Friday, December 19, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 12/18/14

  • FINALS UPDATE: With Thursday Night Football hitting a runaway season low (just a 1.6 on NFL Network) in two small markets, adjustments were minimal. Only Elementary (1.3) and the 8:00 Bones repeat adjusted down. That meant Mom (2.3) finished at a noticeable 0.3 points higher than its last episode after a repeat two weeks ago.
  • Pending preemptions, CBS' Mom (2.3) and Two and a Half Men (1.9) took hits with a repeat lead-in from The Big Bang Theory (2.3), while The McCarthys (1.6) and Elementary (1.4) were even. These numbers may adjust down a bit due to a Jacksonville football preemption.
  • These numbers came against virtually no competition on the other networks. NBC saw The Biggest Loser (0.9) get into truly disastrous territory, and it led into an unwatched new awards show called the People Magazine Awards (0.8). But somehow that combo was still enough for second place against ABC with The Taste (0.8) and Fox with Bones repeats (0.8 pending a preemption). Compared to these stinkers, the CW looked like a winner with the iHeartRadio Jingle Ball special (0.6), up a tenth year-to-year.
  • Programming note: I won't be doing updates based on preliminary ratings for the next two weeks, but I'll have a few roundup posts as the finals trickle in. Happy holidays!


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Taste 0.8 33% +0%+0.0n/a 2/3 n/a -3% -48% 1.0
How To Get Away With Murder (R) 0.6 30% +9% -57% 1.1
The Big Bang Theory (R) 2.3 28% -41% -18% 2.4
Mom 2.3 29% -12%-0.3-1.6 5/8 +21% -12% +35% 2.2
Two and a Half Men 1.9 27% -17%-0.4-0.3 6/8 n/a -17% +46% 1.8
The McCarthys 1.6 29% +0%+0.0-0.4 2/8 n/a +0% +23% 1.6
Elementary 1.3 22% -7%-0.1+0.0 2/8 n/a -4% +44% 1.6
The Biggest Loser 0.9 29% -18%-0.2n/a 13/13 -55% -18% -25% 1.1
People Magazine Awards 0.8 27% n/a -11% -53% 1.1
Bones (R) 0.7 26% -42% -59% 1.0
Bones (R) 0.8 28% -6% -53% 1.1
iHeartRadio Jingle Ball 0.6 41% +20% -18% +157% 0.7
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.4 47% -20% +33% 0.4

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I understand no prelims for the rest of the year, but I realized there is a larger than usual amount of originals in the next 2 weeks. December 21st and 28th we have original 60 Minutes, Undercover Boss, The Mentalist, and CSI. December 22nd has new Mike & Molly, The Great Christmas Light Fight, and State of Affairs. And I believe just Mike & Molly is new on the 29th.
Does anyone know if CBS is running New Years originals?

Spot said...

No. CBS Thursday returns January 8th. But NBC has Biggest Loser, and I believe Bad Judge and A to Z on New Year's, because...why not? I definitely know Parenthood returns on the 8th.

Spot said...

That's kinda funny because Parenthood is the one that aired on New Year's 2013

Spot said...

At the start of the season, I said that I could see a major collapse for TBL, potentially to Parks and Rec levels, because of the negative publicity from the end of the last cycle. Quite a few of you didn't see that coming - and I was the first to admit I predicted it more in anti-fan hope than genuine expectation - but wouldn't you know it, the show is down more than a third y2y, and within a tick of Parks' raw numbers last season (and below the first five of that show even in Plus). I can't see how it's renewable at those levels, however desperate for cheap depth NBC might still be.

It's worth emphasising just how bad the TNF matchup was this week - two 2-12 teams, neither of whom even had the #1 draft pick in their own hands! (The 2-12 Buccaneers will probably hold on if they lose out, thanks to their inept NFC South competition dragging down their strength of schedule.)

Spot said...

I don't think it's just down to the negative publicity, although it didn't help. I think it's down to moving it against a ton of competition (especially Grey's Anatomy) and losing Jillian Michaels.

I still think NBC will renew it, though. It must cost them next-to-nothing to make and there's a ton of product placement. Push it into summer, perhaps?

Spot said...

It takes multiple factors to go -34% y2y, certainly - we've already seen the Jillian Michaels effect in recent cycles with and without her, and Grey's/TBBT made for tricky competitors. (Furthermore, going up against TNF will have, to put it mildly, limited the benefit of the "retired athletes" theme for this cycle.)

Spot said...

I argued the negative reaction would be meaningless, but I was clearly wrong. I mean the 2 hour season premiere with no scripted of reality competition only managed a 1.5, and it never went below a 1.7 last season. I can't see it not returning in some form though. I won't be on the fall schedule, but it may be a midseason replacement or even pushed to summer, but it will return at least one more time

Spot said...

I agree it will return simply because it's cheap, but I can't imagine how low its ratings would go in the summer.

Spot said...

NBC has moved up Constantine to 8pm after the Christmas hiatus.

I wonder why they would bother if it truly was a dead show walking. I am not saying it will be renewed, but I don't buy into the notion that a show is necessarily cancelled if no back 9 is ordered.

Spot said...

It's cancelled *and* back 9 were not ordered for the same reason: Those sub 1.0 ratings bring in less than $1.5 million per episode, and it costs something like $3.5 million per episode to produce it. Then, I guess, NBC pays it at least $1.8 million per episode to pay it.

Thus I would formulate it this way: No back 9 ordered is a symptom of sure cancellation, and not being a cause of it. Just semantics.

Spot said...

Every network has some show(s) that took one for the team this season.
On The CW it's The Originals, on Fox Bones (again) and Hell's Kitchen (not timeslot downgrade but overexposure). On CBS that's The Amazing Race, CSI and Undercover Boss. On ABC, to some extent, Shark Tank and SHIELD with getting not compatible and weak lead-ins, as they have no room for comedy blocks on female nights (Thu / Sun), and Monday (DWTS is immovable object with its 2-hours length).

On NBC it was The Biggest Loser, and in February it will be The Blacklist. Yes, I expected TBL down only 20% y2y, and it's something like 35% already. But I think the real problem is here : While other networks gained something with sacrificing a piece, TBL collapse is only highlighted by NBC awful choice of new shows, and nonsensical scheduling. NBC has nothing to show that would justify any of their scheduling move / picking new show this season.

Spot said...

That's a bit extreme. What could NBC have scheduled on Thursday that would do better than TBL has done this fall?

Spot said...

By "nonsensical scheduling" I referred to NBC schedule in its entirety. It was OK to move TBL to Thursday, as they should put some reality show at Thursday 8 PM anyway. But they freed up an hour on Tuesday with moving TBL, for what? For comedies that even a blind man could see would flop. They moved Blacklist to Thursday, to make room for what? State of Affairs, another flop. They should move The Blacklist, but... to less tough Wednesday night + they should give The Voice lead-in to some show better than SofA + they should premiere that "something" in September (after most watched The Voice episodes) to give it a more fair chance of survival.

For other networks there's different narrative, CW used move of The Originals from Tuesday 8 PM to launch megahit The Flash in that timeslot. Some CBS veterans were hurt by scheduling, but they got two 2.0+ rated rookie dramas, plus Mom and Madam Secretary are doing well. ABC fixed Wednesday 9:30 PM and Thursday 8 PM, and that compensates for some disappointments. It masks those, if you want so.

NBC has nothing to show. And already in May it was pretty clear what's gonna happen. I mean, already when Greenblatt presented his stupid schedule before upfronts.

Spot said...

I completely agree with everything.

I have said a lot of the same things regarding the NBC schedule over at TVBTN.

The Blacklist should have moved to Wednesday and started there premier week. A new broad procedural drama (similar to Chicago Fire) should have been placed on Monday.

Chicago PD should have been given the Tuesday 9pm slot so that it could grow in a similar fashion that CF grew in it's second season.

So many things could have and should have been done differently.

As far as Thursday, NBC had the right idea to use the Super Bowl advertising platform to relaunch the night, but they should have gone in a different direction than an all drama lineup that is pretty much doomed from the start.

I would have rather seen reality and game shows on the night since those did well last season.

Spot said...

Or it could also be done to see how a drama at 8 would fare. It's clear Grimm won't create a hit show after Dracula and Constantine got canceled (And yes, Constantine is dead as a doorknob), and Hannibal only renewed because it's a cheap coproduction. ABC did that last year with SHIELD airing at 9 once to see how it would fare in that timeslot, and here we are now.

And to the belief that a show isn't canceled if it doesn't get a back 9, when was the last show that was renewed that premiered either fall and/or late fall that didn't get some sort of extension to the episode count? From what I've seen the last one was Simon & Simon which was in 1981-82. That was over 30 years ago. Or even a show that got renewed with less than the back 9. The last one was 30 Rock and that one only had 21 episodes and ended in the last week of April, which is very close to the finale week mind you.

Spot said...

If I'm not mistaken, Nashville had 21 for its first season too.

But you're right, even for Stalker, which has 20, early ending = cancelation.

Spot said...

You are right on that. Apologies. But still, Nashville ended on finale week, so...

Spot said...

I am well aware of all the precedent, yes. And I've been the one explaining to people exactly that numerous times. In a case like, say, Red Band Society in which the ratings are beyond awful (55% of network average on a weekday) and in which the show is even pulled it is obviously a cancellation. But in a case like Constantine (63% of network average but on a Friday) and which the show is still airing its order I am not sure I like the "there is no precedent argument" enough to buy it. I find it especially strange since it is coming from a network that a few weeks earlier announced the cancellation of A to Z and Bad Judge (both of which still got to air the remaining of the orders) so it feels somehow odd that they would truly feel the need to come out and claim that Constantine was not cancelled and remained in contention. What would explain such different philosophies? If it was the same situation, why not just come out and straight out say it was cancelled as well?

Please don't misunderstand me in terms of predictions. I still say Constantine is likely to be cancelled but I dispute the notion that the show is cancelled. I think the precedent argument only gets you so far and it's a case of chicken and the egg. In most cases, I actually believe shows do remain in contention but they continue to perform poorly during the rest of their 13 episode orders so networks always opt for the choice of not bringing them back. But I feel like it's just a matter of time before one of these days there is a bubble show to which networks don't give a backorder but which ends up doing better than the replacement and networks decide to renew it instead of trying a newbie. Constantine may not be that show but I think it will happen sooner or later and Constantine does qualify for the case I was describing.

Regarding the thing of trying out a new drama at 8, well, I am not sure what much input they could gather from whatever it is that a cancellation worthy show could do there. The Shield example is different to me because they were trying to see how Shield would do in the 9pm slot, not some other drama. Maybe you're right and that's the rationale... But to me it still feels more likely that NBC is trying out Constantine there to see if by some reason (high DVR that they are trying to fuel into live viewing?) it pops. However, the most likely outcome is that it does not pop and still remains cancellation worthy, which would obviously prevent me from proving my point that it is still indeed up for consideration at this point, so I guess we have to agree to disagree anyway!

Spot said...

There is also Revolution which had 20. But I think the point you are trying to make should be phrased as shows which had an initial full season order.

But the whole "if it ends before finale week or May sweeps" it's doomed it's also a very flawed argument for me and we have counter examples for that actually. The Neighbors, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Following, The Carrie Diaries are all examples of shows that ended before May Sweeps in their inaugural seasons and got renewed.

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