is having FOX and ABC merely league average and not sub 1 so much competition?
.
With that 1.3 from Elf, NBC might as well have either aired it after The Voice. Or not aired it at all. Given Chicago Fire a nice lead in.

Spot said...

The Voice is only a tenth below last cycles finale and it'll probably adjust up.

Great ending to a terrible season. NBC really should have benched the show this fall after how far it had fallen last year.

They could have relaunched the Voice February 2nd and hoped the Super Bowl promotion could bring the magic back to the show.

Spot said...

It's further down from the fall finale last year, which is a better comparison as it didn't have to face Dancing this year

Spot said...

That is true, but looking at the TV landscape most shows seem to be performing closer to their Spring averages than their fall averages.

Overall though, as I said above NBC should have held this cycle of the Voice until February 2nd.

They could have pushed AGT to the fall to fill the 3 hours vacated by the Voice on the schedule.

Spot said...

No. They had no choice, because NBC has no other good lead-ins.
Calculated risk of airing too much of The Voice was justified.
What was not, is their awful choice of the shows leading out of The Voice. Except The Blacklist, of course.

Spot said...

Yeah, hold their highest-rated show until midseason giving their new shows an even weaker chance of survival...k.

Spot said...

As I said in another post they could have shifted AGT to the fall to fill the Voice's Monday and Tuesday time slot.
The Blacklist isn't lead-in dependant so it would have been fine with the 2.5-3.0 lead in from AGT, and the Tuesday comedies would have flopped either way.

Spot said...

Greenblatt is probably the luckiest network chairman, he inherited a hit he didn't develop and will ride on it until NBC is completely sufocated.


Seriously, I look every year at NBC's pilot development and only Blacklist looked like a show with potential to be a hit, I could add Chicago PD but that wouldn't be totally true since Chicago Fire surprised me and Fire getting canceled would mean no PD.


NBC drama development this year is horrendous, on pair with CBS comedies this season and CBS dramas last year, He also turned their comedy brand toxic to viewers, today, by their own choice, only 3 million people want to watch a NBC comedy.

Spot said...

Yes.

NBC had a terrible development season and it seems most of the shows they put their faith in were losers.

Regardless of that they are harming the long term strength of the network by airing too much of the Voice each season.

I think they would have had a better overall result of they premiered the Voice the day after the Super Bowl and filled the fall hours with AGT.

Spot said...

No, that would be a big mistake. It would weaken their fall much, it would weaken their summer much, and all for minor gains in spring.

No, I didn't meant this season. Each season they picked some losers to lead out of The Voice. Smash, Revolution, Go On, About A Boy,,,

Spot said...

About A Boy and Go On were good shows, but yes u agree.

Anyway, the fall wouldn't be weakened by that much. The Blacklist would likely get the same ratings regardless of lead-in, and the Tuesday comedies would flop as well.

Summers already had Ninja Warrior, Last Comic, and Game Night. If those 3 shows received the same amount of promotion AGT got they could have been strong enough to support NBC last summer.

AGT of course is not the Voice but it's the only reality franchise NBC has that can still hit a 3.0. Uf it received the same amount of promotion NBC gives the Voice it would have been a decent performer in the fall.

Spot said...

So, The CW brass have forgotten they need to make midseason schedule?
Probably too busy high-fiving each other for The Flash success?

I mean, all they did during last 2 months Is:
- renewed Penn & Teller
- made peculiar Hart of Dixie schedule

Do they come to work at all?

Spot said...

I really don't understand why CBS does this. Why not air the repeats and specials on this night rather than two weeks of preemptions and then random episodes for the fall finales up against the voice finale? Makes zero sense.


FOX did well. New Girl actually repeated quite decently I think.

Spot said...

Well, it had a 1.7 lead in. That helped

Spot said...

NBC confirmed January 29th is the finale of the Biggest Loser. No clue what is airing at 8 on Februrary 5th? A recap I'm guessing, but it seems a waste not to funnel anything TBL has left into The Blacklist for the finale

Spot said...

Perhaps it'll be the Blacklist episode that airs post-Super Bowl instead of a series-so-far type of recap.

Spot said...

Not every summer show can seamlessly move into the regular season. And NBC would rather keep America's Got Talent as the big fish in the smaller summer pond than potentially damage it with a regular season run a la So You Think You Can Dance.

Spot said...

I think Deadline said it'll be a repeat of the Super Bowl episode.

Spot said...

That is a good analogy.


Personally I think AGT would be fine in the fall. It's yearly averages have been stronger than DWTS 2 years in a row.


It's the type of show that is similar enough to the Voice and IDOL where I think it's audience would show up even in the fall.

Spot said...

I think it's been confirmed that it's the post super bowl episode again. I think it makes sense especially since it will be a two part.

Spot said...

True

Spot said...

I wonder if there will ever come a day when DWTS beats The Voice in terms of seasonal averages. If they both stay on their current paths, it might just take 3-4 seasons.

Spot said...

America's Got Talent has another huge advantage: it faces essentially nothing in the summer other than the occasional Big Brother episode. Bringing it into the Fall would throw it against Dancing with the Stars, Scorpion, Gotham, and MNF on Mondays alone while Tuesdays would include NCIS, The Flash, and Masterchef Junior. I suspect AGT would not hold up well against that kind of competition.

Spot said...

Which isn't the world's best lead in, but it may be better than The Slap!

Spot said...

If they aren't demoting Reign or Jane, they only really need to announce what replaces the 100. Which won't be for a couple months. They may hold off until New Year (watch as they release it today with both shows moved just to prove me wrong)

Spot said...

I would be shocked if it ain't The Messengers that replaces The 100.

You think hey might put iZombie to Friday? I assumed that's not an option, but simply because they never premiered drama on Friday. But if they really, really dislike iZombie, like really really... why not? There's first time for everything.

If their plan is Beauty and the Beast to take over Fri 8 PM from Hart of Dixie in March, that would be very natural pairing, actually. I mean, both BatB and iZombie are cop procedurals (or most close to it on CW), both are female oriented, both have some speculative fiction elements.

Spot said...

I don't actually think the voice's decline (17%) is that bad for a show that is being overexposed as much as the voice is. It can easily be attributed to a combination of normal decline, some downturn, a bad season talent wise and lackluster new judges. I believe the overall feeling that it is majorly coming from a downturn is exaggerated. But the spring season will show us.

Spot said...

2018-19 ABC Monday: DWTS (1.1 A18-49) into Castle (1.0)
Spot's War of 18-49 Update: Veteran DWTS is still holding slightly above 100 in A18-49+, and I see no reason for ABC to move it elsewhere.
Every season ABC launches new procedurals trying to find replacement for aging Castle. While network was able to successfully launch soapy serialized dramas every season (included but not limited to 6 Shonda's dramas, that from next season will occupy both Thu 8-11 PM, and Sun 8-11 PM), every season those rookie procedurals fail miserable. So, yet again, Castle gets to live another day.

2018-19 NBC summer Tuesday: The Voice (0.8 A18-49) into Harry's Law: Reborn (0.2)
Spot's War of 18-49 Update: The Voice has gone full circle. It started as a summer show 7 years ago, it quickly became NBC's tent-pole, and now it's back to summer. Remarkably, even in its heyday, The Voice was never able to launch lead-out that would last more than two seasons. Notable exception was The Blacklist (show's next season is announced as final), that premiered in now distant 2013-14. Anyway, with those (for summer) good ratings, NBC is bound to order another cycle of The Voice.
While Harry's Law: Reborn 10 millions total viewers average isn't too shabby, there will be no another installment after so awful demo ratings. For what it's worth, the show set new all-time record in old-skewing, at slightly over 97%.

Spot said...

They could put iZombie after Whose Line on Mondays during the summer. Whose Line was doing .5-.7 there last summer, so it isn't the worst place in the world for it.

Spot said...

http://img2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20110706092442/glee/images/7/72/Bless-this-post.jpg

Spot said...

But problem is Reign / Jane ratings are rather low. If those would be 2-3 tenths higher, I'd like your idea much. As it is, I think they must try iZombie during season. I mean, it hardly can do much worse than Jane / Reign, so they gotta try. And if it does so bad after all, they still can pull it, and burn it off in summer.

Spot said...

ABC has renewed the great christmas light fight. That's some filler that's actually doing very well for them. If only they could find something similar for Thursdays for two months...

Spot said...

Ahahah. I was so confused at first with your post. Ahah

Spot said...

iZombie is starting to look more and more like Cult (then again, even Cult had its premiere date announced in early December). I wouldn't be surprised at this point to see it simply dumped on Fridays after Season 3 of Whose Line premieres there. It would be funny since we are all speculating about the virgin and reign and both would keep their slots in that case.

As for the messengers, well, that's a direct replacement of the 100 in my mind, so they don't even have to release a big schedule about it, just say when it is the premiere date.

If they don't announce the schedule until the end of the week, this is probably what will happen I think, otherwise it's super weird.

Spot said...

I think we should legitimately be worried out Person of Interest's future. It had an ugly -31% y2y trend last year, but its average was a 1.97 with its highs and lows being 2.3 and 1.7. It wasn't frontloaded, its average was almost exactly the middle. But here we are with this episode -35% y2y. That's crazy. It's final December episodes have gone 2.8, 2.9, 2.0, 1.3. A 31% drop followed by a 35!

Spot said...

Haha! It's so weird to think that this will be the state of ratings in just a few years. Then again, people probably thought the same thing a few years a go. I've always thought there has to be a bottom to the whole the networks have dug themselves into, but every season I'm proved wrong...

Spot said...

97% old skewing, I can't stop laughing.


This is the future of network TV.

Spot said...

The bottom will be reached when a CW weekday show hits a 0.0 for a original.


Then, there is no room to fall, otherwise, everybody is CW.

Spot said...

Yeah, the blacklist will probably have a lead-in roughly the same size as what 8pm shows get from local programming, at least with its repeat as lead-in (it's possible that the slap does worse than local programming would).

Spot said...

Add to those factors the increased competition this cycle faced from TBBT at the beginning!

I think the Spring cycle will probably do as well as last Spring's cycle. The show is probably only going to be good for a 4.0 premier and a 3ish finale nowadays. Still great for NBC though.

Spot said...

Even football and live sports will be in the 1s in the near future. That will be the end of network TV as we know it.

Spot said...

I don't understand who at NBC thought the Slap would be a good idea for Thursday 8pm SMH.

I'm pretty sure the Emmy winning Hollywood Game Night would do much better Thursday 8pm.

Spot said...

Broadcasters know it. That's why they're changing their business model to cable-like dual-revenue stream (advertising-supported and subscription-supported).

Spot said...

That makes sense.
What is your opinion on CBS's online subscription-based streaming platform? Will people pay $6 a month on content they could watch for free? Is that the future of television?

Spot said...

No, CBS will lose some money on it.

The goal of this and similar platforms is merely to hurt Netflix a bit, because big players are starting to deem streamers as a serious competition.

Spot said...

If that's the case I can't imagine the online model to last long.

It seems most networks are looking for ways to cut costs by ordering less series each season, partnering with international and streaming networks to share the cost of developing new series, and spinoff after spinoff of successful series that will be easy sales in syndication.

Overall nothing will be enough to counter the rapid decline in viewership.

Spot said...

Why wouldn't it last if it accomplishes its goal?
Which is not to make money, but to avert people from paying subscription to Netflix (Amazon, Hulu...). Which, in theory, would slow down (currently steep) rate of their ratings drop. Which equals their income from advertising would drop slower than now, and they might be able to fully compensate those losse with increase of retransmissions fee income (that increase is happening, and it will continue to happen - that part isn't "in theory", it's just matter of how much it will increase in next years),

Spot said...

We'll see. It doesn't seem like the other nets are that interested in doing a online subscription-based program yet. Perhaps they are all doing a wait and see approach with it.

I agree that the increase of retransmissions fees will help the nets gain more profitability in the face of declining ratings.

Spot said...

I think you're too definitive now.
What we know is:
1. Advertising income are very likely gonna keep dropping, as we know broadcast ratings drop each season (unless they'll eventually bottom out as James B hopes for).
2. Amount of transmission fees broadcast networks get from their affiliates will continue to raise.

What we don't know, is which of two trends will prevail. I think you're jumping the gun when assuming trend "2" will prevail.

However, if it does, it will first happen for CBS, because they were first to start aggressively asking higher percentage of fees from their affiliates (MVPDs pay fees to affiliate, then that affiliate and the network share the money according to their particular agreement in that market).

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