Friday, December 5, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 12/4/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: After finals, Mom (2.0) and Two and a Half Men (1.9) ended up noticeably above their Thanksgiving numbers but below what they had been getting after original Big Bang. The McCarthys (1.4) was pretty much back to normal, while Elementary (1.2) was even with Thanksgiving (and thus above the last couple ratings against TGIT and Parenthood). Peter Pan Live! adjusted up to 2.4, making the drop from Sound of Music less than half.
  • NBC's second stab at a live musical event did not capture the national attention to nearly the same degree. Peter Pan LIve! (2.3) managed merely half of last year's The Sound of Music Live! rating and was pretty soundly rejected across the half-hours (starting at 2.7 and ending with a mere 1.8 at 10:30). Though the Carrie Underwood-fueled numbers from last year were always going to be extremely difficult to replicate, I'd guess NBC is at least a bit disappointed here. But this rating is likely still strong enough to keep the tradition alive for now. It looks worse than it is because of how enormous last year's event was.
  • ABC began its two-month TGIT hiatus with a soft start for The Taste (0.9), which only tied the low point from last season and was down nearly a third from last year's 1.3 opener. It may benefit in future weeks from NBC going lower, but this wasn't the start ABC wanted.
  • Elsewhere, Bones (1.5) had a decent uptick with no competition from The Big Bang Theory or Grey's Anatomy. And we'll visit CBS after finals, as the network was heavily inflated by pre-emptions in both of the large Thursday Night Football markets.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Taste 0.9 34% n/an/an/a 1/1 -31% +57% -44% 1.0
How To Get Away With Murder (R) 0.7 31% +17% -76% 1.0
ABC:+43%-59%
The Big Bang Theory (R) 2.1 28% +17% -56% 2.2
Mom 2.0 29% +25%+0.4+0.3 5/6 -5% +25% -17% 1.9
Two and a Half Men 1.9 30% +27%+0.4+0.4 5/6 -17% +27% -10% 1.8
The McCarthys 1.4 29% +27%+0.3+0.4 3/6 n/a +27% -39% 1.4
Elementary 1.2 23% +0%+0.0+0.3 1/6 -33% +4% -31% 1.4
CBS:+18%-35%
Peter Pan Live! 2.4 33% n/a -64% -48% 2.4
NBC:-64%-48%
Bones 1.5 33% +15%+0.2n/a 4/9 -12% -19% +11% 1.6
Gracepoint 0.9 32% +29%+0.2+0.2 2/9 n/a -18% -18% 1.0
Fox:-19%-2%
The Vampire Diaries 0.7 60% -13%-0.1n/a 8/9 -30% +180% -33% 0.7
Reign 0.4 42% +33%+0.1-0.1 3/9 -33% +0% -38% 0.5
CW:+69%-35%
Big5:-37%-41%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

51 comments:

Spot said...

#savetinkerbell
#saveNBCThursday

Sorry, I had to.

Spot said...

The Taste did worse than I expected. ABC might just let the season go right from under its fingers if they don't find a way to correct the performance of the winter fill-ins. CBS has a bid edge since their repeats tend to be very high (and on Thursdays there will barely even be any repeats due to TNF)

Spot said...

I do think NBC chose a weaker event with Peter Pan and didn't try to compensate by trying to cast bigger names in the roles beyond Christopher Walken. But I think the network is hamstrung by not being able to use active, popular stage shows that are playing on Broadway now (Mamma Mia) or just would not translate well (The Book of Mormon, Kinky Boots). I'm stuck on what they could try in future years. Cinderella? Grease? Mary Poppins?

The day that Elementary naturally hits a 1.8 rating, and The McCarthy's a 2.0, is the day I'll eat my non-existent hat. What's really bad about CBS' prelims is that if it weren't a Big Bang Theory repeat lead-in, the numbers for Mom and maybe 2.5 Men are a little more plausible.

As I thought, The Taste basically acted as ABC's summer filler but in the winter. If it acts similarly, then at worst the show should hover around this level. There's a possibility of some ratings growth in later weeks, but I don't know how ABC could have expected better.

Though not mentioned, Reign (0.5) had a bounce back with Scandal out of the picture even as The Vampire Diaries preliminarily lost a tenth between originals. That's bad considering Grey's Anatomy was out of the picture; hopefully the veteran picks up a tenth in finals.

Spot said...

I could see Oklahoma! doing well.

Spot said...

The Music Man has already been selected for next December. Safe, predictable and very appealing to the Mysteries of Laura crowd. I read an interview with NBC president, Robert Greenblatt not too long ago where he was almost giddly with anticipation of all the hate watching and hate tweeting of Peter Pan (similar to what happened for The Sound of Music). Essentially, he summarized that more hate translates into more viewers and that was all that really mattered. So much for NBC's highbrow motives in bringing good live theater to television and paying homage to Broadway. The "live" aspect is the network's gimmicky hook to attract live viewers as their marketing group simultaneously orchestrates and manipulates the "spontaneous" live twitter conversations.

Spot said...

Bob Greenblatt loves musical theatre. I think NBC has programmed cynically under his leadership, but I feel pretty confident that the main reason they're making musicals is because it gets great ratings in the crucial Bob Greenblatt demographic.

Spot said...

I agree about TVD having been expected to rise due to GA's absence. Competition dynamics are curious though. Bones for instance seems to be okay dealing with Grey's Anatomy, but not with Big Bang Theory, although I would think the former would hurt it more.

As for ABC, they can let the season split under their fingers if the winter isn't solid enough for them. Sundays will a bloodbath (sub 1.0 in all three hours?) and if Thursdays are to follow suit, it will be hard to come back from those averages. I mean, CBS repeats will always do better than that and the gap to originals is already pretty thin to begin with.

Spot said...

CBS has scheduled Battle Creek to premiere on Sunday 1 March at 10pm and CSI Cyber on Wednesday 4 March at 10pm.

Spot said...

In case you're wondering what's happening to the shows currently in those slots: CSI wraps up its season in February and Stalker goes on hiatus.

Spot said...

Yes, I know Greenblatt comes from a behind the scenes Broadway background and is an unabashed fan of musical theater.

Spot said...

The Taste is a weak placeholder but Galavant actually looks awesome (much to my total shock) after having watched the half hour "behind the scenes making of" online and on VOD. It could go either way: huge hit or huge bust with viewers.

Spot said...

I think this had something to do with the double Survivor on Wednesday. They didn't want to waste another Criminal Minds lead in on Stalker, they are saving it for CSI: Cyber. Same goes for the fact that the Mentalist finale leading into it. I found it interesting that Criminal Minds with 24 episodes was only scheduled to be the lead in for Stalker for 20 of the episodes. I would get if it was 22 to 24 because Minds always does a 2 part finale (sometimes its split into two weeks), but 4 episodes difference made no sense. I was actually wondering if they were going to have the last 4 episodes of Minds lead into Battle Creek to try to give it some exposure before summer. Looks like I was wrong!

Spot said...

I watched a lot of ABC this week (AFV, Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Toy Story, Charlie Brown, Agents of Shield. Forever, The Middle, Goldbergs, Modern Family, and Blackish) and I saw ads for it during EVERY show I just listed. I was well promoted, people were just not interested. It has 2 more weeks of limited competition, but then it hits low HUT Christmas and New Years, followed by Idol which hurt it badly last year.
I think ABC was waiting to see how the Taste would do for the premiere to see if they wanted to pair Off The Boat with it, and it looks like it would be killing the show before it premieres now.

Spot said...

Personally speaking, I am excited for the show, I think it looks pretty cool. Ratings wise, I keep thinking about the quest...

Spot said...

I've seen people on other sites commenting that ABC is promoting FOTB very aggressively for a show that they haven't even scheduled yet. That makes me believe the show is higher on their priority list than we might think. I believe it will end up on Mondays between DWTS and Castle.

Spot said...

It's near impossible to predict how any new show will resonate with a broad mass audience. Speaking of The Quest, did you know that a very, very tiny but vocal minority of passionate fans of the show are still petitioning ABC to bring it back. Props to the Dungeons and Dragons crowd for their tenacity, I guess.

Spot said...

This just in; this will be CBS comedy schedule starting the 26th of February:
8:00 TBBT
8:30 The Odd Couple
9:00 TBBT repeat
9:30 MOM

Spot said...

I really didn't expect them to regularly schedule a repeat for those many months, even being tbbt.


And why are they rushing through men (airing it on thanksgiving eve?!) just to replace it with repeats? I think CBS has lost it

Spot said...

CBS has completely lost it.
The network is run by networks. I think there was a swap of scheduling head departments between ABC and CBS because honestly, ABC's scheduling has been mostly on point so far while CBS is CRAZY.

Spot said...

I agree 100% with that.

Spot said...

So 2.5 Men's just 13 episodes? What? Mom is given a repeat instead of after Odd Couple? WHAT?! Y'know what? I've got a name for this season? The Musical Chairs Season. Nothing but shows moving this way, that way, and every way!

Spot said...

CBS is mad. MAD, I tell ya.

Spot said...

I would get rushing Men if they were say giving The Odd Couple a premiere post AFC Championship game, but this is just crazy.

Spot said...

And speaking of CBS, the Eye has pulled programming from Dish Network...uh-oh.

Spot said...

I understand CBS' odd logic about this scheduling. Mom is clearly a bottom-of-the-hour show, and ABC and NBC will have heavy hitters in the slot. So take your best repeater to kick off the hour. Then viewers are more likely to stick around for the 9:30 show so they aren't dropped into the back-half of an hour-long drama. Making Mom an anchor carries the risk of even more audience fleeing.

Am I a fan of it? No. But that's most likely how CBS is thinking. The network's other thought is, "We are paying millions of dollars for a 22 minute show; damned if we aren't going to ring every last drop out of it."

Spot said...

My guess is this will be resolved in time for Sunday football.

Spot said...

What's leading out of it by the way?

Spot said...

I think it's 16 episodes. By the end of this year there will be 8 episodes, aired, and 19th February is 7th week in 2015 = 6x1 +1x2 = 8 more.

Spot said...

I understand CBS schedule too, and I would do exactly same with this inventory.
But I think what people find odd (and I find it odd too) : If they've known their inventory (and they did), why did they air originals on Thanskgiving, against Petar Pan, and maybe they will in whatever other unfavorable situation comes around? They already had cancelled The Millers, and capped The McCarthys at 15 episodes, and they knew TAAHM is 16 episodes.

They could avoid all of this mess by just double pumping Mom on some weeks in spring. It seems they think TBBT repeat is better lead-in to Mom than Mom itself would be. Sad thing being they're probably right about it.

Spot said...

Elementary? To keep tradition.

Just kidding. I guess they will pick Scorpion as the least old skewing among new dramas.

Spot said...

This is good news for CSI: Cyber. Duh. Massive timeslot improvement.

This is kinda good news for Battle Creek. Sunday 10 PM in season is surely better than any summer timeslot. It's "full cost" drama, not a cheap summer drama, and airing during summer would simply be burn off. Though, Sunday 10 PM isn't be much better, even with football season over.

This is bad news for Stalker, but nobody cares. Saturday burn off is now likely, but It still could return to schedule if either of above mentioned midseason newbies would flop.

Spot said...

I agree it will be 16. By the way, could you figure out the scheduling for the episodes of all comedies? By my calculations, I have no room for the 15th episode of The McCarthys and I can only fit in 11 episodes of Odd Couple within the season, unless they air two of them at 9pm, which should be an option since repeats are airing there.

Spot said...

Ahah. Scorpion would also be my choice anyway, but who knows, with CBS's strange scheduling this year!

Spot said...

The episode orders for the shows are strange though:

- Cyber has room only for 10 episodes on Wednesday. Why they scheduled the doveskeepers on Wednesdays and not mondays (where scorpion and LA will be forced to air a lot of repeats is beyond me)
- Battle Creek will only have room for 12 episodes on Sundays, unless they do a two hour season finale, which I imagine it's possible (and this assumes it airs on Easter Sunday).



Speaking of Sundays, care to venture a guess about CBS's plans for it? They are issuing press releases saying how Sundays at 8 and Sundays at 9 will be hours full of year round programming due to the mentalist and undercover boss fill ins, but they won't be according with my calculations. From 18/01 (including) until 22/02 (including), the only show I expect to see airing on CBS is CSI and even that should be for just 2 or 3 episodes. It's very weird why they are forcing MS/TGW to come back just for two weeks in January instead of bringing them back on 22/02 and just run them straight through IMO.

Spot said...

CBS will barely repeat Criminal Minds this year actually! It's been all originals so far and it didn't air on week 1 since it was Survivor/Big Brother combo. It also won't air:
- 17/12: Survivor fall finale
- 24/12 and 31/12: Christmas hiatus
- 07/01: People's Choice Awards
- 18/02: The Mentalist two hour season finale
- 25/02: Survivor/TAR combo
- 01/04: The Doveleepers
- 20/05: presumably, Survivor season finale

This means it would air only ONE repeat the entire season excluding the two Christmas weeks. It's crazy, but good job on that CBS (though I think the Dovekeepers on Mondays would have made more sense since Scorpion and LA will have to repeat A LOT).

Meanwhile, Cyber won't have enough time to air all of its order. It can only air 10 episodes as far as I can tell since it will have to be preempted for the Doveskeepers and also for the Survivor finale (assuming it is on Wednesdays again, which it should or else they just have the same problem on Sundays with Battle Creek anyway)

Spot said...

Maybe there's only 1 week of Thursday March Madness on CBS. Like Chris said few days ago, they're moving those game around channels every year, so maybe CBS airs only 1 primetime Thursday game. That + 1-hour finale on 05/14 = 13 episodes. I'm not saying it is so, I'm merely saying what could be their plan.

There's no room for The McCarthys 15th episode, true. But if it drops to low 1s in January, it will be replaced by Mom repeats. So, let's cross that bridge...

Spot said...

Maybe yeah, that would solve it. But I gotta say, if that is true, airing the lineup against thanksgiving low viewing levels and against peter pan live made even less sense.

Spot said...

Cyber: I guess then it has less than 13 episodes. It really isn't important if 1st season consists of 10 or 13 episodes. Because their primary goal is to get 88+ episodes from this show, and either way they need 4+ more seasons to achieve it. And their other goal is to keep Patricia Arquette linked to CBS. For which number of episodes in this season isn't important, too.

Battle Creek: Yes, 2-hours finale, and everything fits.

The Dovekeepers on Tue/Wed: Only those two lineups are not once preempted for sports in all 35 weeks of the regular season. So there's already higher number of repeats Tue/Wed than there's on the other nights, and putting Dovekeepers elsewhere would only increase that difference.

Sundays in January/February: Perhaps they're airing originals on Sundays only when they're having late afternoon NFL playoff game. But I'm too lazy to google it. And they're surely avoiding big events on other networks, so probably there's no possibility to have 2 original episodes in a row between 18/01 and 22/02, and they don't want 1 odd original airing between 2 repeats. CSI is exception because it lost some airings due to football overruns.

Spot said...

I don't think they have announced it, but I think Scorpion is the best/most likely choice. Newbies McCarthy's and Stalker are dead shows watching. I'm doubtful NCIS: NO could attract any new viewers out of NCIS. Madam Secretary already gets part of the NFL halo every other week. I feel like Scorpion has the most to gain

Spot said...

Yeah, it's already resolved...false alarm I guess.

Spot said...

I agree with all but the dovekeepers. Wednesdays won't have sports overruns but it will have a number of other stuff airing there during the whole season. In fact, Criminal Minds will only air one single repeat during the whole season other than the 2 standard weeks of christmas holidays. That is crazy to me! Scorpion and LA will have to air a lot of repeats in the meantime. But it's a small point anyway

Spot said...

Yeah I agree. It's also the youngest skewing show and most male one as well so it all fits.

Spot said...

Huh, I wasn't aware their Wednesdays are so repeat free.
Then The Dovekeepers on Mon/Tue would make more sense. Maybe they were afraid of The Voice. For sure Voice overlaps more with it, than genre shows on ABC/CW, and low rated comedies on other two networks.

Spot said...

I am not sure CBS actively planned to have Wednesdays be this repeat free but the fact is that it will be almost 100% originals the entire year!

The 9pm hour preemptions are:
- Opening Wednesday: Survivor/Big Brother combo
- This week: double survivor episode
- 17/12: Survivor fall finale
- 07/01: People's Choice Awards
- 18/02: The Mentalist two hour season finale
- 25/02: Survivor/TAR combo
- 01/04: The Doveleepers
- 20/05: presumably, Survivor season finale

That's 8 preemptions!

Moreover, the 8pm hour will be originals the entire year due the mentalist fill-in and so will the 10pm due to the stalker+cyber timesharing. Due to all these originals, they are certain to win the day against ABC who will suffer from the normal number of repeats.

Spot said...

Thanks.

Spot said...

Maybe they're planning something crazy like:
Tue 8 PM: Black-ish / Cristela
Wed 9 PM: Modern Family / Fresh off the Boat
Fri 8 PM: Last Man Standing doubled

Or

Tue 8 PM: The Middle / Cristela
Wed 8 PM: Goldbergs / Fresh off the Boat
Fri 8 PM: Last Man Standing doubled

I mean, that's risking much for probably no gain, if not for loss. But those crazy schedules would allow them to gauge strength of their comedies the best. And, it would allow Beyond the Tank to premiere on Friday 8 PM in March. Which is my pet idea, but ABC now (after Cristela back order) needs to do some crazy schedule to make it happen.

Spot said...

Maybe they should do CSI... It would probably help finance the money they are probably losing on episodes. (Not a serious suggestion, but if they could get someone like William Peterson of Marg Helgenberger to guest star again it could be a big draw)

Spot said...

I really hope they aren't doing something crazy like that. I see no benefit at all from messing with those shows and I certainly don't think Cristela has done anywhere nearly enough to warrant move to another day.

Spot said...

True. I think their actual plan is Beyond the Tank at 8 PM in late February, and no real scheduling of that hour until then. Let's count 8 PM hour backwards:
05/19 = DWTS clips show leading into 2-hours DWTS cycle finale
05/12 = 2-hours SHIELD season finale
05/05 = Marvel Special leading into SHIELD Avengers episode
02/24 to 04/28 = 10 episodes of Beyond the Tank

That leaves them only 7 weeks of 8 PM to schedule, out of which 2 are already known: 2-hours Agent Carter premiere, and State of The Union. I think they will populate remaining 5 hours with combination of The Bachelor specials, and Shark Tank repeats.

For 10 PM I think they plan to cancel Forever after episode #16, and premiere The Whispers at 02/17. Thus Whispers season finale (it has 13 episodes, I assume) would be synchronized with SHIELD finale.

Spot said...

I've argued for that plan before multiple times, exactly. But I think Beyond the Tank would premiere the same night as Shield and The Whispers. Basically, I see ABC promoting a super new Tuesday when Shield returns. The orders would also fit.

I think everything premieres 03/03. They can do Beyond the Tank-Shield-The Whispers for 10 weeks, until 05/05. The week after, two hour Shield finale. On 19/05, it is DWTS finale, yes. This assumes The Whispers would air 11 episodes, which I think is more likely (the other midseason dramas from ABC also have 10 and 11 episodes order and this would allow it to be synchronized with Shield).

As for Forever, this would allow it to air 20 episodes, which is close enough to what is being called a full season. Apparently, Stalker only had an order for 20 as well despite the press releases of a full season ordered. Maybe the same holds true for Forever. If not, ABC can always burn off the remaining two in a Sunday during event season or even at 8pm during the Carter weeks.

Spot said...

I argued against that plan, because natural place for Beyond the Tank is at Friday 8 PM. Plus, that Friday comedy block is, from its very beginning, doing more harm than good.
I'm merely saying I think ABC will go that route, in a desperate try to help SHIELD with more male oriented BtT lead-in.

Agent Carter will probably do better than SHIELD (not awful, but certainly bellow expectations) ratings, so why not launch The Whispers out of stronger lead-in? Bonus is Whispers wouldn't spill it into summer. Anyway, I expect ABC to wait and see Carter ratings, then depending on it, them to go with your plan (03/03) or with my plan (02/17). I mean, I can not see them premiering it at any other than those 2 dates.

As for Forever, I really don't care where they would air remaining episodes of that flop. As it's ABC, I'd expect they release it only on abc site and/or Hulu. Not Saturday like CBS, or Friday like Fox, or summer like CW.

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